Massey Predictions Week 2

[wickerpark wildcat]

Week 2, games that differed greatly from predicted outcome based on Massey formula (note, I use the ratings pre-game, not the ones *current* ones which are updates based on those games):

Game	Massey Predicted Score	Actual Score	Diff	Upset
Belleville (Althoff Catholic) @ Decatur (St. Teresa)	34-25	61-0	(52)	0
Watseka @ Gilman (Iroquois West)	18-31	38-0	(51)	1
LeRoy vs Downs (Tri-Valley)	18-32	41-14	(41)	1
Benton vs Salem	35-18	56-0	(39)	0
Peotone @ Marengo	22-32	42-13	(39)	1
Bensenville (Fenton) vs Streamwood	24-27	43-8	(38)	1
Freeburg @ Jerseyville (Jersey)	25-29	41-7	(38)	1
Palos Heights (Shepard) vs Chicago (Brooks)	29-13	53-0	(37)	0
Galena (H.S.) vs Morrison	15-26	34-9	(36)	1
Dwight [Dwight/Gardner-So. Wilmington Coop] @ Elgin (St. Edward)	26-19	51-8	(36)	0
Nokomis @ Argenta (A.-Oreana)	31-18	49-0	(36)	0
Chicago (Hubbard) vs Chicago (Englewood STEM)	26-17	44-0	(35)	0
Kankakee (Sr.) vs Washington	25-25	42-7	(35)	0
Manteno @ Plano	18-32	27-6	(35)	1
Pleasant Hill [Coop] @ Beardstown	16-31	20-0	(35)	1
East Peoria @ Springfield (Lanphier)	34-23	44-0	(33)	0
Jacksonville (Routt) [Coop] @ White Hall (North Greene)	40-18	61-6	(33)	0
Aurora (Waubonsie Valley) vs Plainfield (East)	30-12	50-0	(32)	0
Chester vs Pinckneyville	34-15	56-6	(31)	0
Quincy (Notre Dame) vs Richmond (R.-Burton)	12-31	22-10	(31)	1

 

[wickerpark wildcat]

Of interest (maybe) as well. Teams that have significantly increased/ decreased their Massey Rank from end of 2023 -> start of week 3 2024..

Rose:

Team	2023 Final Rating	2024 Wk 2-3 Rating	Rise/ Fall
Harvard	402​	248​	154​
Plainfield South	225​	76​	149​
East Richland	444​	307​	137​
Fenton	473​	347​	126​
Manteno	279​	173​	106​
East Leyden	302​	198​	104​
Pittsfield	417​	313​	104​
Genoa-Kingston	267​	168​	99​
Glenbard North	171​	74​	97​
Waukegan	332​	236​	96​

Fell:

Team	2023 Final Rating	2024 Wk 2-3 Rating	Rise/ Fall
Amboy	207​	343​	-136​
Athens	157​	287​	-130​
Mater Dei	173​	298​	-125​
Knoxville Central	247​	358​	-111​
Lawrenceville	303​	414​	-111​
DuQuoin	136​	245​	-109​
St Thomas More	381​	490​	-109​
Highland Park	168​	275​	-107​
Morrison	180​	283​	-103​
Morton	62​	163​	-101​

 

[RoaminCatholic]

Look at lil ole Pittsfield carrying some heavy weight this season! I believe they may still hold a record for most consecutive wins. Something like 66 or 68 consecutive victories. 1966-1973?

Anyways... Pike County's finest... Go Saukees!

 

[whitesox05]

Lake Forest was +28 against Carmel and won by 10, so a difference of 38 points...if LF doesn't miss a short field goal and fumble at the goal line, they would've been 48 points off.

 

[wickerpark wildcat]

Lake Forest was +28 against Carmel and won by 10, so a difference of 38 points...if LF doesn't miss a short field goal and fumble at the goal line, they would've been 48 points off.

Hmm... using the #'s coming after week 1 & the formula published on the site, I came up with a prediction of 32-16 Carmel.... that's a big difference from what you said, so I'll do some checking in my formulas to see if I screwed something up.

 

[whitesox05]

I look at the Massey site every week. Massey predicted a 41-13 Carmel win...it sounds like maybe you are doing something different that I don't understand.

So you are making your own predictions? When you say "my formulas" I have no idea what that means.

Regardless, whatever the point spread, it was a noteworthy upset.

 

[wickerpark wildcat]

I look at the Massey site every week. Massey predicted a 41-13 Carmel win...it sounds like maybe you are doing something different that I don't understand.

So you are making your own predictions? When you say "my formulas" I have no idea what that means.

Regardless, whatever the point spread, it was a noteworthy upset.

Agree it was a great win for LF. I have been trying to compare the Massey Prediction vs. Actual for ALL games, so I can't possibly (or at least not willing to) go to the Massey Matchup page for every game. Instead, I use the formula he put on the site:

Making Predictions

which is:
Ascore = Aoff - Bdef +/- (Ah + Bh)/4
Bscore = Boff - Adef -/+ (Ah + Bh)/4

So, going into last week, downloading all the rankings, I had:
LF Off= 39.5 LF Def = 17.8
Carmel Off= 48.7 Carmel Def= 22.7

So LF score prediction= 39.5 - 22.7 = 16.8 - adjustment for being visiting team (last part of above formula) ->~16 pts
Carmel = 48.7 - 17.8 = 31 + home field -> ~32 pts

🤷‍♂️

*** When I said "my formulas" above, I meant the formulas I put into my excel spreadsheet that are meant to leverage the Massey Ratings and Massey Predicted score formula I reference here.

 

[AlabamaTimberwolf]

Look at lil ole Pittsfield carrying some heavy weight this season! I believe they may still hold a record for most consecutive wins. Something like 66 or 68 consecutive victories. 1966-1973?

Anyways... Pike County's finest... Go Saukees!

A long time ago the SJ-R had an article about that Pittsfield streak. Impressive streak too bad most of those involved are gone. I would've loved to hear about how they practiced.

 

[Silver Rain]

Pittsfield

40 years later: Pittsfield football players reflect on most dominant season ever

The Pittsfield High School football team of 1970 not only went undefeated but they didn't give up a single point. The Saukees were one of the state’s last football dynasties before the Illinois High …

www.sj-r.com

Unbeaten, untied, unscored upon.

 

[AlabamaTimberwolf]

40 years later: Pittsfield football players reflect on most dominant season ever

The Pittsfield High School football team of 1970 not only went undefeated but they didn't give up a single point. The Saukees were one of the state’s last football dynasties before the Illinois High …

www.sj-r.com

Unbeaten, untied, unscored upon.

I had to drive over to Pittsfield in the 90s to scout a game. Very impressed with the people then and still have a warm spot in my heart for Pittsfield.