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LA vs. York

Thoughts......Trap game for Hollywood? Mental let down after the hype of the LWE game? Or York under rated thrives in the role of underdog and plays free and easy and takes down the team that knocked them out the last two years for payback? I thought York gave them an excellent if not a better game then LWE (did in the finals) in the semi's last year to be honest! York O-line is huge and D-Line anchored by the ND recruit. QB super fast and RB pretty impressive. York is very good. I think this will be a close game for sure !
I, too, thought about the possibility of a trap game, but I then I discarded it.

If this were the regular season, perhaps it could be a trap game for Loyola after a big win. But we are talking about the final game for all the marbles. I gotta believe that Loyola will be stoked to be in the championship game. If they aren't up for this game, then they deserve to lose it.

I am definitely looking forward to this game. During the regular season, Loyola beat GBW by 35 and York beat them by 10. Loyola beat LWE by 3, East beat NC by 21, and NC lost to York by 5. I realize that the common opponent comparison isn't always all that reliable and should not be given too much weight. Then there is Loyola beating York the last two years as you pointed out. Is that more of a motivation for York to get revenge or perhaps it's in their head that Loyola just has their number? Then there is the been there, done that factor. How much will experience come into play for a Loyola program that is making its third straight appearance in the championship game (with many current Ramblers playing in or being at those previous games), versus a York program making its first ever title game appearance?

Success Factor/NAZ

At this point, it doesn't matter anyways. Head coaches don't have to teach all day, can pick salaries, recruit all day long. Oh by the way then, if you don't win playoff games you can play down
If you don't win playoff games you're probably not good. Also the public schools voted on the multiplier waiver. It was said then that this would happen and the private schools would be spread over more classes.

Bears

Can we get a new coach? I am so over this nonsense. Eberflus is a defensive coach but can’t seem to inspire the players. We make dumb mistakes constantly and can’t stop anyone. It’s definitely not the Bears defense we’re used to having.
Don't hang this season on the defense. In the big picture they are doing their job. They are giving up an average of 19 points a game. No matter whose defense it is, teams will give up more points than their average now and then. The Bears have given up 22 or more points only twice this year. I would like you to find another team that can say that and still only have four wins.

Bracket Dark Horses (spoilers)

As true dark horses that have at least a small chance of winning a title, I will go with:

1A - LeRoy (Everyone seems to have Althoff and Lena-Winslow ahead of them, so this should qualify.)
2A - Chicago Christian (They have a difficult path and no playoff pedigree, but their only loss was to 4A Wheaton Academy.)
3A - St. Joseph - Ogden (Although unbeaten, clearly both Byron and Montini would be considerable favorites over them.)
4A - Normal University High School (They are battle tested in the Central State Eight.)
5A - Morgan Park (Forget the Chicago Catholic League, let's go Public League here.)
6A - Geneva (I will stay away from the Flyers as long as possible and go with a DuKane co-champ.)
7A - Downers Grove North (The Trojans regain early-season form and sweep to the title.)
8A - West Aurora (Do you believe in miracles?)

Edit: After posting the picks above, I checked the CalPreps rankings to make sure the teams could reasonably be viewed as dark horses. I believe they all can be viewed that way. Here are the CalPreps rankings within their respective classes:

LeRoy - 3rd
Chicago Christian - 6th
St. Joseph - Ogden - 4th
Normal U-High - 11th
Morgan Park - 7th
Geneva - 3rd
Downers Grove N. - 7th
West Aurora - 18th

All are ranked 3rd or worse, and even where they are as high as 3rd or 4th, they are ranked behind powerhouses such as: Althoff and Lena, Byron and Montini, East St. Louis and Cary-Grove.
Two more dark horses fall in the semifinal round (LeRoy and Normal U-High), but that means two others advanced to the championship game. As noted above, I tried to stay away from East St. Louis for as long as possible with my 6A pick. Now, there is nowhere to hide. Geneva's chances seem slim because I doubt they can keep the Flyers from pressuring their quarterback. Chicago Christian seems to have a better chance. I do not think they are better than Maroa-Forsyth, but Maroa has had some big, unexpected playoff setbacks over the last decade. Hopefully Chicago Christian can break through so at least one of my dark horses goes all the way.
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Success Factor/NAZ

Forgot the success factor and go with the zip code factor.
This one scares me. Because of how many private schools will win titles this year, based on emotion and people wanting to see change, I'm afraid this vote might actually make it across the finish line.

