Football Enrollment

[Snetsrak61]

Its been tossed around before, but I don't think I've seen anyone take a formal attempt at laying out what it would look like.

Below posts will be a look at a Football Enrollment methodology.

Basic Method;
1. Your Football enrollment is your opponents enrollment averaged, with the top and bottom enrollment eliminated
2. I excluded out of state opponents
3. This was a judgement call, but I multiplied all private school enrollment figures. I think if a modernized FE were to be implemented this would need to be looked at. It didn't have huge impact if I did it on unmultiplied. For the private schools, an average change of 192 to the football enrollment number. Seemed to impact the smaller private schools more than the CCL/ESCC guys.

Results by class will be in the post below. Here are the cutoffs though compared to the current enrollment cutoffs in 2024

Class	Current Range	FE Range
1A	(0 - 292.5)	(220 - 325)
2A	(296.5 - 403.5)	(325 - 436)
3A	(406.5 - 542.5)	(439 - 580)
4A	(553 - 844)	(581 - 997)
5A	(848 - 1,272.5),	(1,017 - 1,373)
6A	(1,723 - 1,802)	(1,377 - 1,666)
7A	(1,604 - 2,156)	(1,666 - 2,173)
8A	(2,190 +)	(2,190 +)

Where would the 16 state finalists have been? So we'd have a least 4 new finalists. And potentially more depending how brackets were to shake out. YES, private schools have inflated. Not to be unexpected, but I'll point out that at least a couple traditional power public school programs / recent state finalists have as well: Rochester 5A, Cary Grove 7A, Prairie Ridge 7A, Kankakee 7A (probably more, but those were a few I noticed)
1A - Lena (L.-Winslow)
2A - Maroa (M.-Forsyth)
3A - Monticello
4A - Palos Heights (Chicago Christian)
4A - Mt. Zion
5A - Belleville (Althoff Catholic)
6A - LaGrange Park (Nazareth Academy)
6A - Chicago (DePaul)
6A - Lombard (Montini)
7A - Wilmette (Loyola Academy)
7A - Joliet (Catholic Academy)
7A - Chicago (Mt. Carmel)
7A - Geneva
7A - Batavia
8A - East St. Louis (Sr.)
8A - Elmhurst (York)

Classes to follow;

 

[Snetsrak61]

Class 1A
(we're seeding everyone 1-32, obviously)

1 - LeRoy vs. 32 - Moweaqua (Central A & M)

2 - Lena (L.-Winslow) vs. 31 -Nokomis

3 - Sullivan [Sullivan-Okaw Valley Coop] vs. 30 - Catlin (Salt Fork)

4 - Bismarck (B.-Henning-Rossville-Alvin) vs. 29 - Fithian (Oakwood)

5 - Pecatonica [Du-Pec Coop] vs. 28 - Galena (H.S.)

6 - Hardin (Calhoun) [Coop] vs. 27 - Jacksonville (Routt) [Coop]

7 - Camp Point (Central) vs. 26 - Mt. Sterling (Brown County)

8 - Arthur (A.-Lovington-Atwood-Hammond) vs. 25 - Tuscola

9 - Gibson City (Melvin-Sibley) vs. 24 - Bridgeport (Red Hill)

10 - Momence vs. 23 - Stockton

11 - Rushville (R.-Industry) vs. 22 - Niantic (Sangamon Valley) [Coop]

12 - Toulon (Stark County) vs. 21 - Westville

13 - Lanark (Eastland) [Eastland-Pearl City Coop] vs. 20 - Carrollton

14 - Greenfield [G.-Northwestern Coop] vs. 19 - Winchester [West Central Coop]

15 - Toledo (Cumberland) vs. 18 - Kewanee (Wethersfield) [Annawan-Wethersfield Coop]

16 - Warrensburg (W.-Latham) vs. 17 - Princeville

 

[Snetsrak61]

2A

1 - Farmington vs. 32 - Dupo

2 - Johnston City vs. 31 -Mackinaw (Deer Creek)

3 - Williamsville vs. 30 - Kewanee (H.S.)

4 - Downs (Tri-Valley) vs. 29 - Red Bud

5 - Maroa (M.-Forsyth) vs. 28 - Erie [E.-Prophetstown Coop]

6 - Greenville vs. 27 - Carlinville

7 - Elmwood [E.-Brimfield Coop] vs. 26 - Clifton (Central)

8 - Casey (Westfield) vs. 25 - Ottawa (Marquette)

9 - Chester vs. 24 - Dwight [Dwight/Gardner-So. Wilmington Coop]

10 - Eureka vs. 23 - Stanford (Olympia)

11 - Seneca vs. 22 - Fairfield

12 - Sterling (Newman Central Catholic) vs. 21 - Flora

13 - Taylor Ridge (Rockridge) vs. 20 - Carthage (Illini West)

14 - Sesser (Valier) [Coop] vs. 19 - Shelbyville

15 - Carmi (White County) vs. 18 - El Paso (Gridley)

16 - New Berlin [Coop] vs. 17 - Macomb

 

[Snetsrak61]

3A

1 - Byron vs. 32 - West Frankfort (Frankfort)

2 - St. Joseph (Ogden) vs. 31 -Aurora (Christian)

3 - Wilmington vs. 30 - Mt. Carmel

4 - Olney (Richland County) vs. 29 - Fairbury (Prairie Central)

5 - Dixon (H.S.) vs. 28 - Stillman Valley

6 - Princeton vs. 27 - Bloomington (Central Catholic)

7 - Monmouth (M.-Roseville) vs. 26 - Genoa (G.-Kingston)

8 - Nashville vs. 25 - Oregon

9 - West Chicago (Wheaton Academy) vs. 24 - Virden (North Mac)

10 - Pana (H.S.) vs. 23 - Rockford (Lutheran)

11 - Vandalia vs. 22 - Paxton (Buckley-Loda)

12 - Chicago (Kennedy) vs. 21 - DuQuoin (H.S.)

13 - Carterville vs. 20 - Peotone

14 - Monticello vs. 19 - Benton

15 - Manteno vs. 18 - Tolono (Unity)

16 - Coal City vs. 17 - Murphysboro

 

[Snetsrak61]

4A
(rest to come tomorrow)

1 - Chicago (Sullivan) vs. 32 - Chicago (Noble/Bulls)

2 - Breese (Central) vs. 31 -Harrisburg

3 - Chicago (South Shore) vs. 30 - Chicago (Senn)

4 - Waterloo (H.S.) vs. 29 - Decatur (St. Teresa)

5 - Chicago (Marshall) [Coop] vs. 28 - Chicago (Goode)

6 - Palos Heights (Chicago Christian) vs. 27 - Taylorville

7 - Chicago (North Lawndale Charter) vs. 26 - Marengo

8 - Richmond (R.-Burton) vs. 25 - Chicago (C. Hope Academy)

9 - Mahomet (Seymour) vs. 24 - Sandwich

10 - Chicago (Agricultural Science) vs. 23 - Chicago (Curie)

11 - Chicago (Simeon) vs. 22 - Jacksonville (H.S.)

12 - Woodstock (North) vs. 21 - Mt. Zion

13 - Roxana vs. 20 - Chicago (Clemente)

14 - Highland vs. 19 - Johnsburg

15 - Chicago (Corliss) [Coop] vs. 18 - Chicago (Prosser)

16 - Columbia vs. 17 - Chicago (Mather)

 

[Snetsrak61]

Class 5A

1 - Sycamore (H.S.) vs. 32 - Chicago (Kenwood)

2 - Belleville (Althoff Catholic) vs. 31 -Aurora (Marmion Academy)

3 - Quincy (Notre Dame) vs. 30 - Springfield (H.S.)

4 - Normal (Community) vs. 29 - Chicago (Perspectives/Leadership) [Coop]

5 - Rochelle vs. 28 - Springfield (Sacred Heart-Griffin)

6 - Chicago (Lincoln Park) vs. 27 - Collinsville

7 - Rochester vs. 26 - Chicago (Westinghouse College Prep)

8 - Chatham (Glenwood) vs. 25 - Maple Park (Kaneland)

9 - Bloomington (H.S.) vs. 24 - Morris

10 - Peoria (H.S.) vs. 23 - Marion (H.S.)

