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Playoff Bracket Projections- Including projected Week 9 results & regional assigments

Just disagree with a week 9 projection. Guess we'll find out tomorrow
I was right. Projection had Barrington at 8-1 and Palatine at 7-2 ...OOPS! By my calculation Palatine comes in at #5 in 8A. Tied w/8-1 Marist at 43 playoff points, but Palatine has smaller classification enrollment,
 
I was right. Projection had Barrington at 8-1 and Palatine at 7-2 ...OOPS! By my calculation Palatine comes in at #5 in 8A. Tied w/8-1 Marist at 43 playoff points, but Palatine has smaller classification enrollment,
Palatine has 46 points. Marist 44. Marist is tied with Naperville at 44.
 
True. But they took Maine South to the wire, and had they not fumbled the go-ahead TD QB Sneak on the 1 yard line, they would've beat them. That MS team won the State Title.
They didn't fumble that sneak. He'd broken the plain already - MS should have never advanced.
 
31 open spots. 60 4-4 teams headed into Week 9. Of those, per Massey, 26 are predicted to win, 34 to lose. This would then mean 5 4-5 teams get in.

4-4 teams with Massey predicted probability of winning week 9 below. If anything looks wildly off base, I can check to see if something wrong in source data.

Bronzeville
0%​
Collins
0%​
Reavis
0%​
N Boone
1%​
Rich Cent
1%​
East Leyden
1%​
Stillman Val
2%​
East Peoria
2%​
Staunton - LOSERS
3%​
Grayslake Cent
4%​
Herscher
5%​
Immaculate Concept
5%​
Riverside-Brookfield
7%​
Centennial
9%​
Goode STEM
10%​
Mundelein
10%​
Oswego (East)
13%​
Lincoln
15%​
Hinsdale
15%​
Providence Cath
16%​
Clinton
20%​
Morton
21%​
Collinsville - they won.
25%​
Robinson
28%​
Eisenhower-BI
28%​
Marengo
29%​
Genoa-Kingston
31%​
Effingham - LOSERS
31%​
Freeport
32%​
Clifton Cent
37%​
Tinley Park
40%​
Amundsen
43%​
Oregon
44%​
Lake Zurich
49%​
Deerfield
54%​
Prairie Cent
55%​
Homewood-Flossmoor
60%​
Geneseo-Darnall
62%​
Argo
63%​
Deer Creek
67%​
Kewanee
76%​
Westinghouse
76%​
Frankfort
78%​
Notre Dame-Peoria
86%​
Bulls Col Prep
87%​
Wheaton-North
92%​
Curie
93%​
Marmion Acad
94%​
Plainfield North
94%​
Wheaton-W'ville S
95%​
Red Bud - they won.
96%​
Waubonsie Val
96%​
Hope Acad
99%​
Mt Carmel
99%​
Carlinville - they won.
99%​
Glenbrook South
99%​
Brown Co
100%​
Taylorville - they won.
100%​
Joliet West
100%​
Niles West
100%​
 
I know there are a few Saturday games, and I’m sure you're a busy man, but can you give us something?
If this is for me... I got a kid sleeping in the room where my computer is.... Hoping he wakes up soon so I can get to it. I know the 8A will have several changes after last night
 
