Success Factor/NAZ

[colin2229]

All.... I talked with Flyer fans about this at the game last week. They have little interest playing in Class 5A which is why they petition up. Not that titles in 5A are beneath them but that is not the "Flyer way." They would like to go higher up in postseason play but of course can't because of their conference rules. Alton and Belleville (West) who are 7A size haven't made the postseason since 2018. They need to do away with that rule Quite adamant though they want a rematch with CG this year in the final. Ratsy

I respect that…

But my point is that there is an argument to be made that 5a would is more challenging that 6a.

 

[mc140]

-8a is by far the hardest class year in and year out. There is a reason only Loyola is the only one ever to petition up to 8a.

- The IHSA should have stayed with yearly changes to enrollment and multipliers. The 22-23 and 23-24 school year enrollments will dictate classes in 25-26 and 26-27. Incredibly dumb.

 

[The Ripper CGB]

DePaul Prep is going to be interesting classification wise. There actual enrollment has grown a lot and now they will be multiplied. I think they will be around the 7A/6A line.

 

[atrain97]

To throw some more information to the fire, CG could be 5A next year based on their enrollment numbers.

 

[DeanOfSelection]

An even funnier scenario.....

Since Antioch petitioned up to 6A this year they are stuck in 6A next year. What are the chances the stars align next year by the football gods and Antioch draws Naz or JCA in round 1 for the 6a playoffs

You're right, of course. The competition in 8A is outstanding. LA is LA, always a challenge. Marist has never beaten Carmel in its entire history, but I've seen Maine South run all over us. Our record against LWE is 3-0, I think. MC has played three times, winning once, in the 8A title game, a respectable showing for a school that's been factored up. What I am considering, though, is that this year's Caravan is loaded with juniors and underclassmen who are not only starting but playing well. We'll lose Jack Elliott but gain Emmett Dowling, who, under Jordan Lynch, should develop into a facsimile of his brother. Blainey Dowling, you'll remember, helped MC beat Loyola in '22, one of the best games I have ever seen. Since Loyola took state that year, it is not unreasonable to believe that, had MC played Loyola in the 8A finals, MC might have gone home with the trophy. That was an exceptionally good Carmel team, and next year's squad could be as good or better.

MC has been in the highest class 9 times. 2 titles ('88 and '12), 2 runner ups ('06, '10) and 7 of the 9 times have made it to the semi at least.

 

[refref01]

We have talked often of multipliers, success factors and playing up but do Marist and I think BR flip places with Naz, SF's and and JCA's in that I don't think either would be multiplied next year. Would be intereestign to see the route they take.

 

[Swc1919]

Haven't thought about this in the past but it really doesn't make sense for ESL to petition up. Each year 6A south brings no one to the table for them. If they were 5A they would at least traditionally get JCA, Morris and SHG. With a title game vs a great 5a north squad.

They would run through that to it’s not many teams in Illinois that would give them problems

 

[tuccs]

Guys….guys….this is ESL we are talking about let’s not forget that like MC, no one actually beats them. The difference is MC gives opponents games because they feel bad or something while ESL gets games stolen from them by all white referees taken out of the movie Remember the Titans.

In other words, ESL would run through any class any year even 9a. Just as long as CG doesn’t show up 😬

 

[jha618]

Guys….guys….this is ESL we are talking about let’s not forget that like MC, no one actually beats them. The difference is MC gives opponents games because they feel bad or something while ESL gets games stolen from them by all white referees taken out of the movie Remember the Titans.

In other words, ESL would run through any class any year even 9a. Just as long as CG doesn’t show up 😬

 

[SiuCubFan8]

Guys….guys….this is ESL we are talking about let’s not forget that like MC, no one actually beats them. The difference is MC gives opponents games because they feel bad or something while ESL gets games stolen from them by all white referees taken out of the movie Remember the Titans.

In other words, ESL would run through any class any year even 9a. Just as long as CG doesn’t show up 😬

You should stick to commenting about how SF is going to beat naz by 3 tds...geez.

 

[tuccs]

You should stick to commenting about how SF is going to beat naz by 3 tds...geez.

I hope you’re right. With the cold weather I’m thinking it might be 3tds and an fg that’s even worse😬

 

[HSFootballfan_007]

Those schools are never gonna petition to play up even though they are playing the wrong talent level in 5A

 

[4Afan]

Those schools are never gonna petition to play up even though they are playing the wrong talent level in 5A

They won't need to petition up they'll be successful factored up.

