I’d put SF, Providence and RB all ahead of Morris
The 4A Map Just Got REAL Interesting
- Thread starter cigaros
- Start date
Some might say, The Nightmare After Thanksgiving, as a nod to their namesake.
Assuming Macomb and SHG go 4A, Highland stays in 5A, and Morris loses to Sycamore this Friday, here is how I see the top 4 seeds in the South: #1 Carterville, #2 (Macomb or SHG), # 3 (Macomb or SHG), and #4 Rochester. If that holds true, the earliest Rochester and SHG would meet is indeed the semifinal. If Morris does happen to end up in the Southern Bracket in 4A, then either Rochester or SHG will have to deal with them to reach the semifinal. Where they are seeded (in the Carterville/Rochester group of eight or in the SHG/Macomb group of eight) will determine which team has to face them. I think Morris would be a tough opponent for either the Rockets or the Cyclones.
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I agree that Morris is an interesting choice. RB dispatched them rather easily.
I’d put RB in front of SF, Providence, and JCA
I don’t think there’s any other way to state it…RB is the favorite to come out of the north and quite possibly even the favorite to win the 4A crown.
SHG likely has more talent, but RB’s system and ball control on a cold Champaign evening likely enter that title game as the favorite.
SF, Providence, and JC are all contenders to make it to champaign too. But that road goes straight through RB and if the Rockets play their best game, they likely beat anyone in 4A.
Difficult to argue with your thoughts on RB. I would say that even on a "cool" Champaign evening they'd be the favorites IF they can beat JCA, which I see as their most significant threat in the north. I see their toughest opponent in the championship game being Rochester. Maybe not as polished a running system as RB, but this year Rochester has pounded teams with a 250 lb. QB and a 230 lb. running back. And of course, there is the customary Derek Leonard-designed play action pass package to keep defenses guessing.
As far as SHG coming out of the South Bracket is concerned, they are a "finesse" team and are not rugged enough to withstand a punishing running attack from Rochester, much less RB or JCA. The defense appears to be above-average quick, but that is negated if a team like Rochester, RB or JCA simply runs the ball at them rather than around them. Remember that such running attacks are also good at chewing up time, wearing down defenses, and keeping opponents to a minimum of offensive possessions.
Based on the above, I see the Class 4A title gaming being Rochester vs. (JCA or RB).
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I don’t disagree with much of what you said. When the weather turns that’s bad for SHG and it’s interesting that Rochester seems to be built differently this season, at least on the offensive side of the ball.
however, SHG still walloped Rochester by 35 in week 1. I totally get that Derek’s team will improve to close the gap and the weather alone may help close the gap some more. But with that big a differential, I think the best chance for Rochester to get to the final comes if SHG drops down to 3A.
from a narrative perspective, it wouldn’t get much better than the Leonard’s playing back to back on Friday night in Champaign. If SHG does drop to 3a, I really hope JC or PC drop south in 4a to balance the sides a little bit.
Ken said in a post-game interview Friday that he would prefer being in 4A (I assume because of the greater competition) but does not want to face Derek again this year. The "Leonard Bowls" make for interesting talk among fans and sports announcers and writers, but Ken and I assume Derek hate them. They talk every day of the week during the season except the week of the Bowl. I'm thinking Derek would be seriously torn between congratulating his team on the one hand and on the other, knowing his team beat his dad's team in the last game of his career should the Rockets beat the Cyclone this post-season!!
Agree with you on the idea of Leonard-coached back to back title games. Although things won't be finalized until next weekend, I get the feeling that SHG gets pushed up to 4A as one of, if not THE, lowest enrollment schools in that class. That seems to be how it is trending from the little I have heard.
My preference (for the history and uniqueness of it) would be an SHG/Elmhurst IC 3A title game, followed by the 4A title game between Rochester and RB or JCA. But wouldn't you know it: the IHSA has not contacted me yet to find out what I want!
