What to do about the.....
- Thread starter EdgyTim
- Start date
Apparently there are no great teams this year, but several solid ones. All depends on the matchups come playoff time. We could all be eliminated the first week. Wheaton North could do some damage in 7a.
More concerned about the West Suburban Silver. Looks like GBW is the only top 30 team (maybe HC) out there and they got a huge boost from beating a Lyons who isn't top 30. Usually, IMO, the WSS is top 3 public conference.
Lockport 14 DGN 0
Lockport 0 LWC 42
Lockport 21 Brook 42 (42-0 at half running clock)
Lockport 6 LWE 49
OPRF 23 DGN 28
OPRF 21 DGS 17
DGS 10 Brook 35
OPRF 29 Simeon 28
Simeon 0 Phillips 14
Lyons 33 Sandburg 22
Sandburg 7 Brook 55
Sandburg 7 LWE 46
Lyons 35 Proviso W 20
Lyons 3 GBW 35
Lyons 31 DGN 28 (goalline stand to win)
GBW 34 MS 62
GBW 35 DGN 10
GBW 35 Lyons 3
GBW 35 AT 10
DGS 28 AT 0
I think you can get a pretty good idea of the level of the individual teams by these samples
Lockport 14 DGN 0
Lockport 0 LWC 42
Lockport 21 Brook 42 (42-0 at half running clock)
Lockport 6 LWE 49
OPRF 23 DGN 28
OPRF 21 DGS 17
DGS 10 Brook 35
OPRF 29 Simeon 28
Simeon 0 Phillips 14
Lyons 33 Sandburg 22
Sandburg 7 Brook 55
Sandburg 7 LWE 46
Lyons 35 Proviso W 20
Lyons 3 GBW 35
Lyons 31 DGN 28 (goalline stand to win)
GBW 34 MS 62
GBW 35 DGN 10
GBW 35 Lyons 3
GBW 35 AT 10
DGS 28 AT 0
I think you can get a pretty good idea of the level of the individual teams by these samples
DVC is pretty tough 1 through 7. 8th team would be .500 or better in most conferences. LWC scored 5 more points against the 7th place DVC team then they did against the number one team in the state.
I will give you the fact that OPRF is not as solid as they usually are through the first six weeks.
But DGN installed a new offense this Summer and it took a game or two to click so not sure I trust the transitive property applied to Lockport. Right now they are a solid club that could dispatch DGS next week and surprise someone in 7A.
LT isn’t a bad club but I think they could do a better job unlocking the value of Bryant. Kid has a cannon and fits the ball into small spaces really well. They will probably have a tough time on the road in Round 1 in 8A
Wish I could be at HC/GW today to get a good read on HC but their beat down of DGN looks a little better than before.
Overall I agree it’s a down year. OPRF having two losses so early let the air out of the big four.
But DGN installed a new offense this Summer and it took a game or two to click so not sure I trust the transitive property applied to Lockport. Right now they are a solid club that could dispatch DGS next week and surprise someone in 7A.
LT isn’t a bad club but I think they could do a better job unlocking the value of Bryant. Kid has a cannon and fits the ball into small spaces really well. They will probably have a tough time on the road in Round 1 in 8A
Wish I could be at HC/GW today to get a good read on HC but their beat down of DGN looks a little better than before.
Overall I agree it’s a down year. OPRF having two losses so early let the air out of the big four.
@capnbillhitters
Not the transitive property. I am not saying Team A beat team B thus... I am looking at a handful of scores and getting a general idea of their level of play. We both know there can be outliers that's why I'm trying to use 4 or 5 games.
What I see from that is that Lyons is about on par with DGN, OPRF, DGS, Simeon, Sandburg, and Lockport. Perhaps Lockport and Sandburg ran into buzzsaws against conference foes, but there is a trend there.
Not the transitive property. I am not saying Team A beat team B thus... I am looking at a handful of scores and getting a general idea of their level of play. We both know there can be outliers that's why I'm trying to use 4 or 5 games.
What I see from that is that Lyons is about on par with DGN, OPRF, DGS, Simeon, Sandburg, and Lockport. Perhaps Lockport and Sandburg ran into buzzsaws against conference foes, but there is a trend there.
