All.... Or kinda of a small crooked stick. I love the week before playoffs trying to figure out who is going where and how is the IHSA going to behave. Ratsy
Ask Soucie: Week 9 Playoff Projections here
- Thread starter EdgyTim
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All.... Or kinda of a small crooked stick. I love the week before playoffs trying to figure out who is going where and how is the IHSA going to behave. Ratsy
Where do we go then? I wouldnt be surprised if the results of the game are based on the best case scenario.
I still have you as the #6 seed. Who will go in the bottom bracket. MS should get 43 pp while the Brook at 42.
Best case is to lose so you go bottom bracket!
Pretty sure the absolute highest seed MC would reach is 19. That assumes they pass Benet on points and RM loses to BG and loser of LWC and Andrews drops below MC which is currently 22. With a win against PC, my guess is they end up 20.
Pretty sure Brook goes bottom bracket no mater what happens this weekend. If they win, they go down as #6 and play #27. If they lose, they likely go in as #14 or #15 barring major upset and play someone like Curie or ND. Don't see any scenario that puts them in top bracket.
Batavia would move to 4 seed and SCN would be 5 seed setting up a remath in the quarters. LZ would move to lower bracket as 3 seed rather than 4 seed.
Crete's Opponents week 9 -
LWE - Bollingbrook -LWE Wins 1 Playoff POint
Brother Rice - Loyoal - B Rice Loss No points
Bloom Township - Rock Island Alleman - Bloom Loss No Points
Rich East - Kanakee - Guaranteed point played both
Rich Central - already got W from forfiet
Rich South - East Moline United - RS Win 1 Point
Kankakee - See above no points
Unless Bloom & B Rice pull upsets that's 4 points Crete to get to 41...
N West Opponents Week 9 -
Peoria - Galesburg - Peoria Wins 1 point
O'Fallon - Granite City - O'Fallon wins 1 Point
Champaign Centennial - Peoria Richwoods - Plays both so guaranteed 1 point
Normal - Champaign Central - Normal wins 1 point
Danville - Bloomington - Plays both guaranteed 1 Point
Bloomington - Danville - See above
Manual - Urbana - Manual wins 1 point
Richwoods - Centennial - See above
Some of these are questionable... Peoria, Normal are locks, 2 others guaranteed, so NW only needs O'Fallon or Manual to beat other terrible teams for the south to go to NW
So what we are assuming here is that Viator will lose to ND and having Viator's 2 nonconference opponents both winning to get the 6 points, correct?
Given the teams in your 7A and 8A projected brackets do not include Downers South, Zion-Benton, or Waubonsie Valley winning their week 9 games (and qualifying for 8A field as schools with larger enrollment than Glenbard West), the statement above means that only Neuqua Valley will prevail as an 8A projected team needing to win in week 9 to qualify.
If Neuqua also loses then Glenbard West qualifies in the 8A bracket.
Why are you so confident about Neuqua Valley as a "solid" favorite to defeat Glenbard North?
Aurora Christian should get to 40, which appears to be the magic number for complete field security. As for the 2A/3A placement, too many small schools to give you a clear idea of which teams would push them to 3A, but the more small schools that have 4-4 records that win this week, the more likely AC goes 3A.
I'm not confident at all. But I guess I'm 51/49 and I can't pick tie. This whole process doesn't work if I don't make a call.
Here's the thing about Glenbard North/Neuqua. It doesn't matter who wins the game in terms of slots in 8A, if Glenbard North wins they simply take Neuqua's spot in the projection. Neuqua almost certainly misses on points if they lose.
Glenbard North and Neaqua may just swap spots in the 256 team playoff field, but Glenbard North has a lower enrollment than Glenbard West, so if North wins, West is solidly in the 8A field as one of the 32 largest enrollment schools.
I understand your projections are based on picking winners, so that is why the comment that GW was solidly in the 7A field was a bit puzzling. NV vs GN does not have a consensus projected winner.
1. Barrington, 2. Marist, 3. LWE, 4. H-F, 5. Maine South, 6. Brook, 7. Huntley (Brook over Huntley on second stage tiebreak)
I know that. I just think it is more likely they stay home not only because of Neuqua, but because of the presence of other 4-4 teams in the 8A mix that could win that I currently have projected to lose (i.e. Waubonsie). This game is definitely a pivot. And I have no reason to believe that I have any more handle on a DuPage Valley outcome based on my previous performance. The question asked what I thought was more likely and that's my gut talking. Gut is wrong. A lot. Gut is right sometimes too.Glenbard North and Neaqua may just swap spots in the 256 team playoff field, but Glenbard North has a lower enrollment than Glenbard West, so if North wins, West is solidly in the 8A field as one of the 32 largest enrollment schools.
I understand your projections are based on picking winners, so that is why the comment that GW was solidly in the 7A field was a bit puzzling. NV vs GN does not have a consensus projected winner.
Just so we all understand this, when this discussion started, the two teams were tied. Since then, Crete-Monee added a point because the Bloom/Rich Central game had not gone final.
So right now, Crete-Monee has 38-37 lead, is guaranteed to get points from RC, RE/Kankakee winners to get to 40. LWE is 41. If RS or Bloom win that gets them over 41 to 42/43
NWest probably gets to 41 and needs Manual or O'Fallon to get them to 42/43.
Second stage if they tie is the same. (They both lost to 9-0 teams giving them same number of playoff points against teams they beat if they remain tied.)
Gut says its probably a coin flip.
This projecting stuff is fun.
I know that. I just think it is more likely they stay home not only because of Neuqua, but because of the presence of other 4-4 teams in the 8A mix that could win that I currently have projected to lose (i.e. Waubonsie). This game is definitely a pivot. And I have no reason to believe that I have any more handle on a DuPage Valley outcome based on my previous performance. The question asked what I thought was more likely and that's my gut talking. Gut is wrong. A lot. Gut is right sometimes too.[/QUOTE]
It’s like a math equation. If you have three games that the required team has a 40% chance of winning and a fourth team with a 50% chance of winning, the odds of one of those teams winning is higher than picking one particular team to be the winner.
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Odds are very good though.
If all four teams (NV, WV, DGS, Z-B) have a 40% chance to win, the odds against them winning is 60%. The odds of all teams losing is :
6/10^4= .1296 which means the likelihood of at least one team winning is 1- .1296 or .8704 or 87% likely.
So if we say, on average the four above teams have a 40% chance of winning, there is an 87% chance at least one will win.
87% chance is solid from a math perspective.
Cheers
The equation is P(a)*P(b)*P(c)*P(d) = Pall of all four
Probabaility of one of them happening is 1-Pall
So even is you say WB is 80% likely to win and GN is 70%, you still end up with a probability north of 80% of getting at least one win.
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P(1 in 4) >85%
>85% = Solid Odds
Long shots happen but Soucie’s “solidly” has been validated
If the 13% happens, I think it would be fun for a couple of weeks. NV then Oswegoa then LWE then MS then we can party in Dekalb for GW / Brook.
I am all over that. Don’t want to talk too much smack to keep safe from the wilding 17 year olds.
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I beg to differ! Crete played Lincoln Way East, Brother Rice and West Lafayette #1 in their class in Indiana. Normal West could hang with any of those teams. Their toughest game was Normal Community?
Any chance of quads instead of N/S in 3A or 4A? 4A south in particular has projected three possible 4 hour drives in the first round...
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Why SHG at 4? I think you're being way too generous. This year they are a respectable 5A caliber team, but certainly not up to competing with the big or medium sized dogs in 6A. The double-barreled multiplier/"success adjustment" catches up with them in a big way this year. May be a force to contend with in 5A next year, however.
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