Week five was the most straightforward the 618 has had this year but there were still some interesting score differentials and one very surprising upset. Week six should be far more intriguing.
The Southwestern had three matchups that anyone with a pulse saw coming, with none of the contests finishing closer than 41 points. In the Mississippi Valley, all three games went as expected, but were all more competitive than expected. The fact that nobody has been able to clearly distance themselves in the MVC adds to the concern for them come playoff time. Results from down in the South Seven provided the biggest surprises, featuring a shocking upset of Marion by Cahokia.
South Seven
Cahokia(2-3) 14-0 Marion(4-1): Undefeated Marion had scored an average of 37 points entering this matchup and had not been shutout in 83 games(dating back to 2014 playoff loss to undefeated state champion SHG). So what went wrong here? A large part of the problem was three interceptions and one lost fumble. Cahokia also contained the usually high-octane Wildcat offense to just 112 total yards of offense. The Comanche offense also kept the clock rolling most of the day, rushing 46 times to the tune of 309 yards. Correyontae Midgett accounted for 143 of those yards with just 19 rushes. Seemingly, having two weeks to prepare for this game after being forced to forfeit their week 4 game due to a fight during their week 3 matchup may have helped Cahokia build up their game plan.
Marion should rebound next week against Centralia(1-4) whose only win came via forfeit. Even with the upset win, Cahokia still seems like they will be left on the outside looking again come playoff time. Not only has their week 4 forfeit hurt them, the IHSA website now shows they have forfeited the week 3 game the fight occurred during after it was originally recorded as a 54-14 win over Granite City. They now must win a toss-up next week at Mt. Vernon(3-2), week 7 versus Centralia, and steal a game against either Collinsville/O'Fallon just to reach five wins. Cahokia will need to bring their defense consistently to pull that off.
Carbondale(3-2) 49-39 Centralia(1-4): Both teams benefited from forfeit wins in week 4, so they had two weeks of preparation before meeting. Perhaps only the offenses used that extra prep time? This one was still closer than I expected, but I'm more than happy to just pick the winners in this conference. Carbondale, who is a heavy favorite the next two weeks against Granite City and Lighthouse Christian, MO., are a near lock for the postseason with the win. The Terriers are also 3-0 in S7 play, which clinches a share of the conference title. They will need to win week 8 against Marion to take the title outright. On the other side of this one, Centralia's playoff aspirations are on their last legs of life support. The Orphans only win thus far is via forfeit and they yet again will be an underdog against Marion next week. They'll need upsets of Cahokia, Mt. Vernon and Effingham as well to hit 5 wins.
Mt. Vernon(3-2) 28-14 North County, MO(1-4): While the Rams probably should have beat a one win team that had to travel from another state by more, a win is a win. This week, they will host Cahokia(2-3), which is a matchup of teams that I seemingly never can understand fully. These teams have one common foe so far this season: Marion. Cahokia bested the Wildcats 14-0 last week, while Mt. Vernon fell to them 20-14 in week three. This essentially being a must win for Cahokia also points me in their direction, because Mt. Vernon has three easier games remaining on the schedule in their pursuit of five. Cahokia should be a slight favorite here, but I'm not sure anything would surprise me in this one.
Southwestern
East St. Louis(3-2) 54-13 O'Fallon(2-3): In recent years, this game was at least interesting on paper, but the Flyers were a virtual lock in this one. Credit to O'Fallon, they did lead this 10-7 at the end of the first. That's the second slow start in a row for East Side(recall they were 0-0 with Belleville East after one quarter last week). While that isn't quite panic button material, it's at least worth monitoring in their next two games at Belleville West(2-3) and Alton(1-4) that they should win handily. O'Fallon will return home next week against Belleville East(4-1) for what is clearly the game of the week for the conference. It will also be a great test of the projection prowess of Massey Ratings(who says O'Fallon has a 73% chance to win) and Calpreps(who says Belleville East has a 73% chance to win). History shows that O'Fallon has prevailed in their last five meetings with the Lancers, but this is the best performing Belleville East team we've seen in awhile and the worst O'Fallon. What is most concerning for O'Fallon is they have lost three consecutive weeks and have been held to 14 points or less in those losses, so Belleville East should be a mild favorite here.
Other Scores: Edwardsville(5-0) 48-0 Belleville West(2-3), Next vs Alton(1-4) | Belleville East(4-1) 63-16 Alton(1-4), Next at Belleville West(2-3)
Mississippi Valley
Triad(3-2) 28-21 Jersey(2-3): Triad was certainly the likely winner headed into this one, but winning by more than 7 would have been nice to see out of the Knights. This one was apparently 28-0 in their favor with 1:40 left in the second quarter, so this one is hard to make heads or tails of. Is Triad 28 points better and they just let off the gas pedal? Or maybe Jersey figured something out about their opponent? The Panthers outgained the Knights 439 to 382, so this game probably did belong being as close as it was.
In week 6, Jersey will host Waterloo(1-4). Both those teams have found most of their success on the ground, so expect a quick pace of play. Jersey should be the favorite here. Triad's trip to Mascoutah(2-3) stands out as game of the week for the MVC. The more points scored in this one, the more likely the Knights should be to win with their offense averaging north of 35 PPG. Triad borderline needs to win here because this is clearly one of their best two shots left at winning.
Highland(4-1) 38-6 Waterloo(1-4): Highland continued performing as the conference favorite with this final, but they were slow at putting this one away. Their lead was only 14-0 at halftime and Waterloo pulled within 21-6 one play into the fourth quarter. Someone in the MVC needs to step up soon if they want to win a playoff game this year because nobody has looked too impressive. On the more positive side, this was the victor's best showing on the ground this year with 270 rushing yards to just 87 passing. Five different rushers had at least 5 carries in that ground attack.
This Friday, Highland should pick up yards however they'd like over a Civic Memorial(2-3) lineup that has allowed 114 points in their two conference games. If Waterloo can upset Jersey(2-3) this week, their path to five wins is at least somewhat viable but would focus on another upset in week 8 at Mascoutah.
Mascoutah(2-3) 66-34 Civic Memorial(2-3): By the end of the first quarter, Mascoutah already had a score on offense, defense, and special teams. Their point total was also a nice sign after tallying just 78 points in their first four weeks combined. That being said, allowing the Eagles to score 20 points before starting the running clock leaves room to grow(they only scored 12 total in weeks 3 and 4).
This week, Mascoutah's season may very well be defined by what they do against Triad(3-2). With a win, they would be on track to finish second in the MVC and have healthy playoff prospects. However, a loss would drop them to four losses and force them to begin postseason play in week 7. Some breathing room would be nice with solid Jersey and Carbondale squads remaining on the schedule.
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