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Who Should Be On Upset Alert And Why?

guerinfbfan

Well-Known Member
Sep 25, 2005
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Pretty simple topic to get some good discussion going.

What teams should be on upset alert in Round 1 and why are they on "notice"?
 
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Lots of interesting games this year...

I'll stick to 1A-4A... and just posting games I think COULD potentially see upsets.

1A
Aurora (Chistian) @ LeRoy
Stockton @ Princeville
Hope @ Newman CC
Routt @ Casey-Westfield

2A
Shelbyville @ Pana
North Mac @ ALAH

3A
Tolono Unity @ Roxana
Mt. Carmel @ Sullivan (Okaw Valley)
DuQuoin @ Monticello

4A
Geneseo @ Chicago Sullivan
Chicago DePaul @ Chicago Dyett
St. Laurence @ Richmond-Burton
Boylan @ Chicago South Shore
Mt. Zion @ Carterville
U-High @ Manteno
 
@doctor_d That's a good question, usually I would say seeds, as I particularly don't pay attention to Massey. However, we know some teams are quite over seeded due to inflated record/subpar competition.
 
Lots of interesting games this year...

I'll stick to 1A-4A... and just posting games I think COULD potentially see upsets.

1A
Aurora (Chistian) @ LeRoy
Stockton @ Princeville
Hope @ Newman CC
Routt @ Casey-Westfield

2A
Shelbyville @ Pana
North Mac @ ALAH

3A
Tolono Unity @ Roxana
Mt. Carmel @ Sullivan (Okaw Valley)
DuQuoin @ Monticello

4A
Geneseo @ Chicago Sullivan
Chicago DePaul @ Chicago Dyett
St. Laurence @ Richmond-Burton
Boylan @ Chicago South Shore
Mt. Zion @ Carterville
U-High @ Manteno
My first take on the AC/LeRoy game was "Oh boy" but this is a very good LeRoy team that should make it to the 3rd round. The Rams could beat Pana... I picked NMac to handle Arthur. Tolono should be battle tested by ya never know down in Roxana. I feel that Sullivan has the better team... Monticello should have their way. I have UHigh making a deep run. I picked MtZ but... You did well Roamin
 
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My first take on the AC/LeRoy game was "Oh boy" but this is a very good LeRoy team that should make it to the 3rd round. The Rams could beat Pana... I picked NMac to handle Arthur. Tolono should be battle tested by ya never know down in Roxana. I feel that Sullivan has the better team... Monticello should have their way. I have UHigh making a deep run. I picked MtZ but... You did well Roamin
LeRoy by running clock
 
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1A
LeRoy vs. Aurora Christian - LeRoy should win but it will be close.

Newman vs. Hope - game could go either way

2A
Rockridge vs. EPC - EPC is very talented this year and is definitely a sleeper team

BCC vs. Tri Valley - BCC is a solid team and lost some close ones this year. There is a lot of hatred between these schools which are only a few miles apart

3A
Peotone vs. Eureka - strength of schedule is a factor here, Peotone does a good job with the ground and pound which Eureka struggles to stop

Mt.Carmel vs. Sullivan - Sullivan is solid but play a weak 1A schedule.

4A
Geneseo vs. Chi Sullivan - won't be close

St. Laurence vs. Richmond Burton - RB ain't what they used to be

Boylan vs. South Shore - won't be close

Kewanee vs. Richland - the White Squirrels of Olney have not seen a tough opponent with athletes like Kewanee

Uni High vs. Manteno - Manteno has given up 100+ points combo the last two weeks, that says enough about their defense, and Uni has a good offense
 
If seeds, I’ll start with any higher seeded CPL teams and any lower seeded CCL/ESCC teams
This captures the majority of obvious upsets IMO.

Besides the CPS schools that are playing each other in round 1 (which there seems to be a lot of this year), the only realistic opportunities I see for R1 CPS wins are:
  • Morgan Park (5A) - could go deep IMO
  • Simeon (6A) - I don't know much about Normal West so I could be off, but Simeon won't be outgunned
  • Whitney Young (7A) in ROUND 2 - This is a really good WY team and I would give them a shot against Jacobs/B-B winner if they get past Kenwood in R1.
On the flip side, I don't think there is a single CCL school that shouldn't be a heavy R1 favorite (to a non-CCL school).
 
