Week 1 Games Of Note/Interest

[rocketnation]

Great matchups for the title? Of their 9 titles Only Morris, RB, and Geneseo have kept the final within one score. They have outscored opponents 337-201 in the title game.

No team in 4A challenges them in the playoffs. In all of their playoff games in seasons where they won the championship, excluding the title game, they have had a total of 2 playoff games decided by one score; 23-21 over QND in 2010 and and 48-47 over Althoff in 2016. So, in all of their title runs, including the title games, they have had a total of 5 out of 45 playoff games decided by only one score.

Rochester has won 9 titles in 13 years, 8 of those being in 4A. Yes, they should be playing up, but Derek prefers to be a big fish in a small pond. Nothing at all wrong with that, but people will always question success and why they don't petition to play up.

Playing up is fair question for debate.

However, the vast majority of title games don't meet the 1-score standard you cite in Rochester's wins. In the last three years, only 4 of the 24 title games (17%) have been decided by 7 points or less. The average margin of victory in the title games last year was 24 points, 21 in '22, and 19 in '21. Rochester's average winning margin has been 15 points.

If perennial title winners like Lena, Wilmington, Byron, and Rochester played up, you would get some different teams winning titles but there's no guarantee that the results of the championship games would be any closer.

 

[cornerrat]

Question their success? Not following that at all.

Derek prefers to be a big fish in a small pond? They joined a conference where they are the smallest team.

All last year, the potential Rochester vs IC matchup had everyone excited. Even though the matchup didn’t end up happening, we were still intrigued about the title game. Feel this is the case most years.

4a has included numerous potential title contenders over the last few years Ic, Providence, Morris, RB, SHG, JCA, St Francis.

Rochester has never been as dominate as Byron was last year and bring several returners back.

All.... Four of those teams (some call them heavy hitters respective to their enrollment) were only in 4A those two years because of the covid exemption season that the Ihsa decided upon. JCA, SHG, St. Francis and Providence were not multiplied and that dropped them into 4A. I don't see that ever happening again. A team is multipled if in the previous two year cycle they are able to win three postseason games. Not the highest of bars. As everyone knows that different look a one time "anomaly" called by many because of the ruling changed how things usually end up in that class. Food for thought if there wasn't a Catholic tax. Ratsy

 

[cornerrat]

Keep this is mind while reading the rest of the post ➡️➡️➡️➡️ Byron returns a ton from last years team.

Byron outscored their playoff opponents 57-6 and won the title game by 63pts. Rochester’s never done that. Seems like Rochester always loses a ton but reloads.

Most years Rochester has a team or two that will challenge them out of the south and a great matchup for the title. Doesn’t make sense for Rochester to play up with SHG waiting for them each year in the playoffs.

I was under the impression you could petition up during the season. Appears I’m wrong. That sounds like a dumb rule to me.

All.... The Ihsa form. Ratsy

https://www.ihsa.org/documents/forms/2023-24/2023-24%20-%202024-25%20PlayingUpRequestForm.pdf

 

[4Afan]

Playing up is fair question for debate.

However, the vast majority of title games don't meet the 1-score standard you cite in Rochester's wins. In the last three years, only 4 of the 24 title games (17%) have been decided by 7 points or less. The average margin of victory in the title games last year was 24 points, 21 in '22, and 19 in '21. Rochester's average winning margin has been 15 points.

If perennial title winners like Lena, Wilmington, Byron, and Rochester played up, you would get some different teams winning titles but there's no guarantee that the results of the championship games would be any closer.

Great points and that's why I continue to advocate for 1-32 seeding for all classes so we can have a true championship game versus equal representation from the north and south.

 

[doctor_d]

As great as Byron was last year, the Montini game was definitely in doubt and seemed like a 50/50 game. Is Montini still looking like 3A?

