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MMXXIV Edition - CCL-ESCC Predictions Week XII

@BoundaryCorner Take a look at your MC pick and score. Did you mean Normal +23 wiith your 42-20 score? Or do you want MC -23 not realizing the score doesn't match that outcome. Please advise.

@ignazio Again with your gamesmanship during a Sparty v Sparty week. From your synopsis of the game, I assume you are taking the (Wheaton) St. Francis Spartans and giving the 3 points to the (Sycamore) Sycamore Spartans. Please advise.
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MMXXIV Edition - CCL-ESCC Predictions Week XII

Normal @ MC
I'm starting to think Gambletron has AI or is spending time at McNally's. I'll go with 10-1 Ironmen.
MS @ LA
Ramblers really struggled to find their gears against the Skins. Shutting down WA (508-61 has to be a record) is impressive. 15 points is too much. Hawks.
Quincy @ SR
MC ruined their perfect season last year, now it's Rita's turn. Mustangs.
Naz @ Rochelle
I think the associate member hangs with the Naz for a half before it's opened up. Runners.
SF @ Sycamore
Noble Bulls to Westinghouse to SF will hit like a 3am wake up call. Sparty.
JC @ Peoria
40-16 last year so Gambletron goes 42-19 this year. Science. Hilltoppers.
SL @ DP
Injuries, legacies, histories, mysteries. What people don't know is that DePaul has a young, aggressive, risk-taking coaching staff. DLS should've taken any assistant for a rebuild. Rams.
MCHS @ Princeton
A Short Drive that Takes you Far. Broncos.

CoM @ SI - FRIDAY
Might be the last chance to see QB Superstar before he departs to IMG. Wolfpack.
ND @ PC - THURSDAY
Nice to see the Providence taking part in the fun. Celtics.

4A Quarterfinal St Laurence @ Chicago DePaul

For some reason, IHSA goes by the enrollment number from like 4 years ago. Next year, we're at least 6A.

Also, this week's game vs DePaul has been moved up to Noon on Saturday.
All..... The new two year enrollment average starts next year for the 2025 and 2026 season. Enrollments for that average will be bases upon turned in numbers to the Ihsa for 2023 and 2024. A strange way of doing things but it is the Ihsa way. Ratsy
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4A Quarterfinal St Laurence @ Chicago DePaul

The battle of 2025’s 6A schools.

Lawrence is healthy and on a roll. Can they keep it going? DePaul is on the rise and looking to make a statement in the CCL and the state, this will be a great game to watch.

Does anyone know who will be broadcasting the game, YouTube or NFHS Network?

Higher seeds should get the home game.

Does the fifth highest-ranked conference champion automatically receive the #5 seed? No. Then apparently that team is being judged based on a different set of criteria (for seeding purposes) than that used to seed the first four highest-ranked conference champions (and the criteria used to select those five teams in the first place). That team, like the first four, was selected automatically for the playoff by virtue of being a conference champion. It was seeded on the basis of the committee's rankings like the at-large teams.

The NCAA basketball tournament is a better example of this type of process. There are roughly 32 automatic qualifiers that participate in the tournament by virtue of being conference champions. They are selected (receive their bids) before any at-large teams. However, all 68 teams in the tournament are seeded on the basis of the committee's collective judgment. The committee, however, has no jurisdiction over whether or not the automatic qualifiers will participate. At least in part, teams are selected for the tournament, and are seeded for the tournament, based on different criteria.

Originally, as I recall (without rereading all six pages of this thread), you suggested teams should be selected for the IHSA football playoffs and seeded within those playoffs based on the same criteria. That is what is currently done for the most part. There is some merit to that thinking. It is consistent. If the criteria are good enough for selecting teams, then logic would suggest the same criteria are also good enough for seeding those teams. So far so good.

Again, as I recall, jha618 suggested at some point that although he was okay with teams being selected under the current system, he thought it more fair that teams be seeded using criteria that included a more accurate measure of strength-of-schedule (SoS). After all, the IHSA seemed to think SoS should be a factor by using the rudimentary system of adding up opponents wins. If SoS should be a factor, couldn't the seeding process be made better by using a better measure of SoS? There is some merit to that thinking. [He also would not use strength-of-schedule merely as a tie-breaker for identical win-loss records.]

It was at this point that you [although I must admit your arguments seemed to go in different directions at different times] seemed to indicate no rational person would use a different set of criteria for seeding purposes than those used for selecting teams for playoff participation. When jha618 provided examples of when different criteria were used for the two different tasks, you seemed to reject the examples and disputed that they adequately represented his point. His point being, I think, that there were presumably rational people in this world that thought two different sets of criteria made sense.

I am merely expressing my belief that jha618 proved that particular point.

While I will extend the courtesy of reading any response you may choose to make, I have to admit I'm getting tired of the topic and therefore will not be contributing anything further to this thread.
I appreciate your post. You summed up my point very well in that different qualification and seeding criteria is not a novel idea. @4Afan has actually acknowledged that at varying points in this discussion. And you are probably right by saying it's for me to bow out this discussion. I don't know how many other examples I can give.
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1A/2A/3A Quarterfinals

1A -
LeRoy and Galena should be a really good game. LeRoy has some great players and do what they do very well. LeRoy has a definite shot to get to the title game. Lena and GCMS, we all know what Lena is and they aren't any different this year. GCMS has done a nice job building back after the retirement of a legendary coach and a few weak athletic classes, but they have accomplished what is expected of them as a program.

Althoff is loaded and has more skill than any 1A maybe has ever had. Casey is a once storied program that has fell on tough times that last decade but have started to improve and I would expect them to be a playoff staple for the next few years. Hardin gave Camp Point their only loss of the season and they have some really good athletes but struggled against a so so Sesser team last week.

