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Football Enrollment

Incorporate a system that ALL schools have a sliding class placement scale both for success and demotion if certain requirements are met. So many schools are over-classed based solely on the outdated school size rule, the playoff data certainly speaks volumes on this.

Yes! I've been howling in the wind about this for years on this board! Glad to see someone else seeing the logic of it. Be prepared for lots of naysayers and nitpickers, though.

Rank all classes from 1-32 and split the brackets into an "Upper Bracket" (1-16) and a "Relegation Bracket" (17-32) per class. To discourage teams from intentionally tanking in order to play in the Relegation Bracket, implement a rule that if a team wins the Relegation Bracket, there is a 4 year ban from competing in Regelation Bracket at that class level, and would need to qualify to compete in either the Champion (see below #4), Upper Bracket, or a higher-class Relegation Bracket during that 4-year ban before being eligible again. I feel this would help reduce some of the clocked games and layout some compelling brackets from the start.

Very interesting idea indeed! Ranking will be a challenge and lots of folks will want you to have every T crossed and I dotted on that.

Incorporate strength of schedule into class placements and rankings to create a more equitable system. I admit this one may be more difficult and would be subject to opinion. However, with all the algorithms out there, someone could come up with something useful, admittedly this is beyond my brain capacity.
Example would be something like CCL 4 or 5 win teams qualify because of strength of schedule, but a conference like UEC maybe 6 or 7 win teams only.

Again, I've been talking about this for years, but I was pilloried when I took your approach that smarter people than me can come up with the right formula. Talk with @stonedlizard about the system he has already devised.

Consider a Champion Bracket where the top 12 teams in state play regardless of class. I believe other states like CA do this. This open bracket would crown the best team in IL. All other teams filter down to the Upper & Relegation Class Brackets based on placement rules. Only the Champion and Upper Brackets play in State location, Relegation brackets plays in normal course of home school games to higher seed.

Hmmm. Now you are getting into dangerous territory. People will mock you and say that it will diminish the non Champion Bracket class championships.

Create a CPS bracket, winners move to other brackets for limited amount of time before being eligible back in CPS bracket. Example 4 years with no Quarter Final appearances in other brackets allows eligibility back in CPS bracket. IMHO the CPS needs some work. Admittedly I am ignorant to all the workings of the CPS, but I see so many get clocked in the current brackets.

The elephant in the room. No easy fix.

But if you believe, like me, that the data shows there are imperfections in the IHSA playoff brackets and class placements and think the goal should be to create a more balanced playoff system I am curious your thoughts.

I believe, more than anything, that the problem lies in a flawed enrollment-based classification system. I also believe that there are too many classes and too many qualifiers in each class. The more watered down the playoffs are with classes and enrollment-based qualifiers, the more they are susceptible to blowouts especially in 1-32 seeding.

Overall, I think your heart is in the right place on this. Thanks for taking a stab at it. Seriously, have a conversation with @stonedlizard about this. You'll be glad you did.
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Football Enrollment

I was working on a new post about classification and bracket ideas when this one came out.

Here were a few of my thoughts:
  1. Incorporate a system that ALL schools have a sliding class placement scale both for success and demotion if certain requirements are met. So many schools are over-classed based solely on the outdated school size rule, the playoff data certainly speaks volumes on this.

  2. Rank all classes from 1-32 and split the brackets into an "Upper Bracket" (1-16) and a "Relegation Bracket" (17-32) per class. To discourage teams from intentionally tanking in order to play in the Relegation Bracket, implement a rule that if a team wins the Relegation Bracket, there is a 4 year ban from competing in Regelation Bracket at that class level, and would need to qualify to compete in either the Champion (see below #4), Upper Bracket, or a higher-class Relegation Bracket during that 4-year ban before being eligible again. I feel this would help reduce some of the clocked games and layout some compelling brackets from the start.

  3. Incorporate strength of schedule into class placements and rankings to create a more equitable system. I admit this one may be more difficult and would be subject to opinion. However, with all the algorithms out there, someone could come up with something useful, admittedly this is beyond my brain capacity.
    Example would be something like CCL 4 or 5 win teams qualify because of strength of schedule, but a conference like UEC maybe 6 or 7 win teams only.

  4. Consider a Champion Bracket where the top 12 teams in state play regardless of class. I believe other states like CA do this. This open bracket would crown the best team in IL. All other teams filter down to the Upper & Relegation Class Brackets based on placement rules. Only the Champion and Upper Brackets play in State location, Relegation brackets plays in normal course of home school games to higher seed.

