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WSC Prediction Thread Wk 9

RD_Watcher

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Oct 5, 2019
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Well, here we are - the final week of the regular season. Unfortunately, this Friday night will be the final time many kids ever put on shoulder pads and a helmet. The final time they find themselves on a field of competition with their teammates. The final time they hear the cheers of the crowd from the sidelines. While they may not realize it now, in 20 years, the win/loss record will not matter.

The Gold Division has been clinched by Willowbrook, who will be the Conference Representative, firmly slated in the 7A Playoffs. With a win, DGS will get to 5 wins and almost certainly earn at At-Large birth in the 8A playoffs. Hinsdale South has an outside chance of making the playoffs with a win to get to 4-5, but would need a lot to happen elsewhere, as they currently sit with only 34 points (the projected current point cut line for 4-5 teams is 39, according to Catch-22s Wk 9 thread). PE, Morton, AT and Leyden are all assured to be turning in their equipment next week. Leyden could play spoiler on their way out, though. DGS needs to get to 5 wins, as they currently only have 33 points.

The Silver Division is much more.... fluid. HC, GW and York have all clinched playoff spots by way of 6 wins. LT, DGN and OPRF all sit at 4-4, and have paths to make the playoffs win or lose. The only school assured to complete their season this Friday night is Proviso West. While the top 3 have all clinched, the conference champion is still yet to be determined. At the least, HC is a Co-Champion. GW needs to win to be a Co-Champion. York needs to win, and for GW to win to be a Co-Champion. Just as important is claiming the conference representative spot in the playoffs, as this will give the rep school a higher seed.

Using the IHSA tie-breakers, if GW beats HC, it will come down to tie breaker 2 - Fewest total points allowed in Head to Head games between co-champions; or tie breaker 3 - Highest Point differential in Head to Head games between co-champions. As York is the only team to have played both HC and GW, they set the mark at points allowed with 37. GW gave up 12 to York, so has 24 to give; HC gave up 23, so has 14 to give. York's point differential is set at 6, GW currently sits at 2, and HC at 4. Of course, the only reason any of this will matter is if GW beats HC, and does so in overwhelming fashion. If GW wins in a close one - as recent history would suggest - York will be the conference representative.

As exciting as the HC @ GW game will be on Saturday afternoon, the Lyons @ DGN game will be just as important and drama filled. Both sit at 4-4, and both will qualify for an At-Large birth in the Playoffs - DGN likely in 7A, Lyons firmly in 8A. This is essentially a "must win" for Lyons, as they currently only have 37 points, and likely won't make it at 4-5. It's not so cut and dry for DGN, however, as they currently sit with 45 points, the most in the division. However, they would need several other games to fall their way, so for sake of argument, this is a "Win and you're in, lose and go home" scenario for both teams.

And finally, we come to OPRF, who faces York this week. Their win over DGN last week brought them to 4-4, and at 39 points, currently has them projected to be one of the few 4-5 teams to make the playoffs. An upset of York on Friday would assure them a spot, but even with at loss, they may still be practicing on Monday.

There are some games to make moves in the standings this week. This is a week where you may not be able to pick chalk and come out clean. Good luck!

Lyons Township (2-3, 4-4) @ Downers Grove North (1-4, 4-4)
Oak Park River Forest (2-3, 4-4) @ York (4-1, 7-1)
Hinsdale Central (5-0, 7-1) @ Glenbard West (4-1, 7-1)
Proviso West (0-6, 0-8) @ Proviso East (1-5, 1-7)
Addison Trail (0-5, 0-8) @ Hinsdale South (3-2, 3-5)
Willowbrook (5-0, 5-3) @ Morton (3-2, 3-5)
Downers Grove South (4-1, 4-4) @ Leyden (2-3, 3-5)
 
GW and OPRF winning is the only way GW wins the conference outright, and the only way GW becomes the Conference Rep.
Why wouldn’t GW be the conference rep if they blow out HC? Or even beat them by a more them by a touchdown? I am not sure you followed your own explanation of the tiebreaker. If York loses then the winner of the HC/GW will be the conference champ. If HC wins then there is no tie. If GW wins then there is a tiebreaker between GW and HC. The first tiebreaker is always head to head.
If York and GW win then it goes to a 3 way tie. That tiebreaker is point differential in matchups of tied teams. York is currently -2, GW is -2 and HC is +4. If GW wins by 1 or 2 then HC would win the conference. If GW wins by 3 then it goes to the next tiebreaker. If GW wins by 3+ then they will win the IHSA bid. York is eliminated because they lost by more than they won by.
 
