CalPreps Projections for this weekend

[No Bias---Just Reality]

I know many of you run the projections on CalPreps and when you set up hypothetical projections on your own it uses a neutral field for the projection. You may know, but in case you don’t, they also project games that are really going to happen and include home field in their scenario and it’s supposed to be a better projection. They come out on Tuesday night of game week. So these are fresh from last night. I know it should be taken with a grain of salt but if a board like this isn’t the place for this kind of thing I don’t know where it would be appropriate... So for fun here is the link to this weeks games in Illinois.

http://www.calpreps.com/cgi-bin/2018/weekview.pl?week=Illinois_13

 

[Sterling Warrior]

I know many of you run the projections on CalPreps and when you set up hypothetical projections on your own it uses a neutral field for the projection. You may know, but in case you don’t, they also project games that are really going to happen and include home field in their scenario and it’s supposed to be a better projection. They come out on Tuesday night of game week. So these are fresh from last night. I know it should be taken with a grain of salt but if a board like this isn’t the place for this kind of thing I don’t know where it would be appropriate... So for fun here is the link to this weeks games in Illinois.

http://www.calpreps.com/cgi-bin/2018/weekview.pl?week=Illinois_13

Just a fun fact,
If you throw out the Philips game in the semi finals, last year, Sterling has not been beat at home since the 2015-2016 season where Sycamore won 21-18 not saying they are going to beat Montini but just saying they are hard to beat at home.

 

[No Bias---Just Reality]

Just a fun fact,
If you throw out the Philips game in the semi finals, last year, Sterling has not been beat at home since the 2015-2016 season where Sycamore won 21-18 not saying they are going to beat Montini but just saying they are hard to beat at home.

Yeah but you can’t throw that out... not to be a dick but next year are you going to say “fun fact, if you throw out Montini from last year and Phillips from 2 years ago Sterling is tough at home.” ?

 

[Cat Box]

Yeah but you can’t throw that out... not to be a dick but next year are you going to say “fun fact, if you throw out Montini from last year and Phillips from 2 years ago Sterling is tough at home.” ?

“Not to be a dick, but...”
LOL. Hilarious.

 

[go dogz]

I know many of you run the projections on CalPreps and when you set up hypothetical projections on your own it uses a neutral field for the projection. You may know, but in case you don’t, they also project games that are really going to happen and include home field in their scenario and it’s supposed to be a better projection. They come out on Tuesday night of game week. So these are fresh from last night. I know it should be taken with a grain of salt but if a board like this isn’t the place for this kind of thing I don’t know where it would be appropriate... So for fun here is the link to this weeks games in Illinois.

http://www.calpreps.com/cgi-bin/2018/weekview.pl?week=Illinois_13

pretty sure the Richards / crete game is at crete, not in oaklawn.

 

[No Bias---Just Reality]

pretty sure the Richards / crete game is at crete, not in oaklawn.

It would appear that way... feel free to take it up with the appropriate authorities... not my deal... just posted the link.

 

[Sterling Warrior]

Yeah but you can’t throw that out... not to be a dick but next year are you going to say “fun fact, if you throw out Montini from last year and Phillips from 2 years ago Sterling is tough at home.” ?

I get it.

 

[USD24]

FWIW, Calpreps has predicted this years IHSA playoff with an 84% accuracy rate.
1st round- 111-17 87%
2nd round- 57-12 83%
Quarters 26-8 77%

 

[godfthr53]

FWIW, Calpreps has predicted this years IHSA playoff with an 84% accuracy rate.
1st round- 111-17 87%
2nd round- 57-12 83%
Quarters 26-8 77%

So which 2-3 games is it going to be wrong on.

 

[skeetz45]

Here is the book from Streator, A guy does this every week and is usually pretty close. He only does class 1-5.
Class 1A: @ Lena-Winslow (11-1) 26 ½ Forreston (10-2)
Class 1A: @ Argenta-Oreana (12-0) 16 ½ Camp Point Central (11-1)
Class 2A: Gibson City-Melvin-Sibley (12-0) 21 ½ @ Eastland-Pearl City (12-0)
Class 2A: @ Decatur St. Teresa (12-0) 10 ½ Maroa-Forsyth (12-0)
Class 3A: Byron (12-0) 34 ½ @ Herscher (8-4)
Class 3A: @ Monticello (12-0) 20 ½ Carlinville (12-0)
Class 4A: @ Elmhurst IC Catholic (12-0) 30 ½ Richmond-Burton (11-1)
Class 4A: Rochester (11-1) 14 ½ @ Kankakee McNamara (11-1)
Class 5A: Lombard Montini (11-1) 8 ½ @ Sterling (11-1)
Class 5A: @ Joliet Catholic (8-4) 13 ½ Country Club Hills Hillcrest (12-0

