Class 3A Teams to Beat in 2018?

[Wilmatucky]

Not stepping on Edgy's toes, but trying to come up with a list to start discussion about the top teams in 3A. IC going up a class due to success factor really opens up the field and may give some perennial powers a shot at a title.

In no particular order:

Wilmington (not just home cooking)- Lost some guys but always do a great job reloading. RB Dempsey is a freak athlete and has experience at QB as well.

Byron- Always makes a decent run in the playoffs. Physical team that will pop you in the mouth.

Williamsville- Close to the North/South cutoff, but south would probably suit them better. Coach Kunz always has his squad well prepared.

Pleasant Plains- Could be close to N/S cut as well. South would suit them better. Play in a damn tough conference and will be battle tested by playoffs.

Who else will be tough? Who did I miss? Any monsters have a chance of dropping to 3A? In years past I would say that 3A was just as tough as 4A top to bottom, but last year I was really impressed with the overall depth of 4A. At least for the first time in 3 years there is no clear favorite (yet) that serves as a roadblock.

 

[EdgyTim]

Not stepping on Edgy's toes, but trying to come up with a list to start discussion about the top teams in 3A. IC going up a class due to success factor really opens up the field and may give some perennial powers a shot at a title.

In no particular order:

Wilmington (not just home cooking)- Lost some guys but always do a great job reloading. RB Dempsey is a freak athlete and has experience at QB as well.

Byron- Always makes a decent run in the playoffs. Physical team that will pop you in the mouth.

Williamsville- Close to the North/South cutoff, but south would probably suit them better. Coach Kunz always has his squad well prepared.

Pleasant Plains- Could be close to N/S cut as well. South would suit them better. Play in a damn tough conference and will be battle tested by playoffs.

Who else will be tough? Who did I miss? Any monsters have a chance of dropping to 3A? In years past I would say that 3A was just as tough as 4A top to bottom, but last year I was really impressed with the overall depth of 4A. At least for the first time in 3 years there is no clear favorite (yet) that serves as a roadblock.

Step away brother no worries

 

[BBCHS77]

Monticello, SJO

 

[Wilmatucky]

Step away brother no worries

Lol I just consider myself more of small school guy so just trying to get some chatter going. I’ll probably be watching minooka a little more this year though.

 

[Wilmatucky]

Monticello, SJO

Ya SJO always tough. Monticello never impressed me much. Same with Farmington and elmwood.

 

[BBCHS77]

If B Mac gets a new coach and drops to 3A, they could be a load..

 

[rfb321]

If B Mac gets a new coach and drops to 3A, they could be a load..

No need to drop to 3A as they were never 4A. But, yes, I agree. with IC out of the picture for the next two years, B Mac is the top private 3A in the state and they are due to rebound

 

[BBCHS77]

No need to drop to 3A as they were never 4A. But, yes, I agree. with IC out of the picture for the next two years, B Mac is the top private 3A in the state and they are due to rebound

They have been in 4A most of the last 15-20 years, correct?

 

[rfb321]

They have been in 4A most of the last 15-20 years, correct?

Ben a 3a/4a bubble team since 2012 due to drop in enrollment. 3A the last three years. Won 3A in 2015. Did not qualify the last two years, but would have been 3A. I don't see a spike in enrollment, so they should stay in 3A next season

 

[chirocal44]

Wilmington looks to be on top in 3a, very tough kids and a solid program year after year, keep Byron and pleasant plains in mind, they are both very well coached teams with solid lower levels. B Mac looks to be a couple of years away from 3a contention.

 

[BBCHS77]

Ben a 3a/4a bubble team since 2012 due to drop in enrollment. 3A the last three years. Won 3A in 2015. Did not qualify the last two years, but would have been 3A. I don't see a spike in enrollment, so they should stay in 3A next season

They would have been 4A this past season with an enrollment of 556.05, Unity was smallest 4A at 556.. thus my comment "if they drop down".

 

[Wilmatucky]

Mac can be a top team in 3a, and I've also seen them as an average team. Can be tough to judge sometimes because I am unfamiliar with some of the private schools they play in the regular season.

 

[Wilmatucky]

With IC gone Wilmo/Byron quarter or semi game rivalry should be alive and well for 2 years.

 

[BBCHS77]

I think Herscher has the potential to be a top 10 in 3A if thats where they land, probably shelve the 4 wide for a few years.. could be 6-3 team that an 8-1 team from another conference doesn't want to play.

