Through 8 weeks unofficially counted 215 teams with h 5 or more wins.
256 playoff teams so. 41 four won teams need to win to avoid 4-5 team.
I counted 61 I think four win teams currently
Week 9 Key Games
- Thread starter Nevada Dude
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256 playoff teams so. 41 four won teams need to win to avoid 4-5 team.
I counted 61 I think four win teams currently
Well if half the 4-4a win that means 250 are on playoffs with 5 or more wins and 6 get in with 4 wins.
I will have to look see how many games match 4-4 vs 4-4 how many match 4-4 in nonwinnable game and how many match 4-4 against a bottom feeder. That’s I think a good way to guesstimate how many 4-4 teams should get to 5-4.
Sycamore might be the most overlooked team in the state
Pretty much any CCL team
Week 9 games between two 5-3 teams can be a war. Coming into Round 1 at 6-3 compared to 5-4 is a world of difference. Richards/Reavis and Lockport/Andrew are 2 such games.
I saw that last eve…and I agree.
What else is out there?
I have one more…. Naper North vs Naper Central… both 6-2. And here’s another one… there’s more than a chance these two could play again in round 1, no matter who wins. That would mean they
Played THREE TIMES in one season.
DVC and West Suburban are a marriage waiting to happen…. And needs to happen.
I' ve seen every playoff Dukane team in person already minus STCN
Forfeit or not… put it in the W column for Pekin. East Peoria was beat 52-0 by Streator. Streator gets running clocked by many of the ICE teams.
i see Edgy at Batavia next Friday versus St. Charles NorthI have a feeling Edgy might find himself in Elmhurst next Friday
NT @ MS
Trevians season on the line. Oh the drama!
Trevians season on the line. Oh the drama!
Althoff can and should beat Alton. That gives them five wins, four on the field, playing mostly 4/5A schools and they will be in 2A. Might be a crappy draw for someone.
I don't see how it can be avoided. Every year at least a handful of conference winners with losing records get in. Moreover, the playoffs require 256 teams (8×32). But less than 500 teams still play 11 man IHSA football. So more than half of all teams will get in. I'm not that great at math, for me college calculus was like crash tests and I was the dummy. But it seems like roughly half of all schools almost have to have losing seasons which would not l eave enough with winning seasons to fill all 256 slots
No matter where you go, there are some real GREAT games! Plus, seeing Batavia twice wouldn’t be adventurous!
Lol
East would beat them 9 times out of 10 but yes you always have a chance, although I wouldn’t bet on them unless going for the long shot. 👍
Purely unofficial as I am old and even adding numbers is a challenge. This is what I got today from the IHSA website.Please don't etch it in stone.
256 playoff qualifiers
220 teams currently have 5 or more wins
That means 36 teams currently with 4 wins would have to win Week 9 to keep 4-5 non leaugue champ from making the playoffs for the very first time.
There are 68 teams currently with 4 wins. Those teams are involved in a total of 60 games in Week 9.
Week 9, there are 8 games in which both teams have 4-4 records, so we know already that at least 228 teams will have at least 5 wins on Saturday night.
That leaves 52 games involving a 4-4 team playing a non- 4-4 team in Week 9. If 28 of those 52 win, we will have 256 teams with 5 victories and non 4-5 non-league champ will qualify. If fewer than 28 win, then obviously at least one 4-win non-league champ will qualify for the very first time.
Here's the Week 9 breakdown in terms of quality of opponent for the 52 4-4 not playing another 4-4 team.
5 are playing an 0-8 team.
5 are playing a 1-7 team.
6 are playing a 2-6 team.
6 are playing a 3-5 team.
1 is playing a 3-4 team from out of state.
So, 23 4-4 teams are playing a sub-.500. team
12 are playing a 5-3 team
7 are playing a 6-2 team
6 are playing a 7-1 team
4 are playing an 8-0 team
So 29 4-4 teams are playing a above-.500 team
That's 52 games total, and again, 28 wins are needed to get 256 teams to the five-win plateau and knock out every 4-5 non-league champ.
Note: Chicago Carver is only 4-3 on the season as a season-opening game that got halted was called a non-contest. However, Carver plays one of the bottom feeders in Week 9 and is sure to 5-3. In terms of significance of the game ending in a no-contest ruling, the only team that could be affected is Chicago Vocational. CVS is 3-5 and would be 4-5 with a Week 9 win. Currently, CVS has 44 playoff points while competing for possible playoff spots with other teams that could finish 4-5. If Carver had won the Thornton Fractional North game, CVS would now have 45 playoff points instead of 44. TF North is a bottom feeder and a win/loss vs. Carver in the record book would have no affect on whether or not an opponent during the season could finish 4-5 and make or miss the playoffs because of the no-contest ruling. Obviously, a playoff point not awarded will affect the seeding of teams in the playoffs, but it won't affect being in or out of the posteason, with the possible exception of CVS.