11 - Washington vs. 22 - Dunlap

12 - Cahokia (H.S.) vs. 21 - Chicago (King)

13 - Pekin vs. 20 - Calumet City (Thornton Fractional North)

14 - Wauconda vs. 19 - Metamora

15 - Troy (Triad) vs. 18 - Centralia (H.S.)

16 - Chicago (Dyett) vs. 17 - Normal (University)

 

[CIMRY90]

I noted a few 6A teams have dropped down to 5A due to their football enrollment being less than their actual enrollment.

 

[Snetsrak61]

I noted a few 6A teams have dropped down to 5A due to their football enrollment being less than their actual enrollment.

I'll post a full list summarizing who changed classes at the end (for qualifiers and non qualifiers alike). Gotta do a little more data manipulation on that though. Maybe not wrap up til tomorrow.

 

[DeanOfSelection]

I always liked FE since it placed teams in the class representative of their schedule.

 

[Snetsrak61]

I always liked FE since it placed teams in the class representative of their schedule.

It was the only redeeming characteristic of districts proposal too. You'd qualify for playoff classification based on the character of the schools you play.

So yea, football enrollment helps nudge that direction. And it's very easy to administer and doesn't come with all the negatives of districts. With a little more complexity I think you could additionally do some conference multiplying (for ESCC/CCL but also some of the stronger/weaker public conferences). Could also make seeding follow more of a strength of schedule logic in a fairly impartial way too.

 

[ramblinman]

Its been tossed around before, but I don't think I've seen anyone take a formal attempt at laying out what it would look like.

Below posts will be a look at a Football Enrollment methodology.

Basic Method;
1. Your Football enrollment is your opponents enrollment averaged, with the top and bottom enrollment eliminated
2. I excluded out of state opponents
3. This was a judgement call, but I multiplied all private school enrollment figures. I think if a modernized FE were to be implemented this would need to be looked at. It didn't have huge impact if I did it on unmultiplied. For the private schools, an average change of 192 to the football enrollment number. Seemed to impact the smaller private schools more than the CCL/ESCC guys.

Results by class will be in the post below. Here are the cutoffs though compared to the current enrollment cutoffs in 2024

Class	Current Range	FE Range
1A	(0 - 292.5)	(220 - 325)
2A	(296.5 - 403.5)	(325 - 436)
3A	(406.5 - 542.5)	(439 - 580)
4A	(553 - 844)	(581 - 997)
5A	(848 - 1,272.5),	(1,017 - 1,373)
6A	(1,723 - 1,802)	(1,377 - 1,666)
7A	(1,604 - 2,156)	(1,666 - 2,173)
8A	(2,190 +)	(2,190 +)

Where would the 16 state finalists have been? So we'd have a least 4 new finalists. And potentially more depending how brackets were to shake out. YES, private schools have inflated. Not to be unexpected, but I'll point out that at least a couple traditional power public school programs / recent state finalists have as well: Rochester 5A, Cary Grove 7A, Prairie Ridge 7A, Kankakee 7A (probably more, but those were a few I noticed)
1A - Lena (L.-Winslow)
2A - Maroa (M.-Forsyth)
3A - Monticello
4A - Palos Heights (Chicago Christian)
4A - Mt. Zion
5A - Belleville (Althoff Catholic)
6A - LaGrange Park (Nazareth Academy)
6A - Chicago (DePaul)
6A - Lombard (Montini)
7A - Wilmette (Loyola Academy)
7A - Joliet (Catholic Academy)
7A - Chicago (Mt. Carmel)
7A - Geneva
7A - Batavia
8A - East St. Louis (Sr.)
8A - Elmhurst (York)

Classes to follow;

I never liked FBE when we had it, and I still don't.

You are going to get people foaming at the mouth when they see FBE puts Loyola in 7A. Look at Althoff and Chicago Christian above. It puts Althoff FOUR classes above their actual enrollment and Chicago Christian two classes. Look at ESL in 8A. Think that goofy conference of theirs is gonna be happy with that?

Lastly, it wreaks havoc on non-conference game scheduling for larger schools.

 

[Snetsrak61]

I never liked FBE when we had it, and I still don't.

You are going to get people foaming at the mouth when they see FBE puts Loyola in 7A. Look at Althoff and Chicago Christian above. It puts Althoff FOUR classes above their actual enrollment and Chicago Christian two classes. Look at ESL in 8A. Think that goofy conference of theirs is gonna be happy with that?

Lastly, it wreaks havoc on non-conference game scheduling for larger schools.

I'd expect Loyola would still be allowed to opt up and would.

GOOD that ESL can stick it to their conference mates who are powerless to stop them.

CCL/ESCC might need a carve out to handle differently. Not sure any other conference spans so many classes so nearly everyone just gets pulled to 6A/7A as a result... Could be tweaked, I'm sure.

Obviously no system is perfect. There's fair criticisms for FE enrollment and I think the process for extreme outliers could be looked at. Like perhaps actual enrollmemt to FE could be capped at a % +/- or number of classes climbed/descended.

All that said I think it would be vastly preferable to straight enrollment.

 

[gobears25]

would it be easy to run the same numbers removing the highest and lowest enrollment opponent? i'd be interested to see how much one big outlier could be affecting certain schools.

 

[Snetsrak61]

would it be easy to run the same numbers removing the highest and lowest enrollment opponent? i'd be interested to see how much one big outlier could be affecting certain schools.

These numbers are with top and bottom eliminated.

 

[gobears25]

These numbers are with top and bottom eliminated.

if only i could read, thanks 😂

 

[crusader_of_90]

I never liked FBE when we had it, and I still don't.

You are going to get people foaming at the mouth when they see FBE puts Loyola in 7A. Look at Althoff and Chicago Christian above. It puts Althoff FOUR classes above their actual enrollment and Chicago Christian two classes. Look at ESL in 8A. Think that goofy conference of theirs is gonna be happy with that?

Lastly, it wreaks havoc on non-conference game scheduling for larger schools.

When FBE was first being discussed it was called the Althoff rule. As Coach Schott always said, we play the best we can. No one seems to mind when we go 5-4 and miss the playoffs.

 

[Snetsrak61]

6A

1 - Chicago (Whitney Young) vs. 32 - Summit (Argo)

2 - Quincy (Sr.) vs. 31 -Geneseo

3 - Chicago (Marist) vs. 30 - Tinley Park (H.S.)

4 - Lombard (Glenbard East) vs. 29 - Chicago (Payton)

5 - Rockton (Hononegah) vs. 28 - Sterling (H.S.)

6 - Belvidere (North) vs. 27 - Huntley

7 - LaGrange Park (Nazareth Academy) vs. 26 - Freeport (H.S.)

8 - Wheaton (St. Francis) vs. 25 - Peoria (Notre Dame)

9 - Chicago (St. Rita) vs. 24 - Country Club Hills (Hillcrest)

10 - Lombard (Montini) vs. 23 - Burbank (St. Laurence)

11 - Normal (Community West) vs. 22 - Oak Forest

12 - Machesney Park (Harlem) vs. 21 - Fox Lake (Grant)

13 - Moline (H.S.) vs. 20 - Rockford (Guilford)

14 - Antioch vs. 19 - Chicago (DePaul)

15 - Grayslake (North) vs. 18 - Lisle (Benet Academy)

16 - Palos Heights (Shepard) vs. 17 - Lemont (H.S.)

 

[Snetsrak61]

7A

1 - Cary (Grove) vs. 32 - Skokie (Niles West)

2 - St. Charles (North) vs. 31 -Joliet (West)

3 - Oak Lawn (Richards) vs. 30 - Rolling Meadows

4 - Batavia vs. 29 - Rockford (Boylan Catholic)

5 - Geneva vs. 28 - Chicago (Amundsen)

6 - Kankakee (Sr.) vs. 27 - Wheaton (Warrenville South)

7 - Palatine (Fremd) vs. 26 - Bensenville (Fenton)

8 - Chicago (Morgan Park) vs. 25 - West Chicago (H.S.)

9 - Des Plaines (Maine West) vs. 24 - Glen Ellyn (Glenbard South)

10 - Wilmette (Loyola Academy) vs. 23 - Hoffman Estates (H.S.)

11 - Oak Park (Fenwick) vs. 22 - Crete (Monee)

12 - Algonquin (Jacobs) vs. 21 - Belleville (East)

13 - Burlington (Central) vs. 20 - Chicago (Brother Rice)

14 - Crystal Lake (Prairie Ridge) vs. 19 - Edwardsville (H.S.)

