Like if he went to a school with no history of football success and built into a powerhouse?
After last season's 5A championship game I'd love to see Rochester
- Thread starter Solid Snake Pliskin
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Like if he went to a school with no history of football success and built into a powerhouse?
before, I believe, someone was saying there is no difference between the classes, now there is a huge difference between 6 and 7A?
What is the difference?
I don’t think their is a major difference between 7A & 8A but their is a huge difference between 8A & 6A.
8A the overall competition is tougher and the depth of the roster plays a big part.
The point of the thread was to consider Rochester vs ESL. I guess that will naturally lead into class discussion. Sure the argument is going to be Rochester can't physically hang with ESL, but I also thought Rita would be able to out physical the Rockets. Apparently I underestimated something about Rochester and am not willing to just hand ESL the W like I would have prior to the Rita/Roch game.
And the play calling was great. I don't like the "coaching" argument because so much goes into creating and maintaining successful program and coaching isn't all of it. So I'd call it a push in this instance.
And the play calling was great. I don't like the "coaching" argument because so much goes into creating and maintaining successful program and coaching isn't all of it. So I'd call it a push in this instance.
Prior to reading this thread I did a small study, just out of curiosity, to see what the difference was between class levels. I did not look at each class level in its entirety because that would have required far more time than I wanted to devote to the matter. So I just looked at the Freeman ratings for the most successful program in each class over the last five years. The Freeman ratings are the base computer ratings used by CalPreps.
The result was that, on average, there is a 4 point difference between each class level (3.93 points to be exact). That translates to roughly a one game difference per level. So a 9-0 3A team would be equivalent to an 8-1 4A team. It should not be surprising, though, that the difference is not uniform from level to level. And the differences change over time. Ten to fifteen years ago there was little difference between 7A and 8A. Now, with Lincoln-Way East having absorbed more students and the great Wheaton-Warrenville South teams having faded into the past, the difference between 8A and 7A is the largest of the class differences (12 points). 7A is now much, much closer to 6A. This explains why Huntley can be competitive with Cary-Grove and Prairie Ridge, but they tend to do very little in the 8A playoffs. Similarly, Glenbard West was consistently a championship contender in 7A, but has not made it to a championship game over the last five years in 8A.
While there is a 12-point difference between 8A and 7A, the total difference from 7A down to 4A is only 9-1/2 points. This explains why Rochester moved successfully from 4A up to 5A and Nazareth moved successfully from 5A up to 7A. There is roughly a 10-point gap from 4A down to both 3A and 1A. This seemingly strange result is due to the fact that 1A is very top heavy, with both Lena-Winslow and Forreston being powerful 1A programs. There is a large drop in 1A after those two programs. The 2A class level, at least at the top, is the weakest of the eight classes. It is 10-1/2 points worse than 3A.
The methodology used in this abbreviated study would not pass scientific scrutiny, but it does give some indication of the differences between classes. While 8A is clearly the powerhouse, the surprising conclusion is that there is not a huge difference between 4A, 5A, 6A and 7A.
There has always been a difference between classes come playoff time. It has always been said that ANY school from 5A - 8A can win any class however the road would be tougher. Naz has proved that point considering they are a multiplied 5A school. That being said the arguement is typically a specific team ability to be successful in other classes. To me any top team can compete.
So when was Glenbard West consistently a CHAMPIONSHIP contender in 7A and now they are not in 8A? The championship teams that Glenbard West had could win any class. The teams that didn’t win 8A would not have won 7A either.
At first when I saw you type Freeman ratings I was immediately skeptical. But the way you filled it out made sense. Doesn't necessarily mean it's correct, but it's reasonable.
Glenbard West has been remarkably consistent (consistently excellent) over the past 11 years in regular season games. During that stretch they competed in the 7A playoffs six times and the 8A playoffs five times. They reached the 7A championship game three times (50%), winning two titles. They reached the 8A championship game zero times (0%). That is a qualitative difference in outcomes and the reason might be that the 8A level of competition is more difficult. It is speculative, but I believe their 2014 team would have won the 7A championship (as they did the following year) and I think their 2016 team would have made it to the 7A championship game. They were certainly better than three of the four 7A semifinalists that year (Fenwick, Benet and Plainfield North).
There is no difference between the top 5 teams 7A and 8A but when you go to teams 6-10 there is more depth in 8A and difference is even bigger in teams 10-15. Things change 10 years ago 7A was better and at some point it will be better again.
