LWE beat them the year they won state…I keep trying to tell folks that Czart can coach!
Probably the HittersWho does this push out of playoffs?
I was right. Projection had Barrington at 8-1 and Palatine at 7-2 ...OOPS! By my calculation Palatine comes in at #5 in 8A. Tied w/8-1 Marist at 43 playoff points, but Palatine has smaller classification enrollment,Just disagree with a week 9 projection. Guess we'll find out tomorrow
Palatine has 46 points. Marist 44. Marist is tied with Naperville at 44.I was right. Projection had Barrington at 8-1 and Palatine at 7-2 ...OOPS! By my calculation Palatine comes in at #5 in 8A. Tied w/8-1 Marist at 43 playoff points, but Palatine has smaller classification enrollment,
Cool. I was going by this, which must not be updated for tonight's results-> https://www.ihsafootball.com/conferencestandings.html?FBConferenceID=42Palatine has 46 points. Marist 44. Marist is tied with Naperville at 44.
They didn't fumble that sneak. He'd broken the plain already - MS should have never advanced.True. But they took Maine South to the wire, and had they not fumbled the go-ahead TD QB Sneak on the 1 yard line, they would've beat them. That MS team won the State Title.
31 open spots. 60 4-4 teams headed into Week 9. Of those, per Massey, 26 are predicted to win, 34 to lose. This would then mean 5 4-5 teams get in.
4-4 teams with Massey predicted probability of winning week 9 below. If anything looks wildly off base, I can check to see if something wrong in source data.
Bronzeville 0%Collins 0%Reavis 0%N Boone 1%Rich Cent 1%East Leyden 1%Stillman Val 2%East Peoria 2%Staunton - LOSERS 3%Grayslake Cent 4%Herscher 5%Immaculate Concept 5%Riverside-Brookfield 7%Centennial 9%Goode STEM 10%Mundelein 10%Oswego (East) 13%Lincoln 15%Hinsdale 15%Providence Cath 16%Clinton 20%Morton 21%Collinsville - they won. 25%Robinson 28%Eisenhower-BI 28%Marengo 29%Genoa-Kingston 31%Effingham - LOSERS 31%Freeport 32%Clifton Cent 37%Tinley Park 40%Amundsen 43%Oregon 44%Lake Zurich 49%Deerfield 54%Prairie Cent 55%Homewood-Flossmoor 60%Geneseo-Darnall 62%Argo 63%Deer Creek 67%Kewanee 76%Westinghouse 76%Frankfort 78%Notre Dame-Peoria 86%Bulls Col Prep 87%Wheaton-North 92%Curie 93%Marmion Acad 94%Plainfield North 94%Wheaton-W'ville S 95%Red Bud - they won. 96%Waubonsie Val 96%Hope Acad 99%Mt Carmel 99%Carlinville - they won. 99%Glenbrook South 99%Brown Co 100%Taylorville - they won. 100%Joliet West 100%Niles West 100%
If this is for me... I got a kid sleeping in the room where my computer is.... Hoping he wakes up soon so I can get to it. I know the 8A will have several changes after last nightI know there are a few Saturday games, and I’m sure you're a busy man, but can you give us something?