15 - Chicago (Taft) vs. 18 - Joliet (Catholic Academy)

16 - Bradley (B.-Bourbonnais) vs. 17 - Chicago (Mt. Carmel)

 

[Snetsrak61]

8A

1 - Frankfort (Lincoln-Way East) vs. 32 - Aurora (Waubonsie Valley)

2 - LaGrange (Lyons) vs. 31 -Deerfield (H.S.)

3 - Oswego (H.S.) vs. 30 - Glenview (Glenbrook South)

4 - Aurora (West Aurora) vs. 29 - Gurnee (Warren)

5 - Palatine (H.S.) vs. 28 - Schaumburg (H.S.)

6 - Naperville (Central) vs. 27 - Orland Park (Sandburg)

7 - East St. Louis (Sr.) vs. 26 - Villa Park (Willowbrook)

8 - Libertyville vs. 25 - Tinley Park (Andrew)

9 - Lincolnshire (Stevenson) vs. 24 - New Lenox (Lincoln-Way Central)

10 - Downers Grove (North) vs. 23 - South Elgin

11 - Barrington vs. 22 - Arlington Heights (Hersey)

12 - Naperville (North) vs. 21 - Park Ridge (Maine South)

13 - Elmhurst (York) vs. 20 - New Lenox (Lincoln-Way West)

14 - Mt. Prospect (Prospect) vs. 19 - Plainfield (South)

15 - Downers Grove (South) vs. 18 - Addison (A. Trail)

16 - Lake Forest (H.S.) vs. 17 - Minooka

 

[Snetsrak61]

Estimate for Non-playoff qualifiers.
NOTE: All privates are multiplied. If they look off that is likely why. It is not adjusted for SF/opt ups.

Part 1 of 4

School	FE Avg	FE Class
Beardstown	226.79	1A
Mendon (Unity) [Unity-Payson Coop]	234.57	1A
Pleasant Hill [Coop]	236.36	1A
White Hall (North Greene)	245.07	1A
Havana	247.36	1A
Concord (Triopia) [Coop]	248.21	1A
Oneida (ROWVA) [Coop]	248.64	1A
Abingdon (A.-Avon)	249.50	1A
Monmouth (United)	252.79	1A
Argenta (A.-Oreana)	258.21	1A
Oakland [Tri-County Coop]	260.43	1A
Cerro Gordo [C.G.-Bement Coop]	263.14	1A
Arcola	264.64	1A
Minonk (Fieldcrest)	264.86	1A
Macon (Meridian)	265.29	1A
Heyworth	266.00	1A
Fisher	266.79	1A
Villa Grove	267.21	1A
Astoria [South Fulton Coop]	270.14	1A
Forreston	273.75	1A
Fulton (H.S.)	274.93	1A
Dakota	289.64	1A
Morrison	292.14	1A
Sparta [Coop]	310.75	1A
Hoopeston (H. Area) [Coop]	315.07	1A
Georgetown (Ridge Farm) [Coop]	317.21	1A
Westmont	320.24	1A
Christopher [C.-Zeigler-Royalton Coop]	322.07	1A
Gilman (Iroquois West)	323.57	1A
Watseka	324.21	1A
Trenton (Wesclin)	330.71	2A
Lewistown [Coop]	333.71	2A
Hamilton [West Hancock Coop]	340.21	2A
Knoxville	340.64	2A
McLeansboro (Hamilton County)	341.33	2A
Eldorado	343.75	2A
Manlius (Bureau Valley)	345.71	2A
Carlyle	346.00	2A
Colfax (Ridgeview) [Ridgeview-Lexington Coop]	347.29	2A
Albion (Edwards County)	350.92	2A
Tremont	355.86	2A
Madison	384.18	2A
Clinton	384.36	2A
Aurora (Central Catholic)	393.41	2A
Petersburg (PORTA) [Coop]	395.07	2A
Chicago (Bogan)	395.14	2A
Pleasant Plains	401.29	2A
Auburn	402.71	2A
Aledo (Mercer County)	409.79	2A
Athens	415.64	2A
Staunton [Coop]	417.14	2A
Newton	418.64	2A
Litchfield [Coop]	421.50	2A
Marshall	421.50	2A
Port Byron (Riverdale)	425.21	2A
Orion	426.29	2A
Pittsfield	427.50	2A
Hillsboro	428.93	2A
Peru (St. Bede)	430.41	2A
Lawrenceville	431.57	2A
Spring Valley (Hall) [Coop]	433.86	2A
Piasa (Southwestern)	438.00	2A

 

[Snetsrak61]

Part 2 of 4 non-qualifier estimates

School	FE Avg	FE Class
Gillespie	441.29	3A
Riverton	445.00	3A
Mendota	448.29	3A
Sherrard	451.93	3A
Paris	458.92	3A
Melrose Park (Walther Christian)	459.38	3A
Rock Falls	461.26	3A
Chicago (Englewood STEM)	472.43	3A
Poplar Grove (North Boone)	475.19	3A
Pinckneyville	477.07	3A
Rockford (Christian)	482.93	3A
Winnebago	485.97	3A
Chicago (Harlan)	495.75	3A
Kankakee (McNamara)	496.50	3A
Chicago (Phoenix)	499.64	3A
Robinson	505.14	3A
Herscher	513.91	3A
Anna (A.-Jonesboro) [Coop]	514.29	3A
Chillicothe (Illinois Valley Central)	514.47	3A
Chicago (Christ the King)	531.54	3A
Chicago (Noble/UIC)	532.07	3A
Metropolis (Massac County) [Coop]	532.75	3A
Alton (Marquette)	534.08	3A
Rantoul	536.85	3A
Braidwood (Reed-Custer)	537.71	3A
Lisle (Sr.)	543.07	3A
Chicago (C. Military Academy-Bronzeville)	544.79	3A
Pontiac	547.06	3A
Elgin (St. Edward)	565.25	3A
Woodstock (Marian)	566.03	3A
Chicago (Collins) [Coop]	567.07	3A
Herrin (H.S.)	568.93	3A
Streator (Twp.)	578.64	3A
Chicago (UCCS/Woodlawn)	585.08	4A
Breese (Mater Dei)	585.42	4A
Freeburg	600.60	4A
Wood River (East Alton-W.R.)	609.79	4A
Chicago (Kelly)	629.79	4A
Chicago (Dunbar)	634.67	4A
Salem	642.43	4A
Harvard	647.21	4A
Chicago (Bowen) [Coop]	648.21	4A
Chicago (Richards)	663.93	4A
Chicago (Noble/Rowe-Clark)	664.33	4A
Chicago (CICS/Longwood)	702.36	4A
Woodstock (H.S.)	703.08	4A
Chicago (Fenger)	703.79	4A
Chicago (Catalyst/Maria)	708.00	4A
Chicago (Carver)	714.29	4A
Chicago (Noble/Hansberry)	731.71	4A
Effingham (H.S.)	736.14	4A
Plano	736.29	4A
Chicago (Julian)	739.67	4A
Chicago (Little Village)	753.71	4A
Chicago (Noble/Comer)	766.57	4A
Chicago (Back of the Yards)	773.14	4A
Charleston	779.50	4A
Chicago (Noble/ITW Speer)	782.21	4A
Chicago (Noble/Pritzker)	791.64	4A
Chicago (Lake View)	800.21	4A
Bethalto (Civic Memorial)	805.21	4A
Chicago (Steinmetz)	809.63	4A
Jerseyville (Jersey)	810.93	4A
Chicago (Solorio Academy)	821.86	4A
Chicago (Noble/Rauner)	825.00	4A
Chicago (Washington)	825.43	4A
Chicago (Orr)	826.86	4A
Chicago (Noble/DRW Trading)	828.00	4A
Mattoon	834.14	4A
Chicago (Marine)	837.29	4A
Chicago (North Grand)	857.92	4A
Chicago (Noble/Golder)	878.50	4A
Chicago (Uplift) [Coop]	881.50	4A
Chicago (Schurz)	885.79	4A
Chicago (C. Academy) [Coop]	898.57	4A
Chicago (Noble/Muchin)	900.14	4A
Springfield (Southeast)	901.13	4A
Springfield (Lanphier)	916.85	4A
Mascoutah	926.57	4A
Decatur (MacArthur)	928.22	4A
Chicago (Hubbard)	928.64	4A
Chicago (Von Steuben)	960.71	4A
Decatur (Eisenhower)	964.29	4A
Lincoln	966.50	4A
Chicago (Noble/Academy)	979.07	4A
Chicago (C. Vocational)	984.36	4A
Ottawa (Twp.)	984.57	4A
Chicago (Lindblom)	986.92	4A