@ Downers Grove North (1-4, 4-4)
York (4-1, 7-1)
Glenbard West (4-1, 7-1)
Proviso East (1-5, 1-7)
Hinsdale South (3-2, 3-5)
Willowbrook (5-0, 5-3)
Downers Grove South (4-1, 4-4)
 
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Well, here we are - the final week of the regular season. Unfortunately, this Friday night will be the final time many kids ever put on shoulder pads and a helmet. The final time they find themselves on a field of competition with their teammates. The final time they hear the cheers of the crowd from the sidelines. While they may not realize it now, in 20 years, the win/loss record will not matter.

The Gold Division has been clinched by Willowbrook, who will be the Conference Representative, firmly slated in the 7A Playoffs. With a win, DGS will get to 5 wins and almost certainly earn at At-Large birth in the 8A playoffs. Hinsdale South has an outside chance of making the playoffs with a win to get to 4-5, but would need a lot to happen elsewhere, as they currently sit with only 34 points (the projected current point cut line for 4-5 teams is 39, according to Catch-22s Wk 9 thread). PE, Morton, AT and Leyden are all assured to be turning in their equipment next week. Leyden could play spoiler on their way out, though. DGS needs to get to 5 wins, as they currently only have 33 points.

The Silver Division is much more.... fluid. HC, GW and York have all clinched playoff spots by way of 6 wins. LT, DGN and OPRF all sit at 4-4, and have paths to make the playoffs win or lose. The only school assured to complete their season this Friday night is Proviso West. While the top 3 have all clinched, the conference champion is still yet to be determined. At the least, HC is a Co-Champion. GW needs to win to be a Co-Champion. York needs to win, and for GW to win to be a Co-Champion. Just as important is claiming the conference representative spot in the playoffs, as this will give the rep school a higher seed.

Using the IHSA tie-breakers, if GW beats HC, it will come down to tie breaker 2 - Fewest total points allowed in Head to Head games between co-champions; or tie breaker 3 - Highest Point differential in Head to Head games between co-champions. As York is the only team to have played both HC and GW, they set the mark at points allowed with 37. GW gave up 12 to York, so has 24 to give; HC gave up 23, so has 14 to give. York's point differential is set at 6, GW currently sits at 2, and HC at 4. Of course, the only reason any of this will matter is if GW beats HC, and does so in overwhelming fashion. If GW wins in a close one - as recent history would suggest - York will be the conference representative.

As exciting as the HC @ GW game will be on Saturday afternoon, the Lyons @ DGN game will be just as important and drama filled. Both sit at 4-4, and both will qualify for an At-Large birth in the Playoffs - DGN likely in 7A, Lyons firmly in 8A. This is essentially a "must win" for Lyons, as they currently only have 37 points, and likely won't make it at 4-5. It's not so cut and dry for DGN, however, as they currently sit with 45 points, the most in the division. However, they would need several other games to fall their way, so for sake of argument, this is a "Win and you're in, lose and go home" scenario for both teams.

And finally, we come to OPRF, who faces York this week. Their win over DGN last week brought them to 4-4, and at 39 points, currently has them projected to be one of the few 4-5 teams to make the playoffs. An upset of York on Friday would assure them a spot, but even with at loss, they may still be practicing on Monday.

There are some games to make moves in the standings this week. This is a week where you may not be able to pick chalk and come out clean. Good luck!

Lyons Township (2-3, 4-4) @ Downers Grove North (1-4, 4-4)
Oak Park River Forest (2-3, 4-4) @ York (4-1, 7-1)
Hinsdale Central (5-0, 7-1) @ Glenbard West (4-1, 7-1)
Proviso West (0-6, 0-8) @ Proviso East (1-5, 1-7)
Addison Trail (0-5, 0-8) @ Hinsdale South (3-2, 3-5)
Willowbrook (5-0, 5-3) @ Morton (3-2, 3-5)
Downers Grove South (4-1, 4-4) @ Leyden (2-3, 3-5)
Lyons Township
York
Hinsdale Central
Proviso East
Hinsdale South
Willowbrook
Downers Grove South
 