8A | 7A | 6A | 5A | |||||||
1 | Lincoln-Way East (9-0) | 1 | Young (9-0) | 1 | Cary-Grove (9-0) | 1 | Sycamore (9-0) | |||
32 | Joliet West (5-4) | 32 | Argo (5-4) | 16 | Senn (5-4) | 16 | Comer Prep (5-4) | |||
16 | Downers Grove-S (7-2) | 16 | Addison Trail (7-2) | 8 | Grayslake North (7-2) | 8 | Prosser (6-3) | |||
17 | Taft (7-2) | 17 | Moline (7-2) | 9 | Kennedy (7-2) | 9 | Westinghouse (5-4) | |||
8 | Naperville Cent (8-1) | 8 | Lincoln Park (8-1) | 5 | Wauconda (7-2) | 5 | Woodstock North (7-2) | |||
25 | Sandburg (5-4) | 25 | Hoffman Estates (6-3) | 12 | Fenton (6-3) | 12 | Sterling (5-4) | |||
9 | Downers Grove-N (8-1) | 9 | Maine West (8-1) | 4 | Burlington Cent (7-2) | 4 | Prairie Ridge (7-2) | |||
24 | Edwardsville (6-3) | 24 | Lincoln-Way Cent (6-3) | 13 | Kaneland (5-4) | 13 | Goode STEM (5-4) | |||
4 | Aurora-West (9-0) | 4 | Libertyville (8-1) | 3 | Belvidere North (8-1) | 3 | Rochelle (8-1) | |||
29 | Glenbrook South (5-4) | 29 | Wheaton-W'ville S (5-4) | 14 | Amundsen (5-4) | 14 | Payton Prep (5-4) | |||
13 | Loyola Acad (7-2) | 13 | Jacobs (7-2) | 6 | Lake Forest (7-2) | 6 | St Francis (6-3) | |||
20 | Maine South (6-3) | 20 | Lincoln Way West (6-3) | 11 | Glenbard South (6-3) | 11 | Freeport (5-4) | |||
5 | Marist (8-1) | 5 | Batavia (8-1) | 7 | Antioch (7-2) | 7 | St Laurence (6-3) | |||
28 | Warren Twp (5-4) | 28 | W Chicago (6-3) | 10 | Mather (6-3) | 10 | Perspectives Charter (5-4) | |||
12 | Barrington (7-2) | 12 | Fenwick (7-2) | 2 | Geneva (8-1) | 2 | Nazareth Acad (8-1) | |||
21 | South Elgin (6-3) | 21 | Brother Rice (6-3) | 15 | Deerfield (5-4) | 15 | Marmion Acad (5-4) | |||
2 | Lyons (9-0) | 2 | Quincy (9-0) | 1 | Richards-OL (8-1) | 1 | Morgan Park (8-1) | |||
31 | Waubonsie Val (5-4) | 31 | Rolling Meadows (5-4) | 16 | Springfield (5-4) | 16 | Geneseo-Darnall (5-4) | |||
15 | York (7-2) | 15 | Bradley-Bourbonnais (7-2) | 8 | Simeon (7-2) | 8 | Centralia (6-3) | |||
18 | Minooka (7-2) | 18 | Shepard (7-2) | 9 | Glenwood (7-2) | 9 | Metamora (6-3) | |||
7 | Palatine (8-1) | 7 | Hononegah (8-1) | 5 | St Rita (7-2) | 5 | Highland (6-3) | |||
26 | Curie (5-4) | 26 | Grant (6-3) | 12 | Crete Monee (6-3) | 12 | Morris (5-4) | |||
10 | Fremd (8-1) | 10 | Pekin (7-2) | 4 | Bloomington (7-2) | 4 | Triad (7-2) | |||
23 | Andrew (6-3) | 23 | Guilford (6-3) | 13 | Oak Forest (6-3) | 13 | Hillcrest (5-4) | |||
3 | Oswego (9-0) | 3 | St Charles-North (8-1) | 3 | East St Louis (8-1) | 3 | Peoria (7-2) | |||
30 | Huntley (5-4) | 30 | Collinsville (5-4) | 14 | Calumet City-TFN (6-3) | 14 | Sacred Ht-Griffin (5-4) | |||
14 | Naperville-North (7-2) | 14 | Harlem (7-2) | 6 | Washington (7-2) | 6 | Joliet Cath (6-3) | |||
19 | Plainfield South (7-2) | 19 | Chi-Mt Carmel (6-3) | 11 | Benet Acad (6-3) | 11 | Marion (6-3) | |||
6 | Glenbard East (8-1) | 6 | Normal (8-1) | 7 | Normal-Comm W (7-2) | 7 | Corliss (6-3) | |||
27 | Schaumburg (5-4) | 27 | Willowbrook (6-3) | 10 | Lemont (6-3) | 10 | Jacksonville (6-3) | |||
11 | Stevenson (8-1) | 11 | Prospect (7-2) | 2 | Kankakee (8-1) | 2 | Mahomet-Seymour (7-2) | |||
22 | Belleville-East (6-3) | 22 | Arlington Hts-Hersey (6-3) | 15 | Dunlap (6-3) | 15 | Tinley Park (5-4) |
Yes.....we know thatLWE beat them the year they won state…
Thanks, will update in a bit, kids haircut & carpools are interfering 🤣Francis 7-2
Dangithaving Rita in 6A skews both brackets. That won’t happen.