Finally (yeah), here is an unofficial list of the teams that could finish 4-5 (meaning they are 4-4 or 3-5 now) and are at the top. currently in the playoff points tiebreaker.
1) Buffalo Grove (4-4) 50
2-3) Nazareth Academy (4-4) & St.Patrick (4-4) 46
4-6) Wheaton-Warrenville South (3-5), St. Laurence (3-5) & Herrin (3-5) 45
7-10) Oak Park-River Forest (4-4), Providence Catholic (4-4), Barrington (3-5) & Chicago Vocational (3-5).
Basically, if your team is not listed among the 10 directly above, you need your team to get to five wins by Saturday night, or it's time for basketball season.
256 playoff qualifiers
220 teams currently have 5 or more wins
That means 36 teams currently with 4 wins would have to win Week 9 to keep 4-5 non leaugue champ from making the playoffs for the very first time.
There are 68 teams currently with 4 wins. Those teams are involved in a total of 60 games in Week 9.
Week 9, there are 8 games in which both teams have 4-4 records, so we know already that at least 228 teams will have at least 5 wins on Saturday night.
That leaves 52 games involving a 4-4 team playing a non- 4-4 team in Week 9. If 28 of those 52 win, we will have 256 teams with 5 victories and non 4-5 non-league champ will qualify. If fewer than 28 win, then obviously at least one 4-win non-league champ will qualify for the very first time.
Here's the Week 9 breakdown in terms of quality of opponent for the 52 4-4 not playing another 4-4 team.
5 are playing an 0-8 team.
5 are playing a 1-7 team.
6 are playing a 2-6 team.
6 are playing a 3-5 team.
1 is playing a 3-4 team from out of state.
So, 23 4-4 teams are playing a sub-.500. team
12 are playing a 5-3 team
7 are playing a 6-2 team
6 are playing a 7-1 team
4 are playing an 8-0 team
So 29 4-4 teams are playing a above-.500 team
That's 52 games total, and again, 28 wins are needed to get 256 teams to the five-win plateau and knock out every 4-5 non-league champ.
Note: Chicago Carver is only 4-3 on the season as a season-opening game that got halted was called a non-contest. However, Carver plays one of the bottom feeders in Week 9 and is sure to 5-3. In terms of significance of the game ending in a no-contest ruling, the only team that could be affected is Chicago Vocational. CVS is 3-5 and would be 4-5 with a Week 9 win. Currently, CVS has 44 playoff points while competing for possible playoff spots with other teams that could finish 4-5. If Carver had won the Thornton Fractional North game, CVS would now have 45 playoff points instead of 44. TF North is a bottom feeder and a win/loss vs. Carver in the record book would have no affect on whether or not an opponent during the season could finish 4-5 and make or miss the playoffs because of the no-contest ruling. Obviously, a playoff point not awarded will affect the seeding of teams in the playoffs, but it won't affect being in or out of the posteason, with the possible exception of CVS.
Finally (yeah), here is an unofficial list of the teams that could finish 4-5 (meaning they are 4-4 or 3-5 now) and are at the top. currently in the playoff points tiebreaker.
1) Buffalo Grove (4-4) 50
2-3) Nazareth Academy (4-4) & St.Patrick (4-4) 46
4-6) Wheaton-Warrenville South (3-5), St. Laurence (3-5) & Herrin (3-5) 45
7-10) Oak Park-River Forest (4-4), Providence Catholic (4-4), Barrington (3-5) & Chicago Vocational (3-5).
Basically, if your team is not listed among the 10 directly above, you need your team to get to five wins by Saturday night, or it's time for basketball season.
Not seeing it. Glenbard North is 3-5 and has 42 playoff points.
In Week 9, it can get a mamixum of five more points ... 2 from vWeek 9 wins from its two non-conference foes, and 3 from wins in the Week 9's three other conference games.
That's a total of 47.
Every team above them in the playoff points list is going to add at least 3 points in Week 9 because of conference matchups and certain blowouts.Buffalo Grove, for example, is not going to beat 8-0 Hersey so the Bison will finish with a 4-5 record and at a minimum 53 playoff points.
I think that for Glenbard North to be a playoff entrant at 4-5 with 47 playoff points, It's going to need all the 3-5 teams that currently have more playoff points than your team to. lose on Week 9. The odds of that happening are not great, but of course, I could be wrong.