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We heard all of that sentiment right up until the end of the 1st half of a 2019 rain soaked, chilly 5A title game when another Leonard coached team from Central Illinois faced a ball control and “system” based team from the Northern bracket. That Leonard coached team threw for over 300 yards and held the ball control mainstay (now at Ohio state) to 100 yards below his per game average. It’s all about matchups. And right now, only one team matches up well against SHG. And they were routed in game one of the season by SHG.
What makes you think that Rochester matches up better than SF, RB or JCA. JCA and their "system" has matched up pretty well against the Cyclones in the past, beating SHG by an average score of 45-22 in their four previous playoff match ups.
surethose were based on last years enrollments. they are down again thos year and the catholic schools in general are down acrossthe board. it coats over 10k to go to SHG and the wconomy isnt exactly great. if you live in rochester, williamsville, chatham or SHS dist you probably are seriouly looking at those schools
The example I gave was in reference to how the northern bracket has discredited the southern bracket based upon ball control and weather as if The state of Illinois only gets cold above I 80. What makes you think a team coached by not only one, but to Leonards with 13 state championships between them, will not understand how to overcome a ball control system? After all, Richmond Burton tried that in 2011 against a Leonard coach team. Geneseo tried that in 2013 against a Leonard coached team. Johnsburg tried that in 2016 against a Leonard coach team. Morris tried that in 2017 against a Leonard coach team. And finally, Saint Rita tried that in 2019 against a Leonard coached team.
A quote from Rochester post game, “ when they kept the ball from us during that one stretch we were ready to go once we got the ball back. We try to go as fast as possible all the time. Give us the ball and we’re ready to go. “
This concept is very foreign to ball control teams. The only team that has been successful at containing Sacred Heart Griffin was Jacksonville when they went on a nine minute drive. SHG put a clock on them as well.
Why is this a north/south bias thing in your opinion? Nobody is dismissing anybody because of their proximity north or south of interstate 80. Most of us chicagolanders have as much or as little information about all teams outside the city and burbs regardless of their direction. For all practical purposes, there is no difference in our mind from rural outlying RB and rural outlying Rochester.
saw both SHG and RB last season. Both would give JC and most 4a teams fits this year and be a real matchup problem. SHG with their speed and the rallying behind their outgoing coach. RB with their ball control and physicality.
either team could win that matchup. Don’t know much about Rochester other than that they are likely not as talented as SHG. If I am wrong and RB can’t stack up to Rochester or SHG it is not because they are a northern team and I was therefore biased toward them.
I saw both SHG and RB last year and both scared me as potential problems in 2022. If the southern bracket winner is to stifle the northern bracket winner it will have nothing to do with the 2019 Rochester vs Rita game. Just like if the northern winner runs it down the southern winners throat, it will not be because JC started that trend last year against SHG.
it’s a new game with new teams. The perception of biased opinions of others is a bias in and of itself .
It's hard for me to figure out St Francis every year. They play no one in conference so you can't figure them out every year.
Get to where you need to be, the CCL.
I’m trying to remember a time when a favorite in one class was on the bubble and dropped down into a lower classification
I’ll admit i could be slightly off on the details, because I was about 10 at the time, but for some reason this story has stuck with me. It’s kind of the opposite to your question
‘83 season, Sterling was larger 4A school, went 9-0 and i think were AP ranked #1 or 2. When brackets announced, they ended up in 5A, and played round 1 at 9-0 JCA. Think they lost by 4 or 5.
Based on the latest IHSA Playoff Outlook for Class 4A, I think SHG (#2 seed) and Rochester (#3 seed) will be in the same 8-team, South Bracket group. If that is the case, it is very likely that they will meet in a quarterfinal game. The winner would face the quarterfinal winner of the 8-team Carterville (#1 seed) group in the South Bracket semifinal game. If Morris is in the South Bracket, I have them as a likely #4 seed. This would mean a potential quarterfinal game with Carterville.
