ICE week 8

[Wilmatucky]

Streator (2-5) @ Reed-Custer (2-5) - Not the season RC envisioned after having a generational group come through the last two years. Streator played the 'Tone tough and who knows, maybe they are starting to click. If RC is hanging their heads about being eliminated from playoffs, I think it is possible for Streator to sneak a win in, however I don't think that will be the case. I think RC picks up this win, but I'm not sure how easy it will be for them. RC 28 - Streator 21

Coal City (5-2) @ Herscher (2-5) - CC will bounce back after getting owned by the Cats. Don't think it will be close. CC 42 - Herscher 10

Lisle (1-6) @ Peotone - (4-3) - Peotone needs the next two to be guaranteed a playoff spot. Lisle is atrocious and they cannot be motivated to go out and play. Easy win for the Tone. Devils 35 - Lisle 7

Manteno (4-3) @ Wilmington (6-1) - GOTW! Default game of the week. Only game featuring two teams with winning records. Manteno needs one of the next two to be considered for playoffs, but I don't think it'll happen. They surprised me this season by winning 4, and maybe they will be on the up. The confidence has to be pumping in Wilmatucky and they can fine tune some things before playoffs. No challenge here either. Wilmo 42.- Manteno 14

Playoff thoughts

Wilmo, CC, and Peotone appear to be the only teams that will qualify. I hate to say it, but the doubters who mentioned it throughout the season appear to be right. The ICE is pretty weak overall IMO. RC back to earth, Lisle has turned into a joke of a team, Manteno still isn't there yet, and the last two well they competed and picked up a few wins each.

Will all 5 win teams get in this year? I know they did last year, and I am unsure of the numbers this year. If they don't, what will the cutoff be for playoff points.

 

[doctor_d]

Last year Buffalo Grove got in as an at large 4-5 with 56 playoff points. If you follow Soucie at all, he seems to think we are trending in the direction that more 4 win teams will get in. I think it simply has to do with less overall teams available.

 

[doctor_d]

Also, I agree 100% with all your picks and analysis up there @Wilmatucky No need to type my own.

In other news, Seneca's stud QB was out last night with injury. According to what I read on another site, he will be back for the playoffs. Seneca would be a much lesser team if he is unable to go. That kid is really good. I'm still hoping Wilmo can sneak into 2A and get a rematch., but R-C losing last night didn't help that cause.

 

[Wilmatucky]

Also, I agree 100% with all your picks and analysis up there @Wilmatucky No need to type my own.

In other news, Seneca's stud QB was out last night with injury. According to what I read on another site, he will be back for the playoffs. Seneca would be a much lesser team if he is unable to go. That kid is really good. I'm still hoping Wilmo can sneak into 2A and get a rematch., but R-C losing last night didn't help that cause.

3a will be a tough road for Wilmo. Could put a damper on the playoff run.

 

[siu47]

Streator over RC

Peotone over Lisle

CC over Herscher

Wilmington over Manteno

 

[McEvergreen]

Definitely a ho-hum week in the disappointing ICE. Wilmington really separated themselves and Reents has them peaking at the right time. Looking forward to their playoff run whether in 2A or 3A.

Cats over Manteno
RC over Streator
CC over Herscher
Peotone over Lisle

 

[Wilmatucky]

3A will be a tough road for the cats. Especially if RB ends up there.

 

[Wilmatucky]

I love studying numbers, but I admit I kind of suck at it, especially when there are tons of moving parts like a playoff outlook. I know Dr. D mentioned that Braidwood not qualifying may hurt Wilmington's chance of ending up in 2a. Right now, with the current outlook, it looks like there are 4 schools set to make the playoffs with an enrollment larger than WHS 409.5:
Chicago Crane in at 417
PBL 5-2 (probably a guarantee in) at 415.5
Carlinville and Oregon (4-3, should get in) 412 and 417 respectively

On the flip side there are 3 teams below Braidwood's 445.5 in the current 3a outlook that are locks to get in, or should get in (Duquoin, SJO, Eureka just needs one win). Sherrard, Fairfield and Beardstown could get in, but it'll take them winning the last two weeks against similarly matched opponents.

Richmond-Burton is currently the smallest team in the 4a outlook.

With Byron, Princeton, and montini all in the north of 3a that looks to be a brutal bracket. 2A north is a little harder to predict just because those central IL teams could be border line north and south.

So what does all this mean? I don't know. I'm a pot of coffee deep and get bored on my days off.

 

[siu47]

IC is in 4 a bc of success factor I believe or multiplier. Idk i get them mixed up but they are 4a.

Montini is lurking in 3a though🙄

Also don’t know for a fact but rumor in Peotone is Coach Tolle is out for this week. Incident after their game vs Streator. Can anyone confirm? Any Streator fans here?

Talking to parents, they said the officiating was atrocious that night for Peotone.

