CS8 Predictions Week 11

[rocketnation]

The CS8 has gone from 5 playoff teams last week to two this week with Chatham, Jacksonville, and MacArthur having been eliminated. Both games are Saturday.

4:30 #5 Breese Central (8-2) at #4 Rochester (9-1)
Any team who saw the first half of Rochester-Effingham game last week would not be scared to take on the Rockets. Four turnovers and way too many penalties for this time of the season. Confusion on the substitutions. The defense really stepped up and shut down Effingham down completely, except for two short field TD drives after turnovers. I expect a big bounce back this week on what will likely be the final home game of the year. While Effingham plays a 4A-5A schedule, Breese plays a less impressive 2A-4A schedule. Breese has lost to 2A non qualifier Mater Dei and 4A Columbia. Their 21-18 win over Mt Zion last week was their best win of the season. They have not allowed more than 28 points in any game. Expect the Rockets to exceed that total Saturday. Rochester 49 Breese 7.

5:00 #2 SHG (10-0) at #10 Waterloo (7-3)
Not sure why the kickoff has changed from 2pm to 5pm. Waterloo won big last week at Olney 76-28. They have played a much stronger schedule than Spring Valley and will offer more of a challenge. Their three losses were all to playoff qualifiers: 4A Columbia, 5A Triad, and 5A Highland. Highland, who could make a deep run in 5A, won 49-10 in Week 7. Waterloo’s best win was over 5A qualifier Mascoutah. They have a strong running attack and will likely try to drain the clock and keep the ball away from SHG. The Waterloo defense gave up several long TD passes to Olney last week. Their secondary could be in for a very long evening against the SHG passing attack. A big and noisy crowd for the home team should be expected. However, that shouldn’t have much impact on the veteran dominated SHG. The Cyclones should win handily. SHG 57 Waterloo 13.

 

[MalleusMaleficarum]

The CS8 has gone from 5 playoff teams last week to two this week with Chatham, Jacksonville, and MacArthur having been eliminated. Both games are Saturday.

4:30 #5 Breese Central (8-2) at #4 Rochester (9-1)
Any team who saw the first half of Rochester-Effingham game last week would not be scared to take on the Rockets. Four turnovers and way too many penalties for this time of the season. Confusion on the substitutions. The defense really stepped up and shut down Effingham down completely, except for two short field TD drives after turnovers. I expect a big bounce back this week on what will likely be the final home game of the year. While Effingham plays a 4A-5A schedule, Breese plays a less impressive 2A-4A schedule. Breese has lost to 2A non qualifier Mater Dei and 4A Columbia. Their 21-18 win over Mt Zion last week was their best win of the season. They have not allowed more than 28 points in any game. Expect the Rockets to exceed that total Saturday. Rochester 49 Breese 7.

5:00 #2 SHG (10-0) at #10 Waterloo (7-3)
Not sure why the kickoff has changed from 2pm to 5pm. Waterloo won big last week at Olney 76-28. They have played a much stronger schedule than Spring Valley and will offer more of a challenge. Their three losses were all to playoff qualifiers: 4A Columbia, 5A Triad, and 5A Highland. Highland, who could make a deep run in 5A, won 49-10 in Week 7. Waterloo’s best win was over 5A qualifier Mascoutah. They have a strong running attack and will likely try to drain the clock and keep the ball away from SHG. The Waterloo defense gave up several long TD passes to Olney last week. Their secondary could be in for a very long evening against the SHG passing attack. A big and noisy crowd for the home team should be expected. However, that shouldn’t have much impact on the veteran dominated SHG. The Cyclones should win handily. SHG 57 Waterloo 13.

I actually wouldn't be surprised to see Waterloo drive against the SHG defense in their first offensive possession, much like Jacksonville did in its first possession against the Cyclones. I would certainly expect it if they get the ball first (again, as J'ville did). Could take seeing the Bulldogs' running game in action before knowing what to adjust.

You make a great point about the veteran (senior) dominated team. Remember however, that your point IS dependent on whether or not the players decide to take this game and opponent seriously. Again, one would hope the senior leadership prevails, but the Cyclone faithful who remember the past may want to hold their breath!! Right, coaches?????

