I will say Hillcrest has a good chance to make it but only because they don’t have to face Montini or Sterling and a few others in the playoffs, only the final game.
Q: 2 weeks out , what team is the biggest favorite to win its class?
- Thread starter King MJ
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Sterling and Montini will be in the semi final game on the North side, We shall see if Hillcrest gets past JCA or a few others.
What happened to Sterling in Week 9 against Sycamore? Is Sycamore just that good?
Sycamore is very good, Sterling had their 2 best athletes out and didn’t come to play.
That's the kind of thing I would have written had I written the dsr this year...but as it stands, I'm at a sushi bar in Reno. It's not bad.
I think AC will win but it's not as easy as you think. Will have a tough quarter final game vs. Lena-Winslow who is the favorite to win. LW defeated Tuscola to win the 2017 state championship. The shot against LW is they don't face vigorous competition during the regular season. In their 8 wins, their closest margin of victory was 19 points.
AC on the other hand knows how to work through adversity with a much stronger schedule. If the AC vs. LW game is played on the AC turf, I think AC wins.
(neutral site) CalPreps has LW over AC 35-27.
Lena Winslow plays in the toughest small school conference in the state, the Northwest Upstate Illini Conference. Since 2010, this conference has produced 7 state football championships from 4 different teams. Since 2000, the number is 13 state championships from 7 different teams. Their only loss was by 6 to Eastland Pearl City, who is undefeated and a 3 seed in 2A. Year in and year out, the teams in this conference face very tough competition, because they play each other. Yes, I know AC plays much bigger schools, but don't think LW is not battle tested because of their margins of victory.
Also, don't look past Princeville, a potential second round opponent for AC and the number 1 seed in the bracket. They are coming off a quarterfinal appearance last year and have returned almost their entire starting line up. We'll get a little idea about how they might match up, based on AC's first round game against Annawan-Wethersfield. Princeville and A-W are in the same conference and Princeville beat A-W 42-6 in the middle of the season. That was A-W's last loss.
Well said. Thanks for the historical perspective.
To be clear, I am not discounting the strength of the conference.
It does not change the accuracy of my statement, LW has not faced vigorous competition - not this year, not last year. Let me be more descriptive. LW competition may be "very tough" as you stated, but at no time in their 8 wins this year did they face game critical situations. They never had to defend a goal line or against a first down in a game critical situation. They were never playing from behind with the clock against them. They've not had to manage a clock or time outs. They've never had to convert critical 3rd or 4th downs. None of those situations come into play when you win every game by 19 or more points. In that regard, LW is untested.
Strong conference - yes.
Tough competitors - yes.
The 21-20 victory over Tuscola in the state championship last year... that was a test which will serve them well. Howerver, LW doesn't get that kind of testing on a week to week basis. At least not in conference the last two years.
In their 8 wins, I would agree. But in their one loss to a very good team by a score of 20-14, they may have faced all of those situations (I didn't see the game, so I don't know). Just because they lost that game doesn't mean they didn't learn from those situations. It's not like AC has been in a lot of tight games. 6 of their games were decided by an average margin of 34 points. The only games that weren't were RB, St. Francis and Wheaton Academy. With the experience of winning a state championship last year and the history of the coaching staff and their success, I don't think the situations you describe will put LW at any more of a deficit than they would AC. To be clear, I'm not saying that AC won't beat LW (if they even play each other), I'm just saying I don't think the things you describe will really have much impact on the outcome.
For what it's worth, For L-W to reach the state title game last year, they played Forreston in the semis (who also is a member of the same conf. as L-W) and won 12-8. L-W gave Forreston their only two losses on the season. Leading up to that game, L-W had won their first 12 games by an average score of 49-12, with the closest game being a 12 point win. It didn't hurt them last year and I don't believe it will hurt them this year.
Now I will be really interested to see how the Aurora Christian vs Princeville game plays out next week. AC beat Annawan-Wethersfield in a close game yesterday, 26-20. This is the same team Princeville beat in week 5, 42-6. With this game and the potential of a quarterfinal game against Lena-Winslow, this will not be an easy route for AC. If they win the state championship, they will have earned it.
You can come back to this in a few weeks, Sterling and Montini or Sterling and Sycamore will be the last two standing and whoever Hillcrest faces from those teams their season will be over, but I think JCA will take them out before they get that far.
Have you seen Hillcrest play? You seem like you don’t believe in them at all. What games have you watched that makes you think they don’t have what it takes?
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