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Q of the Week: So what's the fix?

If I was the Czar, for the two private schools classes I would just use their straight up enrollment (doubled if still single gender). Of the total amount of privates or non boundary schools, the 32 with the best records make the playoffs (same IHSA playoff points system to break time breakers) and the split is purely enrollment based. Biggest 16 in the Large bracket, the smallest 16 in the Small bracket.
All... A math problem that would change year to year but with the amount of privates (and does this proposal include non boundried football playing publics?) would it change the win threshhold greatly to make the postseason? Ratsy
 
If I was the Czar, for the two private schools classes I would just use their straight up enrollment (doubled if still single gender). Of the total amount of privates or non boundary schools, the 32 with the best records make the playoffs (same IHSA playoff points system to break time breakers) and the split is purely enrollment based. Biggest 16 in the Large bracket, the smallest 16 in the Small bracket.
Lucky for you this czar has the data to show this;

v2.0 corrected for data error that wasn't picking up DePaul and Routt Catholic. Boylan Catholic and one of Bloomington Central Catholic or Ottawa Marquette are bumped (they appear to be tied across all metrics). JCA up to large class (thank goodness)

Large Class
16 - Chicago (Westinghouse College Prep) at 1 - Chicago (Whitney Young)
15 - Burbank (St. Laurence) at 2 - Chicago (Marist)
14 - Chicago (Prosser) at 3 - West Chicago (Wheaton Academy)
13 - Chicago (Brother Rice) at 4 - LaGrange Park (Nazareth Academy)
12 - Lisle (Benet Academy) at 5 - Wilmette (Loyola Academy)
11 - Joliet (Catholic Academy) at 6 - Wheaton (St. Francis)
10 - Chicago (Mt. Carmel) at 7 - Chicago (St. Rita)
9 - Chicago (Simeon) at 8 - Oak Park (Fenwick)

Small Class
16 - Ottawa (Marquette)/Bloomington (Central Catholic) at 1 - Belleville (Althoff Catholic)
15 - Jacksonville (Routt) [Coop] at 2 - Quincy (Notre Dame)
14 - Peoria (Notre Dame) at 3 - Palos Heights (Chicago Christian)
13 - Chicago (C. Hope Academy) at 4 - Chicago (North Lawndale Charter)
12 - Springfield (Sacred Heart-Griffin) at 5 - Sterling (Newman Central Catholic)
11 - Chicago (King) at 6 - Lombard (Montini)
10 - Rockford (Lutheran) at 7 - Chicago (Agricultural Science)
9 - Chicago (DePaul) at 8 - Normal (University)


Out of Playoffs
One of Marquette/BCC
Rockford (Boylan Catholic)
Decatur (St. Teresa)
Chicago (Payton)
Aurora (Marmion Academy)
Chicago (Noble/Bulls)
 
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If I was the Czar, for the two private schools classes I would just use their straight up enrollment (doubled if still single gender). Of the total amount of privates or non boundary schools, the 32 with the best records make the playoffs (same IHSA playoff points system to break time breakers) and the split is purely enrollment based. Biggest 16 in the Large bracket, the smallest 16 in the Small bracket.
What would the 32 teams and 2 brackets look like for 2024?
 
If they separate then screw the public schools. The private school leave IHSA & start their own association & public schools can’t play privates any more in any sport sadly no more Prep Bowl then
All.... It could be done but for the lower half of the state a logistical nightmare for privates that are spread out. Games played M-Thurs in other sports requiring distance and travel will be not only expensive (for many) but late nights getting back home. Ratsy
 
My off the cuff proposal would look something like:

Prep Bowl - Invitational (used Massey ratings)
1 - Wilmette (Loyola Academy)
2 - Chicago (Mt. Carmel)
3 - Chicago (Marist)
4 - LaGrange Park (Nazareth Academy)
5 - Joliet (Catholic Academy)
6 - Chicago (St. Rita)
7 - Oak Park (Fenwick)
8 - Chicago (Brother Rice)