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This captures the majority of obvious upsets IMO.

Besides the CPS schools that are playing each other in round 1 (which there seems to be a lot of this year), the only realistic opportunities I see for R1 CPS wins are:
  • Morgan Park (5A) - could go deep IMO
  • Simeon (6A) - I don't know much about Normal West so I could be off, but Simeon won't be outgunned
  • Whitney Young (7A) in ROUND 2 - This is a really good WY team and I would give them a shot against Jacobs/B-B winner if they get past Kenwood in R1.
On the flip side, I don't think there is a single CCL school that shouldn't be a heavy R1 favorite (to a non-CCL school).
That Kenwood/WY game could be a real good one. 14-13 WY in reg season.
Kenwood had 60 playoff points, didn't realize it was THAT high.
 
That Kenwood/WY game could be a real good one. 14-13 WY in reg season.
Kenwood had 60 playoff points, didn't realize it was THAT high.
And two of their losses came to Franny and Naz! Gotta love the ballsy scheduling.

The new CPL Red format is gonna lead to some interesting "CCL-esque" outcomes where you have a team like Kenwood that finished 6th in the conference but is more than capable of dealing damage in the playoffs.
 
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This captures the majority of obvious upsets IMO.

Besides the CPS schools that are playing each other in round 1 (which there seems to be a lot of this year), the only realistic opportunities I see for R1 CPS wins are:
  • Morgan Park (5A) - could go deep IMO
  • Simeon (6A) - I don't know much about Normal West so I could be off, but Simeon won't be outgunned
  • Whitney Young (7A) in ROUND 2 - This is a really good WY team and I would give them a shot against Jacobs/B-B winner if they get past Kenwood in R1.
On the flip side, I don't think there is a single CCL school that shouldn't be a heavy R1 favorite (to a non-CCL school).
Your general point is valid, but Marmion should not be considered a heavy favorite against Rochelle. Perhaps you do not consider Marmion a legitimate CCL school since it is a fairly recent addition to the CCL/ESCC.
 
Your general point is valid, but Marmion should not be considered a heavy favorite against Rochelle. Perhaps you do not consider Marmion a legitimate CCL school since it is a fairly recent addition to the CCL/ESCC.
Nope, that was an oversight on my part. Definitely the exception to the rule. Should be an interesting game - they both beat mutual opponent Marian Catholic by almost the exact same margin (14 pts, 15 pts).
 
Nope, that was an oversight on my part. Definitely the exception to the rule. Should be an interesting game - they both beat mutual opponent Marian Catholic by almost the exact same margin (14 pts, 15 pts).
Rochelle beat Marian Catholic by 25 points.
 
Sandburg over Stevenson
Maine South over Naperville North
Edwardsville over York

Lincoln Way Central over Maine West
Lincoln Way West over Pekin
Mt Carmel over Harlem
Hersey over Prospect

Kaneland over Belvidere North

Freeport over Woodstock North
 
Lots of interesting games this year...

I'll stick to 1A-4A... and just posting games I think COULD potentially see upsets.

1A
Aurora (Chistian) @ LeRoy
Stockton @ Princeville
Hope @ Newman CC
Routt @ Casey-Westfield

2A
Shelbyville @ Pana
North Mac @ ALAH

3A
Tolono Unity @ Roxana
Mt. Carmel @ Sullivan (Okaw Valley)
DuQuoin @ Monticello

4A
Geneseo @ Chicago Sullivan
Chicago DePaul @ Chicago Dyett
St. Laurence @ Richmond-Burton
Boylan @ Chicago South Shore
Mt. Zion @ Carterville
U-High @ Manteno
Not having BC (12) over GNW (5) in 1A is a take or Galena over Stark County. Tuscola over Cumberland is another one.
 
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