Private Schools 7 - Public Schools 1. That’s a wrap!

[wickerpark wildcat]

Just to put some numbers behind the swing... Private schools have always punched above their weight in football, but the last 5 years have been dramatically more dominant. I split the data into 5 year periods, and the split was always somewhere around 2/3 public & 1/3 private champs. In last 5 years, it is 50/50.

*Note that I am eyeballing which schools are private & public, possible made an error or 2.

Year (group)		Private	Public
1974-75 ->1978-79	% of Total	32%​	68%​
1974-75 ->1978-79	Count	8​	17​
1979-80 ->1983-84	% of Total	38%​	62%​
1979-80 ->1983-84	Count	11​	18​
1984-85 -> 1988-89	% of Total	37%​	63%​
1984-85 -> 1988-89	Count	11​	19​
1989-90 -> 1993-94	% of Total	37%​	63%​
1989-90 -> 1993-94	Count	11​	19​
1994-95 ->1998-99	% of Total	27%​	73%​
1994-95 ->1998-99	Count	8​	22​
1999-00->2003-04	% of Total	31%​	69%​
1999-00->2003-04	Count	11​	25​
2004-05 ->2008-09	% of Total	33%​	68%​
2004-05 ->2008-09	Count	13​	27​
2009-10 ->2013-14	% of Total	28%​	73%​
2009-10 ->2013-14	Count	11​	29​
2014-15 ->2018-19	% of Total	33%​	68%​
2014-15 ->2018-19	Count	13​	27​
2019-20 ->2024-25	% of Total	50%​	50%​
2019-20 ->2024-25	Count	20​	20​

 

[Snetsrak61]

Here's the fix.

Enrollment is perfectly fine in classifying public schools so no need to do away with that.

In what sense? Certainly not from a competetive balance standpoint. The power imbalance among public schools is only a bit less extreme than among private schools.

We create a committee of Private school coaches/AD's. Then we take the Private playoff qualifiers and divide them into thirds. This Private committee then determines which 33% go into 8A, 7A, and 6A. For numbers not divisible by 3 the extra team(s) go into the larger class first.

There are PLENTY of private schools with no business being as high as 6A. There's still huge enrollment discrepancies that matter every bit as much for private schools as public.

A VERY basic football enrollment would do a great job of moving both strong private and public schools up classifications, with some exceptions. Write a few extra rules to smooth out some of the anomalies and you could fix a lot with an low burden administrative system.

 

[Snetsrak61]

Just to put some numbers behind the swing... Private schools have always punched above their weight in football, but the last 5 years have been dramatically more dominant. I split the data into 5 year periods, and the split was always somewhere around 2/3 public & 1/3 private champs. In last 5 years, it is 50/50.

*Note that I am eyeballing which schools are private & public, possible made an error or 2.

Year (group)		Private	Public
1974-75 ->1978-79	% of Total	32%​	68%​
1974-75 ->1978-79	Count	8​	17​
1979-80 ->1983-84	% of Total	38%​	62%​
1979-80 ->1983-84	Count	11​	18​
1984-85 -> 1988-89	% of Total	37%​	63%​
1984-85 -> 1988-89	Count	11​	19​
1989-90 -> 1993-94	% of Total	37%​	63%​
1989-90 -> 1993-94	Count	11​	19​
1994-95 ->1998-99	% of Total	27%​	73%​
1994-95 ->1998-99	Count	8​	22​
1999-00->2003-04	% of Total	31%​	69%​
1999-00->2003-04	Count	11​	25​
2004-05 ->2008-09	% of Total	33%​	68%​
2004-05 ->2008-09	Count	13​	27​
2009-10 ->2013-14	% of Total	28%​	73%​
2009-10 ->2013-14	Count	11​	29​
2014-15 ->2018-19	% of Total	33%​	68%​
2014-15 ->2018-19	Count	13​	27​
2019-20 ->2024-25	% of Total	50%​	50%​
2019-20 ->2024-25	Count	20​	20​

Right around the time the multiplier waiver program was way eased.

Go back to a strict or no waiver system. Then look at impacts of 1-32 seeding (at least 5A and 6A). Also should study alternatives to W-L/PP seeding system. Then let's see where next 5 years shake out. Would be very interested in seeing return of football enrollment too.

 

[wickerpark wildcat]

In what sense? Certainly not from a competetive balance standpoint. The power imbalance among public schools is only a bit less extreme than among private schools.


There are PLENTY of private schools with no business being as high as 6A. There's still huge enrollment discrepancies that matter every bit as much for private schools as public.

A VERY basic football enrollment would do a great job of moving both strong private and public schools up classifications, with some exceptions. Write a few extra rules to smooth out some of the anomalies and you could fix a lot with an low burden administrative system.