 

[cornerrat]

All.... Rain and wind coming to a game near you this Saturday. Some Cyclone stats below. Often overlooked (not by me) because of the prolific passing game the Cyclones have is their running game. Two lightening and elusive backs Sanders and Jackson, sprinkle in Ethan Hagele, (he is fast with a different running style) and top it all off with QB Lott when he decides to bolt. A nice recipe. Ratsy


Passing - 146-2301 (15.8) (32 td's)

Rushing - 217-1477 (6.8) (36 td's)

 

[The_Oldfan]

The forecast for Saturday is thunderstorms and rain with a high of 60, so likely a bit cooler at 5pm. There is always the old question of whether rain favors the passer or the pass defender, but either way SHG should have the advantage, not to mention the proficient running attack you mentioned.

I'd think the biggest worry would be lightning delay or postponement. There was a game between Triad and Chatham a few years back that did not finish until nearly midnight. Which would you prefer, driving home at 2am or going back down on Sunday?

 

[cornerrat]

The forecast for Saturday is thunderstorms and rain with a high of 60, so likely a bit cooler at 5pm. There is always the old question of whether rain favors the passer or the pass defender, but either way SHG should have the advantage, not to mention the proficient running attack you mentioned.

I'd think the biggest worry would be lightning delay or postponement. There was a game between Triad and Chatham a few years back that did not finish until nearly midnight. Which would you prefer, driving home at 2am or going back down on Sunday?

All.....Neither but.... if there are several delays the rodent will be down the street at the local church which likely means spending the night at a hotel. (lol) Ratsy

 

[MalleusMaleficarum]

All.....Neither but.... if there are several delays the rodent will be down the street at the local church which likely means spending the night at a hotel. (lol) Ratsy

The forecast is bouncing all over the place, but the Weather Channel NOW calls for rain early, with a mix of sun and clouds in the afternoon. Still too far out to count on that, but it does sound better than the t-storms they were calling for (and which could still happen).

 

[rocketnation]

SJR Staff Predictions
Rochester 49 Breese Central 14
SHG 56 Waterloo 14

 

[The_Oldfan]

Illinois weather!

The forecast no longer includes T-storms. Morning showers and windy.

 

[cornerrat]

All.... Some Bulldog video. Aggressive (and chance taking) on defense. Ratsy

Boys Varsity Football • Home

View livestreams, highlights and upcoming events for Waterloo High School in Waterloo, IL.

www.hudl.com

 

[rocketnation]

Halftime
Rochester 42 Breese Central 0

Waterloo 6 SHG 0

 

[rocketnation]

Final
Rochester 42 Breese Central 0. Keeton Reiss threw for 2 TD’s and ran for 2. Breese fumbled the opening kickoff, and Rochester scored in 2 plays to lead 7-0 less than a minute into the game. A much cleaner performance by the Offense than last week and another solid effort by the Defense. Rochester travels to Carterville next week. Carterville’s 3rd straight home game, and they’ve beaten two quality programs from the northern part of the southern bracket in Geneseo and Coal City.

SHG 28 Waterloo 16. Until today, no one had held SHG to less than 49 points. Waterloo led 6-0 at half and pushed the lead to 16-7 midway through the 3rd Quarter before SHG scored the final 21 points of the game. It sounds like a combination of a strong Waterloo ground attack and a tough defensive effort with a little luck kept this tight for the entire game. SHG apparently had one TD overturned on an out of bounds call and lost another to a penalty. Waterloo deserves major congratulations for the effort. After losing badly 49-10 to Highland a few weeks ago (who then lost to Mascoutah today), I gave them no chance. I’ll let someone who was there explain what Waterloo did or SHG failed to do to make this one as close as it turned out. SHG gets Murphysboro at home next week.

 

[The_Oldfan]

Final
Rochester 42 Breese Central 0. Keeton Reiss threw for 2 TD’s and ran for 2. Breese fumbled the opening kickoff, and Rochester scored in 2 plays to lead 7-0 less than a minute into the game. A much cleaner performance by the Offense than last week and another solid effort by the Defense. Rochester travels to Carterville next week. Carterville’s 3rd straight home game, and they’ve beaten two quality programs from the northern part of the southern bracket in Geneseo and Coal City.