 

[USD24]

Here is the book from Streator, A guy does this every week and is usually pretty close. He only does class 1-5.
Class 1A: @ Lena-Winslow (11-1) 26 ½ Forreston (10-2)
Class 1A: @ Argenta-Oreana (12-0) 16 ½ Camp Point Central (11-1)
Class 2A: Gibson City-Melvin-Sibley (12-0) 21 ½ @ Eastland-Pearl City (12-0)
Class 2A: @ Decatur St. Teresa (12-0) 10 ½ Maroa-Forsyth (12-0)
Class 3A: Byron (12-0) 34 ½ @ Herscher (8-4)
Class 3A: @ Monticello (12-0) 20 ½ Carlinville (12-0)
Class 4A: @ Elmhurst IC Catholic (12-0) 30 ½ Richmond-Burton (11-1)
Class 4A: Rochester (11-1) 14 ½ @ Kankakee McNamara (11-1)
Class 5A: Lombard Montini (11-1) 8 ½ @ Sterling (11-1)
Class 5A: @ Joliet Catholic (8-4) 13 ½ Country Club Hills Hillcrest (12-0

That IC number is HUGE

 

[epicbret]

I'll take it

 

[Alexander32]

So which 2-3 games is it going to be wrong on.

Here are the point-spreads provided by the Earned Index:

Marist by 1
Lincoln-Way East by 14
Nazareth by 2-1/2
Mount Carmel by 10-1/2
Cary-Grove by 8-1/2
Richards by 5-1/2
Montini by 7-1/2
Hillcrest by 3-1/2
IC Catholic by 15-1/2
Rochester by 3-1/2
Byron by 14
Monticello by 5-1/2
Eastland-Pearl City (Lanark) by 1
Maroa-Forsyth by 3-1/2
Lena-Winslow by 10
Argenta-Oreana by 1

 

[doctor_d]

IC at home should cover that spread.

 

[Alexander32]

Here is the book from Streator, A guy does this every week and is usually pretty close. He only does class 1-5.
Class 1A: @ Lena-Winslow (11-1) 26 ½ Forreston (10-2)
Class 1A: @ Argenta-Oreana (12-0) 16 ½ Camp Point Central (11-1)
Class 2A: Gibson City-Melvin-Sibley (12-0) 21 ½ @ Eastland-Pearl City (12-0)
Class 2A: @ Decatur St. Teresa (12-0) 10 ½ Maroa-Forsyth (12-0)
Class 3A: Byron (12-0) 34 ½ @ Herscher (8-4)
Class 3A: @ Monticello (12-0) 20 ½ Carlinville (12-0)
Class 4A: @ Elmhurst IC Catholic (12-0) 30 ½ Richmond-Burton (11-1)
Class 4A: Rochester (11-1) 14 ½ @ Kankakee McNamara (11-1)
Class 5A: Lombard Montini (11-1) 8 ½ @ Sterling (11-1)
Class 5A: @ Joliet Catholic (8-4) 13 ½ Country Club Hills Hillcrest (12-0

The points seem generous. I would take the underdog plus the points in every case.

 

[Alexander32]

So which 2-3 games is it going to be wrong on.

I have not yet learned my lesson regarding Joliet Catholic. I keep thinking if a team can at least slow the JCA scoring machine, then Joliet's defense is vulnerable enough that the other team will win. Clearly Highland was not that team. But, once again, I will go against Joliet Catholic and think Hillcrest's defense is good enough to get the job done. So I think CalPreps is wrong; Hillcrest beats Joliet Catholic. I also will take Rochester to beat Bishop McNamara, so that is a second game where I think CalPreps will be wrong. Those are the only two games where I would pick a different winner; but in some cases, such as the Nazareth/Batavia game, I think the point-spread is a bit generous. I also think the Richards spread is too generous, but that may be because CalPreps erroneously has Richards as the home team.

 

[pjjp]

I have not yet learned my lesson regarding Joliet Catholic. I keep thinking if a team can at least slow the JCA scoring machine, then Joliet's defense is vulnerable enough that the other team will win. Clearly Highland was not that team. But, once again, I will go against Joliet Catholic and think Hillcrest's defense is good enough to get the job done.

