Who’s number 1?

[Cross Bones]

Your post is purportedly addressing my post in which I assert there is "about" a five point differential between class levels. An open-minded person might wonder what the basis is for such an assertion. A close-minded person would ignorantly claim the assertion was contrived out of thin air. The information I'm about to present is addressed only to the open-minded individuals.

Last year I did a small study of the 2019 season in an effort to obtain some sense of what the difference was between class levels. It was at that time merely an effort to satisfy my own curiosity. In order to control the variable related to team strength, I determined to use games only involving teams that made it to the semifinal round in 2019. In other words, as an example, I didn't think there was merit in comparing a 2-7 5A team with a 7-2 4A team.

There were nine games played during the 2019 regular season between teams that later reached the semifinal round in different classes. To my knowledge the following nine games represent the complete set of games matching the criteria set forth in the preceding sentence.

1A Moweaqua Central A&M defeated 2A Decatur St. Teresa 28-26
2A Sterling Newman Central Catholic defeated 3A Princeton 25-21
3A Williamsville defeated 1A Athens 27-12
4A Richmond-Burton defeated 3A Quincy Notre Dame 34-14
6A Chatham Glenwood defeated 5A Rochester 56-26
7A Rolling Meadows defeated 6A Deerfield 31-24
7A Mt. Carmel defeated 8A Marist 21-14
7A Nazareth defeated 8A Marist 39-29
7A Mt. Carmel defeated 8A Brother Rice 28-13

Although the game between Williamsville and Athens represented a difference of two class levels, it was treated as only a difference of one class level in my analysis.

Although the lower class levels won five of the games as compared to only four losses, the average (mean) point differential favored the larger classes by 3.78 points. The calculation follows:

Five wins by the smaller classes by 2+4+7+10+15=38 total points
Four wins by the larger classes by 15+20+30+7=72 total points
72 - 38 = 34 ; and 34 divided by 9 equals 3.78 points
So the average point differential between classes was 3.78 points

Not wanting to overstate the case in my December 1st post, I decided to move the number upward by an additional point and assert the difference was about five points. I was careful to use the word "about" and also acknowledged in my post that the number was likely to vary from year to year.

Hopefully it has been demonstrated to open-minded individuals that the number was not made up from thin air. With regard to close-minded individuals there is, of course, no hope.

Right approach as @pjjp said, but doesn't address the point at all. I think if you poll the people you are arguing against I think most of them would tell you that MC, Marist, Naz, and Rice belong in the same class. No one thinks these schools are not A) competitive with each other, and B) competitive with the largest public schools in the state. The argument being made, at least when I make it is that the class represents enrollment of public schools (which is why no enrollment modifiers are used for them). Private school enrollments have been acknowledged to not measure the same thing (hence the modifiers). Publics being the vast majority of schools in each class represent what the typical school will look like.

So "4A cannot compete with 8A" is not saying JCA can't compete with Loyola. As you've read on the boards people think the opposite, they can compete with LA and should compete with LA. It's that Rochester cannot compete with LA (we watched it on TV) and Rochester has proven to be above the rest of the 4A field year after year. It's also not saying that there aren't 8A sized schools that Rochester can't compete with. I bet they would have given Downers Grove South all they can handle. But Downers Grove South isn't in the top teams conversation. And DGS making the playoffs means there was at least 5 teams they beat of similar size so maybe Rochester beats them too. However, if you go down to whoever is the 32nd best team in 4A DGS probably treats them like Loyola treated Rochester (we'll likely never know because 8A publics don't seem to schedule 4A publics). This doesn't make Rochester a bad team it makes them 4A with 800 students.

Sorry for being long winded.

 

[Alexander32]

Who did CG's wins come against, 4 teams that made the quarter finals, 3 in 6A, and 1 in 7A, and then beat handily, a team in the semis, Lake Forest, that held their own against a top ten 8A program, Warren, and never gave up more than 18 points all year, except the game against Carmel, when half their starters were out with Covid.
You want to talk about ifs and buts with LP, if Hissong doesn''t go down with his knee in the 4th quarter, CG wins by 8-9 points. But that didn't happen, just like LP didn't beat LWE.

It seems, in the minds of some (or one?), that class distinctions are irrelevant with respect to private schools but totally controlling with respect to public schools. The Joliet Catholics and Mt. Carmels and St. Ritas of the world can beat 8A programs such as Loyola, but the Cary-Groves and East St. Louises and Prairie Ridges of the world couldn't possibly be on a par with 8A Lockport and expect to beat them in a given year.

It is almost as if Wheaton North didn't beat Brother Rice and St. Rita this year. Or, as if 6A Crete-Monee didn't beat a strong St. Ignatius team this year. Or, St. Charles North didn't beat Mt. Carmel in 2018, Lake Zurich didn't beat Mt. Carmel in 2017, and 6A Prairie Ridge didn't beat Nazareth in 2017. After all, if top Catholic schools can be expected to compete effectively with the 8A teams from Loyola and Marist, but public schools in classes lower than 8A can't possibly be expected to compete effectively with 8A teams, then when the Catholic schools drop to lower classes such as 7A and 6A they must absolutely dominate those classes. And yet, they don't. In fact, Joliet Catholic even lost to Mascoutah in the 2019 5A quarterfinals. That is the same bracket in which Rochester decisively beat St. Rita. Yet this year Rochester was 4A while St. Rita was 7A. There is far more fluidity between the classes than people generally acknowledge, even among public school teams. You correctly pointed out how 6A Lake Forest almost won the North Suburban Conference championship this year in their game against 8A Warren. Public (and private) schools from lower class levels can, and often do, beat schools with higher class designations.

We will never know which teams would win head-to-head contests between Cary-Grove, Joliet Catholic, Wheaton North and Lockport. The next best thing in determining an overall number one team in the state (for what that is worth) would be to determine which team is most deserving. Even here various cases can be made for the different teams and there is no consensus. It could be pointed out, though, that Wheaton North wasn't even number one in their own conference. Batavia was the conference champion. Lockport wasn't even the undisputed number one team in their conference, as they shared the conference championship with Lincoln-Way East (in what could be construed as a bit of a down year for Lincoln-Way East). Only Cary-Grove and Joliet Catholic were outright conference champions. I have no affiliation with either team. My view on the matter is not biased. Both teams have a case. In the end, given how easily Cary-Grove handled the regular season, given how many of the few points they did yield were scored in the fourth quarter when starters were out of the game, and given how they played against East St. Louis, my nod goes to Cary-Grove. East St. Louis beat the eventual state champion of the largest class in Missouri. They played to within 16 points of the #6 team in the nation (last I checked). But they didn't beat Cary-Grove.