SHG 28 Waterloo 16. Until today, no one had held SHG to less than 49 points. Waterloo led 6-0 at half and pushed the lead to 16-7 midway through the 3rd Quarter before SHG scored the final 19 points of the game. It sounds like a combination of a strong Waterloo ground attack and a tough defensive effort with a little luck kept this tight for the entire game. SHG apparently had one TD overturned on an out of bounds call and lost another to a penalty. Waterloo deserves major congratulations for the effort. After losing badly 49-10 to Highland a few weeks ago (who then lost to Mascoutah today), I gave them no chance. I’ll let someone who was there explain what Waterloo did or SHG failed to do to make this one as close as it turned out. SHG gets Murphysboro at home next week.

I did not listen to the radio pregame show and learned only after the game that Ken Leonard is ill and was not present. John Allison was the acting head coach. Do you (or anyone else) know the details.

Terribly sloppy game, 5 offsides calls against SHG and a like number of false starts against Waterloo. Several serious fouls against each
Late in the game Tim Schweizer seemed to suggest that s I me of those might.be something the refs should 'apologize' for.

 

[rocketnation]

I did not listen to the radio pregame show and learned only after the game that Ken Leonard is ill and was not present. John Allison was the acting head coach. Do you (or anyone else) know the details.

Terribly sloppy game, 5 offsides calls against SHG and a like number of false starts against Waterloo. Several serious fouls against each
Late in the game Tim Schweizer seemed to suggest that s I me of those might.be something the refs should 'apologize' for.

I was at the Rochester game until halftime. When I was driving home, Waterloo had just gone ahead 6-0 before half, but I heard nothing about Ken being ill and not coaching.

 

[cornerrat]

All.... A total lack of "rd "..... and unable to make half time adjustments is the result. This team when that happens depends upon the offense. One.... Ty Lott. And he had a rough game. SHG will have to out score teams if that continues to happen with rd. Because R- B awaits.... Ratsy

 

[The_Oldfan]

I'm surprised Carterville is still in. Their reward is Rochester

 

[cornerrat]

All.... I forgot to add!! A big thank you to the folks downtown in Waterloo. The Rat has to stop at the local church. Randy's Double R. Cold suds and great ambience. The bathroom was a little tight and no sink to wash your hands but that's ok. (lol) Ratsy

 

[rocketnation]

I'm surprised Carterville is still in. Their reward is Rochester

They’ve only given up one score in two games and have beaten solid programs in Geneseo and Coal City. I’m having flashbacks to the 2014 game at Herrin.

 

[cornerrat]

I'm surprised Carterville is still in. Their reward is Rochester

All.... A runner is a coming to the Lions..... Ratsy

 

[MalleusMaleficarum]

All.... A total lack of "rd "..... and unable to make half time adjustments is the result. This team when that happens depends upon the offense. One.... Ty Lott. And he had a terrible game. SHG will have to out score teams now. Because R B awaits.... Ratsy

They'd better concentrate on Murphysboro. If they get that one, the Route 29 beast is next. I'm interested in the R B game at Providence next week. Not sure I'd automatically pencil R B in as the winner. If they do, they play St. Francis most likely in the semifinal. That would be at R B.

On the post-game interview with Coach Allison, the Coach indicated that they wanted to run Ty more, since that play was open. Obviously, they didn't call his number 'till late.

As far as the run defense is concerned, the Cyclones are less than stellar against Wing-T teams (for the most part!). I'm not sure if Murphysboro runs that, but Rochester and Carterville don't (at least until now). We will see if they employ some of that after watching film of this game. Probably risky however to try to go exclusively with it (if that is not their offense).

 

[cornerrat]

All.... Malleus what took you so long? (lol) The Cycs march on.... Ratsy

 

[MalleusMaleficarum]

All.... Malleus what took you so long? (lol) The Cycs march on.... Ratsy

Watching a replay of the game now. My previous post was off the cuff. Have to revise my comment somewhat after actually viewing it. Here goes: the defense, while giving up yards and time of possession, got absolutely NO HELP from the offense in the 1st half. NONE. Defense gets two turnovers well within Waterloo's end of the field one after the other and the offense gets NO points out of it? No names here, ok, but the Cyclone QB looked totally confused and hesitant except for late in the game (when he ran, not passed). A couple of dropped passes didn't help his frame of mind (or confidence) either.