 

[rocketnation]

All.... Four of those teams (some call them heavy hitters respective to their enrollment) were only in 4A those two years because of the covid exemption season that the Ihsa decided upon. JCA, SHG, St. Francis and Providence were not multiplied and that dropped them into 4A. I don't see that ever happening again. A team is multipled if in the previous two year cycle they are able to win three postseason games. Not the highest of bars. As everyone knows that different look a one time "anomaly" called by many because of the ruling changed how things usually end up in that class. Food for thought if there wasn't a Catholic tax. Ratsy

Ratsy,
I know SHG has been in 4A, 5A, and 6A at different times over the last ten years and that enrollment had dropped pretty significantly before seeming to stabilize in the last year or two. How far would SHG's enrollment have to fall before that could move them into a lower class?

I seem to remember in one of the covid years that SHG nearly dropped to 3A in the playoffs but perhaps that was a one-time unique situation.

 

[EdgyTim]

As great as Byron was last year, the Montini game was definitely in doubt and seemed like a 50/50 game. Is Montini still looking like 3A?

Yes 3A for Montini

 

[4Afan]

Question their success? Not following that at all.

You're not new here. Every year come playoff time or after Rochester wins 4A there's constantly comments or threads with quotes similar to "so what they won 4A again" or "why doesn't Rochester play up and challenge themselves". That is people questioning their success because they constantly win 4A with little to no resistance.

Derek prefers to be a big fish in a small pond? They joined a conference where they are the smallest team.

When did they join the CS8? Did they have other options? While they may be the smallest school I don't see a better fit for them based on geography. However, that just furthers my point, they play in a larger conference and then drop down to 4A for the playoffs.

Would be interesting to see how successful they would be if the IHSA still used "football enrollment" when determining size for what class you would be in (last year Rochester's football enrollment would have been 1120, placing them firmly in 5A). For reference Provi, SHG, Highland, Metamora, Morris and JCA were all in the south in 5A last year. Would have proved to be a much tougher road.

All last year, the potential Rochester vs IC matchup had everyone excited. Even though the matchup didn’t end up happening, we were still intrigued about the title game. Feel this is the case most years.

4a has included numerous potential title contenders over the last few years Ic, Providence, Morris, RB, SHG, JCA, St Francis.

Huh? You went from stating something you claimed to be fact until I showed you numbers that stated otherwise and now your claim as how they play "great title games" is based on hypotheticals that never happened? I got nothin' on that one. That being said all the potential great games never materialized because the north is so much tougher to make the title game. Every year Rochester basically has a bye into the semi's in the south and as previously stated they haven't been challenged there either.

 

[4Afan]

I just don’t get the two year commitment component. Why not let them just take it one year at a time?

Can privates who are success factored only play one of their two years up a class if they don't have a good team? If you're confident in your program then play up, don't cherry pick which years you want to play up and which you don't.

 

[cornerrat]

Yes 3A for Montini

All.... Following up a solid 3A using last years 32 qualifiers as a basis. Broncos were the 16th largest team in that group with their 488.00 enrollment. Greenville came in highest at 542.00.

Of course 2025 brings a change and a different class since they will be multipled. I came across the schools 2024 enrollment being show at 538. New enrollment figures as has been mentioned are a two year average from the recent past. Montini should come in as a large 4A. But they are getting closer to 5A. If their numbers continue to slowly increase down the line (2027) they might end up in 5A. Ratsy

 

[cornerrat]

Ratsy,
I know SHG has been in 4A, 5A, and 6A at different times over the last ten years and that enrollment had dropped pretty significantly before seeming to stabilize in the last year or two. How far would SHG's enrollment have to fall before that could move them into a lower class?

I seem to remember in one of the covid years that SHG nearly dropped to 3A in the playoffs but perhaps that was a one-time unique situation.

All.... A multi point question and a good one that does not involve the Cyclones enrollment only but of course that is a major factor. Add in the two average enrollment average which skews numbers, shrinking enrollment of Illinois schools, and those bubble teams that are right on a class change.

The Ihsa class breakdown postseason past historical numbers for some reason are not up but I have enough to work with. Smaller enrollments have created a lowering class trend from years past.