 

[Snetsrak61]

Part 3 of 4 non-playoff qualifier estimates

School	FE Avg	FE Class
Chicago (DuSable) [Coop]	999.50	5A
Chicago (Urban Prep/Bronzeville) [Coop]	1,012.25	5A
Canton	1,028.21	5A
Chicago (Foreman)	1,036.14	5A
Chicago (Gage Park)	1,039.57	5A
Chicago (Crane)	1,050.86	5A
Morton	1,059.36	5A
Chicago (Hyde Park)	1,064.44	5A
Bartonville (Limestone)	1,093.00	5A
Chicago (Brooks)	1,118.29	5A
East Peoria	1,135.43	5A
Granite City	1,139.64	5A
Carbondale (H.S.)	1,152.00	5A
Peoria (Richwoods)	1,203.97	5A
LaSalle (Peru)	1,213.93	5A
Mt. Vernon (H.S.)	1,244.58	5A
Champaign (Central)	1,266.83	5A
Chicago (Noble/Johnson)	1,273.93	5A
Arlington Heights (St. Viator)	1,298.38	5A
Urbana (H.S.)	1,314.57	5A
Peoria (Manual)	1,324.25	5A
East Moline (United)	1,325.25	5A
Galesburg (H.S.)	1,336.21	5A
Chicago (Clark) [Coop]	1,362.36	5A
Elmwood Park	1,369.79	5A
Mundelein (Carmel)	1,370.81	5A
Chicago (Leo)	1,400.36	6A
Danville (H.S.)	1,406.57	6A
Champaign (Centennial)	1,421.86	6A
Niles (Notre Dame)	1,429.26	6A
Lansing (Thornton Fractional South)	1,437.50	6A
Lake Villa (Lakes)	1,438.64	6A
Chicago Heights (Marian)	1,440.70	6A
Grayslake (Central)	1,454.42	6A
Round Lake	1,455.50	6A
Midlothian (Bremen)	1,468.36	6A
Dolton (Thornridge)	1,509.71	6A
Chicago (De La Salle)	1,512.19	6A
Chicago Heights (Bloom Twp.)	1,516.92	6A
Richton Park (Rich Township)	1,519.15	6A
North Chicago	1,522.79	6A
Norridge (Ridgewood)	1,539.14	6A
Evergreen Park	1,541.29	6A
Rockford (Jefferson)	1,555.18	6A
Elmhurst (IC Catholic)	1,565.29	6A
Rockford (Auburn)	1,565.40	6A
Blue Island (Eisenhower)	1,583.14	6A
Rock Island (H.S.)	1,591.21	6A
Rockford (East)	1,602.04	6A
Burbank (Reavis)	1,606.14	6A
Riverside (R.-Brookfield)	1,641.79	6A
Chicago (St. Patrick)	1,647.48	6A
Belvidere (H.S.)	1,647.54	6A
Carpentersville (Dundee-Crown)	1,664.71	6A

 

[Snetsrak61]

Part 4 of 4 non-playoff qualifier estimates.

School	FE Avg	FE Class
Chicago (Lane)	1,676.86	7A
McHenry	1,708.79	7A
Chicago (Phillips)	1,749.02	7A
Hampshire	1,753.86	7A
Alton (Sr.)	1,754.93	7A
Oak Lawn (Community)	1,764.79	7A
Vernon Hills	1,785.86	7A
Chicago (St. Ignatius)	1,791.21	7A
Crystal Lake (Central)	1,808.50	7A
Crystal Lake (South)	1,827.21	7A
Wheeling	1,866.43	7A
New Lenox (Providence Catholic)	1,883.25	7A
Buffalo Grove	1,914.29	7A
South Holland (Thornwood)	1,915.50	7A
St. Charles (East)	1,916.71	7A
O'Fallon (H.S.)	1,938.90	7A
Skokie (Niles North)	1,948.93	7A
Belleville (West)	1,962.63	7A
Carol Stream (Glenbard North)	1,998.07	7A
Park Ridge (Maine East)	2,007.14	7A
Harvey (Thornton)	2,013.50	7A
Elk Grove Village (E.G.)	2,020.50	7A
Wheaton (North)	2,037.21	7A
Roselle (Lake Park)	2,042.57	7A
Highland Park	2,044.29	7A
Franklin Park-Northlake (Leyden)	2,082.79	7A
DeKalb	2,097.57	7A
Aurora (East)	2,135.86	7A
Berwyn-Cicero (Morton)	2,140.43	7A
Palos Hills (Stagg)	2,200.14	8A
Elgin (H.S.)	2,237.21	8A
Darien (Hinsdale South)	2,238.57	8A
Oak Park (River Forest)	2,250.28	8A
Waukegan (H.S.)	2,266.57	8A
Hoffman Estates (Conant)	2,267.79	8A
Evanston (Twp.)	2,313.00	8A
Joliet (Central)	2,355.36	8A
Elgin (Larkin)	2,356.92	8A
Oswego (East)	2,394.29	8A
Winnetka (New Trier)	2,402.14	8A
Streamwood	2,403.50	8A
Hillside (Proviso West)	2,435.00	8A
Bolingbrook	2,457.57	8A
Mundelein (H.S.)	2,477.07	8A
Lockport (Twp.)	2,495.29	8A
Aurora (Metea Valley)	2,516.71	8A
Romeoville (H.S.)	2,523.36	8A
Bartlett	2,593.00	8A
Plainfield (East)	2,609.64	8A
Zion (Z.-Benton)	2,679.86	8A
Plainfield (Central)	2,688.57	8A
Naperville (Neuqua Valley)	2,696.14	8A
Northbrook (Glenbrook North)	2,725.57	8A
Maywood (Proviso East)	2,809.29	8A
Flossmoor (Homewood-F.)	2,822.64	8A
Glen Ellyn (Glenbard West)	2,824.44	8A
Yorkville (H.S.)	2,828.71	8A
Lake Zurich	2,865.86	8A
Plainfield (North)	2,891.29	8A
Hinsdale (Central)	2,943.57	8A

 

[Snetsrak61]

All schools with a classification change. In total 270 schools were impacted. Most of these (191 were 1 class up/down). 79 moved 2 or more classes. And it would perhaps be worth putting some limits on how far up/down a school could go off actual enrollment.