I've said in many threads, week one is the worst predictor of reality for Illinois HS football teams. It is really a scrimmage that counts in the standings. @Cross Bones post was a good read but yeah that week one result smelled funny.
If week 1 is an outlier I would agree, but in this case I don't think it is. Week 2 Lockport lost to now 6-1 South Elgin 35-28. South Elgin just barely lost to Batavia 10-7.
Lockport 14 DGN 0
Lockport 28 S Elgin 35
Lockport 6 Thornton 7
Lockport 14 Andrew 17 (Andrew is 6-1)
I think we have a good read on Lockport, they can compete with average teams, but get handled by the better ones.
I really appreciate the transitive approach. It is not absolute but about the only barometer there is in high school football. Of course there are always extreme circumstanses. I posted my thought on the LWC vs WVgame on another thread, but in short....the quote above is not reliable. Weather was terrible and WV defense is week. In decent conditions...LWC put up 40+ on WV. In fairness, I think WV puts up a few more tds as well. Extenuating circumstances here.
At any rate, I still think DVC is one of toughest leagues around. As far as what to do with them this year, you have to base on this year. Not the history. Do as much "transitive" analysis as possible and give it your best guess.
Wow, I never thought about that. As a fan, I love the idea. Some of my favorite football all in one league. Logistics could get hairy but if they figured out a way to create a couple of divisions and spread out the talent of the teams very year...that would be awesome. I know some youth leagues take the lower level records and the #1 team in div A, number 2 team in div b, number 3 team in div a, number 4 team in div b....and so one. That would be great to see..on something like varsity and sophomore records. Give the best teams the best chance for playoffs. A league champ game could be fun if there were only 8 division games.
The same weather three miles away where two other DVC teams ran up over 80 points mostly in the air.
That is my meteorological approach which is almost as good as my transitive approach.
Fair enough. I have my suspicions about the reason for that. To prove I am a fair guy, before I respond I would like to investigate. What game are you talking about aND can I watch it anywhere? Cube, youtube, team site, etc.
Ah great, I have that recorded and hope to watch this weekend. Will let you know what I think after I watch it.
I agreee with you that LT and the WSS isn't performing as well as expected and the conference as a whole seems weaker compared to years past.
What you are doing is still transitive though, it's just that you are trying to applying multiple transitive properties at once and it's really confusing, at least to me. At the minimum I'd say it's a poor statistical model based on low population sizes and biases.
Not trying to be a jerk, just confused. Are you trying to compare the WSS to a single specific conference? I don't know enough about Illinois conferences but I'm not comprehending your choices. Best I can see, you are posting various scores from several different schools in several different conferences. But you aren't including all games by the teams you picked, and you aren't picking all teams from any of those conferences
The other thing is that we are comparing conferences with vastly different numbers of members, making it an apples to oranges comparison in some ways. You mentioned a numbers of teams from the Southwest Suburban Conference with 13 members vs. the West Suburban Silver with 7.
It may not be a perfect system, but the IHSAA's ranking system seems a hell of a lot less convoluted: overall record with the SOS determined by Opponents wins. Boom: simple and straightforward. Not sure where it's at after this weeks games, but 4 in the top 25 and LT at #13 isn't as bad as is being insinuated.
Rank School W-L Opponents'
Wins Classification
Enrollment
C 1 Frankfort (Lincoln-Way East) 6-0 33 2916.00
C 2 Barrington 6-0 27 3004.00
R 3 South Elgin 6-0 21 2733.00
C 4 Chicago (Marist) 6-0 21 2717.55
5 Flossmoor (Homewood-F.) 5-1 33 2724.00
6 Hinsdale (Central) 5-1 33 2766.00
7 Bolingbrook 5-1 30 3472.00
8 Park Ridge (Maine South) 5-1 29 2401.00
9 Lincolnshire (Stevenson) 5-1 29 4029.00
10 Naperville (Central) 5-1 29 2845.00
11 Huntley 5-1 28 2996.00
12 LaGrange (Lyons) 5-1 27 3981.00
13 Wilmette (Loyola Academy) 5-1 26 3377.55
14 Oswego (H.S.) 5-1 25 2729.00
15 Oswego (East) 5-1 25 2578.00
16 Glen Ellyn (Glenbard West) 5-1 25 2321.00
17 Minooka 5-1 25 2653.00
18 Glenview (Glenbrook South) 5-1 25 2972.00
19 Naperville (Neuqua Valley) 5-1 23 3698.00
20 Niles (Notre Dame) 5-1 21 2610.30
21 Chicago (Curie) 5-1 17 4846.05
22 Gurnee (Warren) 4-2 31 4158.00
23 Chicago Heights (Bloom Twp.) 4-2 28 2949.00
24 Naperville (North) 4-2 27 2740.00
25 Oak Park (O.P.-River Forest) 4-2 26 3294.00
I will try and be balanced.