 

[Wilmatucky]

How close was Herscher last year? Historically speaking, they would probably fare pretty well in south 3A if that is where they would end up.

 

[BBCHS77]

Last year cutoff was 556, next year HHS is going to be 540..

And a=guessing no chance 3A South as SJO, Unity etc have always been the north/south bubble schools..

 

[Wilmatucky]

Is Klein leaving herscher?

 

[BBCHS77]

Is Klein leaving herscher?

Yeah, going to be back at Reed Custer

 

[Wilmatucky]

Yeah, going to be back at Reed Custer

What are your thoughts on that? Is that why they are changing their offensive plan? I have met him a few times and he seems like a good guy. I think in RC he got a bad break as the head coach, but he obviously didn't have much to work with there.

 

[BBCHS77]

I think the strength of the team will be Dorsey/Koranda running the ball and line depth, last two years we had All-State QBs, this fall we wont..

 

[Wilmatucky]

I think the strength of the team will be Dorsey/Koranda running the ball and line depth, last two years we had All-State QBs, this fall we wont..

I don't see them being able to run on the powers of the I-8.

 

[BBCHS77]

I don't see them being able to run on the powers of the I-8.

Ok, I disagree

 

[PanthersWildcats86]

If B Mac gets a new coach and drops to 3A, they could be a load..

If and when RIch Z decides to retire, the effects are likely to ripple throughout the area...Herscher's staff has a number of Mac alums on it who might be interested in the job...Former Mac QB Brian Hassett, assuming Streator continues to develop, could be interested...Realistically, Zinanni should have retired after winning the title in 2015.

And Zinanni's departure would also affect the rest of the school dramatically. I know former Irish coaches and administrators who left because Zinanni's influence was took much to handle, even though Z had nothing to do with their jobs. And the junior high coaches seem to have similar opinions, even though it is only the second year of Mac being the middle & high school...

 

[BBCHS77]

If and when RIch Z decides to retire, the effects are likely to ripple throughout the area...Herscher's staff has a number of Mac alums on it who might be interested in the job...Former Mac QB Brian Hassett, assuming Streator continues to develop, could be interested...Realistically, Zinanni should have retired after winning the title in 2015.

And Zinanni's departure would also affect the rest of the school dramatically. I know former Irish coaches and administrators who left because Zinanni's influence was took much to handle, even though Z had nothing to do with their jobs. And the junior high coaches seem to have similar opinions, even though it is only the second year of Mac being the middle & high school...

Maybe, but I think either is unlikely

 

[Cat Box]

What happened to Stillman Valley? Always a top 3A squad with state titles to show for it?

 

[Cat Box]

Aurora Christian was a 3A squad from 2009 - 2016, dropped to 2A last year and lost the multiplier (has not won a playoff game since 2013) for the 2018 season and will drop to 1A. Expect them to win a playoff game this year and earn the multiplier back. Will be a 2A/3A bubble team per enrollment.

Good looking pipeline of kids coming up and some larger classes. I predict a 3A state championship in the fall 2020 season. You heard it here first.

 

[BBCHS77]

Aurora Christian was a 3A squad from 2009 - 2016, dropped to 2A last year and lost the multiplier (has not won a playoff game since 2013) for the 2018 season and will drop to 1A. Expect them to win a playoff game this year and earn the multiplier back. Will be a 2A/3A bubble team per enrollment.

Good looking pipeline of kids coming up and some larger classes. I predict a 3A state championship in the fall 2020 season. You heard it here first.

10 sophs and 9 freshmen in the program last year, tough sledding in 3A

 

[Cat Box]

10 sophs and 9 freshmen in the program last year, tough sledding in 3A

About 20 football players in the 8th grade coming up - its a big class by AC standards. The current 8th and 9th graders have been playing together for a long time - have never lost a football game since 6th/7th grade. They put a running clock on almost every Aurora Jr. High team by halftime - big public schools. Teams quitting by halftime or cancelling games. When current 8th graders are Juniors (2020) they will be very competitive in 3A. Big and talented 7th grade class also. AC will be very good in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

 

[Wilmatucky]

What happened to Stillman Valley? Always a top 3A squad with state titles to show for it?

I think they are just down as of late. I don't think playing in the Big Northern helps them either.

