8A/7A cutoff outlook

[GEPreps]

UPDATED WITH WEEK 8 RESULTS AND POINTS

Below are the 4+ win teams with enrollments greater than Glenbard West (2321), and then Edwardsville (2364), Maine South (2401), and St, Charles East (2486) are the next three largest schools down to 7A (if larger enrollment school can qualify).

The 32 largest enrollment playoff qualifiers make up the 8A field.
Assuming 38 points is playoff qualifying.

(#) (Wins) (Points) (Enrollment) (School Name)

------ These teams have qualified -----
01 8 ** 3004 Barrington
02 8 ** 2916 Lincoln-Way East
03 8 ** 2717 Marist
04 7 ** 3377 Loyola
05 7 ** 2996 Huntley
06 7 ** 2729 Oswego
07 7 ** 2724 Homewood-Flossmoor
08 7 ** 2653 Minooka
09 7 ** 2401 Maine South
10 7 ** 3472 Bolingbrook
11 7 ** 2733 South Elgin
12 6 ** 2766 Hinsdale Central
13 6 ** 4846 Curie
14 6 ** 3981 Lyons
15 6 ** 2610 Notre Dame
16 6 ** 2578 Oswego East
17 6 ** 2845 Naperville Central
18 6 ** 2486 St. Charles East
19 6 ** 3724 West Aurora
20 6 ** 4029 Stevenson

--- Guaranteed 39+ points
(conf pts with wk 9 loss + pt from two opponents playing wk 9)
21 5 41 4158 Warren (+4)
22 5 40 2626 Palatine (+3)
23 5 39 2601 Lake Park (+4)
24 5 37 2740 Naperville North (+4)
25 5 37 2364 Edwardsville (+4)
26 5 37 2949 Bloom Twp (+3)
27 5 36 3294 OPRF (+3)
28 5 35 3271 Joliet West (+5)
29 5 35 3999 New Trier (+4)
30 5 35 2972 Glenbrook South (+4)

--- Likely to get 6+ wins or 5 wins with 38+ playoff points
31 5 34 3285 Evanston -> Niles North (+3, Hub, Taft, Pal, Fremd)

--- Need win in week 9 or luck with points
** 5 32 3698 Neuqua Valley -> Glenbard North (+4, Metea, Thornwd)

--- Need win in week 9 ---
** 4 40 2573 Waubonsie Valley -> Wheaton North (+3)
** 4 38 2590 Zion-Benton -> Libertyville (+3)
** 4 36 2656 Downers Grove South -> Willowbrook (+2, HS, BB, OPRF, DGN)

--- Need win in week 9 and luck with points
** 4 32 3294 Leyden -> Morton (+2, Fen, DGN, LT, HS)
** 4 28 3943 Lane -> Hubbard (+1, Leo, MtC, SS, Sim, Cur, Taft)

 

[GEPreps]

WEEK 9 UPDATE

Neaqua Valley may still qualify even if they lose out.
Guaranteed 4 more points from four DVC conference winners week 9, so 36 minimum points guaranteed.

Then an additional point for these outcomes.
Thornwood defeats Thornridge
Metea Valley defeats Rock Island

 

[GEPreps]

WEEK 9 UPDATE

Leyden gets 2 more points from the other two WSG winners week 9, so 34 minimum points guaranteed.

Then an additional point for these outcomes.
HS defeats HC
Fenton defeats IC
LT defeats OPRF
DGN defeats York

 

[GEPreps]

WEEK 9 UPDATE

If DGS defeats Willowbrook, they get 2 more points from the WSG game winners, so 38 points guaranteed.

Then an additional point for these outcomes.
HS defeats HC
Bolingbrook defeats LWE
OPRF defeats LT
DGN defeats York

 

[capnbillhitters]

It all comes down, realistically, to DGS beating DGN. DGS is not beating WB.

If DGS wins Friday, GW to 7A

If DGS loses Friday, GW smallest 8 A

 

[jwalsh5]

Who has Willowbrook beaten that makes you think unbeatable?

 

[Cross Bones]

I'm torn here. I really want GBW to join the battle royal, but at the same time I am a Mustang.

 

[GEPreps]

I think there are other viable options than just DGS.

Lake Park and Neuqua Valley are not mutually exclusive on qualifying. Although, LP might not be favored, it would not be a monumental upset to defeat NV or NC and then both LP and NV could qualify.

Also, the Leyden and Hinsdale South game is no gimme for HS. Leyden would then be favored over Morton in week 9, but playoff points might be Leyden's problem.

 

[capnbillhitters]

Who has Willowbrook beaten that makes you think unbeatable?

