I was thinking, maybe we can find a little common ground. Something I don't think I mentioned is the question of why Campbell went for it on those 4th downs. What exactly made him come up with those decisions? Was it his gut? Or, was it analytics? If it was his gut and what he was seeing, I have a problem second-guessing some of the choices. However, if this stuff was mostly analytics or totally analytics, then shame on him. If it's a combination of the two, then I am not sure I agree with that either.Again, my apologies. I'll be sure to cancel my plans and stay home so I can be glued to my phone so I can provide up to the second analysis during the Super Bowl.
If you would have been with me last week you would have heard me say as they were lining up to go for it, "this is dumb, kick the FG."
There is an excellent article about this subject in today's USA Today. There are some quotes from Jimmy Johnson who thinks analytics should have a place for use. But overusing them is a risky game. Now, I do agree with that.
Johnson said, "It doesn't tell you the strength of your offense, the strength of the opponent. It doesn't give you the weather. It doesn't give you a lot of factors. It doesn't give you momentum. It doesn't give you the risk and the reward. And that's what I always said. It's a 70% positive to go for it on fourth down. But the risk is that you lose the game if you don't make it."
So, again, if Campbell based his decisions solely on analytics I don't agree. But if it was in his gut and what he was watching, it's a totally different discussion. The point is, if you're going to lose, lose your way instead of the way of analytics.