Prep Bowl - Classic (next 16 qualifiers, seeded/qualified under current rules)
1 - Chicago (Whitney Young)
2 - Belleville (Althoff Catholic)
3 - Quincy (Notre Dame)
4 - West Chicago (Wheaton Academy)
5 - Palos Heights (Chicago Christian)
6 - Wheaton (St. Francis)
7 - Chicago (North Lawndale Charter)
8 - Sterling (Newman Central Catholic)
9 - Lombard (Montini)
10 - Chicago (Agricultural Science)
11 - Chicago (Simeon)
12 - Normal (University)
13 - Lisle (Benet Academy)
14 - Rockford (Lutheran)
15 - Chicago (DePaul)
16 - Chicago (Prosser)

Prep Bowl - Traditional (all others eligible for current prep bowl, along with boundaried CPS and non-qualifier CCL, basically same format as now, but open to additional private schools)
 
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Here is the bigger question.

As far as non boundary goes...do all Chicago Public Schools fall under this category? Some "boundaried" loosely in a sense and some true non boundaries ones.
 
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My off the cuff proposal would look something like:

Prep Bowl - Invitational (used Massey ratings)
1 - Wilmette (Loyola Academy)
2 - Chicago (Mt. Carmel)
3 - Chicago (Marist)
4 - LaGrange Park (Nazareth Academy)
5 - Joliet (Catholic Academy)
6 - Chicago (St. Rita)
7 - Oak Park (Fenwick)
8 - Chicago (Brother Rice)

Prep Bowl - Classic (next 16 qualifiers, seeded/qualified under current rules)
1 - Chicago (Whitney Young)
2 - Belleville (Althoff Catholic)
3 - Quincy (Notre Dame)
4 - West Chicago (Wheaton Academy)
5 - Palos Heights (Chicago Christian)
6 - Wheaton (St. Francis)
7 - Chicago (North Lawndale Charter)
8 - Sterling (Newman Central Catholic)
9 - Lombard (Montini)
10 - Chicago (Agricultural Science)
11 - Chicago (Simeon)
12 - Normal (University)
13 - Lisle (Benet Academy)
14 - Rockford (Lutheran)
15 - Chicago (Prosser)
16 - Burbank (St. Laurence)

Prep Bowl - Traditional (all others eligible for current prep bowl, along with boundaried CPS and non-qualifier CCL, basically same format as now, but open to additional private schools)
I gotta have Montini, St. Francis, Althoff, and QND in that top bracket.
 
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Your carefully crafted response is true, as far as it goes. However, given that there were no playoffs in 2020 due to COVID, and given that IC Catholic won the 3A championship in 2016 and 2017 (in addition to the 2022 championship you referred to), that means those two schools have won four of the last eight 3A championships. That seems fairly frequent to me.

Additionally, when considering the substance of my statement, as most fair-minded individuals would do, it should also be observed that the primary reason the two schools did not win more 3A championships during that time span is the fact that IC Catholic was busy winning the 4A title in 2018; and Montini was busy finishing second to Joliet Catholic in the 2018 5A championship game.

I stand by the statement I made.
To quote you again- yes that is the standard order of things. We all see you cherry picking your data like we don’t all know “14 of 18” in 3 classes is only 6 years of results excluding more than half of the other classes. Your logic is specious
 
My off the cuff proposal would look something like:

Prep Bowl - Invitational (used Massey ratings)
1 - Wilmette (Loyola Academy)
2 - Chicago (Mt. Carmel)
3 - Chicago (Marist)
4 - LaGrange Park (Nazareth Academy)
5 - Joliet (Catholic Academy)
6 - Chicago (St. Rita)
7 - Oak Park (Fenwick)
8 - Chicago (Brother Rice)

Prep Bowl - Classic (next 16 qualifiers, seeded/qualified under current rules)
1 - Chicago (Whitney Young)
2 - Belleville (Althoff Catholic)
3 - Quincy (Notre Dame)
4 - West Chicago (Wheaton Academy)
5 - Palos Heights (Chicago Christian)
6 - Wheaton (St. Francis)
7 - Chicago (North Lawndale Charter)
8 - Sterling (Newman Central Catholic)
9 - Lombard (Montini)
10 - Chicago (Agricultural Science)
11 - Chicago (Simeon)
12 - Normal (University)
13 - Lisle (Benet Academy)
14 - Rockford (Lutheran)
15 - Chicago (Prosser)
16 - Burbank (St. Laurence)

Prep Bowl - Traditional (all others eligible for current prep bowl, along with boundaried CPS and non-qualifier CCL, basically same format as now, but open to additional private schools)
No 4A champ anywhere? DePaul?
 
