Playoff Bracket Projections- Including projected Week 9 results & regional assigments

[kpjasion]

Class 8a top seeds...

1 LWE 9-0 44
2 Lyons 9-0 37
3 Oswego 9-0 31
4 West Aur 9-0 29
5 Marist 8-1 46
6 Palatine 8-1 46
7 Glen East 8-1 45
8 Naper C 8-1 45
9 Fremd 8-1 40
10 Stevie 8-1 39
11 Barrington 7-2 50
12 Loyola 7-2 47
13 Naper N 7-2 46
14 York 7-2 43
15 Downers South 7-2 39
16 Taft 7-2 36+
17 Minooka 7-2 32
18 Plain South 7-2 25
19 Edwardsville 6-3 46
20 Maine S 6-3 44
21 Bell East 6-3 41
22 South Elgin 6-3 41
23 Andrew 6-3 37

Marist still at 44 from what I see, not 46

RANK	TEAM	RECORD	POINTS	ENROLLMENT
1	LWE	9-0	44	2729
2	Lyons	9-0	37	3947
3	Oswego	9-0	31	2843.5
4	West Aurora	9-0	29	3561
5	Palatine	8-1	46	2597.5
6	Glenbard East	8-1	45	2255
7	Naperville Central	8-1	45	2591
8	Marist	8-1	44	2662.28
9	Fremd	8-1	40	2608
10	Stevenson	8-1	40	4313.5
11	Barrington	7-2	50	2810.5
12	Naperville North	7-2	46	2655.5
13	Loyola	7-2	46	3276.08
14	York	7-2	43	2789.5
15	Downer Grove South	7-2	39	2712
16	Taft	7-2	36	3849
17	Minooka	7-2	32	2737
18	Plainfield South	7-2	25	2360
19	Edwardsville	6-3	46	2307
20	Maine South	6-3	44	2382.5
21	Belleville East	6-3	41	2439
22	South Elgin	6-3	41	2849.5
23	Andrew*	6-3	37	2217
24	Sandburg	5-4	51	2834
25	Curie	5-4	49	3019
26	Warren	5-4	45	3696.5
27	Glenbrook South	5-4	42	3053.5
28	Huntley	5-4	40	2996
29	Waubonsie Valley	5-4	35	2462.5
30	Joliet West	5-4	34	3337.5
31	Niles West	5-4	32	2476
32	Plainfield North*	4-5	50	2351.5

 

[kpjasion]

That was a really tough loss in a game they absolutely had — until they didn’t.

Yeah, it sucks - but SCN turned out to be an 8-1 team too who beat Geneva last night by two touchdowns, and had Batavia down by two TD's before they "pulled a Palatine". Plus Plumb's throw on the two point conversion was perfect - kudos- he put it in the only spot where our defender wouldn't have batted it down.

SCN's average margin of victory in their other 7 wins was by 20.7 points, so a 1 pt last 10 seconds loss in retrospect isn't that terrible. I think if they have Santiago back by the second round they can play like they were the #1 seed.

 

[Ger-Man]

Oswego East in 8A at 4-5, DGN a 5 seed in 7A and move Libertyville to 6A

 

[NNFAN]

Marist still at 44 from what I see, not 46

That's because Morgan Park's win today hasn't been included. And also Marmion is expected to beat Chicago Leo today. Giving Marist two more points.

 

[kpjasion]

That's because Morgan Park's win today hasn't been included. And also Marmion is expected to beat Chicago Leo today. Giving Marist two more points.

OK, but that still puts Palatine and Marist at 46 each, and Palatine Enrollment # is smaller?

RANK	TEAM	RECORD	POINTS	ENROLLMENT
5	Palatine	8-1	46	2597.5
6	Marist	8-1	46	2662.28

BTW - not trying to be argumentative, I'll admit to being a Palatine homer - but this is a blast discussing today no matter where they land.

 

[Topiary]

OK, but that still puts Palatine and Marist at 46 each, and Palatine Enrollment # is smaller?

RANK	TEAM	RECORD	POINTS	ENROLLMENT
5	Palatine	8-1	46	2597.5
6	Marist	8-1	46	2662.28

BTW - not trying to be argumentative, I'll admit to being a Palatine homer - but this is a blast discussing today no matter where they landD

Didn't Palatine win their division? If so don't they get tie-breaker since Marist came in 2nd in their own division?

 

[NNFAN]

OK, but that still puts Palatine and Marist at 46 each, and Palatine Enrollment # is smaller?