Question for Naz guys. What is the enrollment like at Naz? Has it increased recently? With next year being the start of a new 2 year cycle for classification plus success factor will Naz be 6A or 7A next year? Their enrollment is listed at 1180 and the largest 5A team is 1272 so they're close to the top of 5A currently.

 

[tuccs]

I think the verbiage is all centered around the highest class in which you succeed. So IF one of the biggest upsets in history takes place on Saturday and Naz knocks off Franny to get to the title that would be 3 in 5a bumping them up to 6a. Back when they won their first two in back to back years then two years later were runner ups they had played in the 6a title game which bumped them up so they could win the 7a trophy and another runner up in 7a the following year. Short story long I think Naz would end up 6a whether “naturally” (multiplied) or SF’d

 

[4Afan]

I think the verbiage is all centered around the highest class in which you succeed. So IF one of the biggest upsets in history takes place on Saturday and Naz knocks off Franny to get to the title that would be 3 in 5a bumping them up to 6a. Back when they won their first two in back to back years then two years later were runner ups they had played in the 6a title game which bumped them up so they could win the 7a trophy and another runner up in 7a the following year. Short story long I think Naz would end up 6a whether “naturally” (multiplied) or SF’d

Yeah, wasn't looking for sandbagging for an actual question. Has Naz's enrollment grown since the last 2 year cycle? Would their multiplier put them in 6A regardless of success factor next year? Meaning success factor puts them in 7A?

 

[Snetsrak61]

Yeah, wasn't looking for sandbagging for an actual question. Has Naz's enrollment grown since the last 2 year cycle? Would their multiplier put them in 6A regardless of success factor next year? Meaning success factor puts them in 7A?

I believe the success factor would put them in 6A, even if they were a natural 6A. Could be wrong.

As to where there enrollment stands, I don't know. They're generally pretty strapped for space though, so I doubt they're gonna push towards 6A naturally.

 

[4Afan]

I believe the success factor would put them in 6A, even if they were a natural 6A. Could be wrong.

As to where there enrollment stands, I don't know. They're generally pretty strapped for space though, so I doubt they're gonna push towards 6A naturally.

Thank you.

Was their enrollment that much higher in '18 and '19 when they were bumped up to 7A? Not starting anything, honestly asking. Seems like a similar situation unless their actual enrollment has dropped recently, which wouldn't be unheard of for a private school these days.

 

[Maj2023]

Success factor only applies to private schools.

ESL already is playing up. Actually they wanted. To go higher than 6a (7 or 8) but there conference would not let them

 

[4Afan]

ESL already is playing up. Actually they wanted. To go higher than 6a (7 or 8) but there conference would not let them

Yeah, we know. Welcome to the conversation.

 

[godfthr53]

Thank you.

Was their enrollment that much higher in '18 and '19 when they were bumped up to 7A? Not starting anything, honestly asking. Seems like a similar situation unless their actual enrollment has dropped recently, which wouldn't be unheard of for a private school these days.

18 and 19 had different rules. Which bumped them up 2 classes. The rules back then were a 4 year rolling Cycle.

 

[4Afan]

18 and 19 had different rules. Which bumped them up 2 classes. The rules back then were a 4 year rolling Cycle.

Was it? When did they go to a 2 year cycle for enrollment?

 

[tuccs]

Yeah, wasn't looking for sandbagging for an actual question. Has Naz's enrollment grown since the last 2 year cycle? Would their multiplier put them in 6A regardless of success factor next year? Meaning success factor puts them in 7A?

I answered that pretty clear as day the same way everyone else has answered it. I believe the success factor doesn’t look at enrollment but rather the class in which you competed for a state title in a 2 year window. Should Naz “naturally” fit into 6a next year there would be no need to SF them as they will be in a higher class than the one in which they were having success.

 

[4Afan]

I answered that pretty clear as day the same way everyone else has answered it. I believe the success factor doesn’t look at enrollment but rather the class in which you competed for a state title in a 2 year window. Should Naz “naturally” fit into 6a next year there would be no need to SF them as they will be in a higher class than the one in which they were having success.

Honestly, is that how it works? If their enrollment numbers rise and they're naturally 6A then the success factor goes away?

As it stands now, if they win Saturday they would be success factored up to 6A next year, but if their enrollment has increased over the past 2 years and they would be multiplied to 6A based on enrollment, so wouldn't the success factor place them in 7A?

 

[godfthr53]

Honestly, is that how it works? If their enrollment numbers rise and they're naturally 6A then the success factor goes away?