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Why wouldn’t GW be the conference rep if they blow out HC? Or even beat them by a more them by a touchdown? I am not sure you followed your own explanation of the tiebreaker. If York loses then the winner of the HC/GW will be the conference champ. If HC wins then there is no tie. If GW wins then there is a tiebreaker between GW and HC. The first tiebreaker is always head to head.
If York and GW win then it goes to a 3 way tie. That tiebreaker is point differential in matchups of tied teams. York is currently -2, GW is -2 and HC is +4. If GW wins by 1 or 2 then HC would win the conference. If GW wins by 3 then it goes to the next tiebreaker. If GW wins by 3+ then they will win the IHSA bid. York is eliminated because they lost by more than they won by.
Yes, if OPRF and GW win, GW and HC will tie as conference champs, and GW will be the conference representative, as they will have beat the co-champ head to head. However, the 2nd tie breaker according to the IHSA website is fewest total points allowed in the head to head matchups.

York's total points allowed vs HC and GW is 37. GW gave up 12 to York, so can allow HC to score up 24 points, and still be the Conference rep with a win.

I retract my statement of needing OPRF to win, with apologies.
 
Yes, if OPRF and GW win, GW and HC will tie as conference champs, and GW will be the conference representative, as they will have beat the co-champ head to head. However, the 2nd tie breaker according to the IHSA website is fewest total points allowed in the head to head matchups.

York's total points allowed vs HC and GW is 37. GW gave up 12 to York, so can allow HC to score up 24 points, and still be the Conference rep with a win.

I retract my statement of needing OPRF to win, with apologies.
Interesting that they have lowest points allowed before differential. In most organized leagues those are flipped. I guess the dukes will root for a high scoring game with GW winning. Whatever happens all three will be in and I believe the WSC declares all 3 champs if they are all 6-1.
 
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Interesting that they have lowest points allowed before differential. In most organized leagues those are flipped. I guess the dukes will root for a high scoring game with GW winning. Whatever happens all three will be in and I believe the WSC declares all 3 champs if they are all 6-1.
That is correct, with a GW win, all 3 will be co-champs. Which is nice. But the conference representative designator is really important this year, IMO. It is the difference between an 7,8,9 seed, and facing a low 5-4 team; and a 14,15,16 seed facing a 6-3 type team, like Marist. The middle area of 8A is going to be full of good, tough games.
 
That is correct, with a GW win, all 3 will be co-champs. Which is nice. But the conference representative designator is really important this year, IMO. It is the difference between an 7,8,9 seed, and facing a low 5-4 team; and a 14,15,16 seed facing a 6-3 type team, like Marist. The middle area of 8A is going to be full of good, tough games.
But in a 3 way tie, HC will have 2 overall losses and the other two will only have 1. HC will be the lowest seed even if they are declared the IHSA league champ unless I Ann ISO’s for something.
 
I believe this is correct - in a loss, all 3 will be 5-1 in conference, and the tie breakers will determine the Conference Representative, and be seeded higher than other 8-1, non-conference reps. In this hypothetical 😬, HC would be seeded as a 7-2 team, while the other 2 will be 8-1.
 
I don’t think conference champions holds any significance with regard to seeding
Seedlings are based on record then organized in order by opponents wins then opponents defeated wins
 
I don’t think conference champions holds any significance with regard to seeding
Seedlings are based on record then organized in order by opponents wins then opponents defeated wins
All my knowledge and assumptions for how the playoff seedlings and pairings are determined come from the IHSA website https://www.ihsa.org/Sports-Activit...Information-Results?url=/data/fb/playoffs.htm

The way I comprehend the posted information is the Conference champions from conferences of 6 teams or more are seeded first. The remaining teams are then seeded by overall record. So an 8-1 non conference champion would have a higher seed than a 7-2 conference champion.
 
Yes
But an 8-1 conference champion wouldn’t necessarily be seeded ahead of an 8-1 at large team
Furthermore all 8-1 teams are seeded ahead of the 7-2 teams
 
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All my knowledge and assumptions for how the playoff seedlings and pairings are determined come from the IHSA website https://www.ihsa.org/Sports-Activit...Information-Results?url=/data/fb/playoffs.htm

The way I comprehend the posted information is the Conference champions from conferences of 6 teams or more are seeded first. The remaining teams are then seeded by overall record. So an 8-1 non conference champion would have a higher seed than a 7-2 conference champion.
Yes technically the conference champion is in the field first as a automatic qualifier. Similar to the Big Ten basketball tournament champions are automatically in the NCAA tourney and the rest have to wait 30 minutes to be announced in the field. Conference championship does not matter for seeding in IHSA. All about playoff points.
 
