As we are now 1/3 through the fall, both the Southwestern and Mississippi Valley Conference begin league play this week. Being at this critical point of the season, the analysis this week will be more focused on the postseason prospects rather than last week's results.
Southwestern Conference
East St. Louis(1-2): The Flyers have embarked on the toughest campaign in Illinois thus far, resulting in losses to Mt. Carmel and Atascocita, TX. Even with their two early losses and no opponent scheduled for week 9, East St. Louis should still be expected to join the group of 256 playing in week 10. A week 8 trip to Edwardsville is probably their most likely loss left, but they can even survive that. If they suffer any other upsets it will be this week at home versus Belleville East or next week with O'Fallon, but I don't see anyone knocking off an East St. Louis team playing for their postseason lives if it comes to that.
Edwardsville(3-0): The easiest path to 5 wins for the Tigers is to take care of business against Belleville West in week 5 and Alton in week 6, which they should feel very comfortable with. Outside of those two games, Edwardsville is at worst a toss-up against O'Fallon/Belleville East/De Smet and I see them taking 2 or 3 of those. An upset over East Side would be some serious icing on the cake, but don't held your breath on that.
Belleville East(3-0): Lancer football is off to its best start in a long time. B-East has been reasonably tested so far for an undefeated, recording wins by finals of 24-21, 34-14, and 28-14. "Tested" will have a new definition for them in week 4 however as the pay a visit to an East St. Louis team looking to recover from a crushing defeat in the Lonestar state. Looking through the rest of their schedule, Belleville East should be viewed pretty favorably over Alton/Belleville West/Granite City to push them to at least 6 victories and a spot in the playoffs. Week 6/7 showdowns with O'Fallon/Edwardsville will represent a chance to break into the top-three grouping of the Southwestern Conference that has been stable for several years. Taking at least one of those would likely mean a 7 win season, which may make the difference of having to travel multiple hours for a postseason game.
O'Fallon(2-1): The Panthers are one of four teams in the league that should be present when the IHSA takes its top 256 finishers. Their path to five wins should feature wins against Belleville West/Alton/Cahokia in the final three weeks of the regular season. A six victory is well within reach when they host Belleville East in week 6, but week 5 is less hopeful since they will travel to the City of Champions(East STL). The biggest question mark left for them is what happens this Friday when they host Edwardsville, where I would give the Tigers a slight edge. Not to be overlooked is the fact that this will be their first meeting since the Panthers were screwed last postseason by a a three down "turnover on downs" during what would've likely been a game winning drive versus the Tigers.
Alton(1-2): An upset of 5A Triad last week put the Redbirds a win ahead of schedule after only defeating winless Belleville West during their last two seasons. Even if they take care of business with their manageable matchups versus Belleville West and Mt. Vernon, the Redbirds would need two more jaw-dropping upsets in their conference play to reach five wins.
Belleville West(1-2): The high of their week 1 knockoff of Mascoutah to end a 2+ season winning drought has worn off after losing back to back games by 24+. A chance to .500 awaits this weekend when they pay a visit to Alton, a rivalry that the Redbirds have a multi-game winning streak for. After that, a week 9 visit to the Hickman, MO Kewpies is the only game the Maroons have a strong chance at victory.
Mississippi Valley Conference
Highland(2-1): With a 28-0 loss to Mahomet-Seymour as their lone blemish, things are shaping up very nicely for the Bulldogs to show up in the 4A/5A brackets once again this fall. Highland, at the moment, should figure as a favorite for all six games remaining on their schedule, including Civic Memorial and Jersey who should move their win total to 4 fairly easily. Waterloo and St. Teresa are also two games Highland can enter as clear favorites based on what I've seen as well. The big circles on their remaining schedule is this Friday's visit to Mascoutah and then a week 7 visit to Triad. For those who do not recall, Highland stomped Mascoutah 56-0 in the regular season and Mascoutah shocked them three weeks later with a 55-42 upset in the playoffs. That thirst for revenge + a better resume so far makes Mascoutah the favorite for me, but only slightly since the rest of the MVC tends to struggle when visiting the Indians. Triad is another interesting matchup based on the rivalry alone. The Bulldogs have played more impressively so far, but rivalry games are tricky.
Mascoutah(1-2): Nobody else in the MVC feels like too safe a bet, but Mascoutah seems to have the next best path. Their week nine non-conference bout, Carbondale, is winnable. If they win that and take down Civic Memorial + Jersey as it seems likely, they still need to take one from Highland/Waterloo/Triad(a trio they went 0-3 against last fall). The big difference this time around is all three of those teams must come to Mascoutah where the Indians seem to have another gear. Where it gets messy is the MVC has four 1-2 teams(Mascoutah, Waterloo, Triad and Jersey) that are going to scratch and claw at each other to keep their paths to 5 alive. Still, I like the Indians chances to break through the blood rounds.
Triad(1-2): Their loss to Alton last week brought Triad from a strong playoff contender more into the tossup category. Their week nine opponent, Collinsville, is the toughest non-conference left for any MVC squad and is probably not a game they want to wait for to reach the magical number 5. Keeping the assumption rolling that Jersey and Civic Memorial are the leagues weakest, the Knights still need to find two more wins. I like how they matchup against Waterloo this Friday, but that still leaves them needing to take down Mascoutah/Highland. Mascoutah probably is the safer bet of the two.
Waterloo(1-2): Just like for Triad, their game this week is a key chance on the Bulldogs schedule. If the Bulldogs win there, the easiest path to five is to knock off Civic Memorial/Jersey and claim one more win over Freeburg in the regular season finale. Waterloo has been somewhat inconsistent this year, but a win over Highland or Mascoutah would not totally surprise.
Jersey(1-2): The Panthers should plan on defeating Civic Memorial this Friday and currently 0-3 Columbia in week 9. Putting points on the board has been the chief struggle thus far for Jersey, so slugging out wins over Waterloo/Mascoutah(the MVC's next lowest scorers) in low scoring affairs seems their best hope to surprise with a postseason appearance.
Civic Memorial(2-1): Despite being one of two league team's with a winning record, the Eagles seem likely to be left on the outside looking in. Their wins so far are over small schools Marquette Catholic and East Alton-Wood River. Last week, they suffered a blowout to Roxana. The rest of the season, Civic Memorial seems like an underdog but Taylorville and Jersey are their best shots at a win.
edgytim.rivals.com
edgytim.rivals.com