As it stands now, if they win Saturday they would be success factored up to 6A next year, but if their enrollment has increased over the past 2 years and they would be multiplied to 6A based on enrollment, so wouldn't the success factor place them in 7A?

Wow. Read the rule and the thread.

 

[tuccs]

Yeah I’m pretty sure that’s how it works one more real life example and so you don’t accuse me of sandbagging in this one I’ll pick one that isn’t Naz who in my opinion is at the very least a 4 score home dog tomorrow like I’m talking 3 TDs and a FG type of blowout. Anyway….if you look at this year’s SHG team I believe they are being SF’d to 5a (up from 4a title) BUT SHG having already been punished for being a private school with a multiplier has an enrollment of 884 putting it in 5a naturally therefore no need to double punish them they are already being forced to play bigger schools

 

[4Afan]

Wow. Read the rule and the thread.

That's why I'm asking, enlighten me.

So the the success factor supercedes the multiplier? A win Saturday kicks in the success factor, making Naz 6A next year, I get that. Should Naz's multiplied enrollment next year place them in 6A naturally would they not be success factored up to 7A?

 

[cornerrat]

All.... The language on the SF factor states a school can only be bumped up ONE class. It didn't happen with SHG (and could of) but that multiplied enrollment of 884 was hovering close to Class 4A. It wouldn't of mattered though if when the qualifiers were announced that number fell into 4A. The SF penalty put them into 5A for the two seasons.

So where it could get interesting and confusing would be the following scenario. If private school X has met the SF rule playing class 5A. But said schools enrollment has exploded when the new two year enrollment average comes out. Multiplied that new number puts them into class 7A. I couldn't imagine this ever happening with declining enrollment of Catholic schools everywhere. Ratsy

 

[4Afan]

All.... The language on the SF factor states a school can only be bumped up ONE class. It didn't happen with SHG (and could of) but that multiplied enrollment of 884 was hovering close to Class 4A. It wouldn't of mattered though if when the qualifiers were announced that number fell into 4A. The SF penalty put them into 5A for the two seasons.

So where it could get interesting and confusing would be the following scenario. If private school X has met the SF rule playing class 5A. But said schools enrollment has exploded when the new two year enrollment average comes out. Multiplied that new number puts them into class 7A. I couldn't imagine this ever happening with declining enrollment of Catholic schools everywhere. Ratsy

Kind of what I was getting at with Naz. I was more asking about their enrollment than anything and should their enrollment push them to 6A would success factor make them 7A. Kind of a chicken or the egg scenario with whether the success factor or the multiplier comes first. All a moot point if their enrollment has remained relatively the same.

 

[jocas1259]

Kind of what I was getting at with Naz. I was more asking about their enrollment than anything and should their enrollment push them to 6A would success factor make them 7A. Kind of a chicken or the egg scenario with whether the success factor or the multiplier comes first. All a moot point if their enrollment has remained relatively the same.

I believe enrollment is just under 750

 

[Irish LB]

Kind of what I was getting at with Naz. I was more asking about their enrollment than anything and should their enrollment push them to 6A would success factor make them 7A. Kind of a chicken or the egg scenario with whether the success factor or the multiplier comes first. All a moot point if their enrollment has remained relatively the same.

I think Naz has naturally fallen in 6a one or two times in history. Naz’s enrollment fluctuates from 715-780. I believe right around 780 is absolute max capacity and they will not grow larger than that. So yes the enrollment could dip and grow a little but we are talking about 50 students or so. Naz will mostly have a multiplied enrollment toward the high end of 5a with the outside chance of falling in 6a in the years where an unusual amount of smaller schools qualify.

 

[4Afan]

I believe enrollment is just under 750

Gotcha and multiplied this year is 1180. What has the number been the last two years? Meaning what will their multiplied number look like next year.

 

[4Afan]

I think Naz has naturally fallen in 6a one or two times in history. Naz’s enrollment fluctuates from 715-780. I believe right around 780 is absolute max capacity and they will not grow larger than that. So yes the enrollment could dip and grow a little but we are talking about 50 students or so. Naz will mostly have a multiplied enrollment toward the high end of 5a with the outside chance of falling in 6a in the years where an unusual amount of smaller schools qualify.

Thank you. That's all I was originally asking for.

 

[Snetsrak61]

Thank you. That's all I was originally asking for.

I don't know this for sure, but I'm guessing that 750+ max is something they just aren't interested in. As far as I know they are still turning away students. I can only imagine they felt 750+ wasn't conducive to the actual facilities even if you could cram them in. Seems like they're more comfortable at that 720-730 range based on the size and facilities they have.