So, based on the above, the two quarterfinal games in the South Bracket would be: SHG vs. Rochester and Carterville vs. Morris (ASSUMING THE SEEDS HOLD and MORRIS LOSES TO SYCAMORE THIS WEEK). Again, I have this scenario dependent on (1) Morris in the South Bracket; and (2) Morris ending the regular season at 7-2. If they should happen to beat Sycamore this Friday (and thus an 8-1 regular season record), they would be the #3 seed instead of Rochester, which would then be seeded #4 and in the Carterville 8-team group. In this scenario, the quarterfinal games would likely be SHG vs. Morris and Carterville vs. Rochester. In either of these scenarios, I see the key being SHG playing the quarterfinal at home. Either of the two probable quarterfinal games on the road could be problematic for the Cyclones (See P.S. below).
P.S. I don't see playing a quarterfinal on the road at Carterville being problematic for either Morris or Rochester.
Ok, back to my Halloween Horror Film marathon on Peacock!
So, based on the above, the two quarterfinal games in the South Bracket would be: SHG vs. Rochester and Carterville vs. Morris (ASSUMING THE SEEDS HOLD and MORRIS LOSES TO SYCAMORE THIS WEEK). Again, I have this scenario dependent on (1) Morris in the South Bracket; and (2) Morris ending the regular season at 7-2. If they should happen to beat Sycamore this Friday (and thus an 8-1 regular season record), they would be the #3 seed instead of Rochester, which would then be seeded #4 and in the Carterville 8-team group. In this scenario, the quarterfinal games would likely be SHG vs. Morris and Carterville vs. Rochester. In either of these scenarios, I see the key being SHG playing the quarterfinal at home. Either of the two probable quarterfinal games on the road could be problematic for the Cyclones (See P.S. below).
P.S. I don't see playing a quarterfinal on the road at Carterville being problematic for either Morris or Rochester.
Ok, back to my Halloween Horror Film marathon on Peacock!
I remember a bunch of giant bruisers in UPS brown and white at Normal in 1975. SHG didn't open until 1986, but IHSA lists that game as.part of the records of both JCA and SHG.JCA didnt open until 1990
I'm not voicing an opinion again. I did, early in the season, and was informed that JCA was going to run the table and SHG had no hope.
I have not changed my mind and I am content to wait until the evening of November 26. And enjoy every game until then.
All.... Love this time of year. I have mentioned this before. Should SHG and Rochester meet again (regardless of where the game is played) the Rockets are going to have to throw more with success to keep the game close giving them an opportunity to win. My opinion.... they will not have as much success running against the Cyclones as they did in that first game. Thus a conundrum. Throwing into the teeth of that wicked defensive Cycs secondary or burning clock realizing your opponent scores more quickly. Slowing the game down also favors SHG.
QB Reiss is a good quarterback. I have noticed many of his passing plays are set up in that mid range with lots of moving parts to confuse defenses so one of his receivers is pretty open giving him a better chance at a completion. Usually as well with down field blockers turning a shorter gain into a long one. The plays are geared toward Reiss's strength as a thrower. We all know at 250 plus he can get you points running when in close to the goal line,
The SHG offense will of course try and pick on again the Rocket secondary through the air. No one has stopped them this year. And should the weather be awful I like the Cyclones chances on the ground as much. Two explosive backs and another that has paid his dues and is waiting in the wings. If this game happens it should be a fun one. Ratsy
QB Reiss is a good quarterback. I have noticed many of his passing plays are set up in that mid range with lots of moving parts to confuse defenses so one of his receivers is pretty open giving him a better chance at a completion. Usually as well with down field blockers turning a shorter gain into a long one. The plays are geared toward Reiss's strength as a thrower. We all know at 250 plus he can get you points running when in close to the goal line,
The SHG offense will of course try and pick on again the Rocket secondary through the air. No one has stopped them this year. And should the weather be awful I like the Cyclones chances on the ground as much. Two explosive backs and another that has paid his dues and is waiting in the wings. If this game happens it should be a fun one. Ratsy
I always wonder about SHG. They won't be challenged until the state championship game. Will that affect them? I think you have 4 teams in the northern bracket that would be 9-0 playing their schedule. Can you really make the necessary improvements a team makes by being tested when you blow out average/ below average teams? Just wondering we shall see.
There are lessons in losing that you just can't learn in winning.