As a GW fan, I always are rooting for as many 8A teams to have winning seasons so GW can be in 7A. GW can compete with most 8A teams but against the best of the best they do not have the size, depth and balanced offense to compete. Against the LWE, Loyolas of the world they have been exposed. GWs best team might have been able to win 8A but their average teams get eliminated in the 2nd round when they would have been at least a semi finalist in 7A
I agree and the key word is “Could”. I don’t see a 5 or 6A Team beating the 7 or 8A team in a state title game. On a rare occasion you will find a team like ESL last year that might but that’s very rare. If a 5 or 6A school had to play the 7 or 8A regular season schedule or even the playoff schedule the odds are not good. You have teams like MC, Loyola, LWE, MS, GBW, HF, BB, NAZ, Sorry I don’t see Rochester beating any of these schools after playing a 7A or 8A Schedule.
Naz is 5A!
I agree with your Rochester comment which is why I say it is based solely on the school.
I agree with this 100%. Last year Simeon gave Naz all they can handle. This past year PR took them to the wood shed. ♂️
2016 7A semis were Fenwick, Plainfield, Benet and ESL. GW would have beaten 3 of 4. A 2 loss GW lost to Loyola in the 8A semis.
2017 7A semis were Batavia, Benet, Mt Carmel and Lake Zurich. GW competes well with that group. Lost in 8A second round to Oswego. Maybe don’t make the semis in 7A that year
2018 7A semis were Naz, Batavia, Mt Carmel and St Charles North. I think GW competes well with that group. 2 Loss GW got hammered by LWE in round 2. Still think they could have gotten to a 7A semi if they had to go through Batavia or STN.
2019- 7A Semis Naz, Mt Carmel, Willowbrook and Rolling Meadows. I think GW could have taken out WB or RM. In 8A GW lost in second round to Loyola.
GW was historically a 7A team. They compete against good but not great 8A teams in their conference but can not consistently hang with the top 8A teams but I think they could with 7A. Main reason they have been bumped up to 8A is big schools that normally make the playoffs have been down recently. Again the best of best GW teams could have probably played with the best 8A teams but 7A is where year in year out they would have the best results.
if they are they were playing 7A teams in the playoffs? In any case point being they play some 7 A teams and this helps them compete at a higher level. When does Rochester play higher level competition? In my opinion they would struggle.
Classes are based on enrollment and not skill. To pretend like every team in 8A is tough to beat is just as in accurate as saying any smaller school can win 8A. Each team in each season is built differently. There are certain schools that always seem to be in the hunt and should be respected regardless of class.
Those are some pretty bold assumptions you are making in terms of 7A. In Illinois High School football playoffs, your exit is based on the team you play. Example, in 2016 clearly GBN was a semi team in terms of skill however they lost second round to the state champ. They lost on a last second play. If we look at that year, GBN beat 8A NV 35-14 a week before GBW beat NV in the first round of the playoffs by 3. Both of those were NV only losses that season. You highlighted the semis but there was no guarantee that you would not have met ESL or GBN in the second round. If so, there is a good argument that you would have been eliminated in the second round of 7A as well. Again, it's all about matchups.
Those are some pretty bold assumptions you are making in terms of 7A. In Illinois High School football playoffs, your exit is based on the team you play. Example, in 2016 clearly GBN was a semi team in terms of skill however they lost second round to the state champ. They lost on a last second play. If we look at that year, GBN beat 8A NV 35-14 a week before GBW beat NV in the first round of the playoffs by 3. Both of those were NV only losses that season. You highlighted the semis but there was no guarantee that you would not have met ESL or GBN in the second round. If so, there is a good argument that you would have been eliminated in the second round of 7A as well. Again, it's all about matchups.
Again, I can't defend Rochester as I don't know enough about them. I know Naz was 7A because of the success factor only. Winning 7A was impressive for a 5A team based on enrollment.
No. As players rotate in and out from year to year, each team is unique from season to season. However, some programs are far more consistent than others and Glenbard West is one of those programs under Chad Hetlet.
Let us look at the Chad Hetlet era. He has been head coach for 13 seasons at Glenbard West. He inherited a team that went 1-8 the prior season, so if we can allow him one transitional season, let's look at how consistent they have been over his last 12 seasons. The team has finished in first place 11 times and in second place 1 time in the West Suburban Silver Conference over those 12 years. That is consistency. But let's take it further. Of those 11 first place finishes, 9 have come in years that they went unbeaten in the conference and consequently were sole conference champions (as opposed to co-champion). That is 9 times out of the last 12 years. That is consistency. But let's take it further. Of those 9 seasons when they were the unbeaten conference champion, 8 times their season-long scoring margin ranged from a low of +20.8 points per game to a high of +28.7 points per game. So, on 8 occasions over the last 12 years based on two objective measurements (unbeaten conference season and scoring margin) Glenbard West's teams were within 4 points of their average team. [Please keep in mind I mean average for them.] That is consistency. So, it is from that basis of consistency that we can now look at how they have performed in the playoffs to see if there might be a difference in the level of competition between 8A and 7A.