8A | 7A | 6A | 5A | |||||||
1 | Lincoln-Way East (9-0) | 1 | Young (9-0) | 1 | Cary-Grove (9-0) | 1 | Sycamore (9-0) | |||
32 | Joliet West (5-4) | 32 | Argo (5-4) | 16 | Senn (5-4) | 16 | Comer Prep (5-4) | |||
16 | Downers Grove-S (7-2) | 16 | Bradley-Bourbonnais (7-2) | 8 | Grayslake North (7-2) | 8 | Prosser (6-3) | |||
17 | Taft (7-2) | 17 | Addison Trail (7-2) | 9 | Mather (6-3) | 9 | Westinghouse (5-4) | |||
8 | Naperville Cent (8-1) | 8 | Lincoln Park (8-1) | 5 | Wauconda (7-2) | 5 | Prairie Ridge (7-2) | |||
25 | Sandburg (5-4) | 25 | Lincoln-Way Cent (6-3) | 12 | Fenton (6-3) | 12 | Sterling (5-4) | |||
9 | Downers Grove-N (8-1) | 9 | Maine West (8-1) | 4 | Burlington Cent (7-2) | 4 | St Francis (7-2) | |||
24 | Edwardsville (6-3) | 24 | Guilford (6-3) | 13 | Kaneland (5-4) | 13 | Goode STEM (5-4) | |||
4 | Aurora-West (9-0) | 4 | Libertyville (8-1) | 3 | Belvidere North (8-1) | 3 | Nazareth Acad (7-2) | |||
29 | Glenbrook South (5-4) | 29 | Wheaton-W'ville S (5-4) | 14 | Amundsen (5-4) | 14 | Payton Prep (5-4) | |||
13 | Loyola Acad (7-2) | 13 | Fenwick (7-2) | 6 | Lake Forest (7-2) | 6 | Woodstock North (7-2) | |||
20 | Maine South (6-3) | 20 | Chi-Mt Carmel (6-3) | 11 | Glenbard South (6-3) | 11 | Freeport (5-4) | |||
5 | Marist (8-1) | 5 | Batavia (8-1) | 7 | Antioch (7-2) | 7 | St Laurence (6-3) | |||
28 | Warren Twp (5-4) | 28 | W Chicago (6-3) | 10 | Grant (6-3) | 10 | Perspectives Charter (5-4) | |||
12 | Barrington (7-2) | 12 | Prospect (7-2) | 2 | Geneva (8-1) | 2 | Rochelle (8-1) | |||
21 | South Elgin (6-3) | 21 | Lincoln Way West (6-3) | 15 | Deerfield (5-4) | 15 | Marmion Acad (5-4) | |||
2 | Lyons (9-0) | 2 | Quincy (9-0) | 1 | Richards-OL (8-1) | 1 | Morgan Park (8-1) | |||
31 | Waubonsie Val (5-4) | 31 | Rolling Meadows (5-4) | 16 | Springfield (5-4) | 16 | Geneseo-Darnall (5-4) | |||
15 | York (7-2) | 15 | Harlem (7-2) | 8 | Glenwood (7-2) | 8 | Centralia (6-3) | |||
18 | Minooka (7-2) | 18 | Moline (7-2) | 9 | Kennedy (7-2) | 9 | Metamora (6-3) | |||
7 | Palatine (8-1) | 7 | Hononegah (8-1) | 5 | Washington (7-2) | 5 | Highland (6-3) | |||
26 | Curie (5-4) | 26 | Hoffman Estates (6-3) | 12 | Crete Monee (6-3) | 12 | Morris (5-4) | |||
10 | Fremd (8-1) | 10 | St Rita (7-2) | 4 | Bloomington (7-2) | 4 | Triad (7-2) | |||
23 | Andrew (6-3) | 23 | Arlington Hts-Hersey (6-3) | 13 | Oak Forest (6-3) | 13 | Hillcrest (5-4) | |||
3 | Oswego (9-0) | 3 | St Charles-North (8-1) | 3 | East St Louis (8-1) | 3 | Peoria (7-2) | |||
30 | Huntley (5-4) | 30 | Collinsville (5-4) | 14 | Calumet City-TFN (6-3) | 14 | Sacred Ht-Griffin (5-4) | |||
14 | Naperville-North (7-2) | 14 | Jacobs (7-2) | 6 | Normal-Comm W (7-2) | 6 | Joliet Cath (6-3) | |||