True. But these are mostly the same kids that got whomped by JCA 11 months ago. Just a year older, a year more experienced, bigger and seemingly faster. And as motivated as any in the State.
Couldn’t have been JC guys saying that SHG had no hope. I think most JC faithful see us as somewhere between the second and fifth most favored team in 4A. Don’t know if anyone has them as the favorite and I think the only ones who did at the start of the season were not JC fans. I really don’t think anyone was super confident JC would run the table.
the only uncertainty is whether most classify RB or SHG as the favorite. After them it’s kind of a hodgepodge of JC, SF, and PC. Maybe Morris and Rochester as dark horses to upset SHG or take advantage if SHG drops down a class.
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are you sure you are not thinking of last year? I dont know any hilltopper fans who thought JCA was going to run the table this year.
In fairness it was not a JCA guy. For a team that SHG has never defeated, the JCA guys are always chill. I
As I've pointed out before. I consider myself a Rochester fan when they are facing anyone other than SHG. That said, I am not at all sure that they are a favorite. They got shellacked by SHG, admittedly it was the opener but it was for both. I also wonder about their game with Chatham. They won but not overwhelmingly. Two weeks later SHG dominated Chstham from the opening whistle - offensively AND defensively. I can't help but think the Rockets are too one-dimensional.
I know some folks think a ground pounding team has some magical November advantage, and maybe they do on a muddy field in pouring rain or driving snow. But late November weather can range from cool and dry and bright to cold and wet and turf is not muddy. If they fall behind and have to.play catch up they are in trouble. That's why I think Highland might be more dangerous than I did. Those boys Can move and throw.
I'm hampered in that I have not seen most of the contenders, even on the small screen. I really think this is in some ways Ken Leonard's most talented team. But I know even more thanost how little that is worth. I'll be frankly surprised if the Cyclones aren't playing the day after Turkey Day. But between weather and officiating I've been surprised before.
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I believe SHG's biggest advantage against Rochester would be playing the game (be it a quarterfinal or semifinal) at Cyclone Stadium; Rochester's biggest advantage against SHG would be playing on the natural, HIGH grass at Rocket Booster Stadium. At present I have them meeting in a South Bracket quarterfinal game, so the location of each team's second round game is important.
My present assumption regarding the 16-team South Bracket is based on (1) Morris being 4A and placed in the South Bracket; (2) Morris losing to Sycamore this week; (3) Carterville beating Harrisburg Friday; and (4) both SHG and Rochester finishing the CS8 season with victories. As I see it, this would result in: #1 seed Carterville and #4 seed Morris in one 8-team group, and #2 seed SHG and #3 seed Rochester in the other 8-team group.
P.S. (1) SHG fans are hoping that the evil ghost of post-seasons past (especially 2004) isn't peeking over the Cyclones' shoulder.
P.S. (2) By hook or crook, the offer is still open to come or be taken to the 🐀's tailgate. I do admit however, that for us who can still ambulate fairly well, the cold still has its fun with us! (There is a nice warm tent available and there is always the option to stay in the car). We do provide catering free of charge to those who wish the comfort of the car heater.
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I just can't get into trying to figure brackets. I'm a horrible pedictor of games outside the CS8. In years of playing the Channel1450 pic 'em, I think I won it exactly ONE week. It'll be official in about 107 hours. I'll wait for then.
I 'd still sooner not meet Rochester again this year. Not that I don't disagree with your analysis. I just don't want to see the Leonards have to face each other again with Coach Ken in the position of having to end Derek's season or end his career against Derek.
2010 is scarier than 2004. The year of the Lonesome Polecat. SHG crushed Jacksonville and everyone else in the season and the bracket would have brought JCA to our place in the third round. Jacksonville played out of their heads and SHG had three long TDs called back (the only game I ever saw in 60 plus years where I was and remain convinced that officiating bias threw the game).
I may try for the tailgate, especially if we get a Saturday day game where I could bring the wheel chair. Getting in and out of the car with crutches and a low seat is tough enough and I can't use regular chairs. This I s about the only time of year that I consider getting one of the electric scooters, but while I may not walk well, I'll continue for as long as I'm able.