Part 1 of 4

School	FE Avg	FE Class	Actual Enrollment	Current Class	Change Total
Beardstown	226.79	1A​	422​	3A​	2
Mendon (Unity) [Unity-Payson Coop]	234.57	1A​	332.5​	2A​	1
Niantic (Sangamon Valley) [Coop]	243.14	1A​	359​	2A​	1
Sullivan [Sullivan-Okaw Valley Coop]	243.14	1A​	487​	3A​	2
Arthur (A.-Lovington-Atwood-Hammond)	251.14	1A​	303​	2A​	1
Warrensburg (W.-Latham)	262.07	1A​	313​	2A​	1
Minonk (Fieldcrest)	264.86	1A​	293.5​	2A​	1
Pecatonica [Du-Pec Coop]	268.86	1A​	449.5​	3A​	2
Lanark (Eastland) [Eastland-Pearl City Coop]	275.57	1A​	330​	2A​	1
Sparta [Coop]	310.75	1A​	455​	3A​	2
Hoopeston (H. Area) [Coop]	315.07	1A​	463​	3A​	2
Westville	315.07	1A​	364​	2A​	1
Bismarck (B.-Henning-Rossville-Alvin)	316.21	1A​	356​	2A​	1
Georgetown (Ridge Farm) [Coop]	317.21	1A​	349​	2A​	1
Westmont	320.24	1A​	377​	2A​	1
Christopher [C.-Zeigler-Royalton Coop]	322.07	1A​	382.5​	2A​	1
Momence	323.21	1A​	307​	2A​	1
Gilman (Iroquois West)	323.57	1A​	304.5​	2A​	1
Watseka	324.21	1A​	300​	2A​	1
Fithian (Oakwood)	324.71	1A​	296.5​	2A​	1
Catlin (Salt Fork)	325.29	2A​	246​	1A​	(1)
Clifton (Central)	325.29	2A​	292.5​	1A​	(1)
Fairfield	333.67	2A​	418.5​	3A​	1
Macomb	346.71	2A​	584.5​	4A​	2
Albion (Edwards County)	350.92	2A​	238.5​	1A​	(1)
Sesser (Valier) [Coop]	350.92	2A​	279​	1A​	(1)
Dupo	358.70	2A​	258​	1A​	(1)
Ottawa (Marquette)	369.04	2A​	254.1​	1A​	(1)
Eureka	373.13	2A​	445.5​	3A​	1
Madison	384.18	2A​	155​	1A​	(1)
Clinton	384.36	2A​	474.5​	3A​	1
Stanford (Olympia)	391.79	2A​	500​	3A​	1
Aurora (Central Catholic)	393.41	2A​	796.95​	4A​	2
Petersburg (PORTA) [Coop]	395.07	2A​	445.5​	3A​	1
Chicago (Bogan)	395.14	2A​	738.5​	4A​	2
New Berlin [Coop]	395.21	2A​	444.5​	3A​	1
Williamsville	401.43	2A​	468.5​	3A​	1
Kewanee (H.S.)	416.25	2A​	567.5​	4A​	2
Greenville	417.14	2A​	542​	3A​	1
Staunton [Coop]	417.14	2A​	557.5​	4A​	2
Casey (Westfield)	419.93	2A​	231.5​	1A​	(1)
Litchfield [Coop]	421.50	2A​	511.5​	3A​	1
Hillsboro	428.93	2A​	459.5​	3A​	1
Peru (St. Bede)	430.41	2A​	457.875​	3A​	1
Spring Valley (Hall) [Coop]	433.86	2A​	660.5​	4A​	2
Carlinville	435.71	2A​	412​	3A​	1

 

[Snetsrak61]

All changes part 2 of 4

School	FE Avg	FE Class	Actual Enrollment	Current Class	Change Total
Pana (H.S.)	439.29	3A​	387​	2A​	(1)
Vandalia	440.14	3A​	381​	2A​	(1)
Gillespie	441.29	3A​	351​	2A​	(1)
Virden (North Mac)	441.29	3A​	373​	2A​	(1)
Riverton	445.00	3A​	381.5​	2A​	(1)
Melrose Park (Walther Christian)	459.38	3A​	337.425​	2A​	(1)
Dixon (H.S.)	461.26	3A​	760.5​	4A​	1
Rock Falls	461.26	3A​	576.5​	4A​	1
Chicago (Englewood STEM)	472.43	3A​	1200.5​	5A​	2
Olney (Richland County)	476.93	3A​	709.5​	4A​	1
Rockford (Christian)	482.93	3A​	305​	2A​	(1)
Winnebago	485.97	3A​	403.5​	2A​	(1)
Chicago (Harlan)	495.75	3A​	295.5​	2A​	(1)
Chicago (Phoenix)	499.64	3A​	559​	4A​	1
Anna (A.-Jonesboro) [Coop]	514.29	3A​	575​	4A​	1
Chillicothe (Illinois Valley Central)	514.47	3A​	614.5​	4A​	1
Aurora (Christian)	516.50	3A​	200​	1A​	(2)
Chicago (Kennedy)	530.57	3A​	1476​	6A​	3
Chicago (Christ the King)	531.54	3A​	612.15​	4A​	1
Chicago (Noble/UIC)	532.07	3A​	957​	5A​	2
Carterville	532.64	3A​	633​	4A​	1
Metropolis (Massac County) [Coop]	532.75	3A​	614.5​	4A​	1
West Chicago (Wheaton Academy)	533.09	3A​	1104.675​	5A​	2
Alton (Marquette)	534.08	3A​	693​	4A​	1
Manteno	536.64	3A​	616.5​	4A​	1
Rantoul	536.85	3A​	790​	4A​	1
Chicago (C. Military Academy-Bronzeville)	544.79	3A​	260​	1A​	(2)
Pontiac	547.06	3A​	677.5​	4A​	1
Coal City	553.57	3A​	620​	4A​	1
Woodstock (Marian)	566.03	3A​	641.85​	4A​	1
Chicago (Collins) [Coop]	567.07	3A​	310.5​	2A​	(1)
Herrin (H.S.)	568.93	3A​	670​	4A​	1
Murphysboro	577.50	3A​	575.5​	4A​	1
Streator (Twp.)	578.64	3A​	817​	4A​	1
Harrisburg	580.71	3A​	553​	4A​	1
Chicago (UCCS/Woodlawn)	585.08	4A​	380​	2A​	(2)
Palos Heights (Chicago Christian)	589.80	4A​	521.4​	3A​	(1)
Decatur (St. Teresa)	592.37	4A​	372.9​	2A​	(2)
Chicago (C. Hope Academy)	608.54	4A​	452.925​	3A​	(1)
Chicago (Kelly)	629.79	4A​	1745​	6A​	2
Chicago (Dunbar)	634.67	4A​	449.5​	3A​	(1)
Chicago (Bowen) [Coop]	648.21	4A​	444​	3A​	(1)
Roxana	655.50	4A​	520​	3A​	(1)

 

[mc140]

It puts Althoff FOUR classes above their actual enrollment and Chicago Christian two classes.

Althoff is a "1a" school with the biggest Offensive line in the state title game per IHSA website.

 

[Snetsrak61]

All changes part 3 of 4

School	FE Avg	FE Class	Actual Enrollment	Current Class	Change Total
Chicago (Richards)	663.93	4A​	233.5​	1A​	(3)
Chicago (Noble/Rowe-Clark)	664.33	4A​	386.5​	2A​	(2)
Chicago (CICS/Longwood)	702.36	4A​	388​	2A​	(2)
Woodstock (H.S.)	703.08	4A​	1017.5​	5A​	1
Chicago (Fenger)	703.79	4A​	260​	1A​	(3)
Chicago (Carver)	714.29	4A​	421​	3A​	(1)
Chicago (Noble/Hansberry)	731.71	4A​	492.5​	3A​	(1)
Chicago (Julian)	739.67	4A​	389​	2A​	(2)
Chicago (Little Village)	753.71	4A​	1278​	6A​	2
Chicago (Marshall) [Coop]	761.79	4A​	418.5​	3A​	(1)
Woodstock (North)	762.71	4A​	936​	5A​	1
Chicago (Back of the Yards)	773.14	4A​	1063.5​	5A​	1
Chicago (Senn)	775.29	4A​	1533.5​	6A​	2
Chicago (Noble/ITW Speer)	782.21	4A​	1141.5​	5A​	1
Chicago (Noble/Pritzker)	791.64	4A​	974.5​	5A​	1
Chicago (Lake View)	800.21	4A​	1392​	6A​	2
Chicago (Curie)	801.57	4A​	3019​	8A​	4
Chicago (Goode)	807.93	4A​	944.5​	5A​	1
Chicago (Steinmetz)	809.63	4A​	1148​	5A​	1
Chicago (Solorio Academy)	821.86	4A​	1239​	5A​	1
Chicago (Washington)	825.43	4A​	1516.5​	6A​	2
Chicago (Orr)	826.86	4A​	214​	1A​	(3)
Chicago (Noble/DRW Trading)	828.00	4A​	305.5​	2A​	(2)
Mattoon	834.14	4A​	934​	5A​	1
Chicago (Simeon)	848.57	4A​	1374.5​	6A​	2
Chicago (Prosser)	855.29	4A​	1161​	5A​	1
Chicago (North Grand)	857.92	4A​	1060.5​	5A​	1
Highland	862.43	4A​	897.5​	5A​	1
Chicago (Schurz)	885.79	4A​	1448​	6A​	2
Chicago (C. Academy) [Coop]	898.57	4A​	893.5​	5A​	1
Mahomet (Seymour)	899.57	4A​	996​	5A​	1
Chicago (Noble/Muchin)	900.14	4A​	968​	5A​	1
Springfield (Southeast)	901.13	4A​	1223.5​	5A​	1
Springfield (Lanphier)	916.85	4A​	1113.5​	5A​	1
Mascoutah	926.57	4A​	1162​	5A​	1
Decatur (MacArthur)	928.22	4A​	1145.5​	5A​	1
Chicago (Hubbard)	928.64	4A​	1765​	6A​	2
Chicago (Von Steuben)	960.71	4A​	1673.5​	6A​	2
Decatur (Eisenhower)	964.29	4A​	1022.5​	5A​	1
Chicago (North Lawndale Charter)	966.86	4A​	458​	3A​	(1)
Chicago (Noble/Bulls)	974.14	4A​	1182.5​	5A​	1
Jacksonville (H.S.)	975.49	4A​	882​	5A​	1
Ottawa (Twp.)	984.57	4A​	1233.5​	5A​	1
Chicago (Lindblom)	986.92	4A​	1143.5​	5A​	1
Chicago (Corliss) [Coop]	993.71	4A​	922.5​	5A​	1
Chicago (Mather)	997.43	4A​	1660.5​	6A​	2

 

[Snetsrak61]

All changes Part 4 of ?