19 | Plainfield South (7-2) | 19 | Shepard (7-2) | 11 | Benet Acad (6-3) | 11 | Marion (6-3) | |||
6 | Glenbard East (8-1) | 6 | Normal (8-1) | 7 | Simeon (7-2) | 7 | Corliss (6-3) | |||
27 | Schaumburg (5-4) | 27 | Willowbrook (6-3) | 10 | Lemont (6-3) | 10 | Jacksonville (6-3) | |||
11 | Stevenson (8-1) | 11 | Pekin (7-2) | 2 | Kankakee (8-1) | 2 | Mahomet-Seymour (7-2) | |||
22 | Belleville-East (6-3) | 22 | Brother Rice (6-3) | 15 | Dunlap (6-3) | 15 | Tinley Park (5-4) |
LOL! I know you put a lot of time in this, so I didn't want to type anything.Dangit
Morris at 848 is the smallest 5A school in this scenario.Triad loss really shookup the bottom half of 5A. Centralia lowest enrollment of class @ 851.5
128 playoff qualifiers that have a larger enrollment than 848. Not that it matters this year.What can happen today to push Morris down to 4A?
The teams below are all 4-4, play today, are all favored, and all larger than Morris. So if they all win that pushes Morris down. I have them as the smallest team in 5A out of 255 qualifiers so if one 4-5 team gets in that is larger than Morris that may make them the largest 4A team. All that being said, bank on them being 5A.I know that. I meant what can happen today specifically to move the lines. What games outcomes could move Morris down.
Morris at highland would be a fun game I think. With a possible rematch at triad looming in round 2.
All their losses were to ranked teams...Sycamore, Rochelle, Peoria and Byron Center.....gave up a ton of points in those losses. They did beat Coal City a ranked 4A team.128 playoff qualifiers that have a larger enrollment than 848. Not that it matters this year.
So, in other words, they lost to any good team they played, with the exception of Coal City. 4A would depend on the draw, but not even going to dive into that because it's fairly likely Morris will again be the smallest 5A school.All their losses were to ranked teams...Sycamore, Rochelle, Peoria and Byron Center.....gave up a ton of points in those losses. They did beat Coal City a ranked 4A team.
If they go 4A they might surprise someone.
I did see a key player was back last night for Morris.
The reason why a poster thought Lake Zurich would get into the 6a field with a 4-5 record is because of the ihsa website’s playoff outlook which for better or mostly worse is available for all to see.‘Lake Zurich would make it at 4-5 in 6A & Willowbrook moves up from 6A to 7A’
Interested to know how LZ makes it at (4-5)?
These (see below) are the potential teams ahead of them - based on current playoff points - and LZ isn’t even on this list. They (LZ) currently sit at 41 playoff points and they’ll have to leapfrog 2/3rd’s of these potential qualifiers ahead of them. Won’t happen IMO.
