Not that bad. I would only be 7 wins off your pace with 12 weeks to go. But, it is a weird system they use. They throw out your worst two weeks. For the originally scheduled Monday night game you also have to pick the total number of points scored by both teams. Then at the end they come up with the total actually scored measured against your prediction as a tie breaker. The closer you are to the actual number, the better off you are.
We really aren't gambling because we put no money into it. It is run by a company I do business with. But the winner each week gets free lunch for the business owner and their staff. At the end of the year, the winner gets a $500 check. Second place gets $250 and third place gets $100. It only runs through the season, not into the playoffs.
I would be 7 wins or points behind you if it's wins alone. And with this system I am also 7 points off the lead which includes the tie breaker. This is a more forgiving system.
I don't know how many people are in your group. But, we have about 150. Right now I am tied for 27th place. But a couple good weeks by me and average weeks for the others could put me in the top 10 or 12. It can shift pretty quickly.
You know as well as I do, the key is picking the toss up games correctly more often than not. For instance, everyone will pick Green Bay to beat the Lions. So, you can't pick up ground there.
But who do you pick with Jacksonville at Houston? Or with the way things have gone, IND at CLE? Or even CAR at ATL? This week doesn't seem to have as many close ones as usual. I picked Tampa to beat the Bears. Twenty-four people picked the Bears. Most others picked TB. I don't mind losing the ones others lose. It's the middle ones you gotta win. Good luck to you!