Very minimal quality control done, but this is what I have:
8A7A6A5A
1​
Lincoln-Way East (9-0)
1​
Young (9-0)
1​
Cary-Grove (9-0)
1​
Sycamore (9-0)
32​
Joliet West (5-4)
32​
Argo (5-4)
16​
Senn (5-4)
16​
Comer Prep (5-4)
16​
Downers Grove-S (7-2)
16​
Addison Trail (7-2)
8​
Grayslake North (7-2)
8​
Prosser (6-3)
17​
Taft (7-2)
17​
Moline (7-2)
9​
Kennedy (7-2)
9​
Westinghouse (5-4)
8​
Naperville Cent (8-1)
8​
Lincoln Park (8-1)
5​
Wauconda (7-2)
5​
Woodstock North (7-2)
25​
Sandburg (5-4)
25​
Hoffman Estates (6-3)
12​
Fenton (6-3)
12​
Sterling (5-4)
9​
Downers Grove-N (8-1)
9​
Maine West (8-1)
4​
Burlington Cent (7-2)
4​
Prairie Ridge (7-2)
24​
Edwardsville (6-3)
24​
Lincoln-Way Cent (6-3)
13​
Kaneland (5-4)
13​
Goode STEM (5-4)
4​
Aurora-West (9-0)
4​
Libertyville (8-1)
3​
Belvidere North (8-1)
3​
Rochelle (8-1)
29​
Glenbrook South (5-4)
29​
Wheaton-W'ville S (5-4)
14​
Amundsen (5-4)
14​
Payton Prep (5-4)
13​
Loyola Acad (7-2)
13​
Jacobs (7-2)
6​
Lake Forest (7-2)
6​
St Francis (6-3)
20​
Maine South (6-3)
20​
Lincoln Way West (6-3)
11​
Glenbard South (6-3)
11​
Freeport (5-4)
5​
Marist (8-1)
5​
Batavia (8-1)
7​
Antioch (7-2)
7​
St Laurence (6-3)
28​
Warren Twp (5-4)
28​
W Chicago (6-3)
10​
Mather (6-3)
10​
Perspectives Charter (5-4)
12​
Barrington (7-2)
12​
Fenwick (7-2)
2​
Geneva (8-1)
2​
Nazareth Acad (8-1)
21​
South Elgin (6-3)
21​
Brother Rice (6-3)
15​
Deerfield (5-4)
15​
Marmion Acad (5-4)
2​
Lyons (9-0)
2​
Quincy (9-0)
1​
Richards-OL (8-1)
1​
Morgan Park (8-1)
31​
Waubonsie Val (5-4)
31​
Rolling Meadows (5-4)
16​
Springfield (5-4)
16​
Geneseo-Darnall (5-4)
15​
York (7-2)
15​
Bradley-Bourbonnais (7-2)
8​
Simeon (7-2)
8​
Centralia (6-3)
18​
Minooka (7-2)
18​
Shepard (7-2)
9​
Glenwood (7-2)
9​
Metamora (6-3)
7​
Palatine (8-1)
7​
Hononegah (8-1)
5​
St Rita (7-2)
5​
Highland (6-3)
26​
Curie (5-4)
26​
Grant (6-3)
12​
Crete Monee (6-3)
12​
Morris (5-4)
10​
Fremd (8-1)
10​
Pekin (7-2)
4​
Bloomington (7-2)
4​
Triad (7-2)
23​
Andrew (6-3)
23​
Guilford (6-3)
13​
Oak Forest (6-3)
13​
Hillcrest (5-4)
3​
Oswego (9-0)
3​
St Charles-North (8-1)
3​
East St Louis (8-1)
3​
Peoria (7-2)
30​
Huntley (5-4)
30​
Collinsville (5-4)
14​
Calumet City-TFN (6-3)
14​
Sacred Ht-Griffin (5-4)
14​
Naperville-North (7-2)
14​
Harlem (7-2)
6​
Washington (7-2)
6​
Joliet Cath (6-3)
19​
Plainfield South (7-2)
19​
Chi-Mt Carmel (6-3)
11​
Benet Acad (6-3)
11​
Marion (6-3)
6​
Glenbard East (8-1)
6​
Normal (8-1)
7​
Normal-Comm W (7-2)
7​
Corliss (6-3)
27​
Schaumburg (5-4)
27​
Willowbrook (6-3)
10​
Lemont (6-3)
10​
Jacksonville (6-3)
11​
Stevenson (8-1)
11​
Prospect (7-2)
2​
Kankakee (8-1)
2​
Mahomet-Seymour (7-2)
22​
Belleville-East (6-3)
22​
Arlington Hts-Hersey (6-3)
15​
Dunlap (6-3)
15​
Tinley Park (5-4)
 
Updated Francis/Naz records & Rita up to 7A. Keep bringing any errors you see!