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I gotta have Montini, St. Francis, Althoff, and QND in that top bracket.
Just gotta decide if you wanna have byes. With byes a 10-12 team format makes sense. But I personally think stretching to 16 gets you too far in opening up disparities. 8, maybe 12 max makes it a "big deal" verse "we need a couple extra sacrificial lambs so we can round out 4 weeks of playoff football"

Next 8 per Massey:
St Francis
Montini
St Ignatius*
Providence*
Althoff
St Laurence
DePaul
IC*
*current non playoff qualifiers. Only CPS school in top 100 is Morgan Park who i guess is boundaried. No sign of QND on Massey ratings... So definitely some diminished returns too far past 8-10 (if the goal was done sort of open/best class)
 
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No 4A champ anywhere? DePaul?
Good catch. Ihsa has them listed under 2 different names on different parts of site so I didn't pick them up off the multiplier page back to enrollment. Possible I could have missed others, but can be hard to check because the IHSA multiplier page includes teams that don't sponsor football. So I have to go line by line to find any other missing ones.
 
Good catch. Ihsa has them listed under 2 different names on different parts of site so I didn't pick them up off the multiplier page back to enrollment. Possible I could have missed others, but can be hard to check because the IHSA multiplier page includes teams that don't sponsor football. So I have to go line by line to find any other missing ones.
I think I fixed them all. Eyeballing my multiplier schools who I can't tie back to the schedule... I think they are all non football schools... At least for private. Public/open boundary I'm not as familiar with.
 
Lucky for you this czar has the data to show this;

v2.0 corrected for data error that wasn't picking up DePaul and Routt Catholic. Boylan Catholic and one of Bloomington Central Catholic or Ottawa Marquette are bumped (they appear to be tied across all metrics). JCA up to large class (thank goodness)




Out of Playoffs
One of Marquette/BCC
Rockford (Boylan Catholic)
Decatur (St. Teresa)
Chicago (Payton)
Aurora (Marmion Academy)
Chicago (Noble/Bulls)

In addition to those out of the playoffs, you would have a situation where Ignatius doesn't even qualify for them yet they destroyed the number 1 seed of the large school division in post season play.

It always amazes me how willing boundaried public schools are to throw their non-boundaried public school brethren under the bus so as to avoid bad optics of singling out private schools only. Wimps.
 
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All... A math problem that would change year to year but with the amount of privates (and does this proposal include non boundried football playing publics?) would it change the win threshhold greatly to make the postseason? Ratsy
Well for 32 total private schools I ended up dropping 6. I should be down 32 overall so I should end up dropping 26 public schools qualifiers (I'll run those brackets later I hope).

So publics lose 4.3 per new class. Private schools lose 3 per class. One year snapshot, but over 256 I think that's actually pretty substantial and I'd expect public schools would lose more qualifiers relative to private schools in any year under that hypothetical.
 
Public only 6 classes. Any eyes catching non-boundary or private I missed is appreciated.

1A (161 - 345 enrollment)
1 - LeRoy vs. 32 - Clifton (Central)
2 - Lena (L.-Winslow) vs. 31 - Catlin (Salt Fork)
3 - Johnston City vs. 30 - Fithian (Oakwood)
4 - Downs (Tri-Valley) vs. 29 - Galena (H.S.)
5 - Hardin (Calhoun) [Coop] vs. 28 - Mt. Sterling (Brown County)
6 - Maroa (M.-Forsyth) vs. 27 - Tuscola
7 - Camp Point (Central) vs. 26 - Bridgeport (Red Hill)
8 - Casey (Westfield) vs. 25 - Carthage (Illini West)
9 - Gibson City (Melvin-Sibley) vs. 24 - Stockton
10 - Arthur (A.-Lovington-Atwood-Hammond) vs. 23 - Carrollton
11 - Momence vs. 22 - Winchester [West Central Coop]
12 - Chester vs. 21 - Kewanee (Wethersfield) [Annawan-Wethersfield Coop]
13 - Rushville (R.-Industry) vs. 20 - Princeville
14 - Toulon (Stark County) vs. 19 - Sesser (Valier) [Coop]
15 - Lanark (Eastland) [Eastland-Pearl City Coop] vs. 18 - Warrensburg (W.-Latham)
16 - Greenfield [G.-Northwestern Coop] vs. 17 -Toledo (Cumberland)
 
