Well I said I would give my prediction on Friday, and I kinda did on the CCL Spread post but I'll give a more detailed one here.
@ignazio or anyone else, you may want to save this for your next extended bathroom trip!
2022 weighs heavily on my mind. That year MC won in week one 35-3. Same two teams met in the semifinals and MC won 20-9 but let's be honest, it didn't feel like they won. They lost 3 and 1/4 quarters of that game and just threw a bad int deep in their own territory when they were losing 9-7. MC couldn't buy a break. Then one came. SR fumbled after the INT, MC recovered and never looked back. Now this game of Football, MC Football in particular has been a staple of my life (Family, Friends, God, Caravan) and I've watched enough to know you can't base one games outcome on a similar situation. So what happened in 2022 doesn't mean it will automatically happen again in 2024....at least me and my aging heart hope not. I also don't buy into revenge factor games. They are great to get teams and crowds hyped up, but once the ball is kicked off, you have to play the game. So I believe in traditional X's and O's, leaving room for error, especially teenagers making errors and Coaches/Assistants making errors, many of which are doing this as a side job and second source of income and don't have all day to watch film. And of course the weather! So based off the science of Football here are my thoughts.
Weather- Cloudy and seasonably cold, not outrageously cold like the Artic 2022 game, just typical November weather, my somewhat reliable phone app doesn't have the wind symbol in any hours of play. So weather should not play a factor.
X's and O's- Week 2 MC won 28-0. Jack Elliott almost didn't play. His body went into severe dehydration during the Hun game where he could barely move but you wouldn't know it until maybe the final drive where he just seemed tired, but he was in need of several IVs and days of monitoring, was told he didn't practice the whole week until the Thursday walk through when he was cleared...still did pretty good that game! Well Jack is still not 100%, it's week 13 nobody is, but while it was noticeable he wasn't his normal self the last 3 regular season games, he has shown in the playoffs that maybe there was a method to their madness holding him back and releasing him slowly, and slowly and slowly, until finally they give him the full green light. If Jack is on, then so will the MC offense and you will know quickly if he is. Is MC's Offense better then SR's defense? When things are clicking, I think so. Rita has a VERY good defense and they will make plays and things difficult on MC. But can they do it for 4 quarters? Can their secondary consistently cover Burrell, Lehman and Thornton? I think MC will find the endzone 4 times with the final one being late in the game.
Lets flip the script to defense. MC's thorn in the side this year. There is talent everywhere. They have a DE committed to USC with another one with numerous D1 offers, and a 6'4 330 pound Noseguard in the middle, they have the CCL Blue Defensive Player of the Year at LB, they have a D1 DB with 13 picks in two years. The DC has 2 State Rings with a third as a player, he knows this game. So what has been the issue? Youth? Players taking plays off? Other teams just having explosive offenses? All the above? What I'm guessing in todays RPO system and the days of three yards and a cloud of dust being over, having superior defenses that pitch shut out after shut out is nearing its end. It seems to be the day of "We can't stop them we can only hope to contain them". Can your offense out score ours and can your defense slow us down and come up with a big play when needed. Rita also has a fine offense. They have a strong senior leader at RB in Herman and a fine junior QB in Armbruster. Rita's offense has never been described as explosive and they take pride in that. They aren't designed to strike quick and move fast. They slow the clock, but they aren't one dimensional either, they hurt you by land and air, it's just not a track meet. I think these offenses are where this MC defense has had more success in.
Coaches- Jordan Lynch came to MC with many of their loyal supporters giving him the middle finger and many swearing to never support MC again after how the coaching change took place. He blocked it out, revamped an offense built for the veer with no players he recruited and took them to the semifinals his first year and damn near made it to the Championship. The following season he went 14-0. He's followed that up with 2 more rings. He's become probably the best offensive minded coach in Illinois. He's very hard to predict, he will run a play for a TD and you may not see it again for 3 weeks. They are very hard to prepare for. He lives by the sword and dies by it. "Why punt if I have another down? Why go for 3 when I can get 6?" He gambles and MC can get screwed by it. We gave Naz 14 points on short fields when we were stopped on 4th down. I think this year he's realized as the season went on with this defense we can't be going all in all the time. But he's been in almost every situation in his 7th season, he's battle tested and I'm guessing some of those alums who swore off MC have come back to Dante. Marty Hopkins is the total opposite. He came into SR with open arms. Proud son of Rita passing the torch to another one with a storied playing career at Rita and a strong family who are well respected in the community. Slam dunk of a hire keeping the tradition strong. Hops is a Defensive minded Coach, which is to be expected from a man who was an excellent Linebacker. But he has had a Veteran staff around him to help him through these first two seasons. A strong start to 2023 came apart with injuries and bad luck that gave them a first round matchup on the road at MC who was really pissed that they gave a game away to Loyola that they had many chances to win. They didn't pack it in, they regrouped and won the Prep Bowl, and they credit that Prep Bowl to the success they had this year.
The Unknowns- Will there be an injury to a pivotal player? Will turnovers happen? Will teams take advantage of every break they get? Again unknown.
Shut up already and predict- For Rita- They stuck to their game plan and traditional style of play all year and they beat the teams they should have soundly. They didn't play LA this year but I would have liked to see that game. They had a rough game against an explosive Naz team, but they beat BR on the road when not many thought they could. It wasn't a barn burner at 14-7, but Rice, an explosive team on all accounts, played right into Rita's hand. But Rice had a junior QB making his third start and was a deer in headlights with Rita's defense and Buckner coming at him. MC has Elliott. Been there done that QB who dares LBs to blitz him and welcomes the challenge. He just has that confidence, and when you have a player like that, who has the ball in his hands every play and the endless playbook of what to do with it, you have to bet on him to win in a big game. So I'm going MC 27 (missed XP) SR 17....a push on the 10 points Rita is getting. Your thoughts? Please don't feel the need to get as long winded as me, this is my hoobie, I'm a lousy fisherman and have no patience for woodworking or auto repair 😀. Cheers! Go Caravan!!