WB has dominated their conference and only loss was a game against a very good HC team that basically shut down a high powered GW offense (yes I know, muddy field but that was only 2nd half and GW scored on short field after blocked punt and KO return in 1st) in a game where WB was beating HC at half. WB is a two TD fave with a RB that is very tough to stop.

I’m not saying never, I’m just trying to be realistic about scenarios that need to happen. DGS being a one point dog to DGN at home is much more reasonable than holding out for a large upset of WB.

WV could beat NN and WN but I’m not holding my breath for that either.

 

[GEPreps]

WB has dominated their conference

I did not watch these game, but they are one score wins.

Willowbrook 20 - Leyden 13
Willowbrook 38 - Hinsdale South 33

 

[capnbillhitters]

I think there are other viable options than just DGS.

Lake Park and Neuqua Valley are not mutually exclusive on qualifying. Although, LP might not be favored, it would not be a monumental upset to defeat NV or NC and then both LP and NV could qualify.

Also, the Leyden and Hinsdale South game is no gimme for HS. Leyden would then be favored over Morton in week 9, but playoff points might be Leyden's problem.

Massey has NV -7 over LP so doable yes, and with the way they played last week, more likely that I was picturing prior. (calpreps has this as 1 pt game so maybe this is closer than I thought)

I can't find Leyden for Massey, but Calpreps has HS as 16 pt faves over Leyden, so tough to picture Leyden being a spoiler.

So I will change how I speak to say there are two critical games this week and if LP beats NV OR if DGS beats DGN, GW goes 7A. If both happen, E'ville joins GW in 7A. If neither happen GW goes 8A.

 

[capnbillhitters]

I did not watch these game, but they are one score wins.

Willowbrook 20 - Leyden 13
Willowbrook 38 - Hinsdale South 33

I'll take WB and give you 9.

 

[GEPreps]

I'll take WB and give you 9.

If you are giving me 9 points for games already played, then I'll take it.
--
I am not predicting the outcome, or a point spread, I am just saying some of the WSG and DVC game outcomes are a little more unpredictable than you seem to be allowing.

 

[cpacmel]

It all comes down, realistically, to DGS beating DGN. DGS is not beating WB.

If DGS wins Friday, GW to 7A

If DGS loses Friday, GW smallest 8 A

Capnbillhitters, I throw you another 7A “potential” life line....Lots of ‘talk’ of a potential Plainfield teachers strike coming this month

 

[capnbillhitters]

If you are giving me 9 points for games already played, then I'll take it.
--
I am not predicting the outcome, or a point spread, I am just saying some of the WSG and DVC game outcomes are a little more unpredictable than you seem to be allowing.

I'm saying WB beats DGS by 9 or more points. So tis is the week for DGS to qualify. I'm very bullish on WB right now.

 

[GEPreps]

Capnbillhitters, I throw you another 7A “potential” life line....Lots of ‘talk’ of a potential Plainfield teachers strike coming this month

Losses by Plainfield district high schools or exclusion from playoffs has no effect on likely 8A qualifiers listed in original post.

Possibly might affect playoff points needed for 5 win teams, but not really helping GW end up in 7A.

It was highly unlikely Plainfield North would defeat both Oswego and Minooka.

 

[goomsback]

Why would the teachers strike in Late October?

 

[cpacmel]

Losses by Plainfield district high schools or exclusion from playoffs has no effect on likely 8A qualifiers listed in original post.

Possibly might have affect playoff points needed for 5 win teams, but not really helping GW end up in 7A.

It was highly unlikely Plainfield North would defeat both Oswego and Minooka.

I said “potential”. Plainfield South, who would have to win their last 2.

 

[cpacmel]

Why would the teachers strike in Late October?

Working without a contract. Teachers rejected last offer. Lots of buzz about a vote to strike happening.

 

[capnbillhitters]

Capnbillhitters, I throw you another 7A “potential” life line....Lots of ‘talk’ of a potential Plainfield teachers strike coming this month

Pretty sure this would provide marginal value for the 7A cut line.

PS (8A) not likely to qualify at 3-4 anyway.
PN (7A) is qualified, but if for some reason they cancel season and pull out of playoffs, next team in at 5-4 would likely be a 6A or below 5-4 team. I don't think the next 5-4 team in based on Opp Victories would be an 8A team.

 

[GEPreps]

I said “potential”. Plainfield South, who would have to win their last 2.

So, still not a lifeline. GW to 7A scenario wants more 8A qualifiers with a larger enrollment, not fewer.

 

[cpacmel]

It was highly unlikely Plainfield North would defeat both Oswego and Minooka.

I think you meant Plainfield south not north.

And I agree with ya. Just throwing it out there as potential help.

 

[cpacmel]

So, still not a lifeline. GW to 7A scenario wants more 8A qualifiers with a larger enrollment, not fewer.