 

[4Afan]

I love studying numbers, but I admit I kind of suck at it, especially when there are tons of moving parts like a playoff outlook. I know Dr. D mentioned that Braidwood not qualifying may hurt Wilmington's chance of ending up in 2a. Right now, with the current outlook, it looks like there are 4 schools set to make the playoffs with an enrollment larger than WHS 409.5:
Chicago Crane in at 417
PBL 5-2 (probably a guarantee in) at 415.5
Carlinville and Oregon (4-3, should get in) 412 and 417 respectively

On the flip side there are 3 teams below Braidwood's 445.5 in the current 3a outlook that are locks to get in, or should get in (Duquoin, SJO, Eureka just needs one win). Sherrard, Fairfield and Beardstown could get in, but it'll take them winning the last two weeks against similarly matched opponents.

Richmond-Burton is currently the smallest team in the 4a outlook.

With Byron, Princeton, and IC all in the north of 3a that looks to be a brutal bracket. 2A north is a little harder to predict just because those central IL teams could be border line north and south.

So what does all this mean? I don't know. I'm a pot of coffee deep and get bored on my days off.

IC is 4A, did you mean Montini?

I think it's interesting that 2A has the smallest range in school sizes, ranging from enrollments of 319 to 417. Not sure how much of a factor that will play in pushing teams up or down.

 

[Wilmatucky]

Yes Montini. My bad. Edited.

 

[Wilmatucky]

IC is 4A, did you mean Montini?

I think it's interesting that 2A has the smallest range in school sizes, ranging from enrollments of 319 to 417. Not sure how much of a factor that will play in pushing teams up or down.

That is a small window. I wonder why it plays out that way. I guess it would be dependent on who the first 32 are to make it, then go up every 32 from there, no?

 

[McEvergreen]

Also don’t know for a fact but rumor in Peotone is Coach Tolle is out for this week. Incident after their game vs Streator. Can anyone confirm? Any Streator fans here?

Is he the head coach?

 

[doctor_d]

I love studying numbers, but I admit I kind of suck at it, especially when there are tons of moving parts like a playoff outlook. I know Dr. D mentioned that Braidwood not qualifying may hurt Wilmington's chance of ending up in 2a. Right now, with the current outlook, it looks like there are 4 schools set to make the playoffs with an enrollment larger than WHS 409.5:
Chicago Crane in at 417
PBL 5-2 (probably a guarantee in) at 415.5
Carlinville and Oregon (4-3, should get in) 412 and 417 respectively

On the flip side there are 3 teams below Braidwood's 445.5 in the current 3a outlook that are locks to get in, or should get in (Duquoin, SJO, Eureka just needs one win). Sherrard, Fairfield and Beardstown could get in, but it'll take them winning the last two weeks against similarly matched opponents.

Richmond-Burton is currently the smallest team in the 4a outlook.

With Byron, Princeton, and montini all in the north of 3a that looks to be a brutal bracket. 2A north is a little harder to predict just because those central IL teams could be border line north and south.

So what does all this mean? I don't know. I'm a pot of coffee deep and get bored on my days off.

R-C taking the L against Manteno hurt Wilmo’s 2A chances simply because they were a team with a larger enrollment than Wilmo that was generally predicted to get in…. and now they are not. Still a lot of games to be played. Wilmo is still firmly on the bubble.

Captain Obvious statement, but the difference between 2A and 3A seems rather large at the top.

 

[Wilmatucky]

R-C taking the L against Manteno hurt Wilmo’s 2A chances simply because they were a team with a larger enrollment than Wilmo that was generally predicted to get in…. and now they are not.

Captain Obvious statement, but the difference between 2A and 3A seems rather large at the top.

How though? If they start at 1a and then count 32 qualifying teams, then the same in 2a. Teams above Wilmington wouldn't matter. Am I missing something?

 

[doctor_d]

How though? If they start at 1a and then count 32 qualifying teams, then the same in 2a. Teams above Wilmington wouldn't matter. Am I missing something?

Because RC was generally considered to be “in” the group of 256 by prognosticators (like Soucie)
They “had a spot” according to the projections. But they lost it because even at 4-5, there’s no way they have enough playoff points.

Now, it’s slightly possible that RCs “spot” in the 256 will get taken by a smaller team.

Because we are talking lower end of the classes, it’s more likely that a larger enrollment school 5-4/4-5 will get it, and net effect would be zero as far as Wilmo is concerned.

 

[siu47]

Is he the head coach?

