Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
Plainfield North's one claim to fame was their victory over Bradley-Bourbonnais, which was indeed very impressive. Still, I look at their conference and I look at Fenwick's conference, and the nonconference teams Fenwick played, and I have to conclude Fenwick will win the game. The level of confidence is not high though.High powered offense vs imposing defense... Any thoughts?
The weather forecast for Saturday night certainly favors a strong defense.High powered offense vs imposing defense... Any thoughts?
Ya... the only teams Fenwick has played are two possible state champions(Loyola, Phillips) and three defending(Loyola, Phillips, Montini), 4 playoff teams, Provi who you can easily make the argument should have been a good playoff team, and "the best defense in 7A(Lake Zurich).Oswego and Oswego East are both better than Bradley. I was not impressed with Bradley at all. Plainfield North's schedule included a lot of 8A teams, including 3 playoff teams. I don't see that when I look at Fenwick's schedule.
I understand your thinking. Although I might disagree to an extent when you say prior years having "nothing" to do with the current year (because some programs are good year after year), certainly things do change from one year to the next. I am very curious to see what the outcome of the game will be.My only issue with that analysis is that prior years having nothing to do with the current year. For example, Bradley made a semi final in the previous year but both Oswego schools were much better teams this year. Again, I couldn't have been less impressed with Bradley. North is a very good team, but when they jumped on Bradley 35-0 before Bradley could manage a first down, that tells me you aren't as good as advertised.
Interesting take...Oswego and Oswego East are both better than Bradley. I was not impressed with Bradley at all. Plainfield North's schedule included a lot of 8A teams, including 3 playoff teams. I don't see that when I look at Fenwick's schedule.
It'll be fun, after watching film Plainfield North is much better than I gave them credit for on this board. It will be a tough matchup for sure. I'm surprised you think their schedule is tougher than Fenwick's but it's all in the eye of the beholder.Agree, it should be a good game and I respect your opinion. I think playing teams you don't normally see is what makes the playoffs so great.
Perhaps but I'd definitely take those two over most of the teams on North's schedule. It doesn't really matter though at this point. You're entitled to your opinion and while I don't agree I can certainly see why you think that way.I don't know if it is tougher but North did play much bigger schools (all 7a or 8a). Some of Fenwick's games we're against 3a, 4a and 5a schools. And Montini and Providence were definitely down this year.
Here is what I'm looking at. When including the playoffs, Plainfield North has played a schedule that includes teams that have made the semifinals over the last five years a total of one time. That would be Bradley-Bourbonnais.
Fenwick has played a schedule that includes teams that have made the semifinals over the last five years a total of at least 13 times. That would be Montini 5 times, Loyola (8A) 4 times, Lake Zurich 3 times, and Providence 1 time. That leads me to conclude Fenwick has played a tougher schedule and has incurred one less loss than Plainfield North while doing so. I tend to think class transcends form, and that is why Fenwick is my pick.
Having stated all of the above, I am aware of how well Plainfield North has been playing throughout the playoffs and therefore my level of confidence in Fenwick is not that high. I would make them a 3-point favorite with a 60% chance of winning the game.
My view is different than the two most prominent computer rating services. Freeman has Plainfield North a 5-1/2 point favorite. And I think Massey has Plainfield North something like a 5 point favorite.
It has the potential to be a great high school football game.
I understand your thinking. Although I might disagree to an extent when you say prior years having "nothing" to do with the current year (because some programs are good year after year), certainly things do change from one year to the next. I am very curious to see what the outcome of the game will be.
Although it won't change anyone's thinking, just to be accurate Fenwick's schedule has produced a total of 16 semifinal appearances, not 13. I did not previously include Phillip's two appearances (admittedly at the 4A level) and St. Francis' one appearance (admittedly a 1-8 team this year; which adds weight to your view about things changing year to year). Also I double checked Massey's predictor service and they have Plainfield North winning by a predicted score of 30 to 24.
I appreciate your research, but we are talking about different things. Using Lake Zurich as an example, I was not claiming that Fenwick had played Lake Zurich three times in the last five years. I was claiming Fenwick had played Lake Zurich this year, and that Lake Zurich as a football program had appeared in the playoff semifinals three times in the previous five years.After doing some research, here is what Fenwick has done against those teams you mentioned in the last 5 years:
They went 3-7 against those teams mentioned. They played them 10 times, not 13.
They played Montini 3 times and went 1-2, with their only win coming this year while Montini had a sub par year.
They played loyola 4 times in the last 5 years, going 0-4 with none of the scores very close.
They played Lake Zurich this year in the playoffs and won by 6. They didn't play them any other time in the last 5 years, unlike the 3 times you mentioned.
They played Providence Catholic twice, beating them this year by one score while they are having a down year. They lost the only other matchup in the last 5 years.
SOURCE: Maxpreps
I do think Fenwick is a great team and will be a tough matchup for PN.
I appreciate your research, but we are talking about different things. Using Lake Zurich as an example, I was not claiming that Fenwick had played Lake Zurich three times in the last five years. I was claiming Fenwick had played Lake Zurich this year, and that Lake Zurich as a football program had appeared in the playoff semifinals three times in the previous five years.
My approach is a rudimentary method for evaluating schedule strength. There seems to be some consistency in the performance of football programs over time, and therefore if a team plays other teams with a demonstrated capacity for winning three or more playoff games (in a single season) consistently, they are probably playing good teams.
To demonstrate the approach has some merit, of the six specific teams I made a reference to on Fenwick's schedule this year, four of them made the round of 16 in this year's playoffs and two, Loyola and Phillips, are still playing this weekend.
Phillips is not a regular 4A school. I think you are selling those games a bit short. Phillips team last year would have given a lot of the top teams a tough game and plenty of playoff teams in 7A a worse beating. Phillips not quite at the same level this year but I doubt anyone was begging to get them on their schedule.Edit: Phillips beat Fenwick 40-16 last year and lost 34-26 this year in week 1. Decent win this year but bad loss to a 4A school last year for Fenwick.
Phillips is not a regular 4A school. I think you are selling those games a bit short. Phillips team last year would have given a lot of the top teams a tough game and plenty of playoff teams in 7A a worse beating. Phillips not quite at the same level this year but I doubt anyone was begging to get them on their schedule.
Your point? Every team in 7A and 8A have trouble with upper echelon 7A and 8A teams. Your original comment seemed pretty demeaning to both Fenwick and/ or 4A. The top 4A teams this year (Phillips, Rochester, Althoff) would likely give the 7A field some tough games.
I'd make the argument that The Phillips defense is frankly more talented than PN defense across the board. However, PN's front 7 plays much better fundamental team football. Also Phillips had many 2-way players which seemed to be a huge advantage to Fenwick, compared to PN only having one upfront.
What do you call Plainfield North's road?Plainfield n should win. Fenwick Had an easy road to the semis with a depleted Lz out there. Other than esl and glenbard north 7a is the weakest I can remember.
They had undefeated bradley who beat LWE, beat Rockford Auburn, who beat Reeters. HP was a nice draw for them though.What do you call Plainfield North's road?
Nudo is a very skilled play caller. With the weather being nasty. Fenwicks oline are big and physical, they will carry the day. Moorman and Brendan new(DC) will be ready to go defensively for the Friars. High winds will limit PN big plays. Fenwick 27-13.
Cute spin, LZ with Goldie Hawn coaching would beat Auburn handily.They had undefeated bradley who beat LWE, beat Rockford Auburn, who beat Reeters. HP was a nice draw for them though.
Fenwick had undoubtedly the easiest road. beating Hononegah, LZ without their coach and best player, and struggled with a very bad jacobs team.