The big difference is the actual field. WV is grass and was a mud bowl. NCC is turf. So the big difference is in running routes and cuttIng. Sharp routes were difficult as it was tough to make cuts on the field. Similiarly RBs making cuts were equally difficult
I agree there would have been a few more scores for both teams without the weather or if it was played in weather but on turf. As it was in the mud - WV left two sure TDs on the field ( pass into the endzone dropped and the screen at midfield dropped).
On a turf Field - yes LWC would have Run more pitch plays to the edges, but the same holds true with WV that their playbook would have been more open as well.
I would bet my house that LWC would not score 40 on WV regardless of weather or Field. They have a solid Running game but they don't have a developed enough passing game for that to happen.
As I said in my earlier post. I think LWC is a solid team that can do some damage in 7A but they would have to have a fairly developed passing game to be a big tIme threat in 7A or 8A. Also they didn't cover well on passing defense so I think in good weather good field they are very vulnerable there. I stand by my estimation that they would be 6-3 or 5-4 in the DVC. Conference games they would Be the underdog. NC, NN, WN. Question mark pickem with NV and LP. Probably favored vs WV, GBN, WWS. And would crush MV.
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Guido
Simple..yes....Actually representative of best teams in state...No.
VD21...that was my big assumption about the points and that is why I wanted to watch the game. Also, you keep making me wish we could have seen that game in good conditions, would love break down and analyze all of that.
Guess we'll never know. Athough I'd be happy to keep pondering if anyone else is game.
Simple..yes....Actually representative of best teams in state...No.
VD21...that was my big assumption about the points and that is why I wanted to watch the game. Also, you keep making me wish we could have seen that game in good conditions, would love break down and analyze all of that.
Guess we'll never know. Athough I'd be happy to keep pondering if anyone else is game.
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I am not using the transitive property at all, you may feel that way because I posted scores. The only reason I posted scores is to get a general idea of whether the game was competitive or not. Are you suggesting that the score isn't the way we judge/measure football teams? Furthermore I am not saying that since team A beat team B and team C beat team A that team C will beat team B.
What I am doing is taking all the data we have (the scores) and getting a generalized idea of their level of play. We have to start with something we are familiar with. I am familiar with Sandburg. I know Sandburg to be a decent program. So when I see a team ranked top 6 have what looks to be a competitive game with Sandburg it raises my eyebrow as Duane Johnson may raise an eyebrow. But as we know, in football, it happens. So I await more information. Game against Hinsdale S 31-7. I know something about Hinsdale S being a West Suburban Gold guy myself, and that score isn't definitive one way or the other. York score 33-8. So far nothing says top 6 to me so now I have a narrative. When we get to 35-20 against Proviso West I know this team isn't what they were advertised even if pollsters don't want to drop them for not losing. Then I actually watch the Hinsdale South and Proviso West games on YouTube and actually see why those scores were what they were.
When I do the same thing for DGS I get a larger more clear picture. And Lockport, actually my view on Lockport got a little better after looking at all the available information. To me they were just the team that was down 28 points after 6 or 7 minutes, but they competed this year with some teams. Anyways, the IHSA seeding system is in no way a ranking, it's just a system to seed teams so it's not arbitrary. LT at 12 over #13 Loyola should have been your 1st indication that it was a bad argument.
My question to you would be since you seem to be opposed to looking at scores to get a general idea of level of play, how would you base an opinion on a team you may not have seen? And if you are agreeing that the conference is down what are YOU basing it on?
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