SHG was SF the past two years. Although also multipled the SF is the only guiding factor so a school can't get a two bump in classes. The Cycs actual enrollment is for the present two year average 536 mutiplied to 884.40 Using last seasons 4A numbers (only as an example) which you are familiar with the largest qualifier was Geneseo at 840.50. Morris ended up if I recall corrctly the smallest 5A team at 848.00 in 2023.

SHG a short while back had an enrollment of 499. An uptick or stablilizing in enrollment recently which you mentioned but contrary to what I have reently been told in 2024 a setback again in numbers. And of course everyone deals with that stupid two year average. Dropping below 500 would put them in Class 4A in the future. New enrollment for 2025 and 2026 will keep them multiplied (SF will be gone) as one of the smallest 5A teams with a less then 50% chance of dropping into 4A as one of the largest in that class. Of course if the Cycs don't win three postseason games over two years the waiver rule comes into play and they are a lock for 4A. I wouldn't being attending any of those games having hung myself after that last previous season. Ratsy

Edit- Forgot to mention if the multiplier ended it would have a profound effect on all eight classes putting even more teams all over the board in a different class. Private and public. For many the first time.

 

[cornerrat]

Can privates who are success factored only play one of their two years up a class if they don't have a good team? If you're confident in your program then play up, don't cherry pick which years you want to play up and which you don't.

All.... SF per the Ihsa rule holds for the two year average cycle. If I understand your question. Ratsy

 

[colin2229]

You're not new here. Every year come playoff time or after Rochester wins 4A there's constantly comments or threads with quotes similar to "so what they won 4A again" or "why doesn't Rochester play up and challenge themselves". That is people questioning their success because they constantly win 4A with little to no resistance.

I’ve never seen it that way and don’t agree.

When did they join the CS8? Did they have other options? While they may be the smallest school I don't see a better fit for them based on geography. However, that just furthers my point, they play in a larger conference and then drop down to 4A for the playoffs.

“Drop down” is a 🤡 stance. You play a tough schedule so need to play up in the Playoffs? So if a large school plays small schools they get to play down?

The Huh? You went from stating something you claimed to be fact until I showed you numbers that stated otherwise and now your claim as how they play "great title games" is based on hypotheticals that never happened? I got nothin' on that one. That being said all the potential great games never materialized because the north is so much tougher to make the title game. Every year Rochester basically has a bye into the semi's in the south and as previously stated they haven't been challenged there either.

The Huh? You went from stating something you claimed to be fact until I showed you numbers that stated otherwise and now your claim as how they play "great title games" is based on hypotheticals that never happened? I got nothin' on that one. That being said all the potential great games never materialized because the north is so much tougher to make the title game. Every year Rochester basically has a bye into the semi's in the south and as previously stated they haven't been challenged there either.

Going into the season there are No hypotheticals of Byron even being remotely challenged this year for 14 games. Never the case for Rochester. There’s says SHG and a team from the north.

Not even sure why we’re talking about Rochester.

 

[cigaros]

Am I missing something here?

Are the majority of people just assuming Rochester will lose to Simeon? This makes me laugh so hard. Rochester is going to spank Simeon. Slaughterhouse. Wood shed. RC. Keep the bus running.

Now, now. Rochester is never over confident. Confident in their game plan. but never over confident in the outcome.

 

[cigaros]

All.... And the computer* says! Ratsy (*fwiw)

Massey -

Rochester 42 Simeon 14 (90%)
SHG 35 Simeon 15 (80%)
Chatham 28 Simeon 21 (62%)
Simeon 27 MacArthur 22 (57%)

I never trust those computer rankings until about week 6. But I do like what they say today.

 

[cigaros]

Plus Rochester does not travel well to Chicago. Ie Loyola.

I'd love to see Rochester play Byron in week 1 at ISU.

Interesting how the Rockets are 9-0 against teams from up North not named Loyola Academy.

 

[cigaros]

Great matchups for the title? Of their 9 titles Only Morris, RB, and Geneseo have kept the final within one score. They have outscored opponents 337-201 in the title game.