8A7A6A5A
1​
Lincoln-Way East (9-0)
1​
Young (9-0)
1​
Cary-Grove (9-0)
1​
Sycamore (9-0)
32​
Joliet West (5-4)
32​
Argo (5-4)
16​
Senn (5-4)
16​
Comer Prep (5-4)
16​
Downers Grove-S (7-2)
16​
Bradley-Bourbonnais (7-2)
8​
Grayslake North (7-2)
8​
Prosser (6-3)
17​
Taft (7-2)
17​
Addison Trail (7-2)
9​
Mather (6-3)
9​
Westinghouse (5-4)
8​
Naperville Cent (8-1)
8​
Lincoln Park (8-1)
5​
Wauconda (7-2)
5​
Prairie Ridge (7-2)
25​
Sandburg (5-4)
25​
Lincoln-Way Cent (6-3)
12​
Fenton (6-3)
12​
Sterling (5-4)
9​
Downers Grove-N (8-1)
9​
Maine West (8-1)
4​
Burlington Cent (7-2)
4​
St Francis (7-2)
24​
Edwardsville (6-3)
24​
Guilford (6-3)
13​
Kaneland (5-4)
13​
Goode STEM (5-4)
4​
Aurora-West (9-0)
4​
Libertyville (8-1)
3​
Belvidere North (8-1)
3​
Nazareth Acad (7-2)
29​
Glenbrook South (5-4)
29​
Wheaton-W'ville S (5-4)
14​
Amundsen (5-4)
14​
Payton Prep (5-4)
13​
Loyola Acad (7-2)
13​
Fenwick (7-2)
6​
Lake Forest (7-2)
6​
Woodstock North (7-2)
20​
Maine South (6-3)
20​
Chi-Mt Carmel (6-3)
11​
Glenbard South (6-3)
11​
Freeport (5-4)
5​
Marist (8-1)
5​
Batavia (8-1)
7​
Antioch (7-2)
7​
St Laurence (6-3)
28​
Warren Twp (5-4)
28​
W Chicago (6-3)
10​
Grant (6-3)
10​
Perspectives Charter (5-4)
12​
Barrington (7-2)
12​
Prospect (7-2)
2​
Geneva (8-1)
2​
Rochelle (8-1)
21​
South Elgin (6-3)
21​
Lincoln Way West (6-3)
15​
Deerfield (5-4)
15​
Marmion Acad (5-4)
2​
Lyons (9-0)
2​
Quincy (9-0)
1​
Richards-OL (8-1)
1​
Morgan Park (8-1)
31​
Waubonsie Val (5-4)
31​
Rolling Meadows (5-4)
16​
Springfield (5-4)
16​
Geneseo-Darnall (5-4)
15​
York (7-2)
15​
Harlem (7-2)
8​
Glenwood (7-2)
8​
Centralia (6-3)
18​
Minooka (7-2)
18​
Moline (7-2)
9​
Kennedy (7-2)
9​
Metamora (6-3)
7​
Palatine (8-1)
7​
Hononegah (8-1)
5​
Washington (7-2)
5​
Highland (6-3)
26​
Curie (5-4)
26​
Hoffman Estates (6-3)
12​
Crete Monee (6-3)
12​
Morris (5-4)
10​
Fremd (8-1)
10​
St Rita (7-2)
4​
Bloomington (7-2)
4​
Triad (7-2)
23​
Andrew (6-3)
23​
Arlington Hts-Hersey (6-3)
13​
Oak Forest (6-3)
13​
Hillcrest (5-4)
3​
Oswego (9-0)
3​
St Charles-North (8-1)
3​
East St Louis (8-1)
3​
Peoria (7-2)
30​
Huntley (5-4)
30​
Collinsville (5-4)
14​
Calumet City-TFN (6-3)
14​
Sacred Ht-Griffin (5-4)
14​
Naperville-North (7-2)
14​
Jacobs (7-2)
6​
Normal-Comm W (7-2)
6​
Joliet Cath (6-3)
19​
Plainfield South (7-2)
19​
Shepard (7-2)
11​
Benet Acad (6-3)
11​
Marion (6-3)
6​
Glenbard East (8-1)
6​
Normal (8-1)
7​
Simeon (7-2)
7​
Corliss (6-3)
27​
Schaumburg (5-4)
27​
Willowbrook (6-3)
10​
Lemont (6-3)
10​
Jacksonville (6-3)
11​
Stevenson (8-1)
11​
Pekin (7-2)
2​
Kankakee (8-1)
2​
Mahomet-Seymour (7-2)
22​
Belleville-East (6-3)
22​
Brother Rice (6-3)
15​
Dunlap (6-3)
15​
Tinley Park (5-4)
 
Triad loss really shookup the bottom half of 5A. Centralia lowest enrollment of class @ 851.5
 
I know that. I meant what can happen today specifically to move the lines. What games outcomes could move Morris down.