So yea enrollment is down from their high but I don't beleive it's the typical "declining catholic school enrollment" problem at all.

 

[Snetsrak61]

Here is a useful link for more specifics on the actual rule (links to a pff)

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.ihsa.org/data/school/2019-21%2520cycle/New%2520Classification%2520Policy%2520explainer.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiUwq_ZlvCJAxUtjIkEHYEpNCgQFnoECBQQBg&usg=AOvVaw1k2BQj4oFEXPYOl0g-jvEF

What has to happen for a sport or activity program at a non-boundaried school to be subject to the success factor . 1 The success factor will be applied to a program if it wins a state tournament trophy in both years of the two-year window (2017-18 and 2018-19). The resulting classification will be one class above the lowest classification in which a trophy was won. Thus if a program won one trophy in Class 2A and one in Class 3A, the team would be placed in Class 3A during the next classification cycle. The success factor usually raises a program's classification. But exceptions can also occur when a program is already competing in the highest class, or when the school's enrollment has increased to the point where it would be placed in a higher class regardless of the success factor.

Sorry for crappy formatting of the quote - I'm on my phone.

 

[Alexander32]

I mean the SF is dumb in any iteration - don't get me wrong - but it's also super dumb that it's measured in fixed calendar year periods instead of rolling. What's the justification?

I was not part of the process and therefore do not have an insider's insight. Nevertheless, the following unofficial explanation, which is solely the product of my mind, might be the justification.

I think the success factor was last modified at the same time football districts were approved. The districts were designed to work in fixed two-year periods of time so each school would have the opportunity to host every other district member. They would host a district member in one year, and then play that district member on the road in the other year. That could not be done if a district member were moved to a different class level based on a rolling success factor. Consequently, in order to align the success factor with the approved district plan, the success factor needed to be based on the same two-year fixed period as the districts were based on.

When the district plan was subsequently voted out, they could have and probably should have gone back to the former success factor, but they didn't. It would have required a separate vote because the success factor was not a direct part of the district plan.

That seems to be the most likely explanation.

 

[Kevin JCHS 81]

Sorry all the posts above were just making me dizzy and my understanding of the Success Factor (SF) has decreased, the more I read.

So, if JCA beats Morris the SF will kick in for JCA with 2 trophies. ( I'm fairly sure that's correct.)
BUT
What if JCA's enrollment puts them in the 4A high side next year? Would the SF only drive them up to 5A? Or 6A, 2 classes?

Also, I'm kind of still sleepy from my nap.

 

[tuccs]

6A for JCA because JCA won trophies in 5A and the SF states that you are bumped up 1 class from the lowest class in which you win a trophy

 

[DeanOfSelection]

6A for JCA because JCA won trophies in 5A and the SF states that you are bumped up 1 class from the lowest class in which you win a trophy

correct, JCA will be lower 6A with Crete and Flyer.

 

[cornerrat]

Sorry all the posts above were just making me dizzy and my understanding of the Success Factor (SF) has decreased, the more I read.

So, if JCA beats Morris the SF will kick in for JCA with 2 trophies. ( I'm fairly sure that's correct.)
BUT
What if JCA's enrollment puts them in the 4A high side next year? Would the SF only drive them up to 5A? Or 6A, 2 classes?

Also, I'm kind of still sleepy from my nap.

All.... You happened to miss my post in this thread and I referenced that subject. If the Hilltoppers make the final again and next year their new two year enrollment average ( multiplied) would happen when postseason qualifiers are announced fall into class 4A the SF is still in effect. One bump up in class. So 6A. Ratsy

 

[Snetsrak61]

I was not part of the process and therefore do not have an insider's insight. Nevertheless, the following unofficial explanation, which is solely the product of my mind, might be the justification.

I think the success factor was last modified at the same time football districts were approved. The districts were designed to work in fixed two-year periods of time so each school would have the opportunity to host every other district member. They would host a district member in one year, and then play that district member on the road in the other year. That could not be done if a district member were moved to a different class level based on a rolling success factor. Consequently, in order to align the success factor with the approved district plan, the success factor needed to be based on the same two-year fixed period as the districts were based on.

When the district plan was subsequently voted out, they could have and probably should have gone back to the former success factor, but they didn't. It would have required a separate vote because the success factor was not a direct part of the district plan.

That seems to be the most likely explanation.

Thats actually a logical theory (I mean as logical as can be given the context of the SF rule AND districts)