Do Naz and Provi get in at 4-5?

[RameyJacoby]

4-5 and win a game I don't see it on the Record and History page of IHSA, but I could be wrong but i do see teams making it at 5-4 and being successful. Naz ran the tables and PC almost did the same. CCL needs to rethink these conferences it sucks that good teams go thru a gauntlet of a schedule IMO.

 

[brucealmighy]

So with 5 wins Rita is in with 50 pts. With 4 wins BR has 49, PC 48 and Naz 48. Is this year seem a little weird?. In the past how many 4-5 teams have gotten in.? Has a 4-5 ever won a playoff game? Anyone know what the lowest playoff point total for a 5 win team to get in.

Only 1 at large team has made the playoffs at 4-5. It was Buffalo Grove last year and they had to play at Mt. Carmel

 

[cigaros]

4-5 and win a game I don't see it on the Record and History page of IHSA, but I could be wrong but i do see teams making it at 5-4 and being successful. Naz ran the tables and PC almost did the same. CCL needs to rethink these conferences it sucks that good teams go thru a gauntlet of a schedule IMO.

JCA actually won the title at 10-4 in the mid 2018

 

[LakeCtyNewt]

From the looks of it it’s real close to there being enough 5-4 teams. We are close but no more than 1-2 4-5 gets in. PC and Naz would do well to win and not worry about it

 

[ScottieKnows]

Mathematically.....not impossible....but highly unlikely just counting up the 4-4s and remaining spots available.

 

[cornerrat]

So with 5 wins Rita is in with 50 pts. With 4 wins BR has 49, PC 48 and Naz 48. Is this year seem a little weird?. In the past how many 4-5 teams have gotten in.? Has a 4-5 ever won a playoff game? Anyone know what the lowest playoff point total for a 5 win team to get in.

All.... Did a quick research. It looks like it was Agro in 2022 with 30 pts. On the flip side in 2011 the pp's cut level was crazy. 13 5-4 teams had 40 but only 12 got in. Rockford Christian did not make it losing a coin toss to Princeville for the last spot. That season including the Royal Lions 25 5-4's did not make it in. Ratsy

 

[LakeCtyNewt]

Right now there are 73 teams at 4-4. If you base it on how many each class needs to fill the gap left after you set the five win teams this is how it shakes out.

1A - needs five more 5 win teams
2A - needs six more 5 win teams
3A - needs 4 more
4A - needs 3
5A - needs 5
6A - needs 4
7A - needs 5
8A - needs 4

Based on this math there are 35 open non-five win spots left for currently 73 4 win teams.

That indicates the math is not in favor of a 4-5 team making it but it will be very close. A large number of 4 win teams are playing teams with much better records - over half.

Of chalk holds then we could see 3 or 4 4 win teams make it.

The other dynamic to watch is teams rising or falling. If a bunch of 4 win teams make it you could see very little movement. If no 4 win teams make it you could see a number of teams rise.

Can’t remember a Friday night this fascinating in a long time.

 

[lurker74]

We'll see about this season, but unless the overall trend of fewer and fewer schools playing 11-man football changes, 4-5 making it will become normal. There was a post the other day listing how many 11-man schools there have been throughout the last few decades, but I can't remember which thread.

 

[olderbytheminute]

Right now there are 73 teams at 4-4. If you base it on how many each class needs to fill the gap left after you set the five win teams this is how it shakes out.

1A - needs five more 5 win teams
2A - needs six more 5 win teams
3A - needs 4 more
4A - needs 3
5A - needs 5
6A - needs 4
7A - needs 5
8A - needs 4

Based on this math there are 35 open non-five win spots left for currently 73 4 win teams.

That indicates the math is not in favor of a 4-5 team making it but it will be very close. A large number of 4 win teams are playing teams with much better records - over half.

Of chalk holds then we could see 3 or 4 4 win teams make it.

The other dynamic to watch is teams rising or falling. If a bunch of 4 win teams make it you could see very little movement. If no 4 win teams make it you could see a number of teams rise.

Can’t remember a Friday night this fascinating in a long time.

There may be 73 4-‘em teams but there are 7 games where 4-4 plays 4-4 which means 7 more teams are assured of 5 wins and 7 will finish 4-5.
So really there are by your math 59 4-4 teams playing for a chance to get to 5 wins.
I personally don’t think a 4-5 will get in this year other than the south suburb league where a 4-5 team could win its conference. Right me that team 3-5 and has zero chance of qualifying if it doesn’t win its league.

