Who is better than them in that bracket besides the top 2 and possibly the 3rd team I listed?
Ask Soucie: Week 9 Playoff Projections here
- Thread starter EdgyTim
- Start date
Who is better than them in that bracket besides the top 2 and possibly the 3rd team I listed?
I am going on having seen all of SHG's games thus far this year, and other information I have. Besides the 3 you named, I see them behind Danville, Normal West, Richards, Shephard and even Peoria if they get in a shootout with them.
Rather than just say this and leave it at that, it is only fair to give some reasons why they just do not have the "it" this year.
Offense line is nowhere near the lines they have had in the recent past.
The pass defense at times is non-existent. You do know that Rochester went out to a 35-6 lead on them, right. And that is being kind to SHG. For three and a half quarters, they were deer-in-the-headlights bad. Can't even begin to get away with that in 6A.
Kicking game is also nowhere near what they have had in the last 5 or 6 years.
No way they stop some of the running games I have seen from teams in their bracket.
This team has also had more lapses in concentration at times this year than I can remember. Some of it, because of non-football stuff, is even understandable.
"Leadership" on this team, if there ever was any, is AWOL.
Most of the above could perhaps be overcome in a 5A South Bracket, but all I see is an early exit from 6A for them this year.
To some it up, this year's version of the Cyclones is not ready for prime time.
Lake Park
Plus the calculation is way too difficult if you layer in two weeks of compounded odds.
Finally, I walked that comment back later when others suggested DGN would paste DGS.
The 38th point for Crete was from RC's Week 9 forfiet not from week 1-8 so they are still tied after 8 weeks of play (technically Crete should be down 1 point due to IN school already playing 9 games)... They are only looking at points from RE/Kankake, LWE, and then hoping for RS or Bloom wins just to get to 41/42.
NWest is guaranteed 40(4 opponents playing each other), Normal Comm should get them 41 and Manual/O'Fallon should lead to at least 42 if not 43...
Weak based on Crete standards... They played those big 3 in the first 3 weeks (Brother Rice is 2-6, yes in the CCB, but still 2-6) but have some mop up games against some less than stellar teams the rest of the year. Only other playoff team in their week 4-9 is RC who has a forfiet and 2 wins against 0-8 teams, unless Bloom pulls off the upset of RI Alleman...
NWest only loss comes to Normal Comm who is likely the 7A #2 overall seed. They played defending state champs in Peoria High(2017 Playoff team), another 7A school in O'Fallon, Danville who only lost to NWest and NComm, and 2 other likely playoff teams in Peoria Notre Dame & Peoria Richwoods. Might not have the LWE or the Layfeyette games but still no walk in the park... And as stated above will come out ahead of Crete in playoff points barring some fluke that NComm or Peoria High lose to lesser teams this weekend...
Completely agree. Plus you have the fact that their offensive backfield has been resembling a scene from the walking dead the way they have had guys getting injured. I'd put Richards or NWest ahead of STL. STL being ranked up there is a complete bias towards Chicago Catholic League which they play in the weak side of... Nice W vs IC Cath and hung with Rita but lost to Lisle and wins against some lesser opponents...
Probably pretty good. He has Hoffman beating Palatine this week which isn't a slam dunk. The Battle of Anyways
Sorry to steal your thunder but something I'm pretty confident on I'll answer. I've studied that spreadsheet for weeks.
Fellas...Naz in the South? And if so do they come in as a 1 above Normal and Crete or 3?
NAZ will be the 3 if they come south... They currently have 35 points and at most can get 5 points this week. Unless both Crete & NWest opponents completely choke Naz would be the 3 at highest in either North or South bracket.
If this actually happens could end up with Crete(2), NAZ(3), SHG(7), and PC (11) in the South Bracket. Good news is none of them would play each other in the round 1. Bad news only one of them can make the semi's... Some great quarterfinal matchups there!
History isn't on Naz side to go south. Never have as long as I can remember. My guess would be IHSA would pull a western outlier south such as DeKalb or Marmion.