What don't you like of my proposal of classifying according to total kids in program. The more I think about it, the more I like it... essentially self-identifies a school on how important football is to them. Similar to NCAA... Northwestern and Wash U are very similar enrollment, but one has significantly more interest in football, so plays in B1G, while other is d3.

 

[SEHSSTORM1]

What don't you like of my proposal of classifying according to total kids in program. The more I think about it, the more I like it... essentially self-identifies a school on how important football is to them. Similar to NCAA... Northwestern and Wash U are very similar enrollment, but one has significantly more interest in football, so plays in B1G, while other is d3.

This is really interesting. Loyola has 300 playing football and some CPS schools have 20, how would you break up classes to fit 32 in each? Still use 256 to qualify and than separate? What would that look like?

 

[Snetsrak61]

What don't you like of my proposal of classifying according to total kids in program. The more I think about it, the more I like it... essentially self-identifies a school on how important football is to them. Similar to NCAA... Northwestern and Wash U are very similar enrollment, but one has significantly more interest in football, so plays in B1G, while other is d3.

Who said I didn't?

The IHSA should go ask all the CCL/ESCC schools about their own experience trying to weigh competetive balance. I beleive program numbers is one of the metrics they do use in their current bi-annual conference reclasses (though certainly shouldn't be the only one).

Maybe those Catholics would have valuable insights to offer though.

 

[Cross Bones]

In what sense? Certainly not from a competetive balance standpoint. The power imbalance among public schools is only a bit less extreme than among private schools.


There are PLENTY of private schools with no business being as high as 6A. There's still huge enrollment discrepancies that matter every bit as much for private schools as public.

A VERY basic football enrollment would do a great job of moving both strong private and public schools up classifications, with some exceptions. Write a few extra rules to smooth out some of the anomalies and you could fix a lot with an low burden administrative system.

From a competitive balance standpoint enrollment is fine amongst publics. But should something like what happens with privates arise i would also support trying to determine if there is an "unfair" factor and try to address it. A couple years ago the board voted that a number of schools whose colors are red/white/black under achieve so maybe I implement a divider if those are your colors.

The ones that you say have no business in 6A can get better coaching and try harder because apparently make up of enrollment is not actually a factor, just coaching and trying hard. Which apparently doesn't work for basketball.

 

[crusader_of_90]

USA Today ...

In Illinois, private schools outscored public 283-76 in football state title games

The Illinois state championship football games that pitted public schools against private were lopsided, as the private schools cruised, 283-76.

www.usatodayhss.com

 

[King MJ]

You make very good points. However, in Michigan, the Publix are dominating. How is it that it’s actually pretty even in Michigan year to year and yet Illinois seems to always complain about this issue? Maybe public school kids in Illinois just can’t play football at a high level. East Side doesn’t care. Rochester doesn’t care. Both of those examples are diametrically different in community, income level, and geography. Yet both are feared the moment they step onto the field.

To be fair, the population of Michigan is much more spread out than that of Illinois, making it harder to create private school juggernauts.

Also, I think the folks in division 6 and division 7 in Michigan probably have similar comments about Lumen Christi, who like Montini in Illinois, should probably be playing at least 3 classes higher.

 

[DeanOfSelection]

No multiplier waivers (why have multiplier in first place if it isn't implemented fully) , multiplier 2.0, football enrollment, success factor across the board

 

[LTHSALUM76]

Every public school player gets free tuition.

No they don't. Nothing is free. Someone is paying. Wake up.

 

[Quags57]

214 is getting a lot of leftovers recently

Both of those coaches made the playoffs this year. I think many schools would like the taste of that.

 

[Quags57]

What don't you like of my proposal of classifying according to total kids in program. The more I think about it, the more I like it... essentially self-identifies a school on how important football is to them. Similar to NCAA... Northwestern and Wash U are very similar enrollment, but one has significantly more interest in football, so plays in B1G, while other is d3.

I do like that idea. I just don't trust coaches, especially some of those fringe assistants, running kids off.

 

[colin2229]

No they don't. Nothing is free. Someone is paying. Wake up.

You know what I meant. Cmon dog

 

[LTHSALUM76]

You know what I meant. Cmon dog

And you know what I mean. People like you think public schooling is "free." Hell no it isn't.

 

[colin2229]

And you know what I mean. People like you think public schooling is "free." Hell no it isn't.

Not what I’m saying at all.

 

[LTHSALUM76]

Not what I’m saying at all.

I know what you said. Maybe you should read it again.

 

[MC63]

I know what you said. Maybe you should read it again.

Say it ain't so!

 

[colin2229]

I know what you said. Maybe you should read it again.