RANK	TEAM	RECORD	POINTS	ENROLLMENT
5	Palatine	8-1	46	2597.5
6	Marist	8-1	46	2662.28

BTW - not trying to be argumentative, I'll admit to being a Palatine homer - but this is a blast discussing today no matter where they land.

Both would have 46. Would come down to a tiebreaker, but IHSA hasn't updated the page yet. Enrollment is not a factor. https://www.ihsa.org/Sports-Activit...Information-Results?url=/data/fb/hopefuls.htm

 

[4Afan]

Didn't Palatine win their division? If so don't they get tie-breaker since Marist came in 2nd in their own division?

All this info is readily available. Enrollment and conference rank are not factors unless they're in the same conference.

The first step is to select the 256 playoff teams. The process proceeds as follows:

1. All champions of conferences with six or more teams receive a playoff berth. Two-team ties are broken on the basis of head-to-head competition when those teams have played during the regular season. Three- and four-way ties are broken by eliminating teams according to the following steps. If, after any step is applied, only two teams remain, the head-to-head matchup determines the champion.
   1. Most wins in all conference games.
   2. Any team that has defeated all the other tied teams.
   3. If all tied teams played each other, fewest total points allowed in those games.
   4. If all tied teams played each other, highest point differential in those games (from -14 to 14 points in each game).
   5. Fewest total points allowed in all conference games.
   6. Highest point differential in all conference games (from -14 to 14 points in each game).
   7. Most wins in all games.
   8. Random drawing by IHSA Office.
2. At the request of the Chicago Public League, all teams in the Red, White-North, and White-South divisions are eligible for the IHSA playoffs.
   Additionally, at the request of the Chicago Public League, the top two teams from White-Northwest, White-South Central, White-Southwest, and White-West divisions are eligible for the IHSA playoffs.
   
   
3. The remaining schools are sorted by three categories:
   1. First, by total wins
   2. Second, by combined wins of all opponents
   3. Third, by combined wins of all defeated opponents
      For example:

   School	Wins	Combined Wins of All Opponents	Combined Wins of Defeated Opponents
   Abingdon	9	30	30
   Ziegler-Royalton	9	27	27
   Staunton	8	37	30
   Elgin	8	37	29
   Chicago Vocational	7	40	30
   Byron	7	38	31
   Libertyville	6	43	30
   Johnston City	6	37	28

4. Starting at the top of this sorted list, the teams are added to the playoff field until the 256-team limit is reached. In the event of a tie for the 256th position, the following tiebreakers are applied:
   1. Head-to-head competition (if the teams have met)
   2. Number of teams played that qualified for the playoffs
   3. Number of wins by teams played that qualified for the playoffs
   4. Points allowed in games against teams that qualified for the playoffs
   5. Coin flip
      In practice, teams with 9, 8, 7, and 6 wins will always qualify for the playoffs. Teams with 5 wins are "on the bubble," and the tie is broken by the number of playoff points (the combined wins of all opponents).

 

[SiuCubFan8]

Kenwood only 4-5 getting in per Souc…

 

[kpjasion]

All this info is readily available. Enrollment and conference rank are not factors unless they're in the same conference.

The first step is to select the 256 playoff teams. The process proceeds as follows:

1. All champions of conferences with six or more teams receive a playoff berth. Two-team ties are broken on the basis of head-to-head competition when those teams have played during the regular season. Three- and four-way ties are broken by eliminating teams according to the following steps. If, after any step is applied, only two teams remain, the head-to-head matchup determines the champion.
   1. Most wins in all conference games.
   2. Any team that has defeated all the other tied teams.
   3. If all tied teams played each other, fewest total points allowed in those games.
   4. If all tied teams played each other, highest point differential in those games (from -14 to 14 points in each game).
   5. Fewest total points allowed in all conference games.
   6. Highest point differential in all conference games (from -14 to 14 points in each game).
   7. Most wins in all games.
   8. Random drawing by IHSA Office.
2. At the request of the Chicago Public League, all teams in the Red, White-North, and White-South divisions are eligible for the IHSA playoffs.
   Additionally, at the request of the Chicago Public League, the top two teams from White-Northwest, White-South Central, White-Southwest, and White-West divisions are eligible for the IHSA playoffs.
   
