According to Scoice’s
According to Soucie’s projections Antioch vs Fenwick 1st round.
Antioch recent history vs. Catholic schools in playoffs:
5A) 2023—lost 50-7 to Carmel
6A) 2022—lost 28-7 to Notre Dame
6A) 2018—lost 17-10 to Notre Dame
5A) 2017—lost 31-9 to Marian Central
In the past 4 playoff seasons (19-21-22-23) Antioch's only two playoff wins are running-clock games over teams from the Chicago Public League.
That said, Antioch is a perennial playoff participant, appearing in 11 of the last 13 postseasons.
I have zero facts behind this but I did watch last November's second-round playoff game in which the Sequoits were taken to the woodshed by Carmel 50-7, and I think that was the tipping point in terms of public-school Antioch getting KO'd in the playoffs by a Catholic school.
Last year, in going 10-0 before the Carmel slaughter, Antioch was averaging 53 points a game and beat its first 10 points by margins ranging from 21 to 70.
The excitement for that Antioch team had to be off the charts in that community. Yet, against Carmel, the running clock was inevitable, and in the aftermath, I suspect parents and school personnel and the large fan base in the community complained to each other about the perceived public vs. private non-fairness and this was the result.
Because of the relatively new rule change about private schools moving up in class via the success factor and/or receiving waivers from the dreaded enrollment multiplier, as luck would have it, it appears that a large number of Chicago Catholic League schools are now falling into the Class 5A enrollment range for the postseason.
So, I can understand the Antioch position of wanting to bow out while losing to a better team on what the Sequoits perceive more of an even playing field than what they've encountered in recent postseasons.
And after all this, I admit to being confused about the Fenwick Class 6A thing. The IHSA has them currently listed as a 7A team and there are two schools already with five wins that are listed in the IHSA's 7A list that are smaller than Fenwick (St. Rita is smaller than Fenwick but doesn't count as it has volunteered to play 7A). So, right now, it's not certain that Fenwick will even be a 6A team.
Plus, Antioch is pretty much a lock to finish 8-1 and Fenwick, even with a loss to Mt. Carmel, would surely finish 7-2.
In the last five postseasons in Class 6A, in the northern 16-bracket, there have been nine teams enter the postseason 8-1. In those nine game, the 8-1 team's opponent had a 5-4 record seven of the times and a 6-3 record the other two times.
A 8-1 team vs. a 7-2 team in Round 1 of the 6A playoffs just doesn't happen. And as the number of schools playing football shrinks and the number of 5-4 teams that actually get into the postseason increases (remember when some 5-4 teams didn't get in? Now, even a 4-5 team can possibly get in!) the odds of an 8-1 team playing a 7-2 team in Round 1 of the 16-team Class 6A postseason seems extremely extremely extremely remote.
If Fenwick stays 6A I want that rd 1 match up but I doubt that comes to fruition, but it would be funny.
In Catch-22's post Fenwick is the only private school in 6A.
The program moving up must be our friends from Antioch.
Would find it hilarious if they petition up and then draw CG round 1.
Impossible. Antioch will finish 8-1 and Cary-Grove 9-0. Impossible for them to meet in Round 1 of 6A playoffs.