He is

 

[Coalertown44]

Streator (2-5) @ Reed-Custer (2-5) - Both teams are out of the post season. Time to roll out the basketballs. Braidwood in a but of a shootout. Comets 34 Bulldogs 28

Coal City (5-2) @ Herscher (2-5) - Herscher could be 4-3 right now but a couple of close loses has them outside looking in. Coalers looked absolutely embarrassing last week against the Cats, put up absolutely zero fight. I expect Coach Loughren will have them ready Coalers 31 Tigers 14

Lisle (1-6) @ Peotone - (4-3) - Lisle might be the most down team in the conference right now, 6 straight bad losses in a row. Tone squeaked a comeback win against Streator. Blue Devils 42 Lions 6

Manteno (4-3) @ Wilmington (6-1) - GOTW! Not much of a game of the week. Manteno is an improved team but still not at the top dog level. Wilmington is the best team in a just average conference. Big party in Reentsville Cats 52 Panthers 20

 

[CIMRY90]

That is a small window. I wonder why it plays out that way. I guess it would be dependent on who the first 32 are to make it, then go up every 32 from there, no?

I took a quick look at enrollment in numeric order. In range of 300 to 399 there is approximately 80 schools whereas from 400 to 499 there was approximately 40 schools. As u go up less schools per each 100 range.

 

[doctor_d]

FWIW, Soucie still has Wilmo projected in 2A as the largest enrollment.

 

[SouthofI80FootballFan]

Streator @ Reed-Custer - the Bulldogs have yet again proven that the preseason hype is just that and RC has underperformed expectations. I thought that they would be a playoff team, it near what they wear last year but maybe a 2nd round team with the right draw. Streator has the basketball pumped ready and RC is rolling out the wrestling mats. And the weather won’t make it any better for either team. Streator 12 RC 8

Coal City @ Herscher Coal City coming off a game without a 1st down but they should be able to get one early against Herscher. Too many underclassmen playing for the Tigers but that will pay off in the next few years. Coal City rights the ship and gets a win, but the weather doesn’t help. CC 22 Herscher 0

Lisle @ Peotone - the Devils has a closer game than expected against Streator last week but don’t forger, ending is the real deal and has WRs that can make plays. Peotone what should be 2 wins the last few weeks of the season. Sounds like Lisle has the injury but and has been a struggle this season, and the weather doesn’t help. Peotone 18 Lisle 6

Manteno @ Wilmington - the Wildcats coming off dominant victory and Manteno coming off of the only upset in the ICE this season. Wilmington looks to be a force in 2A or 3A again and Manteno needs a win to get to week 10. Stopping the Wilmington run is very difficult and Manteno has given up some points this season, and the weather doesn’t help. Wilmington 42 Manteno 0

In other news, BCC is the real deal, Monticello might not make the playoffs for the 1st time under Welter, they need an upset over Prairie Central or Tolono, but they could pull off a win in one or both. MF and Williamsville played in a classic last week with MF stealing the game late. Athens is good as well and might knock off MF week 9. Momence fell to BHRA and it wasn’t close in the 2nd half. Tri Valley is the king of the crop in the HOI but their lack of schedule may hurt them come the 2nd round or quarters, but the weather doesn’t help.

 

[McEvergreen]

In other news, BCC is the real deal, Monticello might not make the playoffs for the 1st time under Welter, they need an upset over Prairie Central or Tolono

I would not be surprised if Monticello knocked off one of these two. It's been awhile for BCC. If they remain in 1A and stay healthy, we could see a showdown with L-W.

 

[SouthofI80FootballFan]

I would not be surprised if Monticello knocked off one of these two. It's been awhile for BCC. If they remain in 1A and stay healthy, we could see a showdown with L-W.

I agree with you on Monticello. BCC will soon be the new IC in 2A and 3A the next few years. They should at least be a Semi or final team in 1A. Only team I their way would be Althoff. If they go 2A, they will challenge MF, Wilmington, Tri Valley, and Seneca and quite possibly beat all 4 of those teams.

 

[doctor_d]

I agree with you on Monticello. BCC will soon be the new IC in 2A and 3A the next few years. They should at least be a Semi or final team in 1A. Only team I their way would be Althoff. If they go 2A, they will challenge MF, Wilmington, Tri Valley, and Seneca and quite possibly beat all 4 of those teams.

I believe they still get the waiver, but if they win 2 playoff games this year, they will get multiplied.

If so, 304.5 x 1.65 = 502.4 would be definitely 3A.

I might be wrong about all that. I get confused with the nuances of the multiplier/waiver and the 2 year thing…

 

[McEvergreen]

3A is loaded, but the Cats will be a tough out.

 

[doctor_d]

Week 8 finals

Wilmington 56, Manteno 13
Coal City 45, Herscher 7
Peotone 40, Lisle 0
Reed-Custer 42, Streator 36

 

[4Afan]

3A is loaded, but the Cats will be a tough out.

Latest outlook has teams moving up. Wilmington now the 2nd smallest school in 3A and Morris moves to the smallest school in 5A.

 

[doctor_d]

Latest outlook has teams moving up. Wilmington now the 2nd smallest school in 3A and Morris moves to the smallest school in 5A.

Hopefully it goes the other way, but it is what it is.