 

[Cat Box]

I think they are just down as of late. I don't think playing in the Big Northern helps them either.

The Big Northern is a great football conference. Lots of strong programs and quality rivalries.

 

[BBCHS77]

About 20 football players in the 8th grade coming up - its a big class by AC standards. The current 8th and 9th graders have been playing together for a long time - have never lost a football game since 6th/7th grade. They put a running clock on almost every Aurora Jr. High team by halftime - big public schools. Teams quitting by halftime or cancelling games. When current 8th graders are Juniors (2020) they will be very competitive in 3A. Big and talented 7th grade class also. AC will be very good in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Maybe the best running back we ever had in youth football never played varsity, a lot can change as kids develop.

 

[jwarigaku]

He’s talking about an entire class not a single individual.

Maybe the best running back we ever had in youth football never played varsity, a lot can change as kids develop.

 

[BBCHS77]

He’s talking about an entire class not a single individual.

Judging high school varsity based on youth football is a foolish endeavor, that was the point...

Kankakee County had 3 varsity/junior high teams go undefeated last fall... is that 3 state champions in 2020????

 

[Voodoo Tatum 21]

I have to agree with HHS on that one.

Have seen many an undefeated freshman squad (thinking they would be challenging for state titles senior year) end up 6-3, 5-4, 4-5 due to:
*key kids dropping the sport to concentrate on other sports
* kids moving out of state or transferring
* a bad class ahead or below that doesn’t complement the “awesome class”.

 

[BBCHS77]

I have to agree with HHS on that one.

Have seen many an undefeated freshman squad (thinking they would be challenging for state titles senior year) end up 6-3, 5-4, 4-5 due to:
*key kids dropping the sport to concentrate on other sports
* kids moving out of state or transferring
* a bad class ahead or below that doesn’t complement the “awesome class”.

Or the 6' 205 8th grader is a 6' 205 lb senior 4 years later

 

[Voodoo Tatum 21]

Or the 6' 205 8th grader is a 6' 205 lb senior 4 years later

Yup seen that too. What you get in 9th grade is what you get in 12th on a few kids.

Have also seen the opposite with a B team player in 9th grade becoming a monster at the high school level by his senior year.

Have no data to support it - but I’m guessing over a long period of time those two extremes would balance each other out as you look at each classes potential potential.

 

[Wilmatucky]

The Big Northern is a great football conference. Lots of strong programs and quality rivalries.

Heck yes it is! Would love to go catch some of those games if I had the time!

 

[Cat Box]

Judging high school varsity based on youth football is a foolish endeavor, that was the point...

Kankakee County had 3 varsity/junior high teams go undefeated last fall... is that 3 state champions in 2020????

Debating with you on a sports message board is a foolish endeavor.

That being said, I will plunge into the foolishness of your statement and fully expect you to tell me I am wrong, a blowhard and hijack the thread into bashing small private school athletic programs as is your history.

You believe judging (the potential) of high school varsity based on youth football is foolish. The truth is, youth football is the ONLY predictor of varsity football potential. We look to baseball farm systems as a future predictor of MLB success - that is NOT a foolish endeavor. We measure the strength of college football success by the strength of their recruiting class - that is NOT a foolish endeavor. Yet you think youth football is...

Don't you realize what a fool you are?

 

[Wilmatucky]

I have to agree with HHS on that one.

Have seen many an undefeated freshman squad (thinking they would be challenging for state titles senior year) end up 6-3, 5-4, 4-5 due to:
*key kids dropping the sport to concentrate on other sports
* kids moving out of state or transferring
* a bad class ahead or below that doesn’t complement the “awesome class”.

Also.....

*Kids on the teams they play moving studs up to JV/Varsity play only
*Lack of development as a team (coaching) or as individuals (Physical)
*Outside influences typically reserved for upperclassmen (partying etc)

 

[Cat Box]

I have to agree with HHS on that one.

Have seen many an undefeated freshman squad (thinking they would be challenging for state titles senior year) end up 6-3, 5-4, 4-5 due to:
*key kids dropping the sport to concentrate on other sports
* kids moving out of state or transferring
* a bad class ahead or below that doesn’t complement the “awesome class”.

You're not wrong in what you state above.
However...
The ONLY factor you can use to predict future success is previous success. All other factors you describe above are not predictors, they are circumstances which dilute the predictive results.