 

[LakeCtyNewt]

There may be 73 4-‘em teams but there are 7 games where 4-4 plays 4-4 which means 7 more teams are assured of 5 wins and 7 will finish 4-5.
So really there are by your math 59 4-4 teams playing for a chance to get to 5 wins.
I personally don’t think a 4-5 will get in this year other than the south suburb league where a 4-5 team could win its conference. Right me that team 3-5 and has zero chance of qualifying if it doesn’t win its league.

My strong suit is not math so appreciate the data!

 

[olderbytheminute]

My strong suit is not math so appreciate the data!

I believe the universally agreed upon stat is that this weekend, 59 4-4 teams will be playing for 29 spots as 220 have already been claimed with 5 or more wins and 7 others will go to winners of 4-4 vs. 4-4 games.
The pct. of 4-4 teams playing foes with losing records is just under 50 pct. and obviously 4-4 teams playing foes with 5-3, 6-2 or 7-1 records is just slightly more than half (no 8-0 teams are playing a 4-4 team this week).
So, clearly, the number of teams that have 5 wins on Saturday evening is going to be right around 256 ... could be just over or could be just under.
If it's over 256, the 5-win team with the fewest "playoff points" (wins by its nine opponents) will get bounced.
If it's under 256, the 4-win team with the most "playoff points" will make the playoffs.
And because many of the Chicago Catholic League/East Suburban Catholic Conference teams are involved in the 4-5/5-4 discussion, it's added intrigue to the end of a season that has lacked a lot of intrigue.
So in that regard, as someone who doesn't have a connection to the Catholic League, this has helped build my interest in the sport this fall.
And though it's worth nothing, my two cents on 5-4/4-5 playoff teams is that no 4-5 team will get in.
And note that I also thought Notre Dame was headed for the college football playoffs, so don't trust my feel this 4-5/5-4 thing.

 

[mchsalumni]

My strong suit is not math so appreciate the data!

Montini won it going in 5-4 as well, not sure the year, but 2009 maybe? Anyone from JCA remember that title game? @JCHILLTOPPERS @JCHillmen

 

[cigaros]

Montini won it going in 5-4 as well, not sure the year, but 2009 maybe? Anyone from JCA remember that title game? @JCHILLTOPPERS @JCHillmen

Records & History

2009

 

[mchsalumni]

Records & History

2009

I guess I should learn to use sarcastic font.

 

[cigaros]

I guess I should learn to use sarcastic font.

And now you have the resource to find the answers you need in the future. Personally, I think 6 wins should be the qualifier and clincher. 5-4 teams are a series separated from 4-5 teams. Whereas 6-3 teams are a game and a series separated. I think it would also shrink the classes and make the competition better. At least until the IHSA agrees to go 1-32 for ALL classes. This will force the 5-4 teams to truly play their way into a potential final and gives the playoffs the true edge needed.

 

[mchsalumni]

And now you have the resource to find the answers you need in the future.

I didn't need the resource, I knew the details. Take a peek at my profile pic. Guess what game that's from? So now I need to explain every comment, perfect.

 

[King MJ]

Looking at the Outlook and the Predictors, if all goes as anticipated, I see THREE 4-5 teams.

Brother Rice
Naz
Woodstock Marian

I hope I'm wrong and zero 4-5 teams get in.

Do you have Hoffman Estates beating Fremd? I think Fremd should be ahead of Naz.

Also, Can't see Marian getting in at 4-5. Lots of other 4-5 teams will have 50 or more points

 

[Irish LB]

Do you have Hoffman Estates beating Fremd? I think Fremd should be ahead of Naz.

Also, Can't see Marian getting in at 4-5. Lots of other 4-5 teams will have 50 or more points

Same amount of points as of today.

Edit: What are tiebreaker scenarios?

Fremd seems destined to finish with 53 points if they win and get to 4-5.

If Naz loses and ends at 4-5 I would think they get more than 5. 4 would seem like a certainty and then Kankakee, Montini, Ignatius and Rice would have tossup games (more or less).

