IHSA Playoff Section Process

[HRCJR]

Sick of teams playing schools substantially smaller in non-conference play. Reward the schools that against schools that are larger. Here goes.

I have a method to seed teams or perhaps select teams.

Take a schools enrollment

Divided that number into the average enrollment of the schools of the teams played (after throwing out the largest and smallest). I call this the Opponent Factor

Multiple that result by the team's wins to arrive at what I call Achievement Points.

Example of two schools that played each other in Round 1:

Lake Forest - Enrollment 1672 5 Wins

Opponents and Enrollment
Lombard (Glenbard East) 2248
Arlington Heights (St. Viator) 1371.15
Lincolnshire (Stevenson) 4029
Gurnee (Warren) 4158
Libertyville 1936
Lake Zurich 1921
Zion (Z.-Benton) 2590
Mundelein (H.S.) 2004
Waukegan (H.S.) 4618

Viator and Waukegan Removed from Calculation

Average size of Opponents: 2698

Opponent Factor: 2698/1672 = 1.613

Achievement Points = 1.613 * 5 = 8.068

Riverside Brookfield - Enrollment 1619 8 Wins

Opponents and Enrollment
Berwyn-Cicero (Morton) 8186
Wauconda 1351
Norridge (Ridgewood) 846
Aurora (Central Catholic) 963.6
West Chicago (Wheaton Academy) 647
Elmhurst (IC Catholic) 523.05
Bensenville (Fenton) 1487
Elgin (St. Edward) 590.7
Glen Ellyn (Glenbard South) 1172

Morton and IC Removed from Calculation

Average size of Opponents: 1008

Opponent Factor: 1008/1619 = 0.623

Achievement Points = 0.623 * 8 = 4.98

Based on Achievement Points Lake Forest is a clear favorite over RB. That was proven on the field last week.

I did the same with Cary Grove at St. Ignatius last week and the Achievement Points clearly showed that CG was a strong favorite. And based on the results the Achievement Point system worked.

This system does not punish a team from playing a larger school and losing. It encourages team to play bigger schools.

RB should not be playing Wauconda in a non-conference game. It should try to schedule against a Fenwick or a St. Rita or a Addison Trail.

I say select teams based on Achievement Points. I will donate Free of Charge.

 

[BBCHS77]

So reward R-B for playing bigger Morton, punish them for playing smaller Rochester?

 

[MS4EVER]

Why is everyone so pissed about playoff pairings? First people cry about privates. Then about how many classes. Then about 1-32. Now everyone needs to get in and also play bigger schools. Just stop.

 

[HRCJR]

So reward R-B for playing bigger Morton, punish them for playing smaller Rochester?

Yes.

 

[TPF523]

Yes.

 

[go dogz]

Yes.

you forget a critical weighed component. competition points, they need to be playing top32, top16, (top8 extra points) for larger playoff schools. same with even sized schools top 32 teams should be playing same or better for competition points, in class.
I see your point for larger schools but also have to factor in if you are better than them or not. can give them a little more juice and same goes for smaller schools, if you play a top8 smaller school and you are a typical top 32 or top16 team(meaning you make the playoffs every year or at least 2nd rd) you should get competition points, or at the very least even. because in reality those top8 smaller schools should be just as competitive as your school or very close.
if you play top16, top8 larger schools you get more competition points than you would playing larger schools that do not consistently make the playoffs. you should be able to beat or play them very very close.

 

[HRCJR]

I ran this for Herscher HS and its opponent for this weekend. For Hescher the average sizes of its opponents (after dropping the largest and smallest) is 572. Herscher size is 569. So the opponent factor is 1.005. This gives Herscher 8.042 Achievement Points.

For Taylorville the average sizes of its opponents (after dropping the largest and smallest) is 849. Taylorville size is 777 So the opponent factor is 1.092. This gives Taylorville 8.741 Achievement Points.

This makes Taylorville a slight favorite against Herscher.

 

[HRCJR]

you forget a critical weighed component. competition points, they need to be playing top32, top16, (top8 extra points) for larger playoff schools. same with even sized schools top 32 teams should be playing same or better for competition points, in class.
I see your point for larger schools but also have to factor in if you are better than them or not. can give them a little more juice and same goes for smaller schools, if you play a top8 smaller school and you are a typical top 32 or top16 team(meaning you make the playoffs every year or at least 2nd rd) you should get competition points, or at the very least even. because in reality those top8 smaller schools should be just as competitive as your school or very close.
if you play top16, top8 larger schools you get more competition points than you would playing larger schools that do not consistently make the playoffs. you should be able to beat or play them very very close.

I just thought of this today. I am around a lot of RB people and they could not believe that RB lost to Lake Forest two years in a row. I said compare the schools that each team plays. LF's opponents average 1000 students more. RB's opponents average 600 fewer. Who is more prepared.

I will work to add some strength of schedule factor as well.

 

[Vikes76]

Cant control a conference schedule without switching conferences.

Also, what happens to achievement points when a team is heavily favored to beat an opponent and loses or barely wins the game? The achievement points should be reduced then.

 

[crusader_of_90]

Has no one watched Friday Night Tykes and know that Texas uses an algorithm to account for all of the factors everyone above mentions?

PLAYOFF CALCULATION INDEX (PCI)

The Oracle Method Algorithm

In order to ensure a fair playoff system, TYFA utilizes "The Oracle Method" when determining who makes the playoffs and their seeding.

The system takes the W-L-T records that are in the game center and runs it through a 20 page algebraic formula 2000 times. POINTS scored and given up are IGNORED. A team's standings are NOT increased or decreased when a score is "run-up" or a team is "blown-out".

The Algorithm gives teams points for wins. It then evaluates the teams and gives more points for a win against a strong opponent.

So if Team A is 6-1 and beats a 6-1, they get x amount of additional points. But if Team A is 6-1 and they beat a 1-6, there aren't any extra points.

With any mathematical equation, any situation, even with this advanced method, ALL THINGS COULD STILL BE THE SAME (a tie). To help avoid that, the system adjusts points based on WHEN you win during the season. So beating weak teams late in the season doesn't help as much as if you schedule was tough at the end.

So for example, the system will start out with a .000125 for a win in week 2 and then increase the points you "earn" on week 3, week 4 etc. Essentially, a team that wins as the season progresses earns more points with this system.

 

[TPF523]

I just thought of this today. I am around a lot of RB people and they could not believe that RB lost to Lake Forest two years in a row.

They couldn’t? They must be a bit out of touch with reality.

 

[Quags57]

I just thought of this today. I am around a lot of RB people and they could not believe that RB lost to Lake Forest two years in a row. I said compare the schools that each team plays. LF's opponents average 1000 students more. RB's opponents average 600 fewer. Who is more prepared.

I will work to add some strength of schedule factor as well.

So we should change things so RB can win some playoff games. Little clue here...play better.

 

[No Bias---Just Reality]

People sure do come up with some damn complex formulas for this "stuff" when all you have to do is go the the district system where everyone plays in their own class.... refer to that thread for details if need be.

 

[4Anorth]

Don't just assume that teams are scheduling smaller enrollment schools just for "easy" wins.Had a nice discussion with the Morris AD last Saturday and he was talking about the problem he is trying to find a week 3 opponent for next season.That's a much tougher find than a week 1 or 2 game since most conferences start league play.The past 2 years Morris played Quincy Notre Dame,a school smaller than themselves.Do some schools look for a "win" yes,but for the vast majority they don't have many options.