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LT
York (I wanted to go OPRF, but theyve been inconsistent... basketball and wrestling are king and around the corner for Huskies)
HC
PE
HS
WB
DGS
 
I’m way late with these picks and well out of the running but would have picked:

DGN
York
HC
PE
HS
WB
Leyden

Now let’s see who from the WSC can make a run! Let’s go boys!!
 
What a game! Both offenses made mistakes, and struggled today. Both defenses played tough.

I do have to ask, does GW normally appear so disorganized getting plays in? I was shocked to see them have to waste timeouts.
 
What a game! Both offenses made mistakes, and struggled today. Both defenses played tough.

I do have to ask, does GW normally appear so disorganized getting plays in? I was shocked to see them have to waste timeouts.
Yes
 
HC looks poised for a deep run, but is this the year they actually do so? They've had similar teams in the past wash out in the first or second round.

I think GW is more likely next year to go deep. Still a lot of inexperience and offense is very inconsistent.
 
I think GW is more likely next year to go deep. Still a lot of inexperience and offense is very inconsistent.
Going off what I saw yesterday, I don't think GW is poised to be better next year at all. And if LFC is correct, and the play calling is so disorganized, I don't think it'll matter what the talent is on the field.

In my assessment, what makes GW so difficult and such a good team is their offensive, power running scheme. It is so different from what nearly every other team - especially in the WSS - is doing, it makes game planning difficult. When they come out in Spread sets, as they did yesterday, that takes away their advantage. If that is the direction they are going, I believe they will go through some growing pains, and will end up switching out multiple assistant coaches.
 
Going off what I saw yesterday, I don't think GW is poised to be better next year at all. And if LFC is correct, and the play calling is so disorganized, I don't think it'll matter what the talent is on the field.

In my assessment, what makes GW so difficult and such a good team is their offensive, power running scheme. It is so different from what nearly every other team - especially in the WSS - is doing, it makes game planning difficult. When they come out in Spread sets, as they did yesterday, that takes away their advantage. If that is the direction they are going, I believe they will go through some growing pains, and will end up switching out multiple assistant coaches.
All three games between York, HC and GW could have gone either way. A play or two here or there made all the difference. HC came up with the key pick vs York and GW fumbled on the 1 yard line. Those two plays go the other way and we have a totally different outlook on these teams. York might be the best team but ended up with the worst draw. HC and GW might last longer than the Dukes based on the matchups. Or they could all be done after week 2 again.

GW tends to play better on turf than grass. Sounds stupid since their home field is grass but over the last decade they tend to lose on grass more than turf.
 
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Week 9 is in the books. HC claimed the WSS crown for back-to-back Conference titles. OPRF played an inspired final game attempting to gain a playoff birth. And Proviso West took the battle of Proviso, and got their first win of the season.

Nobody had a perfect pick sheet, as the board picked Proviso East. However, as the board was split on DGN/LT and HC/GW, there was some big movement. Our standings at the end of the regular season are below. And congrats to @Panthers1211 for being the regular season Champ who was correct 86% of the time across all 9 weeks.

As the WSC has 6 playoff participants (5 in 8A, 1 in 7A), I figure we can continue until all schools are eliminated, or win it all. Playoff records will be added to the running total, giving opportunities to still make moves. Additionally, for the season champion, we will have a "record champ" and a "percentage champ". The percentage champ is only for participants who missed no more than 3 regular season weeks, and missed no playoff weeks.

Wk 9
Lyons Township (21) @ Downers North (14)
Oak Park River Forest (33) @ York (36)
Hinsdale Central (6) @ Glenbard West (0)
Proviso West (58) @ Proviso East (34)
Addison Trail (6) @ Hinsdale South (49)
Willowbrook (58) @ Morton (18)
Downers South (28) @ Leyden (15)

1 - @Panthers1211 54-9
T2 - @brucealmighy 53-10
T2 - @RD_Watcher 53-10
T4 - @Grepos 52-11
T4 - @Dual-triple_threat 52-11
6 - @USD24 50-13
7 - @Solid Snake Pliskin 47-16
8 - @Cross Bones 46-10 (missed Wk 1)
9 - @Little Kin 43-13 (missed Wk 9)
10 - @WBWarriorWatcher 37-12 (missed Wk1 and Wk 3)
11 - @Duhawk44 38-11 (missed Wk 1 and Wk 2)
12 - @chuck998 (missed Wk 1, Wk 2, and Wk 3)
 
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