 

[King MJ]

For reference, all 3-5 teams with a chance to get more than 50 points

glenbrook south 46
Taft 47
Fremd 48
Herrin 45
Bolingbrook 46

 

[JCHillmen]

Records & History

2009

Yes in 2009 a four loss Montini team had no business beating a more talented JC team and stealing a championship.. IN 2018, a four loss JC beat a more talented Montini team that they had no business defeating, thus returning the favor and stealing a championship.

It doesn't make up for the fact Montini ended JC's season 5 of 6 years from 2009 to 2014, but it was cathartic for the Hilltopper faithful to close that chapter of the MCHS-JC rivalry by stealing victory from the jaws of defeat after several times where the opposite was true and they were unable to close, even with commanding leads.

 

[mchsalumni]

Yes in 2009 a four loss Montini team had no business beating a more talented JC team and stealing a championship.. IN 2018, a four loss JC beat a more talented Montini team that they had no business defeating, thus returning the favor and stealing a championship.

It doesn't make up for the fact Montini ended JC's season 5 of 6 years from 2009 to 2014, but it was cathartic for the Hilltopper faithful to close that chapter of the MCHS-JC rivalry by stealing victory from the jaws of defeat after several times where the opposite was true and they were unable to close, even with commanding leads.

Loved it all, the good and the bad!

 

[JCHillmen]

Loved it all, the good and the bad!

Agree. It was a lot of fun and good football (aside from the defenses in 2011).

2009 was JC fumbling too many times to let Montini back in.
2010 was JC dominating Montini in week 1 but then losing to a far less talented Richwoods team in the quarters so the title game rematch never happened.
2011 was the offensive explosion where JC led 31-28 at half and then Montini exploded in the second half.
2012 JC had a 17 point lead in the fourth quarter and still found a way to lose
2013 may have been the best game of them all.
2014 was a fairly pedestrian game where Montini was clearly better than JC.
And 2018 was where all Montini had to do was run the ball in the third quarter to go up two scores to seal the win and instead throws an INT into the very strong JC secondary. All of this after they were able to run roughshod over the JC front 7 in the first half.

Fun stuff across the board.....

 

[mchsalumni]

Agree. It was a lot of fun and good football (aside from the defenses in 2011).

2009 was JC fumbling too many times to let Montini back in.
2010 was JC dominating Montini in week 1 but then losing to a far less talented Richwoods team in the quarters so the title game rematch never happened.
2011 was the offensive explosion where JC led 31-28 at half and then Montini exploded in the second half.
2012 JC had a 17 point lead in the fourth quarter and still found a way to lose
2013 may have been the best game of them all.
2014 was a fairly pedestrian game where Montini was clearly better than JC.
And 2018 was where all Montini had to do was run the ball in the third quarter to go up two scores to seal the win and instead throws an INT into the very strong JC secondary. All of this after they were able to run roughshod over the JC front 7 in the first half.

Fun stuff across the board.....

2013 was a banger. The 2011 game was just wild.

 

[olderbytheminute]

2011—Montini 70, Joliet Catholic 45.
Jordan Westerkamp had 12 catches for nearly 350 yards and 5 TDs for the winners.
Montini QB John Rhode passed for 587 yards and 7 scores for the winners.
Ty Isaac had 515 yards rushing and 6 TDs for the losers.
Watching on TV, I was certain we were watching future NFL players, but I was wrong.
Westerkamp had a nice career as a wideout at Nebraska, and I think he caught a Hail Mary pass to beat Northwestern one year.
Isaac went bust as a freshman at USC, then transferred to Michigan where he had I believe some success before injuries I think derailed his career. I thought I saw his name pop up in the XFL or USFL but not sure.
Rhode wound up as successful QB at an NAIA school in Chicago.
I would guess that some of the numbers posted by individuals and teams in that game will never be broken.

 

[MIKEFTB]

The Southwest Prairie East could be won by 3-5 Plainfield East from what I see. They are 3-1 in conference and should move to 4-1 with a win over Romeoville. They also need 3-1 Plainfield Central to defeat 4-0 Joliet West to force a three-way tie in conference.
Plainfield East defeated Central earlier in the season but lost to Joliet West, so this would come down to point allowed against each other. In that scenario, East has pretty good odds of taking the bid at 4-

Yes in 2009 a four loss Montini team had no business beating a more talented JC team and stealing a championship.. IN 2018, a four loss JC beat a more talented Montini team that they had no business defeating, thus returning the favor and stealing a championship.