  5. Create a CPS bracket, winners move to other brackets for limited amount of time before being eligible back in CPS bracket. Example 4 years with no Quarter Final appearances in other brackets allows eligibility back in CPS bracket. IMHO the CPS needs some work. Admittedly I am ignorant to all the workings of the CPS, but I see so many get clocked in the current brackets.
Obvious Rebuttals:
1. Travel could be an issue for 1 – 32 rankings. Maybe neutral sites if travel is more than 2.5 hours, gates go to home team.
2. Too Many Brackets. My response would be so what, let’s worry about getting it right, plus the Champion Bracket will crown the top dog in the State. The above ideas would only add 12 more teams total if Champion bracket was created. This might also possible allow the reduction in number classes total, maybe go to 6.

Interested in hearing some rebuttals on this, obviously if you think the IHSA Playoffs are good as is the so be it. But if you believe, like me, that the data shows there are imperfections in the IHSA playoff brackets and class placements and think the goal should be to create a more balanced playoff system I am curious your thoughts.
Always enjoy hearing someone's thoughts on how to make the playoffs better.
Just for clarification, I will use 5A the class for the example. The top 16 teams compete for a 5A title and the next 16 teams compete for a 5A title? Did I miss something? So, you have 5A Gold champs and 5A Silver champs? Obviously, Gold=Upper and Silver=Relegation.
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MMXXIV Edition - CCL-ESCC Predictions Week XIII

And our Season Long Contest Standings:

namegamesWINSPCT
@k1867
153​
97​
63.40%​
@3OrangeWhips
152​
96​
63.16%​
@ignazio
152​
91​
59.87%​
@tuccs
150​
91​
60.67%​
@refref01
150​
88​
58.67%​
@BillyTheBuffoon
153​
86​
56.21%​
@pjjp
153​
86​
56.21%​
@80sRambler
152​
86​
56.58%​
@Stella5
153​
85​
55.56%​
@BornNRazed
152​
85​
55.92%​
@MsDavis10
152​
83​
54.61%​
@ESCC fan
130​
77​
59.23%​
@RockSoup
122​
75​
61.48%​
@stl705
103​
61​
59.22%​
@BoundaryCorner
99​
56​
56.57%​
@McCaravan
87​
56​
64.37%​
@ChicagoRambler
60​
37​
61.67%​
@SiuCubFan8
48​
25​
52.08%​
@DMurph11
46​
22​
47.83%​
@Crusaderfan19
39​
22​
56.41%​
@K3D88
11​
6​
54.55%​
@Billy Budapest
6​
5​
83.33%​
@jwarigaku
6​
5​
83.33%​
@RameyJacoby
11​
4​
36.36%​
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Football Enrollment

I think you could pretty easily. I did this in a few hours of work using just copy/paste from a few IHSA website pages and excel. Put that all in a real database and you could easily expand on the metrics for either seeding or classification purposes.

My immediate thoughts are to look at CPS and CCL/ESCC schools through a unique lens. Whether a straight cap on class movement or a conference specific adjustment, those are a lot of the biggest movers (going both ways for CCL). I quite like how it moved a lot of other schools up and down. It definitely struggles on the edge cases as a lot of 8A schools just naturally get pulled down.
I was working on a new post about classification and bracket ideas when this one came out.

Here were a few of my thoughts:
  1. Incorporate a system that ALL schools have a sliding class placement scale both for success and demotion if certain requirements are met. So many schools are over-classed based solely on the outdated school size rule, the playoff data certainly speaks volumes on this.

  2. Rank all classes from 1-32 and split the brackets into an "Upper Bracket" (1-16) and a "Relegation Bracket" (17-32) per class. To discourage teams from intentionally tanking in order to play in the Relegation Bracket, implement a rule that if a team wins the Relegation Bracket, there is a 4 year ban from competing in Regelation Bracket at that class level, and would need to qualify to compete in either the Champion (see below #4), Upper Bracket, or a higher-class Relegation Bracket during that 4-year ban before being eligible again. I feel this would help reduce some of the clocked games and layout some compelling brackets from the start.

  3. Incorporate strength of schedule into class placements and rankings to create a more equitable system. I admit this one may be more difficult and would be subject to opinion. However, with all the algorithms out there, someone could come up with something useful, admittedly this is beyond my brain capacity.
    Example would be something like CCL 4 or 5 win teams qualify because of strength of schedule, but a conference like UEC maybe 6 or 7 win teams only.