Glenbard West's 9 best teams under Chad Hetlet are ranked below from best to worst. Since all of them were unbeaten conference champions, they are ranked based on their season-long scoring margins. The scoring margin is displayed to the right of the year, and their respective playoff finish is shown to the right of the scoring margin. [As an example, the notation 8A-16 means they advanced to the round of 16 in the 8A playoffs; and 7A-4 means they advanced to the semifinals in the 7A playoffs.]
1. 2019 (+35.6) 8A-16
2. 2011 (+28.7) 7A-16
3. 2008 (+26.5) 7A-4
4. 2013 (+25.9) 7A-4
5. 2012 (+25.4) 7A-1 (championship)
6. 2015 (+24.4) 7A-1 (championship)
7. 2014 (+23.8) 8A-4
8. 2009 (+23.5) 7A-2
9. 2017 (+20.8) 8A-16
Of their 9 best seasons, they played in the 8A playoffs three times and the 7A playoffs six times. They made it to the championship game three times, all in the 7A playoffs. Furthermore, their best team (by almost a full 7 points) lost in the round of 16 in the 8A playoffs. Clearly Glenbard West is competitive at the 8A level (look at their 2014 performance), but it is my contention they have a better chance to break through and win a championship at the 7A level because the competition at that level is not as difficult as it is at the 8A level. As I and others have pointed out previously, these differences in competitiveness do change over the course of time, but as things stand right now 8A is considerably tougher than 7A.
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There are soooooooo many more variables than conference win margins
It’s too hot to mow, so I’ve gone back and looked at Rochester’s 4a title teams to make an educated guess how each might have done in 5a or 6a that year. It’s a mixed bag but I think only the 2010 team could have made a deep run in 6a, several teams could have done well at 5a, and several probably topped out at 4a.
2010. This team was 14-0 and beat Rock Island Alleman 24-7 in the 4a final. They gave up only 145 points all season and beat SHG and Chatham in conference play. Chatham lost to Montini 34-21 in the 5a final. Rochester beat Chatham 49-21 in the regular season. Rockford Boylan beat Marmion 48-19 in the 6a final. Never saw Boylan play but they won handily. The reason I think the 2010 team would have done well at 6a is that it was Derek’s biggest and most physical team. Biggest OL by far. Starters went on to play at U of I, Iowa, Eastern and Western.
2011. This team was 12-2, lost to SHG and Chatham, and beat Richmond Burton 42-39 in the 4a final. Wes Lunt passed for 500 yards but the defense gave up over 500 rushing yards to RB. This team could score but was small defensively and starting several Sophomores. Doubt they would have done much in 5a or 6a.
2012. 13-1, losing to SHG by 3, and beating Rock Island Alleman 43-18 in 4a title. This was a well balanced team, led by Garett Dooley at RB-LB who is the closest Rochester has come to having a player be in the NFL (practice squad for Minnesota and Detroit). However, 5a and 6a were both solid in 2012. SHG lost by 10 to 5a runner-up Morris in the semi’s.
2013. The ring gate year, where Rochester was 14-0 on the field and 13-1 officially after having to forfeit their 38-33 win over SHG. Though they struggled to beat Geneseo 16-8 in the 4a final, this was a really strong team. SHG won the 5a title over Montini. 6a champ was Batavia. A 5a rematch with SHG would have been very interesting. Batavia probably too strong at 6a.
2014. 12-2, losing to MacArthur in an upset and getting clocked by SHG.
This team beat Phillips in the 4a final 49-28, but SHG was awesome in 2014. They won the 5a final over Montini, who became the only team to play an entire game with SHG that year. 6a champ was Nazareth.
2016. 13-1, losing to SHG by 5 and beating Johnsburg 38-14 in the 4a final. Peoria beat Vernon Hills in a shootout in the 5a final. Rochester would have been very competitive with either team. Prairie Ridge blew out SHG in the 6a final 48-17. Don’t think Rochester would have done better.
2017, 14-0 beating Morris 24-21 on a last second field goal. Morris played a great ball control game, and Rochester just missed on a few long passes that had been TD’s all season. Overall, this was one Rochester’s best teams. Phillips beat Dunlap in the 5a final 33-7. A Phillips-Rochester rematch would have been a game of contrasts. Prairie Ridge beat Nazareth in the 6a final. Nazareth beat SHG at SHG in the Quarter Finals, not an easy feat. Rochester has yet to win at Ken Leonard Field.
