East St. Louis week 9
- Thread starter King MJ
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Agree, they need to start seeding by how good a team really is, not wins and points.
They have IC #6 in the state. I prefer the current system at least this way you know what you have to do and no shenanigans can interfere.
Yep. We can't even get basketball coaches to properly seed a sectional they know about two months in advance. Good luck getting football coaches to seed correctly with an hour or two. Then you also have coaches who do not even bother to seed things.
A coach told me once the only teams he knows about are the 9 on his schedule. Honestly I don't even remember who it was, but it stuck with me.
Seeding for basketball is done because it's a SECTIONAL complex, and the 16-19 teams in the sectional, especially in the Chicago area, are all from a close geographic area. Even if Team A hasn't played Team B, it's overwhelmingly likely that Team A has played Teams CDEF and Team B has played Teams CDEF so there is familiarity and a way to compare.
What does anybody know about a team in the NIC-10 or the Fox Valley ... closed conferences. Or the Upstate Eight, where one team dominates every year to the tune of 8-1 or 9-0 but has yet to be a late-November participant.
The current formula works because it's totally objective. There is NO personal opinion by anybody put into it. So going into Week 9 of the season, every. one of the 500 schools playing knows what the playoff situation is, which also is good for interested fans of each team.
I guarentee there will be a 5-4 team at the end of October that has zero business being in the playoffs (hello CPL, for example) but gets in because of a victory Week 9. Imagine Week 9, winning to go to 5-4 or 6-3 but because you play in the CPL, you aren't invited. That becomes subjective which is where problems come up.
Is Nazareth (4 losses to teams a combined 16-0 this fall) gonna take a hit this fall? You bet. But they knew the rules going in. I mean, in terms of a subjective ranking, how many games are they allowed to lose and still make the playoffs? 7? 6? 8?
I do have a question about East St. Louis. Because the Flyers will finish 6-2 and not 7-2 or 6-3, where do they fall in the list of qualified teams. Are they seeded ahead of all 6-3 teams in the southern half of the state with a 6-2 mark, or are all 6-win teams created equal and they get aligned for seeding purposes by the proverbial "playoff points" system. In that case, East St. Louis could likely be seeded worse than many 6-3 teams because they will only get playoff points from 8 opponents' wins and not 9.
What does anybody know about a team in the NIC-10 or the Fox Valley ... closed conferences. Or the Upstate Eight, where one team dominates every year to the tune of 8-1 or 9-0 but has yet to be a late-November participant.
The current formula works because it's totally objective. There is NO personal opinion by anybody put into it. So going into Week 9 of the season, every. one of the 500 schools playing knows what the playoff situation is, which also is good for interested fans of each team.
I guarentee there will be a 5-4 team at the end of October that has zero business being in the playoffs (hello CPL, for example) but gets in because of a victory Week 9. Imagine Week 9, winning to go to 5-4 or 6-3 but because you play in the CPL, you aren't invited. That becomes subjective which is where problems come up.
Is Nazareth (4 losses to teams a combined 16-0 this fall) gonna take a hit this fall? You bet. But they knew the rules going in. I mean, in terms of a subjective ranking, how many games are they allowed to lose and still make the playoffs? 7? 6? 8?
I do have a question about East St. Louis. Because the Flyers will finish 6-2 and not 7-2 or 6-3, where do they fall in the list of qualified teams. Are they seeded ahead of all 6-3 teams in the southern half of the state with a 6-2 mark, or are all 6-win teams created equal and they get aligned for seeding purposes by the proverbial "playoff points" system. In that case, East St. Louis could likely be seeded worse than many 6-3 teams because they will only get playoff points from 8 opponents' wins and not 9.
And another thing. There are people on this site who seem to frown strongly on high school football teams winning 67-0 or 92-0 or by similar ridiculous scores.
Isn't winning 70-0 going to impress "Massey" or whatever computer system is used as opposed to a team that is up 40-0 at halftime and winds up winning 40-14 because at 40-0 ahead you can't lose and so the second half is played by the winning team with reserves?
Isn't winning 70-0 going to impress "Massey" or whatever computer system is used as opposed to a team that is up 40-0 at halftime and winds up winning 40-14 because at 40-0 ahead you can't lose and so the second half is played by the winning team with reserves?
Is there any other program in the state "guaranteed" to run the rest of the table?
If I am Eville, I am pissed! (BTW - has Iose played this year?)
It goes, wins, then playoff points. They aren't necessarily ahead or behind any 6-3 teams.
In that case, there are going to be 6-3 teams in the south seeded ahead of East St. Louis (assuming the Flyers run the table to get to 6-2) because the Flyers will get opponents wins (AKA playoff points) from 8 teams and not 9. In a 16-team south grouping, that's almost certainly going to put the Flyers in the 9-16 spot rather than the 1-8 spot.
So yes, it would appear that some team that had a wonderful season and went 7-2 or 8-1 is going to take the. "hit" in Round 1 of the playoffs.