It doesn't make up for the fact Montini ended JC's season 5 of 6 years from 2009 to 2014, but it was cathartic for the Hilltopper faithful to close that chapter of the MCHS-JC rivalry by stealing victory from the jaws of defeat after several times where the opposite was true and they were unable to close, even with commanding leads.

But was Cherry's field goal attenpt for JCA vs Bolingbrook in '93 really wide?

 

[Blue KevIL]

After Thursday Night's games, there are 225 teams with at least 5 wins.

That leaves 31 "open" slots for the 256-team field.

66 teams enter Friday of Week 9 with a 4-4 record.
14 of these 4-4 teams play other 4-4 teams resulting in 7 teams making it to the 5-win mark.

That will now leave 24 "open" slots for the 256-team field.

This leaves 52 other 4-4 teams for these 24 remaining slots.
25 of the 4-4 teams play against teams with a record of 3-5 or worse.
27 of the 4-4 teams play against teams with a record of 5-3 or better.

Seems unlikely that any 4-5 teams will make it this year.
And it also seems possible that there will be at least one (and maybe several) 5-4 team(s) that do not make it this year either.

Tough math for teams without 5 wins and for those with 5 wins & low playoff point totals.

 

[USD24]

But was Cherry's field goal attenpt for JCA vs Bolingbrook in '93 really wide?

The goal posts were college goal posts, therefore narrower than high school ones. Cost the Hillmen a victory.

 

[stl705]

After Thursday Night's games, there are 225 teams with at least 5 wins.

That leaves 31 "open" slots for the 256-team field.

66 teams enter Friday of Week 9 with a 4-4 record.
14 of these 4-4 teams play other 4-4 teams resulting in 7 teams making it to the 5-win mark.

That will now leave 24 "open" slots for the 256-team field.

This leaves 52 other 4-4 teams for these 24 remaining slots.
25 of the 4-4 teams play against teams with a record of 3-5 or worse.
27 of the 4-4 teams play against teams with a record of 5-3 or better.

Seems unlikely that any 4-5 teams will make it this year.
And it also seems possible that there will be at least one (and maybe several) 5-4 team(s) that do not make it this year either.

Tough math for teams without 5 wins and for those with 5 wins & low playoff point totals.

Does this account for the CPS schools with 5 wins who are not eligible? I thought i read something like 3 teams (CPS Nobles, etc) that can’t get in with 5 wins?

Anyone have clarification on that?

 

[epicbret]

I guess I should learn to use sarcastic font.

/sarcasm works too

 

[epicbret]

The goal posts were college goal posts, therefore narrower than high school ones. Cost the Hillmen a victory.

[Clutches letterman jacket]

 

[USD24]

[Clutches letterman jacket]

Huh?

 

[Blue KevIL]

Does this account for the CPS schools with 5 wins who are not eligible? I thought i read something like 3 teams (CPS Nobles, etc) that can’t get in with 5 wins?

Anyone have clarification on that?

The 25 ineligible schools from the CPS Blue divisions are excluded from my numbers.

 

[olderbytheminute]

Does this account for the CPS schools with 5 wins who are not eligible? I thought i read something like 3 teams (CPS Nobles, etc) that can’t get in with 5 wins?

Anyone have clarification on that?

Thursday Games Involving 4-4 teams eligible for playoffs:
Englewood STEM (now 5-4) beat Comer (now 2-7)
Fairfield (5-4) beat Edwards County (2-7)
Lemont (5-4) beat Thornton Fractional North (7-2) (this one definitely hurt teams wanting to get in at 4-5)
Tinley Park (5-4) beat Oak Forest (2-7)
Reavis (4-5) lost to Richards (7-2)
Sullivan (4-5) lost to North Lawndale (8-1)
Argo (5-4) beat Thornton Fractional South (3-6)

We started Week 9 with 220 teams with 5 or more wins.
7 Week 9 games are 4-4 team vs. 4-4 team and somebody has to win.
That is 227 total for sure.
On Thursday, teams with 4-4 records posted a 5-2 mark. However, only one 4-4 team beat a team with a winning record.
So, we now have 232 teams with 5 wins ... needing 24 teams to fill out the 256-team playoff field.

