Its been tossed around before, but I don't think I've seen anyone take a formal attempt at laying out what it would look like.
Below posts will be a look at a Football Enrollment methodology.
Basic Method;
1. Your Football enrollment is your opponents enrollment averaged, with the top and bottom enrollment eliminated
2. I excluded out of state opponents
3. This was a judgement call, but I multiplied all private school enrollment figures. I think if a modernized FE were to be implemented this would need to be looked at. It didn't have huge impact if I did it on unmultiplied. For the private schools, an average change of 192 to the football enrollment number. Seemed to impact the smaller private schools more than the CCL/ESCC guys.
Results by class will be in the post below. Here are the cutoffs though compared to the current enrollment cutoffs in 2024
Class | Current Range | FE Range |
1A | (0 - 292.5) | (220 - 325) |
2A | (296.5 - 403.5) | (325 - 436) |
3A | (406.5 - 542.5) | (439 - 580) |
4A | (553 - 844) | (581 - 997) |
5A | (848 - 1,272.5), | (1,017 - 1,373) |
6A | (1,723 - 1,802) | (1,377 - 1,666) |
7A | (1,604 - 2,156) | (1,666 - 2,173) |
8A | (2,190 +) | (2,190 +) |
Where would the 16 state finalists have been? So we'd have a least 4 new finalists. And potentially more depending how brackets were to shake out. YES, private schools have inflated. Not to be unexpected, but I'll point out that at least a couple traditional power public school programs / recent state finalists have as well: Rochester 5A, Cary Grove 7A, Prairie Ridge 7A, Kankakee 7A (probably more, but those were a few I noticed)
1A - Lena (L.-Winslow)
2A - Maroa (M.-Forsyth)
3A - Monticello
4A - Palos Heights (Chicago Christian)
4A - Mt. Zion
5A - Belleville (Althoff Catholic)
6A - LaGrange Park (Nazareth Academy)
6A - Chicago (DePaul)
6A - Lombard (Montini)
7A - Wilmette (Loyola Academy)
7A - Joliet (Catholic Academy)
7A - Chicago (Mt. Carmel)
7A - Geneva
7A - Batavia
8A - East St. Louis (Sr.)
8A - Elmhurst (York)
Classes to follow;