Still 90 degrees, not mowing.
2010. This team was 14-0 and beat Rock Island Alleman 24-7 in the 4a final. They gave up only 145 points all season and beat SHG and Chatham in conference play. Chatham lost to Montini 34-21 in the 5a final. Rochester beat Chatham 49-21 in the regular season. Rockford Boylan beat Marmion 48-19 in the 6a final. Never saw Boylan play but they won handily. The reason I think the 2010 team would have done well at 6a is that it was Derek’s biggest and most physical team. Biggest OL by far. Starters went on to play at U of I, Iowa, Eastern and Western.
2011. This team was 12-2, lost to SHG and Chatham, and beat Richmond Burton 42-39 in the 4a final. Wes Lunt passed for 500 yards but the defense gave up over 500 rushing yards to RB. This team could score but was small defensively and starting several Sophomores. Doubt they would have done much in 5a or 6a.
2012. 13-1, losing to SHG by 3, and beating Rock Island Alleman 43-18 in 4a title. This was a well balanced team, led by Garett Dooley at RB-LB who is the closest Rochester has come to having a player be in the NFL (practice squad for Minnesota and Detroit). However, 5a and 6a were both solid in 2012. SHG lost by 10 to 5a runner-up Morris in the semi’s.
2013. The ring gate year, where Rochester was 14-0 on the field and 13-1 officially after having to forfeit their 38-33 win over SHG. Though they struggled to beat Geneseo 16-8 in the 4a final, this was a really strong team. SHG won the 5a title over Montini. 6a champ was Batavia. A 5a rematch with SHG would have been very interesting. Batavia probably too strong at 6a.
2014. 12-2, losing to MacArthur in an upset and getting clocked by SHG.
This team beat Phillips in the 4a final 49-28, but SHG was awesome in 2014. They won the 5a final over Montini, who became the only team to play an entire game with SHG that year. 6a champ was Nazareth.
2016. 13-1, losing to SHG by 5 and beating Johnsburg 38-14 in the 4a final. Peoria beat Vernon Hills in a shootout in the 5a final. Rochester would have been very competitive with either team. Prairie Ridge blew out SHG in the 6a final 48-17. Don’t think Rochester would have done better.
2017, 14-0 beating Morris 24-21 on a last second field goal. Morris played a great ball control game, and Rochester just missed on a few long passes that had been TD’s all season. Overall, this was one Rochester’s best teams. Phillips beat Dunlap in the 5a final 33-7. A Phillips-Rochester rematch would have been a game of contrasts. Prairie Ridge beat Nazareth in the 6a final. Nazareth beat SHG at SHG in the Quarter Finals, not an easy feat. Rochester has yet to win at Ken Leonard Field.
Still 90 degrees, not mowing.
Then let's look at Oswego, for example, and see their conference victory margin vs how they did in the playoffs
What Alex was showing was that GBW has been consistent. Non conference games show can also indicate something too.
Oswego wouldn't be helpful in this because they're not on a class border. Maybe we can look at MC as they've spent considerable time in both.
Or that their conference results have little baring on their results given there is a difference in their conference strength, class strength, and seeding based on a given year
MC playoff results....
2001 7A - Lost in 2nd round
2002 6A - Won Championship
2003 6A - Lost in 1st round
2004 6A - Lost in semifinals
2005 7A - Lost in Finals
2006 8A - Lost in Finals
2007 8A - Lost in semifinals
2008 8A - Lost in semifinals
2009 8A - Lost in quarterfinals
2010 8A - Lost in Finals
2011 8A - Lost in 2nd round
2012 8A - Won Championship
2013 7A - Won Championship
2014 7A - Lost semifinals
2015 7A - Lost in 2nd round
2016 - No Playoffs
2017 7A - Lost in semifinals
2018 7A - Lost semifinals
2019 7A - Won Championship
To answer this question specifically, 6-3 ESL made it to the 6A semis in 13 and they same team would have been a second round exit in 7A. In 14 a 5-4 ESL team made it to the Quarters in 6A. This past years team was never challenged in 6A. PR seemed to be the only team in 6A that could make the game interesting.
Although I thought ESL would win, MC, Naz, LWE, Warren and a few others would have made the game very interesting. Definitely wouldn’t have Cruz to blowout victories in 7A or 8A.
So accept the MC data and disregard the GBW data? Have we established MC's consistency yet?
I didn’t say throw out the GBW data. That data shows there is no difference between 7A and 8A. I said throw out the imaginary assumptions. Their best team lost in the second round of 8A. Their second best team lost in the second round of 7A. That’s the data.
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