On Saturday, while our eyes are on Loyola/Mt. Carmel, note that these games involving 4-4 teams will likely decide the 4-5/5-4 issue:
Chicago Golder (4-4) vs. Chicago Mulcher (3-5)
Chicago Ag Science (4-4) vs. Chicago Little Village (3-5)
Bremen (4-4) vs. Hillcrest (6-2)
Chicago King (4-4) vs. Chicago Carver (3-4)

1 Final Thing To Watch For:
On Friday, Plainfield Central (4-4) plays Joliet West (7-1)
On Friday, Plainfield East (3-5) plays Romeoville (1-7)
Plainfield East is going to win almost certainly to finish 4-1 in its conference.
If Plainfield Central beats Joliet West, then Plainfield is 5-4 but will have a playoff points total in the low 30s
If Plainfield Central beats Joliet West, then Plainfield East is almost certainly going to win the conference's three-way tie at 4-1 based on point differential in head-to-head games. East is a plus-6, If Joliet loses, it will be plus-1 or worse. If Central wins, it would have to win by at least 14 points to get to a plus-6.
So, if Joliet West wins, they are the champs and the only team in the league with at least 5 wins. They have already qualified for Week 10.
If Plainfield Central and Plainfield East win, Plainfield Central will have 5 wins and Plainfield East will have a 4-5 record but will likely be the league champ. That would be a dagger for 4-5 hopefuls around the state.

 

[Formicidae13]

Does this account for the CPS schools with 5 wins who are not eligible? I thought i read something like 3 teams (CPS Nobles, etc) that can’t get in with 5 wins?

Anyone have clarification on that?

Soucie says King, Sullivan, Noble/Golder and Rowe/Clark are ineligible

 

[olderbytheminute]

Soucie says King, Sullivan, Noble/Golder and Rowe/Clark are ineligible

King, Sullivan, Noble/Golder and Rowe/Clark all play in the CPL WHITE Division. It is the BLUE Division that is NOT eligible for the playoffs, according to the IHSA website. Therefore, I believe all White Division teams are eligible for the playoffs.
Not only that, but in the IHSA playoff outlook, all those teams are listed as being potential playoff teams going into Week 9.

 

[cigaros]

Does this account for the CPS schools with 5 wins who are not eligible? I thought i read something like 3 teams (CPS Nobles, etc) that can’t get in with 5 wins?

Anyone have clarification on that?

This should answer all of your questions.

State Series Information & Results | Football | IHSA Sports & Activities

 

[stl705]

This should answer all of your questions.

State Series Information & Results | Football | IHSA Sports & Activities

Thank you Cigaros. I just looked and these are the rules:

1. At the request of the Chicago Public League, only the teams in the eight "Illini" divisions are eligible for the IHSA playoffs.

Now looking at the conference page, there is no mention of “Illini” division. Smh.

Edit: ok as mentioned the Illini is the Blue divisions. Those CPS schools appear to be eligible.

 

[Formicidae13]

King, Sullivan, Noble/Golder and Rowe/Clark all play in the CPL WHITE Division. It is the BLUE Division that is NOT eligible for the playoffs, according to the IHSA website. Therefore, I believe all White Division teams are eligible for the playoffs.
Not only that, but in the IHSA playoff outlook, all those teams are listed as being potential playoff teams going into Week 9.

He said something to the effect that now White Division teams need to finish something like top two or three to be allowed to qualify.

 

[epicbret]

Huh?

It's a joke. That fact hurt you as an alum, you'd have your hand over your chest, and in turn the letterman coat we HS fans all proverbially wear.

Like if you brought up Jon Budmayr I'd do the same.

 

[rocketnation]

Agree. It was a lot of fun and good football (aside from the defenses in 2011).

2009 was JC fumbling too many times to let Montini back in.
2010 was JC dominating Montini in week 1 but then losing to a far less talented Richwoods team in the quarters so the title game rematch never happened.
2011 was the offensive explosion where JC led 31-28 at half and then Montini exploded in the second half.
2012 JC had a 17 point lead in the fourth quarter and still found a way to lose
2013 may have been the best game of them all.
2014 was a fairly pedestrian game where Montini was clearly better than JC.
And 2018 was where all Montini had to do was run the ball in the third quarter to go up two scores to seal the win and instead throws an INT into the very strong JC secondary. All of this after they were able to run roughshod over the JC front 7 in the first half.

Fun stuff across the board.....

Still can't accept that JCA lost to Montini in 2011 while rushing for 747 yards. For 3 quarters, that was the most exciting high school game I've ever seen.