School	FE Avg	FE Class	Actual Enrollment	Current Class	Change Total
Chicago (DuSable) [Coop]	999.50	5A​	530.5​	3A​	(2)
Chicago (Urban Prep/Bronzeville) [Coop]	1,012.25	5A​	531.5​	3A​	(2)
Chatham (Glenwood)	1,016.65	5A​	1466​	6A​	1
Chicago (Lincoln Park)	1,024.50	5A​	2088.5​	7A​	2
Canton	1,028.21	5A​	650​	4A​	(1)
Chicago (Foreman)	1,036.14	5A​	582.5​	4A​	(1)
Chicago (King)	1,036.36	5A​	542.5​	3A​	(2)
Chicago (Gage Park)	1,039.57	5A​	308.5​	2A​	(3)
Chicago (Crane)	1,050.86	5A​	417​	3A​	(2)
Springfield (H.S.)	1,063.34	5A​	1479​	6A​	1
Chicago (Hyde Park)	1,064.44	5A​	714.5​	4A​	(1)
Aurora (Marmion Academy)	1,065.07	5A​	1717.65​	6A​	1
Chicago (Dyett)	1,066.79	5A​	554.5​	4A​	(1)
Normal (University)	1,077.07	5A​	608.5​	4A​	(1)
Quincy (Notre Dame)	1,077.49	5A​	624.525​	4A​	(1)
Rochester	1,117.90	5A​	754​	4A​	(1)
Chicago (Kenwood)	1,118.83	5A​	1939.5​	7A​	2
Collinsville	1,126.64	5A​	1901.5​	7A​	2
Washington	1,133.43	5A​	1429.5​	6A​	1
Granite City	1,139.64	5A​	1810.5​	7A​	2
Maple Park (Kaneland)	1,163.86	5A​	1326.5​	6A​	1
Dunlap	1,165.14	5A​	1340.5​	6A​	1
Bloomington (H.S.)	1,173.75	5A​	1489​	6A​	1
Peoria (Richwoods)	1,203.97	5A​	1397.5​	6A​	1
Pekin	1,216.14	5A​	1820.5​	7A​	2
Cahokia (H.S.)	1,243.10	5A​	794​	4A​	(1)
Belleville (Althoff Catholic)	1,253.35	5A​	476.025​	3A​	(2)
Champaign (Central)	1,266.83	5A​	1440.5​	6A​	1
Chicago (Noble/Johnson)	1,273.93	5A​	505​	3A​	(2)
Arlington Heights (St. Viator)	1,298.38	5A​	1351.35​	6A​	1
Peoria (Manual)	1,324.25	5A​	593.5​	4A​	(1)
East Moline (United)	1,325.25	5A​	1740​	6A​	1
Normal (Community)	1,343.93	5A​	2096​	7A​	2
Chicago (Clark) [Coop]	1,362.36	5A​	744​	4A​	(1)
Mundelein (Carmel)	1,370.81	5A​	1772.925​	6A​	1
Wauconda	1,373.00	5A​	1385​	6A​	1

 

[Snetsrak61]

All changes part 5 of ?

School	FE Avg	FE Class	Actual Enrollment	Current Class	Change Total
Peoria (Notre Dame)	1,377.00	6A​	929.775​	5A​	(1)
Wheaton (St. Francis)	1,383.75	6A​	1130.25​	5A​	(1)
Quincy (Sr.)	1,398.08	6A​	1876​	7A​	1
Chicago (Leo)	1,400.36	6A​	636.9​	4A​	(2)
Geneseo	1,416.00	6A​	840.5​	4A​	(2)
Niles (Notre Dame)	1,429.26	6A​	2285.25​	8A​	2
Lansing (Thornton Fractional South)	1,437.50	6A​	1872​	7A​	1
Chicago (Payton)	1,443.07	6A​	1204.5​	5A​	(1)
Country Club Hills (Hillcrest)	1,449.64	6A​	1175​	5A​	(1)
Round Lake	1,455.50	6A​	2196.5​	8A​	2
LaGrange Park (Nazareth Academy)	1,459.66	6A​	1180.58​	5A​	(1)
Chicago (Marist)	1,465.87	6A​	2662.28​	8A​	2
Lisle (Benet Academy)	1,466.88	6A​	2097.975​	7A​	1
Tinley Park (H.S.)	1,486.79	6A​	1019.5​	5A​	(1)
Moline (H.S.)	1,501.58	6A​	2093.5​	7A​	1
Dolton (Thornridge)	1,509.71	6A​	982.5​	5A​	(1)
Chicago (De La Salle)	1,512.19	6A​	1157.475​	5A​	(1)
Chicago Heights (Bloom Twp.)	1,516.92	6A​	2822​	8A​	2
Richton Park (Rich Township)	1,519.15	6A​	2466.5​	8A​	2
North Chicago	1,522.79	6A​	768.5​	4A​	(2)
Norridge (Ridgewood)	1,539.14	6A​	797.5​	4A​	(2)
Evergreen Park	1,541.29	6A​	892​	5A​	(1)
Machesney Park (Harlem)	1,551.83	6A​	1928​	7A​	1
Rockton (Hononegah)	1,551.83	6A​	1911​	7A​	1
Rockford (Jefferson)	1,555.18	6A​	1887.5​	7A​	1
Chicago (DePaul)	1,559.07	6A​	833​	4A​	(2)
Rockford (Guilford)	1,561.54	6A​	1843​	7A​	1
Elmhurst (IC Catholic)	1,565.29	6A​	608.03​	4A​	(2)
Rockford (Auburn)	1,565.40	6A​	1816​	7A​	1
Summit (Argo)	1,589.57	6A​	1877.5​	7A​	1
Sterling (H.S.)	1,591.92	6A​	978.5​	5A​	(1)
Chicago (Whitney Young)	1,598.14	6A​	1924​	7A​	1
Burbank (Reavis)	1,606.14	6A​	1967​	7A​	1
Lombard (Glenbard East)	1,615.64	6A​	2255​	8A​	2
Belvidere (H.S.)	1,647.54	6A​	1241​	5A​	(1)
Lombard (Montini)	1,662.51	6A​	805.2​	4A​	(2)
Carpentersville (Dundee-Crown)	1,664.71	6A​	2474​	8A​	2
Huntley	1,664.71	6A​	2996​	8A​	2

 

[Snetsrak61]