2A (350 - 500)
1 - Byron vs. 32 - Oregon
2 - St. Joseph (Ogden) vs. 31 - Dwight [Dwight/Gardner-So. Wilmington Coop]
3 - Farmington vs. 30 - Stanford (Olympia)
4 - Wilmington vs. 29 - Fairfield
5 - Bismarck (B.-Henning-Rossville-Alvin) vs. 28 - Flora
6 - Sullivan [Sullivan-Okaw Valley Coop] vs. 27 - Shelbyville
7 - Pecatonica [Du-Pec Coop] vs. 26 - Virden (North Mac)
8 - Williamsville vs. 25 - Niantic (Sangamon Valley) [Coop]
9 - Chicago (Marshall) [Coop] vs. 24 - Westville
10 - Nashville vs. 23 - Paxton (Buckley-Loda)
11 - Vandalia vs. 22 - El Paso (Gridley)
12 - Pana (H.S.) vs. 21 - Peotone
13 - Elmwood [E.-Brimfield Coop] vs. 20 - DuQuoin (H.S.)
14 - Eureka vs. 19 - New Berlin [Coop]
15 - Seneca vs. 18 - Carmi (White County)
16 - Taylor Ridge (Rockridge) vs. 17 -Monticello
 
3A (511 - 869)
1 - Chicago (Sullivan) vs. 32 - Taylorville
2 - Breese (Central) vs. 31 - Genoa (G.-Kingston)
3 - Chicago (South Shore) vs. 30 - Marengo
4 - Olney (Richland County) vs. 29 - Sandwich
5 - Dixon (H.S.) vs. 28 - Morris
6 - Waterloo (H.S.) vs. 27 - Mt. Zion
7 - Princeton vs. 26 - Chicago (Clemente)
8 - Rochelle vs. 25 - Johnsburg
9 - Monmouth (M.-Roseville) vs. 24 - Centralia (H.S.)
10 - Greenville vs. 23 - Columbia
11 - Rochester vs. 22 - Benton
12 - Carterville vs. 21 - Tolono (Unity)
13 - Richmond (R.-Burton) vs. 20 - Roxana
14 - Cahokia (H.S.) vs. 19 - Murphysboro
15 - Manteno vs. 18 - Chicago (Dyett)
16 - Coal City vs. 17 -Macomb
 
4A (882 - 1,460)
1 - Sycamore (H.S.) vs. 32 - Freeport (H.S.)
2 - East St. Louis (Sr.) vs. 31 - Chicago (Goode)
3 - Kankakee (Sr.) vs. 30 - Chicago (Perspectives/Leadership) [Coop]
4 - Belvidere (North) vs. 29 - Country Club Hills (Hillcrest)
5 - Chicago (Morgan Park) vs. 28 - Maple Park (Kaneland)
6 - Peoria (H.S.) vs. 27 - Marion (H.S.)
7 - Washington vs. 26 - Dunlap
8 - Mahomet (Seymour) vs. 25 - Jacksonville (H.S.)
9 - Wauconda vs. 24 - Bensenville (Fenton)
10 - Crystal Lake (Prairie Ridge) vs. 23 - Glen Ellyn (Glenbard South)
11 - Burlington (Central) vs. 22 - Oak Forest
12 - Woodstock (North) vs. 21 - Calumet City (Thornton Fractional North)
13 - Troy (Triad) vs. 20 - Metamora
14 - Antioch vs. 19 - Crete (Monee)
15 - Grayslake (North) vs. 18 - Chicago (Corliss) [Coop]
16 - Highland vs. 17 -Lemont (H.S.)
 