Teams (15 total) stack-ranked by current total playoff points. These would be potential first-in (4-5) qualifiers:
(48) St. Ignatius (3-5)
(47) Chicago Kenwood (3-5)
(47) Chicago Lane (3-5)
(46) Carmel Catholic (3-5)
(46) Wheaton Warrenville South (4-4)
(45) Glenbard West (3-5)
(45) Lockport (3-5)
(44) Chicago Curie (4-4)
(44) Chicago Phillips (3-5)
(44) Chicago Westinghouse (4-4)
(44) Oswego East (4-4)
(43) Chicago Hope Academy (4-4)
(43) Collinsville (4-4)
(43) IC Catholic (4-4)
(43) Plainfield North (4-4)
Can’t predict the exact outcomes of these teams wk9 match-ups, but I’d bet 5-6 listed above ‘get in’, especially before Lake Zurich.
That's why I mentioned they gave up a ton of points. If the games had been closer I'd have a reason to be a little optimistic. Not so much this year.So, in other words, they lost to any good team they played, with the exception of Coal City. 4A would depend on the draw, but not even going to dive into that because it's fairly likely Morris will again be the smallest 5A school.
You have Downers North in 8a, they will be in 7a. That changes everything.Updated Francis/Naz records & Rita up to 7A. Keep bringing any errors you see!
8A 7A 6A 5A 1Lincoln-Way East (9-0) 1Young (9-0) 1Cary-Grove (9-0) 1Sycamore (9-0) 32Joliet West (5-4) 32Argo (5-4) 16Senn (5-4) 16Comer Prep (5-4) 16Downers Grove-S (7-2) 16Bradley-Bourbonnais (7-2) 8Grayslake North (7-2) 8Prosser (6-3) 17Taft (7-2) 17Addison Trail (7-2) 9Mather (6-3) 9Westinghouse (5-4) 8Naperville Cent (8-1) 8Lincoln Park (8-1) 5Wauconda (7-2) 5Prairie Ridge (7-2) 25Sandburg (5-4) 25Lincoln-Way Cent (6-3) 12Fenton (6-3) 12Sterling (5-4) 9Downers Grove-N (8-1) 9Maine West (8-1) 4Burlington Cent (7-2) 4St Francis (7-2) 24Edwardsville (6-3) 24Guilford (6-3) 13Kaneland (5-4) 13Goode STEM (5-4) 4Aurora-West (9-0) 4Libertyville (8-1) 3Belvidere North (8-1) 3Nazareth Acad (7-2) 29Glenbrook South (5-4) 29Wheaton-W'ville S (5-4) 14Amundsen (5-4) 14Payton Prep (5-4) 13Loyola Acad (7-2) 13Fenwick (7-2) 6Lake Forest (7-2) 6Woodstock North (7-2) 20Maine South (6-3) 20Chi-Mt Carmel (6-3) 11Glenbard South (6-3) 11Freeport (5-4) 5Marist (8-1) 5Batavia (8-1) 7Antioch (7-2) 7St Laurence (6-3) 28Warren Twp (5-4) 28W Chicago (6-3) 10Grant (6-3) 10Perspectives Charter (5-4) 12Barrington (7-2) 12Prospect (7-2) 2Geneva (8-1) 2Rochelle (8-1) 21South Elgin (6-3) 21Lincoln Way West (6-3) 15Deerfield (5-4) 15Marmion Acad (5-4) 2Lyons (9-0) 2Quincy (9-0) 1Richards-OL (8-1) 1Morgan Park (8-1) 31Waubonsie Val (5-4) 31Rolling Meadows (5-4) 16Springfield (5-4) 16Geneseo-Darnall (5-4) 15York (7-2) 15Harlem (7-2) 8Glenwood (7-2) 8Centralia (6-3) 18Minooka (7-2) 18Moline (7-2) 9Kennedy (7-2) 9Metamora (6-3) 7Palatine (8-1) 7Hononegah (8-1) 5Washington (7-2) 5Highland (6-3) 26Curie (5-4) 26Hoffman Estates (6-3) 12Crete Monee (6-3) 12Morris (5-4) 10Fremd (8-1) 10St Rita (7-2) 4Bloomington (7-2) 4Triad (7-2) 23Andrew (6-3) 23Arlington Hts-Hersey (6-3) 13Oak Forest (6-3) 13Hillcrest (5-4) 3Oswego (9-0) 3St Charles-North (8-1) 3East St Louis (8-1) 3Peoria (7-2) 30Huntley (5-4) 30Collinsville (5-4) 14Calumet City-TFN (6-3) 14Sacred Ht-Griffin (5-4) 14Naperville-North (7-2) 14Jacobs (7-2) 6Normal-Comm W (7-2) 6Joliet Cath (6-3) 19Plainfield South (7-2) 19Shepard (7-2) 11Benet Acad (6-3) 11Marion (6-3) 6Glenbard East (8-1) 6Normal (8-1) 7Simeon (7-2) 7Corliss (6-3) 27Schaumburg (5-4) 27Willowbrook (6-3) 10Lemont (6-3) 10Jacksonville (6-3) 11Stevenson (8-1) 11Pekin (7-2) 2Kankakee (8-1) 2Mahomet-Seymour (7-2) 22Belleville-East (6-3) 22Brother Rice (6-3) 15Dunlap (6-3) 15Tinley Park (5-4)
Your numbers are correct. That's what is on the IHSA siteI've got Palatine with 46 , Glenbard East and Naperville Central with 45 and Marist with 44 yet you have them the exact opposite - Naperville Central #8, Palatine #7, Glenbard North #6 and Marist #5 in your brackets?
I have Marist with 46, Glenbard East and Palatine with 45, and Naperville Central with 44. I do think I need to swap Palatine and Glenbard East based on 2nd tiebreaker, however, which I was not doing correctly. Let me know if you see something wrong with these....I've got Palatine with 46 , Glenbard East and Naperville Central with 45 and Marist with 44 yet you have them the exact opposite - Naperville Central #8, Palatine #7, Glenbard North #6 and Marist #5 in your brackets?
Primary Team | Opponent Team | Opp Projected Wins |
Glenbard East | Willowbrook | 6 |
Glenbard East | Aurora-West | 9 |
Glenbard East | Bartlett | 4 |
Glenbard East | Elmwood Park | 0 |
Glenbard East | Ridgewood | 4 |
Glenbard East | Fenton | 6 |
Glenbard East | W Chicago | 6 |
Glenbard East | Glenbard South | 6 |
Glenbard East | Riverside-Brookfield | 4 |
Marist | Morgan Park | 8 |
Marist | Brother Rice | 6 |
Marist | Montini | 7 |
Marist | Joliet Cath | 6 |
Marist | Immaculate Concept | 4 |
Marist | Providence Cath | 4 |
Marist | St Ignatius | 3 |
Marist | Marmion Acad | 5 |
Marist | Notre Dame-Niles | 3 |
Naperville Cent | Hinsdale | 4 |
Naperville Cent | Naperville-North | 7 |
Naperville Cent | Andrew | 6 |
Naperville Cent | Stagg | 3 |
Naperville Cent | Lincoln Way West | 6 |
Naperville Cent | Lockport Twp | 3 |
Naperville Cent | Metea Val | 1 |
Naperville Cent | Sandburg | 5 |
Naperville Cent | Lincoln-Way East | 9 |
Palatine | St Charles-North | 7 |
Palatine | Prospect | 7 |
Palatine | Evanston | 3 |
Palatine | New Trier | 2 |
Palatine | Schaumburg | 5 |
Palatine | Hoffman Estates | 6 |
Palatine | Fremd | 8 |
Palatine | Conant | 0 |
Palatine | Barrington | 7 |
Class 8a top seeds...I've got Palatine with 46 , Glenbard East and Naperville Central with 45 and Marist with 44 yet you have them the exact opposite - Naperville Central #8, Palatine #7, Glenbard North #6 and Marist #5 in your brackets?
That was a really tough loss in a game they absolutely had — until they didn’t.Also looking at that data, palatine was the SCN chokejob away from a #1 overall seed in the state