   
3. The remaining schools are sorted by three categories:
   1. First, by total wins
   2. Second, by combined wins of all opponents
   3. Third, by combined wins of all defeated opponents
      For example:
   4. SchoolWinsCombined Wins
      of All OpponentsCombined Wins of
      Defeated OpponentsAbingdon93030Ziegler-Royalton92727Staunton83730Elgin83729Chicago Vocational74030Byron73831Libertyville64330Johnston City63728
4. Starting at the top of this sorted list, the teams are added to the playoff field until the 256-team limit is reached. In the event of a tie for the 256th position, the following tiebreakers are applied:
   1. Head-to-head competition (if the teams have met)
   2. Number of teams played that qualified for the playoffs
   3. Number of wins by teams played that qualified for the playoffs
   4. Points allowed in games against teams that qualified for the playoffs
   5. Coin flip
      In practice, teams with 9, 8, 7, and 6 wins will always qualify for the playoffs. Teams with 5 wins are "on the bubble," and the tie is broken by the number of playoff points (the combined wins of all opponents).

Yes, Palatine get's the "R":

R	Palatine (H.S.)	5	0	8	1	46	282	133
C	Palatine (Fremd)	4	1	8	1	40	383	117
C	Barrington	3	2	7	2	50	396	228

And then they win on #3 too?

 

[4Afan]

Yes, Palatine get's the "R":

R	Palatine (H.S.)	5	0	8	1	46	282	133
C	Palatine (Fremd)	4	1	8	1	40	383	117
C	Barrington	3	2	7	2	50	396	228

And then they win on #3 too?

Win what? #3 is just tie breaker scenarios. Who would they be in a tie with for seeding in 8A

 

[MS4EVER]

They didn't fumble that sneak. He'd broken the plain already - MS should have never advanced.

That’s not what happened. You must be thinking about another game.

 

[4Afan]

That's why I mentioned they gave up a ton of points. If the games had been closer I'd have a reason to be a little optimistic. Not so much this year.

Morris will be the smallest school in 5A.

 

[cigaros]

Kenwood only 4-5 getting in per Souc…

And per the IHSA site

 

[cigaros]

Morris will be the smallest school in 5A.

Burbank St. Laurence at 844 looks like the smallest in 5A with Geneseo the largest in 4A.

 

[4Afan]

Burbank St. Laurence at 844 looks like the smallest in 5A with Geneseo the largest in 4A.

I could have drawn the lines incorrectly or missed something, but I think Morris will be the smallest and StL will be largest in 4A again.

 

[crusader_of_90]

I love how everyone is scrambling to figure out a math problem before the answer is announced in an hour.

 

[4Afan]

I love how everyone is scrambling to figure out a math problem before the answer is announced in an hour.

That's half the fun for the teams that are right on the line, guessing where they're gonna end up. I can see how it doesn't seem entertaining when you already know your teams are in 1A and 6A south.

 

[crusader_of_90]

You assumed I was being snotty - but everyone wants to figure out the puzzle.

 

[PowerI66]

VS

 

[crusader_of_90]

I am thinking it more like this.

 

[PowerI66]

Potato, potato. Zach is doing the rain man thing in the hangover. To be fair, the gif search I did was "rain man math"

 

[Wittymoniker1]

I love how everyone is scrambling to figure out a math problem before the answer is announced in an hour.

This is who we are! LOL!

 

[4hhsbulldogs]

The teams below are all 4-4, play today, are all favored, and all larger than Morris. So if they all win that pushes Morris down. I have them as the smallest team in 5A out of 255 qualifiers so if one 4-5 team gets in that is larger than Morris that may make them the largest 4A team. All that being said, bank on them being 5A.

Chicago (Westinghouse College Prep)
Chicago (Perspectives/Leadership) [Coop]
Aurora (Marmion Academy)
Chicago (Noble/Bulls)

IF, and that's a big if, Morris were to play and beat Highland the Triad game would be at Morris.

Fell just a little different with someone pushing Morris up to the 13 seed. They will get Triad and the winner will take on the winner of Highland/Marion.

The thought of a Highland/Triad rematch in round 2 is exciting. They will both need to take care of business of course.

 

[4Afan]

Fell just a little different with someone pushing Morris up to the 13 seed. They will get Triad and the winner will take on the winner of Highland/Marion.

The thought of a Highland/Triad rematch in round 2 is exciting. They will both need to take care of business of course.

Morris wasn't pushed up to the 13 seed. They are still the smallest school in 5A. Their ranking is based on being the 5-4 team with the most playoff points.

 

[4hhsbulldogs]

Morris wasn't pushed up to the 13 seed. They are still the smallest school in 5A. Their ranking is based on being the 5-4 team with the most playoff points.

My point is that they went from projected as the 12 in this thread and something happened that pushed them up a line to 13.

I understand how the seeding works. Thank you.

 

[crusader_of_90]

Can someone confirm Althoff can potentially get Camp Point in the semis at Althoff?

 

[4Afan]

Can someone confirm Althoff can potentially get Camp Point in the semis at Althoff?