  4. Consider a Champion Bracket where the top 12 teams in state play regardless of class. I believe other states like CA do this. This open bracket would crown the best team in IL. All other teams filter down to the Upper & Relegation Class Brackets based on placement rules. Only the Champion and Upper Brackets play in State location, Relegation brackets plays in normal course of home school games to higher seed.

  5. Create a CPS bracket, winners move to other brackets for limited amount of time before being eligible back in CPS bracket. Example 4 years with no Quarter Final appearances in other brackets allows eligibility back in CPS bracket. IMHO the CPS needs some work. Admittedly I am ignorant to all the workings of the CPS, but I see so many get clocked in the current brackets.
Obvious Rebuttals:
1. Travel could be an issue for 1 – 32 rankings. Maybe neutral sites if travel is more than 2.5 hours, gates go to home team.
2. Too Many Brackets. My response would be so what, let’s worry about getting it right, plus the Champion Bracket will crown the top dog in the State. The above ideas would only add 12 more teams total if Champion bracket was created. This might also possible allow the reduction in number classes total, maybe go to 6.

Interested in hearing some rebuttals on this, obviously if you think the IHSA Playoffs are good as is the so be it. But if you believe, like me, that the data shows there are imperfections in the IHSA playoff brackets and class placements and think the goal should be to create a more balanced playoff system I am curious your thoughts.

Finals predictions: Closest and Most lopsided title games

I'm only interested in JCA-Naz. Naz has outcoached JCA the past few games. When JCA has been in a tight game and things aren't going well offensively the tendency is to continue to do what hasn't been working. Then, keep trying what hasn't been working. Naz has able to adapt their offense to what is being given to them by the JCA defense. I want JCA to win number 16 but I suspect that Naz will take over by the end of the 3rd Quarter. Naz by 10.

MMXXIV Edition - CCL-ESCC Predictions Week XIII

Right down to the wire in our Playoff Pick 'em Showdown.

Alliteration Fun Fact: There is no word that starts with a hard 'p' sound that is a synonym for 'competition'. So showdown it is.

I'll discuss the tie-breaker with @ignazio tonight at our tuxedo fitting. Or drop an idea here if you so choose. My idea is the total points for the 7A and 8A championships. I went with both because the number and pedigree of those fighting for our Favorite Fun Finals Photo Finish Playoff Pick 'em is impressive.

nameGAMESWINSPCT
@BornNRazed
38​
24​
63.16%​
@ignazio
39​
24​
61.54%​
@80sRambler
38​
24​
63.16%​
@McCaravan
38​
24​
63.16%​
@k1867
39​
23​
58.97%​
@BillyTheBuffoon
39​
22​
56.41%​
@refref01
38​
22​
57.89%​
@Stella5
39​
22​
56.41%​
@RockSoup
39​
22​
56.41%​
@Crusaderfan19
39​
22​
56.41%​
@BoundaryCorner
39​
21​
53.85%​
@3OrangeWhips
38​
21​
55.26%​
@tuccs
37​
21​
56.76%​
@ESCC fan
39​
20​
51.28%​
@MsDavis10
39​
19​
48.72%​
@SiuCubFan8
39​
19​
48.72%​
@pjjp
39​
17​
43.59%​
@DMurph11
37​
16​
43.24%​
@K3D88
11​
6​
54.55%​
@Billy Budapest
6​
5​
83.33%​
@jwarigaku
6​
5​
83.33%​
@ChicagoRambler
6​
4​
66.67%​

Finals predictions: Closest and Most lopsided title games

It is interesting that there are only two unbeaten teams in the entire 16-team field. That is an unusually low number. Fortunately, those two teams play each other in what I think is the most interesting game of the slate. I will start my television viewing early.

I agree with others that the matchup seems favorable for Althoff. Their defense is strong against the run (which is a good trait to have against Lena-Winslow), but somewhat weaker against the pass (which Lena is unlikely to exploit). Lena's defense has shown some vulnerability this year, which is not a good trait to have against an incredibly explosive Althoff offense.

And yet, Lena-Winslow's championship pedigree is so strong I just can't rule them out.