Morris at highland would be a fun game I think. With a possible rematch at triad looming in round 2.
 
I know that. I meant what can happen today specifically to move the lines. What games outcomes could move Morris down.

Morris at highland would be a fun game I think. With a possible rematch at triad looming in round 2.
The teams below are all 4-4, play today, are all favored, and all larger than Morris. So if they all win that pushes Morris down. I have them as the smallest team in 5A out of 255 qualifiers so if one 4-5 team gets in that is larger than Morris that may make them the largest 4A team. All that being said, bank on them being 5A.

Chicago (Westinghouse College Prep)
Chicago (Perspectives/Leadership) [Coop]
Aurora (Marmion Academy)
Chicago (Noble/Bulls)

IF, and that's a big if, Morris were to play and beat Highland the Triad game would be at Morris.
 
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128 playoff qualifiers that have a larger enrollment than 848. Not that it matters this year.
All their losses were to ranked teams...Sycamore, Rochelle, Peoria and Byron Center.....gave up a ton of points in those losses. They did beat Coal City a ranked 4A team.
If they go 4A they might surprise someone.
I did see a key player was back last night for Morris.
 
MaxPreps already shows Hersey at Rita for first round when you go to their schedules. Man that is a tough first round match up
 
All their losses were to ranked teams...Sycamore, Rochelle, Peoria and Byron Center.....gave up a ton of points in those losses. They did beat Coal City a ranked 4A team.
If they go 4A they might surprise someone.
I did see a key player was back last night for Morris.
So, in other words, they lost to any good team they played, with the exception of Coal City. 4A would depend on the draw, but not even going to dive into that because it's fairly likely Morris will again be the smallest 5A school.
 
I saw there schedule, and thought the same thing. Highland and Morris have a common opponent this year in Rochelle and both loss by ~ 3 TDs.

Highland is also battle tested. Losses to Rochelle (8-1), Breese Central (9-0), and Waterloo (7-1).
 
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‘Lake Zurich would make it at 4-5 in 6A & Willowbrook moves up from 6A to 7A’

Interested to know how LZ makes it at (4-5)?

These (see below) are the potential teams ahead of them - based on current playoff points - and LZ isn’t even on this list. They (LZ) currently sit at 41 playoff points and they’ll have to leapfrog 2/3rd’s of these potential qualifiers ahead of them. Won’t happen IMO.

Teams (15 total) stack-ranked by current total playoff points. These would be potential first-in (4-5) qualifiers:

(48) St. Ignatius (3-5)
(47) Chicago Kenwood (3-5)
(47) Chicago Lane (3-5)
(46) Carmel Catholic (3-5)
(46) Wheaton Warrenville South (4-4)
(45) Glenbard West (3-5)
(45) Lockport (3-5)
(44) Chicago Curie (4-4)
(44) Chicago Phillips (3-5)
(44) Chicago Westinghouse (4-4)
(44) Oswego East (4-4)
(43) Chicago Hope Academy (4-4)
(43) Collinsville (4-4)
(43) IC Catholic (4-4)
(43) Plainfield North (4-4)

Can’t predict the exact outcomes of these teams wk9 match-ups, but I’d bet 5-6 listed above ‘get in’, especially before Lake Zurich.
The reason why a poster thought Lake Zurich would get into the 6a field with a 4-5 record is because of the ihsa website’s playoff outlook which for better or mostly worse is available for all to see.
After 8 games it had lake Zurich listed among 6 other teams at 4-4 in the 6a division with all seven clubs in contention for playoff spots 29 30 31 and 32 in 6a.
Many posters Know that there are no schools in any class until the 256 qualifying teams are determined and then teams are put into classes and that the ihsa website list is just a general guideline not to be believed other than the giant schools like Stevenson and Warren that are always going to be 8A and tiny schools that always will be 1a.
But there are fans of schools who don’t understand that and think that schools are put into classes before the season starts and thus the top 32 schools in the ihsa playoff outlook in each class are playoff bound.
Hence, for the lake Zurich fan looking at the ihsa playoff outlook and knowing that many of the 4-4 teams listed in the 6a outlook along with lake Zurich lost on Friday assumed that LZ was In the 6a field.
And of course, they won’t be when pairings are announced later today.
 