It's actually understandable that the team was not at peak performance, given the fact that Coach Ken was not even at the game, much less on the side line. While the seniors did step forward in the second half (mostly in the 4th Q), when you are supposedly one of the favorites to win 4A, such a performance must bring into question the wisdom of that thought.

P.S.: Yes, the Cycs march on, but toward what?

 

[The_Oldfan]

All.... A runner is a coming to the Lions..... Ratsy

I don't know that I'd want to wager on a RC. They took down Coal City pretty handily. Their scores on the season are comparable to Rochester and Chatham. They don't have anything like Rochester or us, but except for that their schedule is possibly tougher than either Rochester or SHG, especially in the lower half.

Calpreps says it'll be a close one.
neutral field
[2022] Rochester (IL) 31, [2022] Carterville (IL) 24

 

[cornerrat]

I did not listen to the radio pregame show and learned only after the game that Ken Leonard is ill and was not present. John Allison was the acting head coach. Do you (or anyone else) know the details.

Terribly sloppy game, 5 offsides calls against SHG and a like number of false starts against Waterloo. Several serious fouls against each
Late in the game Tim Schweizer seemed to suggest that s I me of those might.be something the refs should 'apologize' for.

All.... The ref crew was from the Metro East. They were and I'm being kind umm.... subpar. Fwiw on both teams. Not so much on the calls you talked about but spotting the ball on keys downs and missing outright infractions. Ratsy

 

[cornerrat]

They'd better concentrate on Murphysboro. If they get that one, the Route 29 beast is next. I'm interested in the R B game at Providence next week. Not sure I'd automatically pencil R B in as the winner. If they do, they play St. Francis most likely in the semifinal. That would be at R B.

On the post-game interview with Coach Allison, the Coach indicated that they wanted to run Ty more, since that play was open. Obviously, they didn't call his number 'till late.

As far as the run defense is concerned, the Cyclones are less than stellar against Wing-T teams (for the most part!). I'm not sure if Murphysboro runs that, but Rochester and Carterville don't (at least until now). We will see if they employ some of that after watching film of this game. Probably risky however to try to go exclusively with it (if that is not their offense).

All.... It will be back to business next week. I imagine long and "informative" practices. . Ratsy P.S. "Me thinks" a buzz saw awaits the Red Devils.

 

[rocketnation]

All.... It will be back to business next week. I imagine long and "informative" practices. . Ratsy P.S. "Me thinks" a buzz saw awaits the Red Devils.

100% agree. Since Derek’s halftime “pep” talk after last week’s 4 turnover 1st half, Rochester has outscored Effingham and Breese 66-0. Expect the same from the Cyclones next week.

 

[rocketnation]

Week 12 Matchups and a few observations

Rochester (10-1) at Carterville (11-0) Saturday 1:30

Murphysboro (9-2) at SHG (11-0) Saturday 2:00

Last week was the first playoff experience for many of Rochester’s starters. Even playing at home, some nervousness showed and the first half performance by the offense was terrible. This week was completely different. Breese never had a chance after fumbling the opening kickoff. Next week at Carterville will be the first playoff experience for many of the Rockets on the road and in a hostile environment. In 2014, a more experienced Rochester team was clearly impacted by the huge crowd at Herrin for the semifinals. The offense went 3 and out, fumble, and fumble on its 1st three possessions. Luckily, the defense held strong and Rochester only trailed 3-0 early before eventually winning 28-9. I would love to not have to go through this again and hope the Rockets have a quick start next week and leave no doubt.

SHG had their wake-up call yesterday. I’ll be shocked if they don’t come back and play their best football against Murphysboro. The “Murphy” kids are tough battlers. They played hard at Rochester in a 2nd Round playoff game in 2015 and played in the 4A state title game in 2019. But I think this road trip is going to end much differently for them than yesterday’s at Macomb.

 

[cigaros]

All.... It will be back to business next week. I imagine long and "informative" practices. . Ratsy P.S. "Me thinks" a buzz saw awaits the Red Devils.

I agree completely. 9-0 Macomb was a paper 9-0. Perforated paper at best. Murphysboro schedule is light. I see both Leonard teams playing a half and letting the underclassmen finish out the games as they prepare for each other in the semis.