All changes part 7 of 7

School	FE Avg	FE Class	Actual Enrollment	Current Class	Change Total
Freeport (H.S.)	1,666.07	7A​	1028.5​	5A​	(2)
Rockford (Boylan Catholic)	1,666.07	7A​	1111.275​	5A​	(2)
Chicago (Lane)	1,676.86	7A​	4171.5​	8A​	1
Chicago (Taft)	1,684.36	7A​	3849​	8A​	1
Wilmette (Loyola Academy)	1,689.11	7A​	3276.08​	8A​	1
Oak Lawn (Richards)	1,691.57	7A​	1593.5​	6A​	(1)
Kankakee (Sr.)	1,707.80	7A​	1459.5​	6A​	(1)
McHenry	1,708.79	7A​	2165.5​	8A​	1
Chicago (Morgan Park)	1,709.25	7A​	1045​	5A​	(2)
Crete (Monee)	1,733.14	7A​	1413​	6A​	(1)
Glen Ellyn (Glenbard South)	1,738.50	7A​	1096.5​	5A​	(2)
Chicago (Phillips)	1,749.02	7A​	547.5​	4A​	(3)
Bensenville (Fenton)	1,761.57	7A​	1392.5​	6A​	(1)
Vernon Hills	1,785.86	7A​	1518.5​	6A​	(1)
Chicago (St. Ignatius)	1,791.21	7A​	2408.1​	8A​	1
Cary (Grove)	1,801.07	7A​	1519.5​	6A​	(1)
Crystal Lake (Central)	1,808.50	7A​	1467.5​	6A​	(1)
Crystal Lake (South)	1,827.21	7A​	1336.5​	6A​	(1)
Burlington (Central)	1,834.57	7A​	1285​	6A​	(1)
Crystal Lake (Prairie Ridge)	1,834.57	7A​	1214​	5A​	(2)
Belleville (East)	1,865.00	7A​	2439​	8A​	1
Wheeling	1,866.43	7A​	1677​	6A​	(1)
Joliet (Catholic Academy)	1,867.67	7A​	965.25​	5A​	(2)
Chicago (Amundsen)	1,879.64	7A​	1470​	6A​	(1)
New Lenox (Providence Catholic)	1,883.25	7A​	1296.08​	6A​	(1)
Skokie (Niles West)	1,896.43	7A​	2476​	8A​	1
St. Charles (East)	1,916.71	7A​	2169​	8A​	1
O'Fallon (H.S.)	1,938.90	7A​	2488​	8A​	1
Edwardsville (H.S.)	1,981.63	7A​	2307​	8A​	1
Carol Stream (Glenbard North)	1,998.07	7A​	2179.5​	8A​	1
Geneva	2,004.93	7A​	1698​	6A​	(1)
Harvey (Thornton)	2,013.50	7A​	1496​	6A​	(1)
Roselle (Lake Park)	2,042.57	7A​	2557​	8A​	1
Highland Park	2,044.29	7A​	1772​	6A​	(1)
Joliet (West)	2,066.14	7A​	3337.5​	8A​	1
Franklin Park-Northlake (Leyden)	2,082.79	7A​	3406.5​	8A​	1
Palatine (Fremd)	2,087.36	7A​	2608​	8A​	1
Aurora (East)	2,135.86	7A​	4050.5​	8A​	1
Berwyn-Cicero (Morton)	2,140.43	7A​	7758.5​	8A​	1
Addison (A. Trail)	2,189.50	8A​	1902​	7A​	(1)
Darien (Hinsdale South)	2,238.57	8A​	1315​	6A​	(2)
New Lenox (Lincoln-Way Central)	2,288.21	8A​	1960.5​	7A​	(1)
Arlington Heights (Hersey)	2,307.57	8A​	1989.5​	7A​	(1)
East St. Louis (Sr.)	2,336.25	8A​	1194​	5A​	(3)
Elgin (Larkin)	2,356.92	8A​	2107​	7A​	(1)
Streamwood	2,403.50	8A​	1755.5​	6A​	(2)
New Lenox (Lincoln-Way West)	2,412.71	8A​	1927.5​	7A​	(1)
Mundelein (H.S.)	2,477.07	8A​	2089.5​	7A​	(1)
Deerfield (H.S.)	2,479.71	8A​	1489.5​	6A​	(2)
Libertyville	2,493.71	8A​	1784​	6A​	(2)
Romeoville (H.S.)	2,523.36	8A​	1893.5​	7A​	(1)
Villa Park (Willowbrook)	2,543.21	8A​	1868​	7A​	(1)
Mt. Prospect (Prospect)	2,553.57	8A​	2155.5​	7A​	(1)
Lake Forest (H.S.)	2,563.99	8A​	1471.5​	6A​	(2)
Plainfield (East)	2,609.64	8A​	2031.5​	7A​	(1)
Downers Grove (North)	2,636.36	8A​	2156​	7A​	(1)
Plainfield (Central)	2,688.57	8A​	2050.5​	7A​	(1)
Northbrook (Glenbrook North)	2,725.57	8A​	1996.5​	7A​	(1)
Maywood (Proviso East)	2,809.29	8A​	2001​	7A​	(1)
Yorkville (H.S.)	2,828.71	8A​	1974​	7A​	(1)
Lake Zurich	2,865.86	8A​	1775.5​	6A​	(2)

 

[Snetsrak61]

I should have put the "Change" column flipped. Negative means they're going up in Football Enrollment verse actual.. Not going to correct now 🙃

Enjoy!

 

[Snetsrak61]

Also a plea:

For the love of god please behave so all my work summarizing this data isn't lost to an Edgy flush. 🙏. I do have the data backed up, but pasting it all into bite sized snips still took work.

 

[ramblinman]

Althoff is a "1a" school with the biggest Offensive line in the state title game per IHSA website.

That's great. I'm happy for them.

 

[IHSAfan207]

Also a plea:

For the love of god please behave so all my work summarizing this data isn't lost to an Edgy flush. 🙏. I do have the data backed up, but pasting it all into bite sized snips still took work.

Thank you for posting (and work on this), this is extremely interesting. While not perfect it certainly starts to move the bracket placements beyond the very outdated school size rule. I am curious if strength of schedule could be factored in someway, and devise a sliding scale for demotion and success for all schools.

 

[Snetsrak61]

Thank you for posting (and work on this), this is extremely interesting. While not perfect it certainly starts to move the bracket placements beyond the very outdated school size rule. I am curious if strength of schedule could be factored in someway, and devise a sliding scale for demotion and success for all schools.

I think you could pretty easily. I did this in a few hours of work using just copy/paste from a few IHSA website pages and excel. Put that all in a real database and you could easily expand on the metrics for either seeding or classification purposes.

My immediate thoughts are to look at CPS and CCL/ESCC schools through a unique lens. Whether a straight cap on class movement or a conference specific adjustment, those are a lot of the biggest movers (going both ways for CCL). I quite like how it moved a lot of other schools up and down. It definitely struggles on the edge cases as a lot of 8A schools just naturally get pulled down.

 

[IHSAfan207]

I think you could pretty easily. I did this in a few hours of work using just copy/paste from a few IHSA website pages and excel. Put that all in a real database and you could easily expand on the metrics for either seeding or classification purposes.

My immediate thoughts are to look at CPS and CCL/ESCC schools through a unique lens. Whether a straight cap on class movement or a conference specific adjustment, those are a lot of the biggest movers (going both ways for CCL). I quite like how it moved a lot of other schools up and down. It definitely struggles on the edge cases as a lot of 8A schools just naturally get pulled down.

I was working on a new post about classification and bracket ideas when this one came out.

Here were a few of my thoughts:

1. Incorporate a system that ALL schools have a sliding class placement scale both for success and demotion if certain requirements are met. So many schools are over-classed based solely on the outdated school size rule, the playoff data certainly speaks volumes on this.
   
   
2. Rank all classes from 1-32 and split the brackets into an "Upper Bracket" (1-16) and a "Relegation Bracket" (17-32) per class. To discourage teams from intentionally tanking in order to play in the Relegation Bracket, implement a rule that if a team wins the Relegation Bracket, there is a 4 year ban from competing in Regelation Bracket at that class level, and would need to qualify to compete in either the Champion (see below #4), Upper Bracket, or a higher-class Relegation Bracket during that 4-year ban before being eligible again. I feel this would help reduce some of the clocked games and layout some compelling brackets from the start.
   
   
3. Incorporate strength of schedule into class placements and rankings to create a more equitable system. I admit this one may be more difficult and would be subject to opinion. However, with all the algorithms out there, someone could come up with something useful, admittedly this is beyond my brain capacity.
   Example would be something like CCL 4 or 5 win teams qualify because of strength of schedule, but a conference like UEC maybe 6 or 7 win teams only.
   
   
4. Consider a Champion Bracket where the top 12 teams in state play regardless of class. I believe other states like CA do this. This open bracket would crown the best team in IL. All other teams filter down to the Upper & Relegation Class Brackets based on placement rules. Only the Champion and Upper Brackets play in State location, Relegation brackets plays in normal course of home school games to higher seed.
   
   
5. Create a CPS bracket, winners move to other brackets for limited amount of time before being eligible back in CPS bracket. Example 4 years with no Quarter Final appearances in other brackets allows eligibility back in CPS bracket. IMHO the CPS needs some work. Admittedly I am ignorant to all the workings of the CPS, but I see so many get clocked in the current brackets.

