Plainfield North @ Fenwick
- Thread starter SKing9898
- Start date
It would be hard for me to believe that Fenwick has any more size than Auburn. Those guys were huge! I will take an educated guess and say North will win. I think their offense has more success v. the Fenwick defense than Fenwick's offense will have against North's defense. Like I said, only an educated guess. Should be a good one on Saturday.
Plainfield North's one claim to fame was their victory over Bradley-Bourbonnais, which was indeed very impressive. Still, I look at their conference and I look at Fenwick's conference, and the nonconference teams Fenwick played, and I have to conclude Fenwick will win the game. The level of confidence is not high though.
Ya... the only teams Fenwick has played are two possible state champions(Loyola, Phillips) and three defending(Loyola, Phillips, Montini), 4 playoff teams, Provi who you can easily make the argument should have been a good playoff team, and "the best defense in 7A(Lake Zurich).
Here is what I'm looking at. When including the playoffs, Plainfield North has played a schedule that includes teams that have made the semifinals over the last five years a total of one time. That would be Bradley-Bourbonnais.
Fenwick has played a schedule that includes teams that have made the semifinals over the last five years a total of at least 13 times. That would be Montini 5 times, Loyola (8A) 4 times, Lake Zurich 3 times, and Providence 1 time. That leads me to conclude Fenwick has played a tougher schedule and has incurred one less loss than Plainfield North while doing so. I tend to think class transcends form, and that is why Fenwick is my pick.
Having stated all of the above, I am aware of how well Plainfield North has been playing throughout the playoffs and therefore my level of confidence in Fenwick is not that high. I would make them a 3-point favorite with a 60% chance of winning the game.
My view is different than the two most prominent computer rating services. Freeman has Plainfield North a 5-1/2 point favorite. And I think Massey has Plainfield North something like a 5 point favorite.
It has the potential to be a great high school football game.
Fenwick has played a schedule that includes teams that have made the semifinals over the last five years a total of at least 13 times. That would be Montini 5 times, Loyola (8A) 4 times, Lake Zurich 3 times, and Providence 1 time. That leads me to conclude Fenwick has played a tougher schedule and has incurred one less loss than Plainfield North while doing so. I tend to think class transcends form, and that is why Fenwick is my pick.
Having stated all of the above, I am aware of how well Plainfield North has been playing throughout the playoffs and therefore my level of confidence in Fenwick is not that high. I would make them a 3-point favorite with a 60% chance of winning the game.
My view is different than the two most prominent computer rating services. Freeman has Plainfield North a 5-1/2 point favorite. And I think Massey has Plainfield North something like a 5 point favorite.
It has the potential to be a great high school football game.
My only issue with that analysis is that prior years having nothing to do with the current year. For example, Bradley made a semi final in the previous year but both Oswego schools were much better teams this year. Again, I couldn't have been less impressed with Bradley. North is a very good team, but when they jumped on Bradley 35-0 before Bradley could manage a first down, that tells me you aren't as good as advertised.
I understand your thinking. Although I might disagree to an extent when you say prior years having "nothing" to do with the current year (because some programs are good year after year), certainly things do change from one year to the next. I am very curious to see what the outcome of the game will be.
Although it won't change anyone's thinking, just to be accurate Fenwick's schedule has produced a total of 16 semifinal appearances, not 13. I did not previously include Phillip's two appearances (admittedly at the 4A level) and St. Francis' one appearance (admittedly a 1-8 team this year; which adds weight to your view about things changing year to year). Also I double checked Massey's predictor service and they have Plainfield North winning by a predicted score of 30 to 24.
It'll be fun, after watching film Plainfield North is much better than I gave them credit for on this board. It will be a tough matchup for sure. I'm surprised you think their schedule is tougher than Fenwick's but it's all in the eye of the beholder.
Perhaps but I'd definitely take those two over most of the teams on North's schedule. It doesn't really matter though at this point. You're entitled to your opinion and while I don't agree I can certainly see why you think that way.
What was Fenwick's record against those teams? I would also be more curious to hear what their record was in those 7 games against Loyola and LZ. I don't really care what Fenwick does against 5A-6A schools.
After doing some research, here is what Fenwick has done against those teams you mentioned in the last 5 years:
They went 3-7 against those teams mentioned. They played them 10 times, not 13.