 

[cornerrat]

All... It's going to be a cold one Saturday. Windy with a high of 37. But no precip..... Out I go to Noonan's. "Big Ben" the heater is going to need a lot of propane that day. Fill er up! Ratsy

 

[The_Oldfan]

Week 12 Matchups and a few observations

Rochester (10-1) at Carterville (11-0) Saturday 1:30

Murphysboro (9-2) at SHG (11-0) Saturday 2:00

Last week was the first playoff experience for many of Rochester’s starters. Even playing at home, some nervousness showed and the first half performance by the offense was terrible. This week was completely different. Breese never had a chance after fumbling the opening kickoff. Next week at Carterville will be the first playoff experience for many of the Rockets on the road and in a hostile environment. In 2014, a more experienced Rochester team was clearly impacted by the huge crowd at Herrin for the semifinals. The offense went 3 and out, fumble, and fumble on its 1st three possessions. Luckily, the defense held strong and Rochester only trailed 3-0 early before eventually winning 28-9. I would love to not have to go through this again and hope the Rockets have a quick start next week and leave no doubt.

SHG had their wake-up call yesterday. I’ll be shocked if they don’t come back and play their best football against Murphysboro. The “Murphy” kids are tough battlers. They played hard at Rochester in a 2nd Round playoff game in 2015 and played in the 4A state title game in 2019. But I think this road trip is going to end much differently for them than yesterday’s at Macomb.

If any a team ever needed a lesson in humility and taking nobody for granted SHG got one yesterday. Fortunately they survived. In retrospect it was probably not as bad as it seemed yesterday. The defense playing in a bend but don't break mode played well. They held Waterloo's four real scoring opportunities to three field goals and the one breakaway touchdown. Even when placed in bad situations by offensive errors. Even the offense which seemed sluggish and disjointed at times, especially in the 1st 3 quarters, moved the ball well with one TD and another penetration inside the 5 called back due to penalties. Waterloo was in all likelihood playing one of their best games. SHG on the other hand hopefully learned that it's better to study game films rather than editing your recruiting videos. The other key for both remaining CS8 teams is to concentrate ON THIS week's opponent and not worry about the possible one after that

Murphysboro will be an entirely different kettle of fish. Their schedule is even softer than the CS8 and their scores against it unimpressive. If the Cyclones paid attention to yesterday's lesson it should be a relatively easy game. SHG 56, Murphysboro 14

Carterville hosting Rochester is In my opinion a rather tougher nut to crack. Their schedule, with allowance for not playing an SHG or a Rochester, is is at least equivalent to that of the mid and lesser teams in the central state 8 and their scores against that schedule are actually quite impressive. Yesterday they shut out a Coal City team which is is both a perennial playoff participant and plays in fact a rougher schedule than we do. CalPrep's calls it a one touchdown game on on a neutral field and in fact they will be playing in Carterville. While I do not believe that this the game will be that close, I also don't believe that the rockets should plan on resting their starters with a running clock game. Rochester 35, Carterville 21

 

[CIMRY90]

If any a team ever needed a lesson in humility and taking nobody for granted SHG got one yesterday. Fortunately they survived. In retrospect it was probably not as bad as it seemed yesterday. The defense playing in a bend but don't break mode played well. They held Waterloo's four real scoring opportunities to three field goals and the one breakaway touchdown. Even when placed in bad situations by offensive errors. Even the offense which seemed sluggish and disjointed at times, especially in the 1st 3 quarters, moved the ball well with one TD and another penetration inside the 5 called back due to penalties. Waterloo was in all likelihood playing one of their best games. SHG on the other hand hopefully learned that it's better to study game films rather than editing your recruiting videos. The other key for both remaining CS8 teams is to concentrate ON THIS week's opponent and not worry about the possible one after that

Murphysboro will be an entirely different kettle of fish. Their schedule is even softer than the CS8 and their scores against it unimpressive. If the Cyclones paid attention to yesterday's lesson it should be a relatively easy game. SHG 56, Murphysboro 14

Carterville hosting Rochester is In my opinion a rather tougher nut to crack. Their schedule, with allowance for not playing an SHG or a Rochester, is is at least equivalent to that of the mid and lesser teams in the central state 8 and their scores against that schedule are actually quite impressive. Yesterday they shut out a Coal City team which is is both a perennial playoff participant and plays in fact a rougher schedule than we do. CalPrep's calls it a one touchdown game on on a neutral field and in fact they will be playing in Carterville. While I do not believe that this the game will be that close, I also don't believe that the rockets should plan on resting their starters with a running clock game. Rochester 35, Carterville 21