The computer models are very sophisticated. They greatly diminish the value of scoring margins greater than 30 points and entirely ignore scoring margins greater than 40 points.
Additionally, if you look at Massey's predictions as an example, the software doesn't simply subtract the lower rating from the higher rating. Massey rarely predicts a game to be won by more than 49 points, even when the difference between the two ratings might be 80 points. The software caps the scoring margin on the assumption the team that is ahead will make efforts to minimize the scoring differential. There are a small handful of teams, such as Peoria, that will almost always exceed Massey's point spread when they are a heavy favorite. (Please note this second paragraph has nothing to do with seeding.)
With all of the above being said, I'm not an advocate for using computers to seed teams. For one thing, I wouldn't want to listen to all of the complaining by teams and fans when they felt their team had been seeded unfairly. The transparency of the current system is a good thing.
Wouldn't it actually be playoff points from 7 opponents, not 8? I don't think they get playoff points for out of state opponents. Or do they?
Who was the team from MO? Regardless, do they get playoff points from out of state opponents?
Out of state foes’ wins count for an ihsa team for games through the final Saturday of the ihsa season ip to a max of 9 games. So if team from texas is 7/2 for example on final Saturday of our season then flyers woujd get 7 points.
My point is flyers will only get opponent wins points from 8 schools and not 9. That is not a benefit for the flyers playoff points and could drop them down the list of 6 win teams in their half of 6a.
My point is flyers will only get opponent wins points from 8 schools and not 9. That is not a benefit for the flyers playoff points and could drop them down the list of 6 win teams in their half of 6a.
Doesn’t matter where you end up you still have to play. Home or on the road.
You are missing the point of the discussion. Which started as, because of the IHSA seeding process, East St. Louis will have a seed as a 6-win team with fewer opponent victories than they should have because of an 8-game schedule.
As a result, the Flyers will receive a seed poorer than would be the result if they finished 7-2. I suggest the team might even wind up with a double-digit seed in the southern 16-team 6A grouping.
That is not a thing for the Flyers to worry about. I fully expect them to be playing on Thanksgiving weekend.
The original point, which I agree with, is that because of the seeding process, some 6A team in the southern half of the state with perhaps an 8-1 record could draw the Flyers in the very first round and be out rather than drawing a weaker 6-win opponent and have an opportunity to advance a round or two, which is what you would expect to happen if you had an 8-1 season.
No one is worried about East St. Louis' seeding position if you're a Flyers fan. They could be a 16 seed and would still be the favorite to win 6A.
The point that the original poster was making is that some team is going to catch a bad break in the draw through no fault of their own. They could actually be penalized (by drawing the Flyers in the round of 32) for winning too many games this fall.
And that's an unfortunate result of the system.
I direct you to the thread in which a St. Rita fan, knowing his team can't play with Mt. Carmel, says he's hoping that in the draw, that the Mustangs stay away from the Caravan for a few rounds so they can get playoff experience and enjoy the moments that come with winning football in November.
The "rat" knows whom I am referring to as a lock to "run the table". He ought to know; the Cyclones play them every year. And, NO, it's not Lanphier!
That happens every year with multiple CCL teams. We always see first round matchups with 5-4 or 6-3 CCL teams that everyone knows are going to destroy the 9-0/8-1 teams they are playing.
Other posters here will know... How many 5-4 CCL teams have won state championships?
I belive Montini, IC, Naz and JCA are the only teams to win a state title with 4 losses.
Yeah it was pretty obvious to most I would assume... Baby Leonard don't lose much weeks 10 thru 15...
I suppose they'll always be those that are dissatisfied with how it goes... If ESL in the title game is inevitable, then why does who and where matter? Isn't that the point we're really glossing over? The flyer fan was simply stating they don't care who, or when, or why... They'll show up and play, and likely win.
It's your enemies that spend their waking hours trying to dismantle your success. Luckily your boys just keep showing up and showing out! That's what we like to see!
All I'm saying is I don't remember any discussions about Rochester* in 2011 or 2014... and how they have an advantage or were going to ruin someone's year when they entered the 4A playoffs with 2 losses and played outside the 1 or 2 seed in the 4A south brackets... but I guess we should expect it when it's an inner-city program like ESL, huh? Everyone needs a reason (excuse) for when they lose.
You're looking for an argument that isn't there. As I posted earlier, it happens with the private teams every season. I'm from a 5A town, and have family living in 3A thru 6A towns. Right or wrong, there is plenty of complaining when the 3 or 4 loss Montini, Naz, Providence, etc. show up in round 1 against the 9-0, 8-1 "small town" team. (Not trying to start a public/private debate, just pointing out that ESL isn't unique when it comes to seeding issues).
yes but they aren't 'inner city' so RoaminCatholic won't be white knighting for them anytime soon.
40 posts in and no-one has answered the question. Does this mean ESL doesn't have a week 9 game yet?
Correct, they do not have a week 9 opponent. Last game is Oct. 13 against Edwardsville.
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