No team in 4A challenges them in the playoffs. In all of their playoff games in seasons where they won the championship, excluding the title game, they have had a total of 2 playoff games decided by one score; 23-21 over QND in 2010 and and 48-47 over Althoff in 2016. So, in all of their title runs, including the title games, they have had a total of 5 out of 45 playoff games decided by only one score.

Rochester has won 9 titles in 13 years, 8 of those being in 4A. Yes, they should be playing up, but Derek prefers to be a big fish in a small pond. Nothing at all wrong with that, but people will always question success and why they don't petition to play up.

You've heard Coach Leonard state he likes being the Big Fish in a Small Pond? Rochester was the smallest school in the CS8 until U-High joined. And continues to be the smallest boundaried school in the conference. That's 9 regular seasons games against bigger schools until the playoffs when the competition is obviously tougher. Did he say that when they went to Loyola? Did he say that when the Rockets were bumped to 5A and dominated St. Rita, usually 7A, in the 5A final? Just curious because I haven't heard this statement in the press or in the circles before.

 

[Wassup13]

You've heard Coach Leonard state he likes being the Big Fish in a Small Pond? Rochester was the smallest school in the CS8 until U-High joined. And continues to be the smallest boundaried school in the conference. That's 9 regular seasons games against bigger schools until the playoffs when the competition is obviously tougher. Did he say that when they went to Loyola? Did he say that when the Rockets were bumped to 5A and dominated St. Rita, usually 7A, in the 5A final? Just curious because I haven't heard this statement in the press or in the circles before.

Rochester got beat big by Loyola and Rochester kicked St Rita's butt.

We need a Rochester vs Naz game.

 

[cigaros]

Rochester got beat big by Loyola and Rochester kicked St Rita's butt.

We need a Rochester vs Naz game.

Frankly, I would love to see the CCL begin scheduling games downstate.

 

[corey90]

Rochester got beat big by Loyola and Rochester kicked St Rita's butt.

We need a Rochester vs Naz game.

Let’s do Rochester Vs LWE?

 

[Wittymoniker1]

When the season ends Thanksgiving weekend, imo teams should have until December 31st to petition up for the next year. If that means a two year commitment, so be it.

After this year, I have a feeling Rita will be on the 5/6a bubble, I believe. If 5a, stay there. Not sure if the staff will do it, but we'll see.

 

[4Afan]

You've heard Coach Leonard state he likes being the Big Fish in a Small Pond? Rochester was the smallest school in the CS8 until U-High joined. And continues to be the smallest boundaried school in the conference. That's 9 regular seasons games against bigger schools until the playoffs when the competition is obviously tougher. Did he say that when they went to Loyola? Did he say that when the Rockets were bumped to 5A and dominated St. Rita, usually 7A, in the 5A final? Just curious because I haven't heard this statement in the press or in the circles before.

Actions speak louder than words. Eight 4A titles in 13 years and they choose not to play up. They play bigger schools all year and then drop down for the playoffs, so what are they afraid of? Is the playoff competition in 4A actually tougher than the CS8? How would Coal City, Brees (Central), and Murphysboro (Rochesters playoff opponents last year prior to the title game) fare in the CS8? Odds are, probably average to slightly above average. So you can't say the 4A south bracket is tougher than their conference.

Yes, they won 5A once, proving they can compete so why not play up every year? I know why they don't and it's the same reason no one outside of ESL does, they prefer the easy road to a title versus being challenged because it keeps the fans, boosters, faculty, and everyone else happy. I mean why play up and have to go through Provi, JCA, Metamora, Morris, and SHG (again) in 5A south when you can play Lincoln, Coal City, Brees (Central), and Murphysboro in 4A south? If they played up last year Rochester would have been the #2 seed in the south in 5A and would have had Provi in round 1. So why do that when they can draw Lincoln in 4A?

As fans we want to see the best play the best, but if schools develop an outstanding program they will stay right where they're at until someone makes them move up because as long as they keep the trophy case stocked no one questions anything. Don't like it, but I completely understand it.