Last edited:
Can't get Marmion in the south without having DeKalb in, unless the IHSA draws an island. This, by no means, doesn't mean it won't happen...haha!!
Phillips - 41.8243586
Sterling - 41.8026206
Sterling not south by much. Morgan Park is way south of sterling but Lindblom and Solorio are also South by less than a minute with their coordinates.
Cap'n,
What's your super accurate Massey point spread of each of those four games?
Massey Calpreps
NV -3 -6
WV +7 +8
DGS +18 +18
Z-B +7 +7
And please feel free to show me where I have claimed Massey to be "super accurate."
It honestly feel like you have a bone in your ass about me, which I find kind of funny. I guess you are the only authority who is allowed to offer opinions about the cut line? Why not sit back, enjoy a highball and recognize that we are all here to have some fun.
Cheers!
I have just presented the info on cut lines and others can make their own determination of the projected outcomes.
Regardless of the results of the games tonight, characterizing GW as solidly in 7A is not accurate.
So glad this is over tonight. Hope you get to come back tomorrow and drop all of my quotes citing probability to show just how right you are.
Such a sad life
Come on cap - It's not that bad. We are in the at the peak of hs football for the year. 8A would be awesome with GW. With all the fantastic teams capable of winning, adding GW into the mix would make for one heck of a battle royale. Kind of like the WWF back in the day. The interest will be off the charts!
Using Betting Talk website for converting point spreads to Odds, the new calculation for probability of at least one team from NV, WV, DGS and Z-B winning tonight is:
1-(.426*.703*.950*703)= 78.7% probability.
What percentage would you consider solid, GE?
I am fine with GW going 8A. What I am tired of is the semantics argument over what "solidly" means. GW in 8A looks like they would be in bottom bracket, so would be fun.
Well at least I now know to never discuss anything with you where the final answer hasn't been determined. Hypotheticals are beyond your grasp if any probabilities get assigned.
No, solid was a not a good choice of words and especially for a professional writer and you took the time to try to defend it.
zzzzzzzzzz.....huh? all of this verbal vomit because you don't like using probability of future games using point spreads, while I think it adds some intrigue. Perfect. You use discrete numbers and with no forward looking probabilities and I will continue to have some fun playing with numbers.
Your beef with Soucie over "solidly" can be viewed as technically correct, but it also smells of someone incapable of having a fun discussion about a topic we all know and love. I will choose the fun stuff. You can cling to your semantics.
I don't have a beef with Soucie. I respect him for all the time he takes to figure out his projections (and I know it takes time). I do not think everyone grasps that he has to make an educated guess at future outcomes and I personally do not think guessing the outcomes of four competitive games can be described as solidly.
I only try to show the 7A/8A cut line possibilities and let others assign likelihood (and 8A and 1A are the easiest, since there is a defined starting point for the 32 teams in those classes).
The only beef here is you taking to all the time to try to defend the "solidly" response.
I think the definition of "solidly" is, well, rather solid.
- in a firm or secure manner
- in a thorough manner
- without any spaces or gaps- without interruption; continuously
- in a unanimous or undivided manner
- in a dependable or reliable manner- in a unanimous or undivided manner
- in a sound or consistent manner but without any special qualities or flair
The argument is whether "solidly" can be used to describe the outcome of four games tonight.
The good news is that if nothing else we have all learned the definitions of War and Solidly this week. So even if all of our playoff brackets don't come to fruition we have all learned so much.
Cap'N,
How about we present this probability as a non-linear bound function, and then propagate the error in the calculation. Perhaps that would satisfy GE Preps. I know that was a bit Smug!
How about we present this probability as a non-linear bound function, and then propagate the error in the calculation. Perhaps that would satisfy GE Preps. I know that was a bit Smug!
Similar threads
Latest posts
-
-
-
Option Football LOVERS.... and haters- Latest: Kevin JCHS 81
-