Obvious Rebuttals:
1. Travel could be an issue for 1 – 32 rankings. Maybe neutral sites if travel is more than 2.5 hours, gates go to home team.
2. Too Many Brackets. My response would be so what, let’s worry about getting it right, plus the Champion Bracket will crown the top dog in the State. The above ideas would only add 12 more teams total if Champion bracket was created. This might also possible allow the reduction in number classes total, maybe go to 6.

Interested in hearing some rebuttals on this, obviously if you think the IHSA Playoffs are good as is the so be it. But if you believe, like me, that the data shows there are imperfections in the IHSA playoff brackets and class placements and think the goal should be to create a more balanced playoff system I am curious your thoughts.

 

[SiuCubFan8]

I was working on a new post about classification and bracket ideas when this one came out.

Here were a few of my thoughts:

1. Incorporate a system that ALL schools have a sliding class placement scale both for success and demotion if certain requirements are met. So many schools are over-classed based solely on the outdated school size rule, the playoff data certainly speaks volumes on this.
   
   
2. Rank all classes from 1-32 and split the brackets into an "Upper Bracket" (1-16) and a "Relegation Bracket" (17-32) per class. To discourage teams from intentionally tanking in order to play in the Relegation Bracket, implement a rule that if a team wins the Relegation Bracket, there is a 4 year ban from competing in Regelation Bracket at that class level, and would need to qualify to compete in either the Champion (see below #4), Upper Bracket, or a higher-class Relegation Bracket during that 4-year ban before being eligible again. I feel this would help reduce some of the clocked games and layout some compelling brackets from the start.
   
   
3. Incorporate strength of schedule into class placements and rankings to create a more equitable system. I admit this one may be more difficult and would be subject to opinion. However, with all the algorithms out there, someone could come up with something useful, admittedly this is beyond my brain capacity.
   Example would be something like CCL 4 or 5 win teams qualify because of strength of schedule, but a conference like UEC maybe 6 or 7 win teams only.
   
   
4. Consider a Champion Bracket where the top 12 teams in state play regardless of class. I believe other states like CA do this. This open bracket would crown the best team in IL. All other teams filter down to the Upper & Relegation Class Brackets based on placement rules. Only the Champion and Upper Brackets play in State location, Relegation brackets plays in normal course of home school games to higher seed.
   
   
5. Create a CPS bracket, winners move to other brackets for limited amount of time before being eligible back in CPS bracket. Example 4 years with no Quarter Final appearances in other brackets allows eligibility back in CPS bracket. IMHO the CPS needs some work. Admittedly I am ignorant to all the workings of the CPS, but I see so many get clocked in the current brackets.

Obvious Rebuttals:
1. Travel could be an issue for 1 – 32 rankings. Maybe neutral sites if travel is more than 2.5 hours, gates go to home team.
2. Too Many Brackets. My response would be so what, let’s worry about getting it right, plus the Champion Bracket will crown the top dog in the State. The above ideas would only add 12 more teams total if Champion bracket was created. This might also possible allow the reduction in number classes total, maybe go to 6.

Interested in hearing some rebuttals on this, obviously if you think the IHSA Playoffs are good as is the so be it. But if you believe, like me, that the data shows there are imperfections in the IHSA playoff brackets and class placements and think the goal should be to create a more balanced playoff system I am curious your thoughts.

Always enjoy hearing someone's thoughts on how to make the playoffs better.
Just for clarification, I will use 5A the class for the example. The top 16 teams compete for a 5A title and the next 16 teams compete for a 5A title? Did I miss something? So, you have 5A Gold champs and 5A Silver champs? Obviously, Gold=Upper and Silver=Relegation.

 

[ramblinman]

Incorporate a system that ALL schools have a sliding class placement scale both for success and demotion if certain requirements are met. So many schools are over-classed based solely on the outdated school size rule, the playoff data certainly speaks volumes on this.

Yes! I've been howling in the wind about this for years on this board! Glad to see someone else seeing the logic of it. Be prepared for lots of naysayers and nitpickers, though.

Rank all classes from 1-32 and split the brackets into an "Upper Bracket" (1-16) and a "Relegation Bracket" (17-32) per class. To discourage teams from intentionally tanking in order to play in the Relegation Bracket, implement a rule that if a team wins the Relegation Bracket, there is a 4 year ban from competing in Regelation Bracket at that class level, and would need to qualify to compete in either the Champion (see below #4), Upper Bracket, or a higher-class Relegation Bracket during that 4-year ban before being eligible again. I feel this would help reduce some of the clocked games and layout some compelling brackets from the start.

Very interesting idea indeed! Ranking will be a challenge and lots of folks will want you to have every T crossed and I dotted on that.

Incorporate strength of schedule into class placements and rankings to create a more equitable system. I admit this one may be more difficult and would be subject to opinion. However, with all the algorithms out there, someone could come up with something useful, admittedly this is beyond my brain capacity.
Example would be something like CCL 4 or 5 win teams qualify because of strength of schedule, but a conference like UEC maybe 6 or 7 win teams only.

Again, I've been talking about this for years, but I was pilloried when I took your approach that smarter people than me can come up with the right formula. Talk with @stonedlizard about the system he has already devised.

Consider a Champion Bracket where the top 12 teams in state play regardless of class. I believe other states like CA do this. This open bracket would crown the best team in IL. All other teams filter down to the Upper & Relegation Class Brackets based on placement rules. Only the Champion and Upper Brackets play in State location, Relegation brackets plays in normal course of home school games to higher seed.

Hmmm. Now you are getting into dangerous territory. People will mock you and say that it will diminish the non Champion Bracket class championships.

Create a CPS bracket, winners move to other brackets for limited amount of time before being eligible back in CPS bracket. Example 4 years with no Quarter Final appearances in other brackets allows eligibility back in CPS bracket. IMHO the CPS needs some work. Admittedly I am ignorant to all the workings of the CPS, but I see so many get clocked in the current brackets.

The elephant in the room. No easy fix.

But if you believe, like me, that the data shows there are imperfections in the IHSA playoff brackets and class placements and think the goal should be to create a more balanced playoff system I am curious your thoughts.

I believe, more than anything, that the problem lies in a flawed enrollment-based classification system. I also believe that there are too many classes and too many qualifiers in each class. The more watered down the playoffs are with classes and enrollment-based qualifiers, the more they are susceptible to blowouts especially in 1-32 seeding.

Overall, I think your heart is in the right place on this. Thanks for taking a stab at it. Seriously, have a conversation with @stonedlizard about this. You'll be glad you did.

 

[Snetsrak61]

Yes! I've been howling in the wind about this for years on this board! Glad to see someone else seeing the logic of it. Be prepared for lots of naysayers and nitpickers, though.



Very interesting idea indeed! Ranking will be a challenge and lots of folks will want you to have every T crossed and I dotted on that.



Again, I've been talking about this for years, but I was pilloried when I took your approach that smarter people than me can come up with the right formula. Talk with @stonedlizard about the system he has already devised.



Hmmm. Now you are getting into dangerous territory. People will mock you and say that it will diminish the non Champion Bracket class championships.



The elephant in the room. No easy fix.



I believe, more than anything, that the problem lies in a flawed enrollment-based classification system. I also believe that there are too many classes and too many qualifiers in each class. The more watered down the playoffs are with classes and enrollment-based qualifiers, the more they are susceptible to blowouts especially in 1-32 seeding.

Overall, I think your heart is in the right place on this. Thanks for taking a stab at it. Seriously, have a conversation with @stonedlizard about this. You'll be glad you did.

There's always are gonna be blowouts. Across all classes the best teams on a good day are just head and shoulders above a median team, even a median playoff team.

Trying to go 32 deep in a strictly competetive balance mandate is just tough too. You have a lot of small class schools who are probably in the top 50 teams in a given year. Are they "7A" now? (assuming you could seed the best 32 in 8A and work down the line).

On some level I think some enrollment based factor is practical (whether direct or football enrollment). But whereas today it's like 95/5 (SF playing a very small role), maybe it needs to be more 70/30 or something. And the 30 as much as possible should be based on leading success indicators and not backwards looking success adjustments (which will rarely make sense).

 

[ramblinman]

On some level I think some enrollment based factor is practical (whether direct or football enrollment). But whereas today it's like 95/5 (SF playing a very small role), maybe it needs to be more 70/30 or something. And the 30 as much as possible should be based on leading success indicators and not backwards looking success adjustments (which will rarely make sense).

I do too, but don't call it enrollment based. That's basically what we have now. Call it enrollment influenced.