It is merely an example of over confidence proven to be based in false assumptions. No weather conditions or ball control is going to stop SHG as the post to which I commented claimed. Only scoring will do so. Half of the points given up by SHG were against Rochester. Likewise, half of the points given up by Rocester were scored by SHG. I am uncertain why the example given is misunderstood since it applies so well to the notion of countering the reasons given for a possibility of beating SHG.
Compare the line play, the decision making of the QB, the vision of the RBs, the ability of the receivers to catch in traffic, the pursuit paths of the LBs, and the coverage of the DBs. But put the weather and ball control reasons away. They are non-factors....
If Moline is in a hangover from beating Sterling and winning the WB6, then it becomes winnable. If it's a focused Moline team, then I'm not so sure.
Is ball control not one way to win if you can finish drives? A couple 8 minute drives in the first half both punctuated with scores is an effective way to shorten the game. This is football 101 when one team has more talent (SHG) and the team with less talent but immense discipline and composure (RB) wants to counter their advantage by shortening the length of the game. When both teams are throwing the ball and scoring quickly the more talented team with more weapons will win 97 percent of the time. When the game gets compressed and each team only gets 6 possessions, one turnover by the superior team can swing the game.
I don’t eee Rochester or st Francis beating SHG. RB and JC would likely be underdogs but I could see them having a better chance because of how they would almost certainly shorten the game and put premiums on each possession . They would create a leverage point in a game with only 5 to 8 possessions per team. Any fumble can swing the game and if you can steal just one possession on a turnover or onside kick or defensive stop, that may be enough to win the game if you can convert on your drives.
in a track meet, you either have to score 9 to 10 times or create more turnovers/get more stops. And against SHG that sounds like it’s not likely.
this is what RB did to JC last year and it almost worked. They weren’t going to beat a physically superior opponent by going score for score with them over 12 possessions apiece. Sounds like SHG is the same juggernaut this year. Wont that be every teams approach? I know it’s easier said than done, but isn’t ball control how lesser talented teams beat more talented teams? Like how ESL lost last year??? Yes you still have to get a few stops and convert on offense, but if the recipe for Cary grove to beat esl was 30 plus minutes of possession and 60 rushing attempts, that is the template for any 4a team to have a chance against SHG.
or is SHG even more beyond the 4a field than ESL was the 6a field last year where even a perfectly placed ball control game of keep away won’t be able to stop then? If so, are they even beatable? If so, do you suggest attempting to go toe to toe in a shootout with ken Leonard’s best offense ever?
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It has been tried twice with limited success. In the opener Rochester managed one possession of over a quarter. It seemed odd to watch since Rochester usually plays very fast. I figure it must have felt pretty strange to Rochester's veterans as well. Jacksonville held the ball for almost a quarter and led 7-0, then 7-6 when the SHG kicker had one of his rare misses.
But both failed for the same reason. Time of possession is irrelevant against a team whose drives seldom exceed 2-3 minutes and who can score on any play from any point on the field. I don't have the stat but I'd wager heavily that the time of possession has been heavily weighted against SHG in every game. Including the two that went running clock early in the second quarter.
Bluntly put, I believe that defeating SHG would require 1) slowing down the game with long possessions and 2)scoring on every possession. A great defensive secondary would also help.
Appreciate the input! I agree. It sounds like only perfectly executed ball control with near perfect offensive execution along with 1 lucky defensive stop is the only way to derail the freight train. That’s nearly impossible but CG found a wag to thread that needle against ESL last year.
I just don’t get cigaros saying ball control won’t work when that sounds like the onlmy prayer that may work. Perhaps not likely and requires some things to still break your way, but if their offense is what you both are billing it as, ball control is the only path to victory.. sounds like Derek knows this. Just because it didn’t work the first 8 weeks doesn’t mean there is a better way.
I think this difference is both RB and JCA are much better teams than Rochester and Jacksonville and therefore would have a better chance of being successful using this strategy.
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