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So, in other words, they lost to any good team they played, with the exception of Coal City. 4A would depend on the draw, but not even going to dive into that because it's fairly likely Morris will again be the smallest 5A school.
That's why I mentioned they gave up a ton of points. If the games had been closer I'd have a reason to be a little optimistic. Not so much this year.
 
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Updated Francis/Naz records & Rita up to 7A. Keep bringing any errors you see!

8A7A6A5A
1​
Lincoln-Way East (9-0)
1​
Young (9-0)
1​
Cary-Grove (9-0)
1​
Sycamore (9-0)
32​
Joliet West (5-4)
32​
Argo (5-4)
16​
Senn (5-4)
16​
Comer Prep (5-4)
16​
Downers Grove-S (7-2)
16​
Bradley-Bourbonnais (7-2)
8​
Grayslake North (7-2)
8​
Prosser (6-3)
17​
Taft (7-2)
17​
Addison Trail (7-2)
9​
Mather (6-3)
9​
Westinghouse (5-4)
8​
Naperville Cent (8-1)
8​
Lincoln Park (8-1)
5​
Wauconda (7-2)
5​
Prairie Ridge (7-2)
25​
Sandburg (5-4)
25​
Lincoln-Way Cent (6-3)
12​
Fenton (6-3)
12​
Sterling (5-4)
9​
Downers Grove-N (8-1)
9​
Maine West (8-1)
4​
Burlington Cent (7-2)
4​
St Francis (7-2)
24​
Edwardsville (6-3)
24​
Guilford (6-3)
13​
Kaneland (5-4)
13​
Goode STEM (5-4)
4​
Aurora-West (9-0)
4​
Libertyville (8-1)
3​
Belvidere North (8-1)
3​
Nazareth Acad (7-2)
29​
Glenbrook South (5-4)
29​
Wheaton-W'ville S (5-4)
14​
Amundsen (5-4)
14​
Payton Prep (5-4)
13​
Loyola Acad (7-2)
13​
Fenwick (7-2)
6​
Lake Forest (7-2)
6​
Woodstock North (7-2)
20​
Maine South (6-3)
20​
Chi-Mt Carmel (6-3)
11​
Glenbard South (6-3)
11​
Freeport (5-4)
5​
Marist (8-1)
5​
Batavia (8-1)
7​
Antioch (7-2)
7​
St Laurence (6-3)
28​
Warren Twp (5-4)
28​
W Chicago (6-3)
10​
Grant (6-3)
10​
Perspectives Charter (5-4)
12​
Barrington (7-2)
12​
Prospect (7-2)
2​
Geneva (8-1)
2​
Rochelle (8-1)
21​
South Elgin (6-3)
21​
Lincoln Way West (6-3)
15​
Deerfield (5-4)
15​
Marmion Acad (5-4)
2​
Lyons (9-0)
2​
Quincy (9-0)
1​
Richards-OL (8-1)
1​
Morgan Park (8-1)
31​
Waubonsie Val (5-4)
31​
Rolling Meadows (5-4)
16​
Springfield (5-4)
16​
Geneseo-Darnall (5-4)
15​
York (7-2)
15​
Harlem (7-2)
8​
Glenwood (7-2)
8​
Centralia (6-3)
18​
Minooka (7-2)
18​
Moline (7-2)
9​
Kennedy (7-2)
9​
Metamora (6-3)
7​
Palatine (8-1)
7​
Hononegah (8-1)
5​
Washington (7-2)
5​
Highland (6-3)
26​
Curie (5-4)
26​
Hoffman Estates (6-3)
12​
Crete Monee (6-3)
12​
Morris (5-4)
10​
Fremd (8-1)
10​
St Rita (7-2)
4​
Bloomington (7-2)
4​
Triad (7-2)
23​
Andrew (6-3)
23​
Arlington Hts-Hersey (6-3)
13​
Oak Forest (6-3)
13​
Hillcrest (5-4)
3​
Oswego (9-0)
3​
St Charles-North (8-1)
3​
East St Louis (8-1)
3​
Peoria (7-2)
30​
Huntley (5-4)
30​
Collinsville (5-4)
14​
Calumet City-TFN (6-3)
14​
Sacred Ht-Griffin (5-4)
14​
Naperville-North (7-2)
14​
Jacobs (7-2)
6​
Normal-Comm W (7-2)
6​
Joliet Cath (6-3)
19​
Plainfield South (7-2)
19​
Shepard (7-2)
11​
Benet Acad (6-3)
11​
Marion (6-3)
6​
Glenbard East (8-1)
6​
Normal (8-1)
7​
Simeon (7-2)
7​
Corliss (6-3)
27​
Schaumburg (5-4)
27​
Willowbrook (6-3)
10​
Lemont (6-3)
10​
Jacksonville (6-3)
11​
Stevenson (8-1)
11​
Pekin (7-2)
2​
Kankakee (8-1)
2​
Mahomet-Seymour (7-2)
22​
Belleville-East (6-3)
22​
Brother Rice (6-3)
15​
Dunlap (6-3)
15​
Tinley Park (5-4)
You have Downers North in 8a, they will be in 7a. That changes everything.
 