They played Montini 3 times and went 1-2, with their only win coming this year while Montini had a sub par year.
They played loyola 4 times in the last 5 years, going 0-4 with none of the scores very close.
They played Lake Zurich this year in the playoffs and won by 6. They didn't play them any other time in the last 5 years, unlike the 3 times you mentioned.
They played Providence Catholic twice, beating them this year by one score while they are having a down year. They lost the only other matchup in the last 5 years.
SOURCE: Maxpreps
I do think Fenwick is a great team and will be a tough matchup for PN.
Edit: Phillips beat Fenwick 40-16 last year and lost 34-26 this year in week 1. Decent win this year but bad loss to a 4A school last year for Fenwick.
Last edited:
Don't forget that Fenwick beat a LZ team that was missing perhaps their best defensive player with Mono and their coaching staff. PN has some very talented players and a yuge chip on their shoulder. going to be much closer than anyone thinks.
who both teams played in past years is irrelevant (as mentioned by others).
who both teams played in past years is irrelevant (as mentioned by others).
I appreciate your research, but we are talking about different things. Using Lake Zurich as an example, I was not claiming that Fenwick had played Lake Zurich three times in the last five years. I was claiming Fenwick had played Lake Zurich this year, and that Lake Zurich as a football program had appeared in the playoff semifinals three times in the previous five years.
My approach is a rudimentary method for evaluating schedule strength. There seems to be some consistency in the performance of football programs over time, and therefore if a team plays other teams with a demonstrated capacity for winning three or more playoff games (in a single season) consistently, they are probably playing good teams.
To demonstrate the approach has some merit, of the six specific teams I made a reference to on Fenwick's schedule this year, four of them made the round of 16 in this year's playoffs and two, Loyola and Phillips, are still playing this weekend.
Oh ok I see what you are saying. I agree. Fenwick played some perennial powers this year. Not sure if some of those are the best measuring stick for 7-8a schools this year though.
Phillips is not a regular 4A school. I think you are selling those games a bit short. Phillips team last year would have given a lot of the top teams a tough game and plenty of playoff teams in 7A a worse beating. Phillips not quite at the same level this year but I doubt anyone was begging to get them on their schedule.
I love this time of year when people use past results as some kind of indicator on future results.
Interested to see how physical Plainfield North can be. If they can put pressure on the Fenwick Qb and get in his face, that will play a huge part in this game. The Fenwick RB impressed me most as the guy that if PN is going to win that's the guy they need to slow down. The passing game is what it is and the weather will be a factor.
If PN can get in the face of the Fenwick QB and make him uncomfortable, I see this one going PN's way. If not Fenwick moves on.
Interested to see how physical Plainfield North can be. If they can put pressure on the Fenwick Qb and get in his face, that will play a huge part in this game. The Fenwick RB impressed me most as the guy that if PN is going to win that's the guy they need to slow down. The passing game is what it is and the weather will be a factor.
If PN can get in the face of the Fenwick QB and make him uncomfortable, I see this one going PN's way. If not Fenwick moves on.
They are a very good 4a school that can beat a lot of bigger schools. But even the best 4a schools have trouble with upper echelon 7-8a teams.
Your point? Every team in 7A and 8A have trouble with upper echelon 7A and 8A teams. Your original comment seemed pretty demeaning to both Fenwick and/ or 4A. The top 4A teams this year (Phillips, Rochester, Althoff) would likely give the 7A field some tough games.
If you think losing to 4a Phillips 40-16 last year and beating them 34-26 this year is evidence that Fenwick is going to beat PN, then I disagree with you. I apologize if you think that is demeaning.
I'd make the argument that The Phillips defense is frankly more talented than PN defense across the board. However, PN's front 7 plays much better fundamental team football. Also Phillips had many 2-way players which seemed to be a huge advantage to Fenwick, compared to PN only having one upfront.
They had undefeated bradley who beat LWE, beat Rockford Auburn, who beat Reeters. HP was a nice draw for them though.
Fenwick had undoubtedly the easiest road. beating Hononegah, LZ without their coach and best player, and struggled with a very bad jacobs team.
That wind seems like it will definitely be a big factor. I think BB and Auburn thought their size and potent running game would carry them against PN too.
Similar threads