There are several small private schools that would end up getting pushed up several classes. The entire Chicagoland Christian Conference for example. A school like Chicago Christian could be 6a.
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Loyola (Hollywood) vs LW East (Beast)

I rewatched the game since I was there in person, and mainly watched the Loyola drives. Here's my main takeaway: Loyola executed. We sometimes forget that these are high school kids that make penalties, blow coverage, miss field goals or drop passes. Fitzgerald was 22-29, and from my count only had two bad throws and the WRs had maybe 2 that could be caught. That's efficient.

Loyola was 9/13 on 3rd Downs. The 4 non-conversions ended with FG, FG, INT, 4th down conversion for the win on the offsides. That long drive in the 2nd quarter was a back breaker with 3 conversions of 5/10/3 yds. That's when they were getting that momentum and that drive ended in a TD. Avg distance to convert was 4yds

LWE played a heck of a game on defense. Crazy to say, but the bend but don't break approach worked for the most part. I think Loyola knew the biggest weakness was the secondary and that's why LWE had their corners so far off the ball and were getting crushed by those 5-6 yard hitches. It's hard to blitz when the Loyola O-Line is so big and the QB/RB are such good runners. I think I counted only 1 successful blitz pressure that resulted in an overthrow.
Loyola got the breaks when they needed it. Like I said, I didn't watch the LWE drives but here's what I saw. A punt return with 40 sec left in the half had a miracle fumble recovery by them which would have swung momentum back to East. That onside kick at the end of the game from our view looked like LWE had it, the video looked like they had it, but Loyola must have ripped that out and secured it in the pile. There was a 2nd&22 in the 3Q where the WR had a great twisting catch and then the next play was that questionable pass interference against LWE. DB didn't turn but it looked like there was no contact and the ball hit him first and the back judge chucked the flag instead of the ref near the ball.

An interesting thing that probably helped LWE to save clock was that the refs had some questionable spots on 1st down calls to move the chains on 2nd or 3rd down. Some were very close and every one went to Loyola. I noticed a few quick 1st down calls by the side judge only to have the ball placed down almost short of where they needed to be.

Overall, I don't know what more LWE could have done on DEF other than maybe tightening up the gaps on the corners to contest better. Also, there were a few times in that 2nd quarter where LWE probably should have called a timeout on Defense to gives those kids a rest and slow Loyola down. On that 1st Loyola TD, it was 2nd & 10 on the 13 and there was slight confusion on rotation and LWE showed blitz. Loyola saw that and checked out of the original play and then called that perfect seam pass. IMO, they're 4wide and your receivers are all playing man with no help with a QB/RB that could run past that blitz. I thought it was bad in person and looked bad rewatching it.

On offense it looked like LWE just turtled up in the 2nd and then after halftime. Tried playing hero ball with Williams even though he got some rushing yards. Some of the flat passes were lucky to not be picked off and there was only a handful of designed RB runs. Just a disappointing game plan on offense.

Success Factor/NAZ

When the playoffs started in 1974, regardless or Public or Private the formula was the average enrollment of your conference, or your own enrollment if it was higher than the average.
The all boys schools had their enrolment number doubled.
A bit later they made it the average enrollment of your opponents with the highest and lowest being dropped from the calculation.
Personally I prefer either of those to the hodge-podge of multiple variables that is now used.
Seeing where schools would land this year with FE would be a fun exercise
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LA vs. York

Thoughts......Trap game for Hollywood? Mental let down after the hype of the LWE game? Or York under rated thrives in the role of underdog and plays free and easy and takes down the team that knocked them out the last two years for payback? I thought York gave them an excellent if not a better game then LWE (did in the finals) in the semi's last year to be honest! York O-line is huge and D-Line anchored by the ND recruit. QB super fast and RB pretty impressive. York is very good. I think this will be a close game for sure !

MMXXIV Edition - CCL-ESCC Predictions Week XIII

One of the computer rating systems is going to be wrong. While CalPreps has Wilmington a 3-point favorite over Montini (as shown in this thread), Massey is predicting a 34-14 victory for Montini.
Montini getting points on their home turf was one of the weirdest calpreps predictions I can remember seeing. In the round 2 matchup vs Byron, the Broncos were 27-26 favorites. I don't think even the most die hard Wilmington fan would have thought the Wildcats were FAVORITES over either of those teams, especially on the road, even if the Wildcats had been fully healthy.
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