In short, I don't know who will win this game.
One of the unusual things about this version of Lena-Winslow is how young they are. I know it's fairly common for smaller schools to play a fair amount of underclassmen, but L-W is very young. Only 3 senior starters on Offense, and 5 on Defense. Advantage Althoff there.
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MMXXIV Edition - CCL-ESCC Predictions Week XIII

Results from Week XIII:

nameGAMESWINSPCT
@tuccs
6​
6​
100.00%​
@McCaravan
6​
5​
83.33%​
@80sRambler
6​
5​
83.33%​
@Crusaderfan19
6​
5​
83.33%​
@RockSoup
6​
5​
83.33%​
@Billy Budapest
6​
5​
83.33%​
@jwarigaku
6​
5​
83.33%​
@BornNRazed
6​
4​
66.67%​
@ignazio
6​
4​
66.67%​
@Stella5
6​
4​
66.67%​
@3OrangeWhips
6​
4​
66.67%​
@k1867
6​
4​
66.67%​
@SiuCubFan8
6​
4​
66.67%​
@BoundaryCorner
6​
4​
66.67%​
@ChicagoRambler
6​
4​
66.67%​
@refref01
6​
3​
50.00%​
@DMurph11
6​
3​
50.00%​
@pjjp
6​
3​
50.00%​
@MsDavis10
6​
2​
33.33%​
@ESCC fan
6​
2​
33.33%​
@BillyTheBuffoon
6​
2​
33.33%​

Prep Bowl Info - Friday, 29 November - Whitney Young v St. Ignatius - 11:00 am at St. Ignatius

The Wolfpack are headed to the Chicago Prep Bowl, one of the oldest and most storied football championships in Illinois.
The annual game showcases a Chicago Catholic League champion and a Chicago Public League champion. Until the IHSA formed its own state championship playoffs in 1974, the Prep Bowl was the most recognized championship in both Chicago and Illinois. Since then, the tradition continues pitting representatives between the two leagues in an annual year-end matchup for the Prep Bowl Championship.

With a 33-0 victory over Notre Dame on Friday, the Pack advance to the Prep Bowl this Friday, November 29, to face the 12-1 Whitney Young Dolphins. The game will kickoff at 11:00 AM and be held on Fornelli Field. Tickets will only be sold through GoFan at https://gofan.co/event/2347572?schoolId=IL15679. The game may be streamed through HudlTV at https://fan.hudl.com/usa/il/chicago/organization/6531/saint-ignatius-high-school. Parking will be available in the Roosevelt/Racine lot. Entrance to the field is accessible via the parking lot on Roosevelt/Blue Island.

This will be the second time in program history that the Wolfpack are in the Chicago Prep Bowl. In 2017, the Pack were defeated by Simeon 19-16 at Gately Stadium. The Chicago Catholic League leads the all-time series in the Prep Bowl against the Chicago Public League 63-28-2.

Football Enrollment

Thank you for posting (and work on this), this is extremely interesting. While not perfect it certainly starts to move the bracket placements beyond the very outdated school size rule. I am curious if strength of schedule could be factored in someway, and devise a sliding scale for demotion and success for all schools.
I think you could pretty easily. I did this in a few hours of work using just copy/paste from a few IHSA website pages and excel. Put that all in a real database and you could easily expand on the metrics for either seeding or classification purposes.

My immediate thoughts are to look at CPS and CCL/ESCC schools through a unique lens. Whether a straight cap on class movement or a conference specific adjustment, those are a lot of the biggest movers (going both ways for CCL). I quite like how it moved a lot of other schools up and down. It definitely struggles on the edge cases as a lot of 8A schools just naturally get pulled down.

Finals predictions: Closest and Most lopsided title games

It is interesting that there are only two unbeaten teams in the entire 16-team field. That is an unusually low number. Fortunately, those two teams play each other in what I think is the most interesting game of the slate. I will start my television viewing early.

I agree with others that the matchup seems favorable for Althoff. Their defense is strong against the run (which is a good trait to have against Lena-Winslow), but somewhat weaker against the pass (which Lena is unlikely to exploit). Lena's defense has shown some vulnerability this year, which is not a good trait to have against an incredibly explosive Althoff offense.

And yet, Lena-Winslow's championship pedigree is so strong I just can't rule them out.

In short, I don't know who will win this game.
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Football Enrollment

Also a plea:

For the love of god please behave so all my work summarizing this data isn't lost to an Edgy flush. 🙏. I do have the data backed up, but pasting it all into bite sized snips still took work.
Thank you for posting (and work on this), this is extremely interesting. While not perfect it certainly starts to move the bracket placements beyond the very outdated school size rule. I am curious if strength of schedule could be factored in someway, and devise a sliding scale for demotion and success for all schools.
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