Everybody likes to talk about the effect on the big schools. Districts would have a more interesting effect on some smaller schools. Let use the Kankakee area as a decent region of variety, 15 very different schools.
Current Kankakee area football schools (approx. enrollment):
Bradley 7A 2100
Kankakee 5A 1200
Manteno 4A 650 I-8
Coal City 4A 630 I-8
Herscher 4A 590 I-8
Bishop McNamara 3A mult. 530
Peotone 3A 530 I-8
Reed Custer 3A 500 I-8
Wilmington 3A 480 I-8
Dwight 3A 300 coop GSW 180
Watseka 3A 300 coop St. Anne 200
Momence 2A 350
Clifton Central 2A 330
Iroquois West 2A 280
Milford 1A 130 coop Cissna Park 100
Bradley's 7A issues are very different than Milford's 1A issues. Bradley does not have to worry about conference opponents closing, or consolidating, or coop issues. Milford consolidated with Sheldon not too long ago, and has been cooping with CP for a few years. But they remain a 1A school. Their conference, and some others between Champaign & Danville area, has many schools cooping or planning to do so shortly (whether due to dropping enrollment or player interest depends). 1A schools present a bigger danger than Chicago Public Schools with forfeits or dropping the program affecting the total number of football playing schools.
Sangamon Valley Conference...no longer near the Sangamon Valley...lol. Watseka, IW, Central & Momence have been in and out of conferences together for a long time. Those 4 are geographically logical, and relatively similar enrollments. Paxton has been with them forever...but the PBL consolidation years ago makes PBL a solid 3A team. The departure of Tolono Unity/St.JoeOgden/Monticello/Champaign St. Thomas left PBL as the sole stand-alone 3A school in the conference. Left searching for members, Dwight comes along and abandons the I-8 because of its small/shrinking enrollment. Yet Dwight's long-standing coop with Gardner for football/track/wrestling/cross country leaves them smack in the middle of the I-8 small's enrollment; ten years ago they were almost 600 kids in the coop. And they still can't make the playoffs... And next year Seneca abandons the I-8 for the SVC in football...dropping enrollment is their excuse, going from the smallest I-8 to the second largest non-coop SVC program...
Mixed in the middle of the SVC is the River Valley Conference - the non-football hosting schools in the Kankakee area which Manteno/Herscher/ Peotone left because of football, and Central/Momence/Watseka were members on and off. Gardner coops with Dwight. Watseka has tried coops with a number of SVC members - St. Anne currently, previously with Donovan. Donovan cooped with Tri-Point a few years ago, but Tri-Point has dropped football. Grant Park tried coops with Manteno and Momence in the past. Beecher has 350+ kids, so it has no realistic hope of a coop...nobody wants to jump two classes for the playoffs (which was a problem when Manteno & Peotone cooped in the early 90's).
The I-8 is dissolving after Seneca's departure...the 6 Kankakee area schools seem destined to stay together. Wilmington has a border with the other 5 in the core...incredibly logical geographical conference core. But Lisle seems determined to come along...But if you go districts, there are 3 3A schools and 3 4A schools who would prefer to stay together rather than be put with who knows who or where...
Which brings us to the confounding problem...McNamara. The KVC disbanded in the late 80's and the public schools organized the RVC in order to get rid of Mac...Districts force Mac on the public schools...which might bring Mac to whatever replaces the I-8 in all sports (okay, maybe not...). Mac also has longstanding rivalries with Kankakee & Bradley. The Catholic league has helped Mac to be better than the neighboring 3A & 4A schools in some ways, but the improvement (academically & athletically) of the I-8 schools has cut into Mac's allure. From a fan's perspective, Mac/Herscher is one of the biggest rivalries in the state...Mac/Manteno have never played in football, but would be a huge game...
Kankakee is the edge school...5A...next 5A south brings them to what, the Big 12 Champaign/Danville/Bloomington Normal...The Southland is a nice fit for them with the Rich Township schools...Crete historically fits & geographically fits, but has about 400 more kids than them...a sixth is a problem...Streator???
And Bradley's issues start with a football district which could include the East St. Louis area schools....Not geographically viable.
Forcing shrinking schools who consolidate or coop into football districts with former conference members they left might leave a real bad taste in many mouths...But realistically, a 10 member 3a/4a conference district could be the core 6, plus Mac, Dwight, Watseka & Seneca...a likely disaster...or PBL...or Prairie Central & Pontiac...
Are we completely icky yet...