FWIW, Steve Soucie is the sports editor of the Herald News, the local paper that covers JCA. He made his semi-final picks in today's edition. He's picking Hillcrest. He pointed out how good their defense is. On this board, people seem to quickly dismiss the fact that they've only given up more than 1 TD once, and it was in Week 1. I guess it's the whole quality of competition question. How JCA's defense handles the Hawks' speed on offense will be telling as well. We shall see on Saturday.

 

[CaravanMan]

Is Hillcrest's QB healthy? I thought it was mentioned on here that he was injured and out for the rest of season heading into playoffs.

EDIT:***Nevermind. Found an article that he was injured and their backup is running the show.***

 

[doctor_d]

I will take IC, Mt Carmel and Rochester to cover their calpreps spreads.

 

[USD24]

Is Hillcrest's QB healthy? I thought it was mentioned on here that he was injured and out for the rest of season heading into playoffs.

EDIT:***Nevermind. Found an article that he was injured and their backup is running the show.***

Pat Disabato reported that Hillcrest's QB has been cleared to play on Saturday.

 

[No Bias---Just Reality]

I have not yet learned my lesson regarding Joliet Catholic. I keep thinking if a team can at least slow the JCA scoring machine, then Joliet's defense is vulnerable enough that the other team will win. Clearly Highland was not that team. But, once again, I will go against Joliet Catholic and think Hillcrest's defense is good enough to get the job done. So I think CalPreps is wrong; Hillcrest beats Joliet Catholic. I also will take Rochester to beat Bishop McNamara, so that is a second game where I think CalPreps will be wrong. Those are the only two games where I would pick a different winner; but in some cases, such as the Nazareth/Batavia game, I think the point-spread is a bit generous. I also think the Richards spread is too generous, but that may be because CalPreps erroneously has Richards as the home team.

With the Brother Rice / Marist game a 1 point spread the computers clearly feel this one is a toss up and could easily be one of the incorrect picks.

 

[mchsalumni]

Montini has given up 50 points in 10 games excluding BR and LA games, where they gave up 58. The question for Saturday will be who can get to 17 between these two teams. I expect a low scoring game here, like a 17-10 or 17-14 final. Not sure who wins, but should be a great game!

 

[Sterling Warrior]

Montini has given up 50 points in 10 games excluding BR and LA games, where they gave up 58. The question for Saturday will be who can get to 17 between these two teams. I expect a low scoring game here, like a 17-10 or 17-14 final. Not sure who wins, but should be a great game!

I watched the video of the last time Montini played Sterling in playoffs, I made 2 observations, one being Sterling had grass back then, now have turf, and the updated stadium. Sterling ran wing T which never worked against good defense like Montini, It’s much more enjoyable having a passing game with a mobil quarterback!

 

[penlight]

Pat Disabato reported that Hillcrest's QB has been cleared to play on Saturday.

Though they appear to not have missed a beat, his presence likely opens up more dimensions; things that the Hilltoppers have been challenged to defend.
It should be a good game. Some element like turnovers may be the difference.

 

[Gene K.]

I watched the video of the last time Montini played Sterling in playoffs, I made 2 observations, one being Sterling had grass back then, now have turf, and the updated stadium. Sterling ran wing T which never worked against good defense like Montini, It’s much more enjoyable having a passing game with a mobil quarterback!

You answered a question I was going to ask which is whether you guys had grass or turf. Don't know how the weather will affect the game but do you have any idea of what your weather forecast is calling for on game day?

 

[gw86]

You answered a question I was going to ask which is whether you guys had grass or turf. Don't know how the weather will affect the game but do you have any idea of what your weather forecast is calling for on game day?

Right now it says 50-70% chance of snow starting early morning but dropping off as it gets closer to game time. 34 degrees at kickoff with a nice warm 14 mph breeze out of the north. Haha I’ll be wearing a few layers.

 

[Sterling Warrior]

Sterling is right on the border line that said 3-6
Inches. I know they both have to play in it but I think snow plays into Montinis favor.

 

[reaperup]

I'd bet the under in the IC RB game

 

[crusader_of_90]

a mobil quarterback!

All Gas?

 

[crusader_of_90]

God is Great!

Turnover TD for Loyola!

 

[Voodoo Tatum 21]

Scoop and score?

 

[crusader_of_90]

Scoop and score?

Yes

 

[eireog]

They called the exact score in the CG/ND game.