Can't make that projection this early, but if everything plays to the seeds it would be at Camp Point as Althoff is the #1 seed and would continue to have home games as long as the higher seeds keep winning whereas CP is #3 and would have to go on the road to play #2 in the quarters.

 

[4Anorth]

My point is that they went from projected as the 12 in this thread and something happened that pushed them up a line to 13.

I understand how the seeding works. Thank you.

Souice had a Triad/Morris matchup at 2:30am on Shaw News Facebook page today....kinda anti- climatic😂

 

[wickerpark wildcat]

I've got Palatine with 46 , Glenbard East and Naperville Central with 45 and Marist with 44 yet you have them the exact opposite - Naperville Central #8, Palatine #7, Glenbard North #6 and Marist #5 in your brackets?

Trying to figure out where my last projected bracket went wrong....

Mystery (on my end) somewhat solved.... the formula on my end that looked for opponent wins was still referencing the projected wins at end of week 8 (week 8 records + week 9 Massey predicted winners) vs. updating with week 9 actual results. The other issue I had looks to me that perhaps there are CPL schools not participating in playoffs, but their division is not indicated that way on IHSA site (as far as I can tell).

 

[cigaros]

Trying to figure out where my last projected bracket went wrong....

Mystery (on my end) somewhat solved.... the formula on my end that looked for opponent wins was still referencing the projected wins at end of week 8 (week 8 records + week 9 Massey predicted winners) vs. updating with week 9 actual results. The other issue I had looks to me that perhaps there are CPL schools not participating in playoffs, but their division is not indicated that way on IHSA site (as far as I can tell).

Could also be the misplacing of teams which played up or were success factored. ESL has always been 6A. St. Rita was always going to be 7A. I predicted 31 of 32 in the 4A bracket as I expected St. Laurence to be 5A this year and a 3A team to move up. But this is the fun of the math and projections.

 

[Wittymoniker1]

Trying to figure out where my last projected bracket went wrong....

Mystery (on my end) somewhat solved.... the formula on my end that looked for opponent wins was still referencing the projected wins at end of week 8 (week 8 records + week 9 Massey predicted winners) vs. updating with week 9 actual results. The other issue I had looks to me that perhaps there are CPL schools not participating in playoffs, but their division is not indicated that way on IHSA site (as far as I can tell).

This was your first time doing this on this board. You did a great job. Hopefully, you'll do it next year as well. It's always great seeing the potential matchups week-by-week.

 

[Alexander32]

I'm not really sure what the word "dragged" means, as used in the sentence above. However, given the context I will assume it was meant to be a negative comment. Just as a matter of relevant information, the record of the Upstate Eight conference champion over the last five first-round games is 5-0, with the closest win being by 8 points. It could happen, but I will be very surprised if West Aurora loses its first-round game this year (or gets "dragged" as you would put it).

HEADLINE: West Aurora Avoids Getting "Dragged"

West Aurora wins its opening round playoff game 31 to 21 over Fox Valley opponent. Upstate Eight Conference champions run their opening round winning streak to six games.

 

[PowerI66]

I don't think beating Huntley in the playoffs is the flex you think it is. I think you can context clue that one as well. I will gladly admit I was wrong about them if they pull out a win against Maine South though.

 

[colin2229]

I don't think beating Huntley in the playoffs is the flex you think it is. I think you can context clue that one as well. I will gladly admit I was wrong about them if they pull out a win against Maine South though.

West Aurora by 3

 

[PowerI66]

Certainly possible. This is a "down" MS team the past two years. Even with that, not an easy task. Happy to admit when I'm wrong. Just like I was with Barrington last year

 

[colin2229]

Certainly possible. This is a "down" MS team the past two years. Even with that, not an easy task. Happy to admit when I'm wrong. Just like I was with Barrington last year

I’m an Aurora guy and really like what Coach Eimer has been able to achieve at WA. I hope they make a deep run for the city…would bring a lot of pride for the city that always seems to be viewed as second class to the neighboring cities.

#homerPICK

 

[crusader_of_90]

I’m an Aurora guy and really like what Coach Eimer has been able to achieve at WA. I hope they make a deep run for the city…would bring a lot of pride for the city that always seems to be viewed as second class to the neighboring cities.

#homerPICK

You can take pride in Alarm Detection Systems, one of the largest and finest alarm contractor agencies in the nation!

 

[4Afan]

You can take pride in Alarm Detection Systems, one of the largest and finest alarm contractor agencies in the nation!

Not gonna lie, I don't hate the blatant self promotion.

 

[crusader_of_90]

Friends' company. Not mine.