Here is my best guess
- All CCL schools vote no
- All CPS schools vote no
- 80% of all 5a-8a suburban schools vote no
- All downstate 1a-4a public schools except for those in the NUIC vote yes
- Downstate 5a-8a will be a wildcard
- Southwest football conference schools vote no
- private 1a-4a schools and will be a wildcard
I see a number of small conferences who will not want districts...I will use the conference just south of Kankakee, the Sangamon Valley, as an example. There are four core schools to this conference: Iroquois West, 2AClifton Central, 2A Momence, and 2A Watseka. Paxton has traditionally been with them in and out of conferences for many years...I West sits right near the 1A/2A border, and would likely prefer its traditional neighboring rivals to regular non-conference foes from the Heartland conference to the west or VVC to the south...Paxton had the opportunity to leave with the 3A powers to the south - St. Joe Ogden, Monticello, Tolono Unity - when they left less than a decade ago...Most of the proposed districts attempts, like Soucie's, show it is very possible that Central & Momence get a district with all CPS schools...icky...The other two schools are Dwight coop & Seneca, both small 3A schools who abandoned the I-8 for competitive reasons...
A vote for districts throws the 3 3A SVC members into situations in 3A districts they probably will not be competitive in - Dwight & Seneca back to their former I-8 foes (and 5 of the 8 schools in the "new" conference arising from the I-8 are 3A schools), while Paxton might go with them or to St. Joes, Monticello & Tolono...There's three no votes.
The other four don't like the likely results of their being torn apart...Iroquois County used to have like 15 little school districts, consolidated down to 6 schools primarily in Iroquois county: Central, IW, Watseka, Donovan, Milford, Cissna Park (Paxton, St. Anne, Hoopeston Area being the primary out of county districts)...
Watseka, Central & Momence likely want to stay together, with Iroquois West, as they are only about 40 students enrollment apart...A change to districts likely causes a significant increase in travel costs for these four schools...
So that's a likely 7-0 vote against districts in the SVC...The Kankakee area I-8 schools are likely a 7-0 no vote, as Streator probably doesn't want to return to its former conference rivals, and the other 6 are likely anti-McNamara...I don't picture the Vermillion Valley conference schools, who for the most part have been crushed enrollment wise by Danville's collapse, thinking that consolidation or co-ops are likely, wanting to be fed to St. Joes & friends in a couple of years - and Hoopeston is staring at a district with St. Joes & friends right away...
As a result, I don't see anyone in favor of districts along the east side of the state between Chicago & Danville...
