If one wants the Illinois high school football playoffs to be more competitive, better teams need to be included. That is, add some teams that are better than some of the teams currently included in the playoffs. If it is undesirable to expand the number of teams, this necessarily means some teams need to be dropped. The challenge is to do this in a fair and objective manner, with full transparency, and also to preserve a substantial number of playoff spots for teams from weaker conferences. The following set of selection and seeding criteria tries to do all that.
* All current IHSA procedures that are not specifically changed by the following amendments will remain in place.
* All teams with at least seven (7) regular season wins will be included in the playoffs; unless their conference prohibits it or the school itself chooses not to participate.
* All conference champions, (excluding conferences with less than six teams and conferences with more than eleven teams), will be included in the playoffs regardless of record. Current rules will determine the conference champion (and therefore automatic qualifier) in the case of ties. Teams from conferences with less than six teams and more than eleven teams will be treated like independents.
* Independents must have seven or more regular season wins to participate in the playoffs, unless they have played in a semifinal game at least once (in the aggregate) over the last five playoffs or have played two such teams during the current season (in which case they can participate with fewer than seven wins in accordance with current rules).
* All teams playing in a conference (with 6 to 11 members) where at least one conference member has played in at least one semifinal game over the last five playoffs will be eligible to play in the playoffs subject to currently existing selection rules.
* Teams playing in a conference where no conference member has played in a semifinal game over the last five playoffs must have seven regular season wins to participate in the playoffs, (except they can also qualify under the rules for independents).
* Private schools that have played in at least one semifinal game over the last five playoffs will have their student enrollment multiplied by 1.65 for the purpose of determining which class they will initially be assigned to.
* Private schools will be subject to the following success factor: X - 2 = Y
Where X is the number of semifinal games the school has played in over the last five playoffs, then Y will be the number of class levels the team will be moved up. As a current example, Nazareth Academy played in four semifinal games over the five playoffs immediately preceding 2023, and therefore its 2023 team will be moved up two class levels from its initial assignment (from 5A to 7A).
* Public schools will be subject to the following success factor: A - 2 = B
Where A is the number of state championships the school has won over the last five playoffs, then B will be the number of class levels the team will be moved up. As a current example, Lena-Winslow won four championships over the five playoffs immediately preceding 2023, and therefore its 2023 team will be moved up two class levels from its initial assignment (from 1A to 3A).
* Any team qualifying for the playoffs from a conference (6 to 11 members) without a semifinal appearance in the last five playoffs will be moved down one class level from its initial class assignment.
* For seeding purposes only, a modified regular-season win total will be used. All teams that have qualified for the playoffs and have played in at least one semifinal game (in the aggregate) during the preceding five playoffs will have one win added to their actual regular-season win total. Other than this small modification, seeding will be done according to the current existing IHSA procedures. This modified win total is not to be used for determining which teams make the playoffs.
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Explanation
As can be seen, a heavy emphasis has been placed on semifinal appearances over the preceding five playoffs. This has been done for two reasons. First, when determining (systematically) whether or not a team should be moved to a different class level, whether it be due to the multiplier, the success factor, or playing in a weak conference, I believe the emphasis should be on measuring program strength and not whether an individual team is good. If we simply start moving all the good teams to higher class levels, then the playoffs at the lower levels become consolation playoffs. That is not desirable. We should want each class level to be a legitimate playoff between teams of more or less the same program strength. Furthermore, program strength more often than not determines how good the team actually is. Quincy and Hononegah had outstanding seasons relative to their respective program strengths, but their 9-0 records simply do not reflect the same level of ability as the 9-0 record of Lincoln-Way East. They deserve to compete at the 7A level rather than move up to 8A because their program strengths are at a 7A level. Mt. Carmel's program strength, on the other hand, is at an 8A level. Mt. Carmel is certainly one of the top five programs in the state.
A second reason for emphasizing semifinal appearances over the preceding five playoffs is simply because it is a very effective measure. There is a strong correlation between such appearances and having success in a current year's playoff. Sports handicapping is a hobby of mine and I have done a considerable number of studies regarding this particular relationship. The consistent outcome is that close to 85% of state football champions in any given year were also semifinalists at least once in the preceding five years. As just one example I looked at a sample of 50 teams. These were the 19 8A champions from 2003 through 2022, the 19 7A champions from 2003 through 2022, and the 12 6A champions from 2010 through 2022. [I was looking to create a sample of 50 outcomes and don't like to go back more than 20 years because the value of statistics depreciates with time. Also, of course, there were no playoffs in 2020.] The result was that 42 of these 50 champions (84%) had been a semifinalist at least once during the preceding five playoffs. This is a strong correlation. Reducing the time period being measured to two years, as the IHSA currently does, reduces the correlation to about 70%.
Consistently applying the criteria set forth above to all eight classes would have resulted in 29 teams being removed from the playoffs entirely. Those teams went a combined 2-27 in the first round. The two teams that won their first-round game lost in the second round by 35 points and 24 points. Of the 27 teams that lost in the first round, 11 of them lost by 40 or more points. Only three of them lost by fewer than 10 points. It is my contention that removing these teams from the playoffs, along with the new success factor, and dropping teams from weak conferences down a class level, would have made the playoffs more competitive. This would have been done while still making sure there was room to include every team in the state with a record of 7-2 or better.
Any questions or comments will be welcome.
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