Plainfield South has a larger enrollment than GW.

My bad, life line and potential help wasn’t right word usuage. As a strike would actually hurt GW’s chances. My fault fellas.

Doesn’t matter as South isn’t winning out anyways.

 

[crusader_of_90]

Why would the teachers strike in Late October?

For the most leverage, of course.

 

[jwalsh5]

I'll take WB and give you 9.

I will gladly take 9, but definitely not needed,,have you watched either team play this year? I think dgn would beat Willowbrook also

 

[capnbillhitters]

I will gladly take 9, but definitely not needed,,have you watched either team play this year? I think dgn would beat Willowbrook also

I am not referring to anything in the past. The game I suggested was WB beating DGS.

If DGN beats WB, are you also of the opinion DGN beats DGS? Or is it just WB you don't like?

btw - I have seen some film and lots of highlights and also watched that WB RB wrestle about 6-7 times. He is a wrecking crew

 

[jwalsh5]

Dgs has jrs and srs that have beaten Willowbrook every year since they were freshman. They also have a good wrestler on d line, but it’s a football game not wrestling. I have watched both teams, and will go with dgs 9 out of 10 games against Willowbrook

 

[capnbillhitters]

Dgs has jrs and srs that have beaten Willowbrook every year since they were freshman. They also have a good wrestler on d line, but it’s a football game not wrestling. I have watched both teams, and will go with dgs 9 out of 10 games against Willowbrook

I’m hoping DGS gets it done this week against DGN and ends the suspense. If you’re right, then it sounds like there is a viable fall back next week. I realize GW loses a opp victory but would rather know 7A by Friday night.

 

[LakeCtyNewt]

Why are GBW fans so afraid of playing in 8A?

 

[capnbillhitters]

Again with the misread Newt?

Every year GW is the largest or smallest so GE Preps does this post. Every year we go back and forth and explain that while GW is happy to play any team on any field, the 8A gauntlet that GW ran last year cost them key defensive leaders such that by the time we got to LA in the semis, our lack of depth was exposed by yet another huge offensive line.

GW always loves a challenge and the MS Week 1 scheduling proves it. Looking at Soucie’s current 8A field, just about everyone I know would take that draw and be excited about the opportunity to measure our development from Week 1 against Marist & Barrington etc.

Last year GW lucked into an 8A draw that had them at NV, home vs H-F, driving 4 hours to E’ville before hosting LA. For 3 1/2 games, GW proved to be the equal of any 8A team in the state.

No one is afraid. Just intrigued.

 

[LakeCtyNewt]

Fair enough

 

[goomsback]

can we see a 7A/6A outlook?

 

[Ndrfootball1132]

I am not referring to anything in the past. The game I suggested was WB beating DGS.

If DGN beats WB, are you also of the opinion DGN beats DGS? Or is it just WB you don't like?

btw - I have seen some film and lots of highlights and also watched that WB RB wrestle about 6-7 times. He is a wrecking crew

DGN beats DGS 35-24

 

[capnbillhitters]

DGN beats DGS 35-24

Yeah, my problem is that I haven't seen DGS play, but obviously DGN is playing some good ball as seen against OPRF, so wouldn't surprise me.

If DGN does win and GW goes 8A, they are ready to deal with that draw.

 

[kitty_bintingot]

Both DGN and DGS are vying for playoff spots so they'll both show up. But DGN can't afford this loss. And after seeing HC, GW, OP and LT in consecutive weeks, DGN will be playing the game at a higher level than DGS. So I think DGN takes it. I'll go 24-14.

Given that DGS will then face a do or die situation against WB, I think it's harder to say what will happen even though on paper WB should roll.

 

[chuck998]

I'm guessing that DGS stands a good chance of finishing their season 4-5 (losing to DGN and WB, where WB will likely go 8-1 for their season and do some real damage in the playoffs) That puts GW in 8A.

 

[GEPreps]

Moved OPRF (31 points) to the guaranteed 5 win 38+ point group.

In scenario with losses to GW and LT, OPRF picks up 6 more WSC weekly conf winner points.
Also, guaranteed another point from DGS/DGN game.

Can also pick up additional points with wins from Simeon, Morton, and HC over HS in week 9.

 

[GEPreps]

can we see a 7A/6A outlook?

Sorry, maybe some else can do it this year.

 

[TPF523]

Dgs has jrs and srs that have beaten Willowbrook every year since they were freshman. They also have a good wrestler on d line, but it’s a football game not wrestling. I have watched both teams, and will go with dgs 9 out of 10 games against Willowbrook

No idea who wins but that wrestler will also be the best football player on the field.

 

[GEPreps]

original post updated