I wanted to get a better idea of how the teams schedules match up. Following is my methodology to get closer to an apples-to-apples comparison. Looking at CHS’s schedule, they played two 4A schools during the regular season (Herrin and Murphysboro) and of course two 4A schools during the playoffs (Geneseo and Coal City). For Rochester, its only 4A school on its schedule for regular season is SHG with the reminder are 5A or 6A schools. For purposes of this comparison, I removed Lanphier, Southeast and Eisenhower as their wins only came against each other in CS8 closed conference. This left RHS with 6 regular season games against 4A or higher and 2 playoff games.

For those eight games, Rochester averaged 43 points on offense and 19 points on defense. Since the opening loss to SHG, the defense is giving up 13 points per game. Carterville for the 4 teams identified is scoring at 30 points per game and giving up 11 points. It should be noted that Rochester calls off the dogs once a game is in control or the Running Clock has started so it is important to look at points scored by half. For those eight games, Rochester averaged 33 points in the first half and 10 in the second half. For Carterville, the average of points scored for the 4 games are 15 points per half.

 

[rocketnation]

I wanted to get a better idea of how the teams schedules match up. Following is my methodology to get closer to an apples-to-apples comparison. Looking at CHS’s schedule, they played two 4A schools during the regular season (Herrin and Murphysboro) and of course two 4A schools during the playoffs (Geneseo and Coal City). For Rochester, its only 4A school on its schedule for regular season is SHG with the reminder are 5A or 6A schools. For purposes of this comparison, I removed Lanphier, Southeast and Eisenhower as their wins only came against each other in CS8 closed conference. This left RHS with 6 regular season games against 4A or higher and 2 playoff games.

For those eight games, Rochester averaged 43 points on offense and 19 points on defense. Since the opening loss to SHG, the defense is giving up 13 points per game. Carterville for the 4 teams identified is scoring at 30 points per game and giving up 11 points. It should be noted that Rochester calls off the dogs once a game is in control or the Running Clock has started so it is important to look at points scored by half. For those eight games, Rochester averaged 33 points in the first half and 10 in the second half. For Carterville, the average of points scored for the 4 games are 15 points per half.

I was ready to send out an SOS after the 62 points SHG scored Week 1, but I have to say the Rocket defense has improved every week and produced well beyond my best case expectations. This has occurred despite missing a key DL for the entire season.

 

[The_Oldfan]

I wanted to get a better idea of how the teams schedules match up. Following is my methodology to get closer to an apples-to-apples comparison. Looking at CHS’s schedule, they played two 4A schools during the regular season (Herrin and Murphysboro) and of course two 4A schools during the playoffs (Geneseo and Coal City). For Rochester, its only 4A school on its schedule for regular season is SHG with the reminder are 5A or 6A schools. For purposes of this comparison, I removed Lanphier, Southeast and Eisenhower as their wins only came against each other in CS8 closed conference. This left RHS with 6 regular season games against 4A or higher and 2 playoff games.

For those eight games, Rochester averaged 43 points on offense and 19 points on defense. Since the opening loss to SHG, the defense is giving up 13 points per game. Carterville for the 4 teams identified is scoring at 30 points per game and giving up 11 points. It should be noted that Rochester calls off the dogs once a game is in control or the Running Clock has started so it is important to look at points scored by half. For those eight games, Rochester averaged 33 points in the first half and 10 in the second half. For Carterville, the average of points scored for the 4 games are 15 points per half.

Don't misunderstand me, I still expect a Rockets win. I m just trying to be a word of caution to those who, like I was, tend t o be dismissive of teams from south of I64. SHG, I believe through overconfidence, almost flushed what could still be a dream season down the sewers of Waterloo.

 

[MalleusMaleficarum]

Don't misunderstand me, I still expect a Rockets win. I m just trying to be a word of caution to those who, like I was, tend t o be dismissive of teams from south of I64. SHG, I believe through overconfidence, almost flushed what could still be a dream season down the sewers of Waterloo.

Well, at least Cyclones fans are used to the team being overconfident when it comes to playoff games!!