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I've got Palatine with 46 , Glenbard East and Naperville Central with 45 and Marist with 44 yet you have them the exact opposite - Naperville Central #8, Palatine #7, Glenbard North #6 and Marist #5 in your brackets?
 
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I've got Palatine with 46 , Glenbard East and Naperville Central with 45 and Marist with 44 yet you have them the exact opposite - Naperville Central #8, Palatine #7, Glenbard North #6 and Marist #5 in your brackets?
Your numbers are correct. That's what is on the IHSA site
 
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I've got Palatine with 46 , Glenbard East and Naperville Central with 45 and Marist with 44 yet you have them the exact opposite - Naperville Central #8, Palatine #7, Glenbard North #6 and Marist #5 in your brackets?
I have Marist with 46, Glenbard East and Palatine with 45, and Naperville Central with 44. I do think I need to swap Palatine and Glenbard East based on 2nd tiebreaker, however, which I was not doing correctly. Let me know if you see something wrong with these....

Primary TeamOpponent TeamOpp Projected Wins
Glenbard EastWillowbrook
6​
Glenbard EastAurora-West
9​
Glenbard EastBartlett
4​
Glenbard EastElmwood Park
0​
Glenbard EastRidgewood
4​
Glenbard EastFenton
6​
Glenbard EastW Chicago
6​
Glenbard EastGlenbard South
6​
Glenbard EastRiverside-Brookfield
4​
MaristMorgan Park
8​
MaristBrother Rice
6​
MaristMontini
7​
MaristJoliet Cath
6​
MaristImmaculate Concept
4​
MaristProvidence Cath
4​
MaristSt Ignatius
3​
MaristMarmion Acad
5​
MaristNotre Dame-Niles
3​
Naperville CentHinsdale
4​
Naperville CentNaperville-North
7​
Naperville CentAndrew
6​
Naperville CentStagg
3​
Naperville CentLincoln Way West
6​
Naperville CentLockport Twp
3​
Naperville CentMetea Val
1​
Naperville CentSandburg
5​
Naperville CentLincoln-Way East
9​
PalatineSt Charles-North
7​
PalatineProspect
7​
PalatineEvanston
3​
PalatineNew Trier
2​
PalatineSchaumburg
5​
PalatineHoffman Estates
6​
PalatineFremd
8​
PalatineConant
0​
PalatineBarrington
7​
 
I've got Palatine with 46 , Glenbard East and Naperville Central with 45 and Marist with 44 yet you have them the exact opposite - Naperville Central #8, Palatine #7, Glenbard North #6 and Marist #5 in your brackets?
Class 8a top seeds...

1 LWE 9-0 44
2 Lyons 9-0 37
3 Oswego 9-0 31
4 West Aur 9-0 29
5 Marist 8-1 46
6 Palatine 8-1 46
7 Glen East 8-1 45
8 Naper C 8-1 45
9 Fremd 8-1 40
10 Stevie 8-1 39
11 Barrington 7-2 50
12 Loyola 7-2 47
13 Naper N 7-2 46
14 York 7-2 43
15 Downers South 7-2 39
16 Taft 7-2 36+
17 Minooka 7-2 32
18 Plain South 7-2 25
19 Edwardsville 6-3 46
20 Maine S 6-3 44
21 Bell East 6-3 41
22 South Elgin 6-3 41
23 Andrew 6-3 37
 
Also looking at that data, palatine was the SCN chokejob away from a #1 overall seed in the state
 
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