5A (1,466 - 1,990)
1 - Quincy (Sr.) vs. 32 - Springfield (H.S.)
2 - Cary (Grove) vs. 31 - Chicago (Amundsen)
3 - St. Charles (North) vs. 30 - Collinsville
4 - Libertyville vs. 29 - Wheaton (Warrenville South)
5 - Oak Lawn (Richards) vs. 28 - West Chicago (H.S.)
6 - Batavia vs. 27 - Villa Park (Willowbrook)
7 - Geneva vs. 26 - Hoffman Estates (H.S.)
8 - Rockton (Hononegah) vs. 25 - Fox Lake (Grant)
9 - Des Plaines (Maine West) vs. 24 - New Lenox (Lincoln-Way Central)
10 - Chicago (Kennedy) vs. 23 - Rockford (Guilford)
11 - Chatham (Glenwood) vs. 22 - Chicago (Mather)
12 - Bloomington (H.S.) vs. 21 - Arlington Heights (Hersey)
13 - Pekin vs. 20 - New Lenox (Lincoln-Way West)
14 - Normal (Community West) vs. 19 - Addison (A. Trail)
15 - Machesney Park (Harlem) vs. 18 - Palos Heights (Shepard)
16 - Lake Forest (H.S.) vs. 17 -Bradley (B.-Bourbonnais)
 
6A (2,029 +)
1 - Frankfort (Lincoln-Way East) vs. 32 - Glenview (Glenbrook South)
2 - LaGrange (Lyons) vs. 31 - Gurnee (Warren)
3 - Oswego (H.S.) vs. 30 - Schaumburg (H.S.)
4 - Aurora (West Aurora) vs. 29 - Chicago (Curie)
5 - Palatine (H.S.) vs. 28 - Orland Park (Sandburg)
6 - Lombard (Glenbard East) vs. 27 - Tinley Park (Andrew)
7 - Naperville (Central) vs. 26 - South Elgin
8 - Palatine (Fremd) vs. 25 - Belleville (East)
9 - Lincolnshire (Stevenson) vs. 24 - Park Ridge (Maine South)
10 - Downers Grove (North) vs. 23 - Edwardsville (H.S.)
11 - Normal (Community) vs. 22 - Plainfield (South)
12 - Chicago (Lincoln Park) vs. 21 - Minooka
13 - Barrington vs. 20 - Chicago (Taft)
14 - Naperville (North) vs. 19 - Algonquin (Jacobs)
15 - Elmhurst (York) vs. 18 - Moline (H.S.)
16 - Mt. Prospect (Prospect) vs. 17 -Downers Grove (South)
 
26 Public schools not qualifying in a 6 class all-public setup who did qualify, in order of first out
Stillman Valley
Nokomis
Carlinville
Huntley
Erie [E.-Prophetstown Coop]
Mt. Carmel
Fairbury (Prairie Central)
Rolling Meadows
Sterling (H.S.)
Red Bud
Mackinaw (Deer Creek)
Kewanee (H.S.)
Moweaqua (Central A & M)
Tinley Park (H.S.)
Aurora (Christian)
Geneseo
Deerfield (H.S.)
Summit (Argo)
Aurora (Waubonsie Valley)
Chicago (Senn)
Joliet (West)
Skokie (Niles West)
Dupo
West Frankfort (Frankfort)
Harrisburg
Chicago (Kenwood)
 
Terrible idea. Play on a campus of one of the two teams. MC has won 15 straight playoff games - not sure how many were "away" -- but it certainly was significant .
Just counting on MaxPreps (and I'm not infallible), it looks like they've played 9 at home and 6 away since the 21-22 season not counting finals games
 
26 Public schools not qualifying in a 6 class all-public setup who did qualify, in order of first out
Stillman Valley
Nokomis
Carlinville
Huntley
Erie [E.-Prophetstown Coop]
Mt. Carmel
Fairbury (Prairie Central)
Rolling Meadows
Sterling (H.S.)
Red Bud
Mackinaw (Deer Creek)
Kewanee (H.S.)
Moweaqua (Central A & M)
Tinley Park (H.S.)
Aurora (Christian)
Geneseo
Deerfield (H.S.)
Summit (Argo)
Aurora (Waubonsie Valley)
Chicago (Senn)
Joliet (West)
Skokie (Niles West)
Dupo
West Frankfort (Frankfort)
Harrisburg
Chicago (Kenwood)

What did Aurora Christian ever do to you to deserve to be included in such a list? ;)
 
What did Aurora Christian ever do to you to deserve to be included in such a list? ;)
Knew I was gonna miss someone 😂. I swore I had done a search for "christ" but maybe I only did that among the final qualifiers.