 

[Wassup13]

Actions speak louder than words. Eight 4A titles in 13 years and they choose not to play up. They play bigger schools all year and then drop down for the playoffs, so what are they afraid of? Is the playoff competition in 4A actually tougher than the CS8? How would Coal City, Brees (Central), and Murphysboro (Rochesters playoff opponents last year prior to the title game) fare in the CS8? Odds are, probably average to slightly above average. So you can't say the 4A south bracket is tougher than their conference.

Yes, they won 5A once, proving they can compete so why not play up every year? I know why they don't and it's the same reason no one outside of ESL does, they prefer the easy road to a title versus being challenged because it keeps the fans, boosters, faculty, and everyone else happy. I mean why play up and have to go through Provi, JCA, Metamora, Morris, and SHG (again) in 5A south when you can play Lincoln, Coal City, Brees (Central), and Murphysboro in 4A south? If they played up last year Rochester would have been the #2 seed in the south in 5A and would have had Provi in round 1. So why do that when they can draw Lincoln in 4A?

As fans we want to see the best play the best, but if schools develop an outstanding program they will stay right where they're at until someone makes them move up because as long as they keep the trophy case stocked no one questions anything. Don't like it, but I completely understand it.

Rochester would need 2 open games per year to schedule top flight Chicagoland teams during the regular season before playing up.

 

[SiuCubFan8]

Rochester would need 2 open games per year to schedule top flight Chicagoland teams during the regular season before playing up.

Why?

 

[cornerrat]

Actions speak louder than words. Eight 4A titles in 13 years and they choose not to play up. They play bigger schools all year and then drop down for the playoffs, so what are they afraid of? Is the playoff competition in 4A actually tougher than the CS8? How would Coal City, Brees (Central), and Murphysboro (Rochesters playoff opponents last year prior to the title game) fare in the CS8? Odds are, probably average to slightly above average. So you can't say the 4A south bracket is tougher than their conference.

Yes, they won 5A once, proving they can compete so why not play up every year? I know why they don't and it's the same reason no one outside of ESL does, they prefer the easy road to a title versus being challenged because it keeps the fans, boosters, faculty, and everyone else happy. I mean why play up and have to go through Provi, JCA, Metamora, Morris, and SHG (again) in 5A south when you can play Lincoln, Coal City, Brees (Central), and Murphysboro in 4A south? If they played up last year Rochester would have been the #2 seed in the south in 5A and would have had Provi in round 1. So why do that when they can draw Lincoln in 4A?

As fans we want to see the best play the best, but if schools develop an outstanding program they will stay right where they're at until someone makes them move up because as long as they keep the trophy case stocked no one questions anything. Don't like it, but I completely understand it.

All.... Saw with my own eyes which I and everyone (well just about everyone lol) already knew watching 4A postseason football for two years in an eight class format. For me it was like attending an SHG game when the Cyclones would be playing a school not in the upper tier of the CS8. The game is usually decided by half time and it's out to the tailgate. Varsity starters getting one series in the third quarter..... Waterloo was the only game that provided any excitement but watching that game it was only a matter a time before points and the w would come.

Two years in 4A and two finals. SHG wasn't going to beat JCA in 2021 but I was chomping at the bit to get my bucket wish win against the Hilltoppers in 2022. Unfortunately playing NLP again at their house no less in rd2 proved to be too much for JCA. Things worked out fine regardless for SHG in 2022.

But I digress . The upper tier teams in the CS8 (and some not even in that group on occasion) would punish the vast majority of the postseason 4A teams. Excluding of course 2021 and 2022 when several Catholic teams dropped into 4A because of the Ihsa ruling and changed the entire strength makeup of that class. Ratsy P.S. Like the sun setting and rising this time of the year brings out (not you) the" bandwagon Bennys", move - ins, and carpetbaggers from around this state that yap incessantly throughout the season about there respective team as well as others. Nimrods abound. 🧐

 

[4Afan]

Why?

