MMXXIV Edition - CCL-ESCC Predictions Week XIII

[jwarigaku]

For those who may be interested:

The Massey computer ratings clearly did a better job of predicting this game than CalPreps. Although it is not wise to read too much into a single outcome, I have done several studies over the last five years that have demonstrated the same result. Massey consistently outperforms CalPreps in predicting outcomes for games.

However, for those who might be thinking it would be a good thing to use the Massey ratings for seeding the playoffs, a word of caution is in order. It seems Massey, in part, uses data from prior seasons when making playoff predictions. For example, the Massey power ratings just prior to the playoffs starting had York making it to the championship game this year. That was a remarkable prediction, but there is no way a computer program could have arrived at that conclusion based solely on data from this year. York finished third in the West Suburban Silver Conference this year and was convincingly defeated by both Lyons Township and Downers Grove North. York's playoff success the two prior years had to be part of the equation.

Most people would agree the seeding of teams should be based solely on the current year's performance. They would also agree seeds should reflect what has been earned just as much as reflecting ability. Lyons deserved a better seed than York this year but Massey's power ratings would not have yielded that result. It is also important to note that Massey provides two different sets of ratings, one of which does, to a degree, consider the ranking that a team deserves. Similarly, CalPrep's predictions are not based on the same formula it uses to rank teams.

So, in conclusion, Massey does a significantly better job at predicting high school football games than CalPreps does. But, one has to be careful about which set of rankings they might use if they want to use the rankings for seeding purposes.

Thank you for your indulgence in allowing me to post this information in this thread. It is not a natural fit, but it did seem appropriate given the wide disparity between the two systems in relation to the Montini prediction, and the CalPreps prediction was used in this thread.


Note: Massey predicted (before the playoffs began) a Loyola vs. York final in 8A, and a Mt. Carmel vs. Batavia final in 7A. It also predicted Montini over Byron and Maroa-Forsyth over Quincy Notre Dame, two of the more difficult calls to make in predicting this year's playoffs. No doubt, a bit of luck also plays a role.

Massey's championship predictions prior to the playoffs beginning:
8A - Loyola
7A - Mt. Carmel
6A - East St. Louis
5A - Nazareth
4A - Rochester
3A - Montini
2A - Maroa-Forsyth
1A - Lena-Winslow

If I remember correctly that prediction was only made after the seedings were released. That said Massey had guidance from the bracketology.

 

[RockSoup]

Results from Week XIII:

name	GAMES	WINS	PCT
@tuccs	6​	6​	100.00%​
@McCaravan	6​	5​	83.33%​
@80sRambler	6​	5​	83.33%​
@Crusaderfan19	6​	5​	83.33%​
@RockSoup	6​	5​	83.33%​
@Billy Budapest	6​	5​	83.33%​
@jwarigaku	6​	5​	83.33%​
@BornNRazed	6​	4​	66.67%​
@ignazio	6​	4​	66.67%​
@Stella5	6​	4​	66.67%​
@3OrangeWhips	6​	4​	66.67%​
@k1867	6​	4​	66.67%​
@SiuCubFan8	6​	4​	66.67%​
@BoundaryCorner	6​	4​	66.67%​
@ChicagoRambler	6​	4​	66.67%​
@refref01	6​	3​	50.00%​
@DMurph11	6​	3​	50.00%​
@pjjp	6​	3​	50.00%​
@MsDavis10	6​	2​	33.33%​
@ESCC fan	6​	2​	33.33%​
@BillyTheBuffoon	6​	2​	33.33%​

 

[ESCC fan]

Woof.

 

[RockSoup]

Right down to the wire in our Playoff Pick 'em Showdown.

Alliteration Fun Fact: There is no word that starts with a hard 'p' sound that is a synonym for 'competition'. So showdown it is.

I'll discuss the tie-breaker with @ignazio tonight at our tuxedo fitting. Or drop an idea here if you so choose. My idea is the total points for the 7A and 8A championships. I went with both because the number and pedigree of those fighting for our Favorite Fun Finals Photo Finish Playoff Pick 'em is impressive.

name	GAMES	WINS	PCT
@BornNRazed	38​	24​	63.16%​
@ignazio	39​	24​	61.54%​
@80sRambler	38​	24​	63.16%​
@McCaravan	38​	24​	63.16%​
@k1867	39​	23​	58.97%​
@BillyTheBuffoon	39​	22​	56.41%​
@refref01	38​	22​	57.89%​
@Stella5	39​	22​	56.41%​
@RockSoup	39​	22​	56.41%​
@Crusaderfan19	39​	22​	56.41%​
@BoundaryCorner	39​	21​	53.85%​
@3OrangeWhips	38​	21​	55.26%​
@tuccs	37​	21​	56.76%​
@ESCC fan	39​	20​	51.28%​
@MsDavis10	39​	19​	48.72%​
@SiuCubFan8	39​	19​	48.72%​
@pjjp	39​	17​	43.59%​
@DMurph11	37​	16​	43.24%​
@K3D88	11​	6​	54.55%​
@Billy Budapest	6​	5​	83.33%​
@jwarigaku	6​	5​	83.33%​
@ChicagoRambler	6​	4​	66.67%​

 

[RockSoup]

And our Season Long Contest Standings:

name	games	WINS	PCT
@k1867	153​	97​	63.40%​
@3OrangeWhips	152​	96​	63.16%​
@ignazio	152​	91​	59.87%​
@tuccs	150​	91​	60.67%​
@refref01	150​	88​	58.67%​
@BillyTheBuffoon	153​	86​	56.21%​
@pjjp	153​	86​	56.21%​
@80sRambler	152​	86​	56.58%​
@Stella5	153​	85​	55.56%​
@BornNRazed	152​	85​	55.92%​
@MsDavis10	152​	83​	54.61%​
@ESCC fan	130​	77​	59.23%​
@RockSoup	122​	75​	61.48%​
@stl705	103​	61​	59.22%​
@BoundaryCorner	99​	56​	56.57%​
@McCaravan	87​	56​	64.37%​
@ChicagoRambler	60​	37​	61.67%​
@SiuCubFan8	48​	25​	52.08%​
@DMurph11	46​	22​	47.83%​
@Crusaderfan19	39​	22​	56.41%​
@K3D88	11​	6​	54.55%​
@Billy Budapest	6​	5​	83.33%​
@jwarigaku	6​	5​	83.33%​
@RameyJacoby	11​	4​	36.36%​