No harm no foul. 7 private / 25 public in the final (maybe) count of excluded schools in a hypothetical 6 / 2 separate format.
 
Only top 32 overall (public and private) teams play for IHSA state championship - record, win margin, and select seeding committee weighted - with no regard to off-season residency transfers. Allow the athletes to play and transfer to wherever is the best place for them and their talents.

While not politically possible, it would fix the current challenge of loaded scholarship-bought private teams under an exaggerated or plain false academic / religious focus, dramatically reduce the nuanced and exaggerated claims of many suspect team’s on-field FB dominance, and likely return prep football to a time when public conference championships actually mattered as an achievement level. Private school dominance is still way overblown as most know regardless of 2024, but a level of fairness in how the rules apply to everyone needs to be re-established for IHSA’s credibility/integrity in football.

And the final product would be much better at every old level or region due to real rules.
I do not like win margin on any level. This causes programs that can run up the score to do so. It also minimizes #2/#3 playing time which in many cases hinders their ability to perform when needed or lack of experience the next year. I’ve seen this effect here at MS. I hated “Maine Southing” kids. Except for New Trier
Never take the gas off on that one!
 
My thoughts on how I would fix it.

Keep in mind I know some of these aren't realistic, will never pass, just what I would do if I was in charge.

1. Move multiplier to 2.2.
2. However, schools will be classified as either 1) their multiplied enrollment or 2) the average multiple enrollment of the teams they play, whichever is bigger
3. Use Maxpreps to seed the playoffs (but keep playoff qualifications the same). Go 1-32 for all classes.
4. Add significant restrictions for public to private transfers where the family doesn't move at least 50 miles.
5. Change enrollment radius from 30 miles to 20 miles.
 
My thoughts on how I would fix it.

Keep in mind I know some of these aren't realistic, will never pass, just what I would do if I was in charge.

1. Move multiplier to 2.2.
2. However, schools will be classified as either 1) their multiplied enrollment or 2) the average multiple enrollment of the teams they play, whichever is bigger
3. Use Maxpreps to seed the playoffs (but keep playoff qualifications the same). Go 1-32 for all classes.
4. Add significant restrictions for public to private transfers where the family doesn't move at least 50 miles.
5. Change enrollment radius from 30 miles to 20 miles.
From my understanding of the legal process surrounding transfers number 4 ain't gonna happen. IHSA knows they can't win anything too restrictive. I'm sure some know the finer details than me.

For 5. While surely a small number of kids fall in the 20 to 30 mile zone, that's still over a 50% reduction of area to pull students from. That seems to really be putting pressure on schools trying to keep doors open. The private school threats to break away are usually pretty hollow, but further restricting recruitment area when most are already suffering from declining enrollment is a really good selling point to leaving the IHSA I'd think. Especially since it'd presumably fall on all sports, so impact is felt widespread.

I think you could multiply private schools by 100 before restricting the radius and have abetter shot of keeping them.
 
For 5. While surely a small number of kids fall in the 20 to 30 mile zone, that's still over a 50% reduction of area to pull students from. That seems to really be putting pressure on schools trying to keep doors open. The private school threats to break away are usually pretty hollow, but further restricting recruitment area when most are already suffering from declining enrollment is a really good selling point to leaving the IHSA I'd think. Especially since it'd presumably fall on all sports, so impact is felt widespread.
I wonder what the reduction in current student numbers would be if this happened
 
I wonder what the reduction in current student numbers would be if this happened
Surely will vary by school. Naz would be fine I'm pretty sure. As would Benet, Ignatius, Fenwick... any school that is turning away applicants. Most schools are pretty eager to get students in the door though. If a school lost 5 that would suck for them.
 
I do not like win margin on any level. This causes programs that can run up the score to do so. It also minimizes #2/#3 playing time which in many cases hinders their ability to perform when needed or lack of experience the next year. I’ve seen this effect here at MS. I hated “Maine Southing” kids. Except for New Trier
Never take the gas off on that one!
From what I heard people talk about with the Stagg game they may start calling it LincolnWay Easting! 🤣
 
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