Beat me to it.

 

[paulie23]

All.... Byron can't. That is not how it works. When a school petitions up it has to be at the beginning of the new two year enrollment average cycle. It is for two seasons as well. The Tigers could petition up with the start of the 2025-2026 season. Ratsy

who cares about enrollment? i’ve never understood this it should be about the strength of the program..
if you had 400-800 students but still had 60-70 varsity kids who cares? most 5a schools with 1000+ barley get 50 varsity kids a year

 

[Wassup13]

who cares about enrollment? i’ve never understood this it should be about the strength of the program..
if you had 400-800 students but still had 60-70 varsity kids who cares? most 5a schools with 1000+ barley get 50 varsity kids a year

Football is about linemen.

The bigger your school the likelihood you have more students with the size, strength, power and athletic ability to play lineman.

If your playing 7a and 8a schools you need 12 to 14 students to handle the lineman positions including rotations. You really don't want to have lineman playing on both sides of the ball. This will bite you in the butt in the late 3rd and 4th quarters.

 

[colin2229]

As fans we want to see the best play the best, but if schools develop an outstanding program they will stay right where they're at until someone makes them move up because as long as they keep the trophy case stocked no one questions anything. Don't like it, but I completely understand it.

They’ll stay right there until other programs get better and knock them off.

I’ll never understand why people want to punish success and make it easier on lesser programs. Makes me what to vomit.

 

[cornerrat]

They’ll stay right there until other programs get better and knock them off.

I’ll never understand why people want to punish success and make it easier on lesser programs. Makes me what to vomit.

All..... Indeed. Like the Ihsa. Ratsy

See....
Ihsa
Administrative Procedures, Guidelines, and Policies
Section 17 Classification System
Subsection B #3

 

[4Afan]

They’ll stay right there until other programs get better and knock them off.

I’ll never understand why people want to punish success and make it easier on lesser programs. Makes me what to vomit.

Is it about making it easier on lesser programs or challenging the top teir programs?

 

[paulie23]

They’ll stay right there until other programs get better and knock them off.

I’ll never understand why people want to punish success and make it easier on lesser programs. Makes me what to vomit.

screams insecure

 

[SiuCubFan8]

Football is about linemen.

The bigger your school the likelihood you have more students with the size, strength, power and athletic ability to play lineman.

If your playing 7a and 8a schools you need 12 to 14 students to handle the lineman positions including rotations. You really don't want to have lineman playing on both sides of the ball. This will bite you in the butt in the late 3rd and 4th quarters.

You need good lineman…

 

[colin2229]

Is it about making it easier on lesser programs or challenging the top teir programs?

Easier on lesser programs.

You run your program too good so you have to go play in a higher division. Sounds fair.

 

[colin2229]

screams insecure

?

 

[4Afan]

Easier on lesser programs.

You run your program too good so you have to go play in a higher division. Sounds fair.

It does sound fair. If you're far and away better than your competition you should play in a higher division where the competition is at your level.

I'm not just picking on Rochester, I'm all for success factor across the board and not just for privates.

 

[colin2229]

It does sound fair. If you're far and away better than your competition you should play in a higher division where the competition is at your level.

I'm not just picking on Rochester, I'm all for success factor across the board and not just for privates.

Well that we can agree on my friend. Either do it for all or for none. I would like to see it dissolved however.

Success factor seeks to get equal outcome and not equal opportunity.

 

[4Afan]

Well that we can agree on my friend. Either do it for all or for none. I would like to see it dissolved however.

Success factor seeks to get equal outcome and not equal opportunity.

Agree to disagree. I feel the success factor aims to put teams where they should be based on success and level of play. If a team constantly wins a state title or makes the championship game they should move up to face competition that is on their level.

 

[SiuCubFan8]

Success factor seeks to get equal outcome and not equal opportunity.

The IHSA way…

 

[Alexander32]

Student athletes learn and get better by being challenged. It is the same reason advanced placement courses exist.