2A - Farmington squeaked out a win against Rockridge and Dwight squeaked out a surprise victory over Farmington's rival Elmwood-Brimfied. This may be the year Farmington gets the trip to ISU. Bismarck finally got through the 2nd round for the first time in forever but have to play an up and coming program in Chicago Christian, who I hear is hosting their first playoff game, and has a really good opportunity to win. Chicago Christian and Farmington would be a good semi-final game.

Johnston City and Pana....have no clue but these teams always seem to be playing late in the season, their reward for winning will be playing the state champ in the winner of the Maroa-Forsyth and Quincy Notre Dame. MF is back again and as always they have athletes and speed. QND has played a big school schedule and done pretty well, so I think these are the best 2A teams and should be a great game.

3A - We all know about Montini, they beat the mighty Byron (barely) and will have to turn around and play a solid Princeton program. Princeton had one hiccup against Monmouth-Roseville, but they shouldn't pose much of a challenge for Montini. Wilmington gets a very interesting matchup with DuPec. Contrasting styles and two solid small school programs going at it. Too bad the winner draws Montini, which will be a big challenge.

Tolono started off the year a bit slow but have started to click at the right time. They have not been challenged for several weeks and get to play a very tough Nashville team that always seems to be in the Quarters, Semis, or Title game. Tolono has a great dual threat QB and a stout defense that may cause some issues for Nashville. Monticello surprised many by beating Williamsville and pull a Benton teams who struggled through some games earlier this season. Monticello has a definite shot to get a rematch with Tolono, which they took a bad loss in week 9.

1A/2A/3A Quarterfinals

I am looking forward to Bismarck coming to Chicago Christian's first ever home playoff game in the quarterfinals or beyond. Many of y'all get year after year of prime playoff matchups for your teams, so this is a some prime rib for hungry CCHS fans.

I agree with doctor d - that QND and Maroa game is a great one.
Chi Christian might have something to say about 2A when it’s all said and done. That’s why I air quoted that the QND-Maroa matchup was the title game. I originally coin flip picked Tri Valley, but I thought the winner of TV and CC would get to ISU.

This years version of Wilmo is an excellent team and probably would have been solid favorites in 2A. Montini looks unbeatable though in 3A now that Byron is out of the way. Montini has some DUDES.

Higher seeds should get the home game.

*SIGH* Since it doesn't appear you looked into the CFP link I'll just copy and paste.

PRINCIPLES

The committee will select the teams using a process that distinguishes among otherwise comparable teams by considering:
  • Strength of schedule,
  • Head-to-head competition,
  • Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory), and,
  • Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.

VOTING PROCESS

The voting process generally will include seven rounds of ballots through which the committee members first will select a small pool of teams to be evaluated, then will rank those teams, with the teams being placed in the rankings in groups of three for three rounds, then four for the other four rounds. Individual committee members’ rankings will be compiled into a composite ranking for each round. Each committee member will independently evaluate an immense amount of information during the process. This evaluation will lead to individual qualitative and quantitative opinions that will inform each member’s votes.

NUMBER OF TEAMS TO BE RANKED

The committee will rank 25 teams. The five highest-ranked conference champions and the next seven highest-ranked teams will be in the playoff.

Please point out where the top 4 teams are seeded using a separate criteria. Them being seeded in the top 4 is based on being a conference champ. I don't consider that a different set of criteria to be seeded 1-4, I think of it more as a qualifier (to be top 4 you must be one of the top 4 ranked conference champs). They don't determine the top 12 best based on computer rankings and then bring in the committee to determine and seed the top 4.
Does the fifth highest-ranked conference champion automatically receive the #5 seed? No. Then apparently that team is being judged based on a different set of criteria (for seeding purposes) than that used to seed the first four highest-ranked conference champions (and the criteria used to select those five teams in the first place). That team, like the first four, was selected automatically for the playoff by virtue of being a conference champion. It was seeded on the basis of the committee's rankings like the at-large teams.

The NCAA basketball tournament is a better example of this type of process. There are roughly 32 automatic qualifiers that participate in the tournament by virtue of being conference champions. They are selected (receive their bids) before any at-large teams. However, all 68 teams in the tournament are seeded on the basis of the committee's collective judgment. The committee, however, has no jurisdiction over whether or not the automatic qualifiers will participate. At least in part, teams are selected for the tournament, and are seeded for the tournament, based on different criteria.

Originally, as I recall (without rereading all six pages of this thread), you suggested teams should be selected for the IHSA football playoffs and seeded within those playoffs based on the same criteria. That is what is currently done for the most part. There is some merit to that thinking. It is consistent. If the criteria are good enough for selecting teams, then logic would suggest the same criteria are also good enough for seeding those teams. So far so good.

Again, as I recall, jha618 suggested at some point that although he was okay with teams being selected under the current system, he thought it more fair that teams be seeded using criteria that included a more accurate measure of strength-of-schedule (SoS). After all, the IHSA seemed to think SoS should be a factor by using the rudimentary system of adding up opponents wins. If SoS should be a factor, couldn't the seeding process be made better by using a better measure of SoS? There is some merit to that thinking. [He also would not use strength-of-schedule merely as a tie-breaker for identical win-loss records.]

It was at this point that you [although I must admit your arguments seemed to go in different directions at different times] seemed to indicate no rational person would use a different set of criteria for seeding purposes than those used for selecting teams for playoff participation. When jha618 provided examples of when different criteria were used for the two different tasks, you seemed to reject the examples and disputed that they adequately represented his point. His point being, I think, that there were presumably rational people in this world that thought two different sets of criteria made sense.

I am merely expressing my belief that jha618 proved that particular point.

While I will extend the courtesy of reading any response you may choose to make, I have to admit I'm getting tired of the topic and therefore will not be contributing anything further to this thread.
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