One of the computer rating systems is going to be wrong. While CalPreps has Wilmington a 3-point favorite over Montini (as shown in this thread), Massey is predicting a 34-14 victory for Montini.
For those who may be interested:
The Massey computer ratings clearly did a better job of predicting this game than CalPreps. Although it is not wise to read too much into a single outcome, I have done several studies over the last five years that have demonstrated the same result. Massey consistently outperforms CalPreps in predicting outcomes for games.
However, for those who might be thinking it would be a good thing to use the Massey ratings for seeding the playoffs, a word of caution is in order. It seems Massey, in part, uses data from prior seasons when making playoff predictions. For example, the Massey power ratings just prior to the playoffs starting had York making it to the championship game this year. That was a remarkable prediction, but there is no way a computer program could have arrived at that conclusion based solely on data from this year. York finished third in the West Suburban Silver Conference this year and was convincingly defeated by both Lyons Township and Downers Grove North. York's playoff success the two prior years had to be part of the equation.
Most people would agree the seeding of teams should be based solely on the current year's performance. They would also agree seeds should reflect what has been earned just as much as reflecting ability. Lyons deserved a better seed than York this year but Massey's power ratings would not have yielded that result. It is also important to note that Massey provides two different sets of ratings, one of which does, to a degree, consider the ranking that a team deserves. Similarly, CalPrep's predictions are not based on the same formula it uses to rank teams.
So, in conclusion, Massey does a significantly better job at predicting high school football games than CalPreps does. But, one has to be careful about which set of rankings they might use if they want to use the rankings for seeding purposes.
Thank you for your indulgence in allowing me to post this information in this thread. It is not a natural fit, but it did seem appropriate given the wide disparity between the two systems in relation to the Montini prediction, and the CalPreps prediction was used in this thread.
Note: Massey predicted (before the playoffs began) a
Loyola vs. York final in 8A, and a
Mt. Carmel vs. Batavia final in 7A. It also predicted Montini over Byron and Maroa-Forsyth over Quincy Notre Dame, two of the more difficult calls to make in predicting this year's playoffs. No doubt, a bit of luck also plays a role.
Massey's championship predictions prior to the playoffs beginning:
8A - Loyola
7A - Mt. Carmel
6A - East St. Louis
5A - Nazareth
4A - Rochester
3A - Montini
2A - Maroa-Forsyth
1A - Lena-Winslow