Great work, but Naz, St. Pats, and Providence should win to get to 5 wins as they are playing either 4-4 teams or 3-5 teams so that will open so more chance for those 4-5 teams with 42 playoff points as of now. The only 3-5 team that could win is WWS vs GBN or Barrington. The other 3-5 teams play better teams (maybe Depaul they play a 2-6 team.).
| Buffalo Grove | 4-5 | 50 | ||
| LaGrange Park (Nazareth Academy) | 5-4 | 46 | ||
| Chicago (St. Patrick) | 5-4 | 46 | ||
| New Lenox (Providence Catholic) | 5-4 | 44 | ||
| Oak Park (River Forest) | 4-5 | 44 | ||
| Lisle (Benet Academy) | 4-5 | 42 | ||
| Beardstown | 5-4 | 42 | ||
| Rolling Meadows | 4-5 | 42 | ||
| Hinsdale (Central) | 4-5 | 42 | ||
| Rock Island (H.S.) | 4-5 | 41 | ||
| Winnetka (New Trier) | 4-5 | 41 | ||
| Mt. Vernon (H.S.) | 4-5 | 40 |
| Wheaton (Warrenville South) | 4-5 | 45 | ||
| Herrin (H.S.) | 3-6 | 45 | ||
| Burbank (St. Laurence) | 3-6 | 45 | ||
| Bloomington (H.S.) | 3-6 | 45 | ||
| Barrington | 4-5 | 44 | ||
| Chicago (C. Vocational) | 3-6 | 44 | ||
| Chicago (DePaul) | 4-5 (Maybe) | 43 | ||
| Kewanee (H.S.) | 3-6 | 43 | ||
| Carol Stream (Glenbard North) | 3-5 (Plays WWS) | 42 |
Negative on that. When a 4-4 team such as Naz, st pats, providence win week 9 to get to 5 wins it reduces the number of available spots. Buffalo grove is not going to win week 9 so let’s give them the top playoff point team with a 4-5 record.
Negative on that. Every time a 4-4 team wins week 9 it takes a possible spot away from a 4-5 team. If enough 4-4 teams win week 9 there will be zero 4-5 teams in the playoffs. I think Buffalo grove is a lock to be the first 4-5 team in line to quality for the playoffs. Every time a 4 win team wins week 9 it reduces by one the number of spots available for a 4-5 team to quality. It seems clear Buffalo Grove is the number 1 4 win team if a 4-5?team qualifies. What I m saying is that providence and st Patrick and Nazareth all will be ahead of glenbard whether they finish 5-4 or 4-5. There are just too many teams that either will log a fifth win or finish 4-5 with more playoff points then glenbard. I mean Buffalo grove could in some parallel universe win on Friday to finish 5-4. They would no longer be ahead of Glenbard on the lust of 4-5 teams but it would mean one less spot for a glenbard 4-5 team to qualify.
in my opinion the math fir Glenbard is not there.
There are 52 games by my unofficial count in week 9 involving a 4-4 team playing a team that is not also 4-4.
If 28. Of the 4-4 teams win then zero 4-5 teams will qualify.
If 27 of the 4-4 teams win then Buffalo grove will be the only 4-5 team to qualify for the tourney.
I think it’s a long long shot for Glenbard to play as it needs a lot of help in week 9. It will be interesting if any of the places that collect prep scores on Friday will expand their score list to include non chicago area teams playing games that are relevant for this week only because of playoff implications.
My guess is no chance.
Yes but on my list benet is not included. If Naz wins benet can’t make it with playoff points. If benet wins they make it and Naz has an excellent chance of getting in. That is why Naz is on the list snd benet is not. The list is only for the top 10 teams for playoff points and a 4-5 record. If Naz wins they come off the 4-5 list and everybody 4-5 moves up a spot. But there. Now is also 1 less playoff spot for a 4-5?team to get in.
@The_Oldfan Got some facts off......there are no conference leaders (soon to be champs) with losing records. There are also MORE than 500 teams on the IHSA 11 man standings (513 to be exact).
Once all the games from week 8 were posted, there are 228 teams with at least five wins. And 67 teams have 4 wins. Without going into favorites, if half win, there will be more than 256 teams with at least 5 wins and no 4 win teams are getting in. Now, it's possible a large number of the 4 win teams lose and a 4-5 team makes it in. But, statistically, that is more than likely not happening.
Well.....there's only 30ish slots available and 59 4-4s playing this weekend. I don't have the time to project all of those 4-4s......but I guess mathematically it's possible....
I only count 220 teams with 5 or more wins from the ihsa playoff outlook. That would increase the chances of a 4-5 team getting in.
There are 8 games this week that match up 4-4 teams so at the minimum there will be 228 teams with 5-plus wins.
That also reduces the number of 4 win teams by a total of 16 so that instead of 67 4-win teams needing to win to get to 5 there really are 51. That’s 51 4-win teams playing for 28 spots (256-228=28)
If the 51 games with a 4-4 team playing split 50/50 then 26 would win and 25 would lose. That scenario would put 2 4-5 teams in playoffs with Buffalo Grove being one of them. They are 4-4 now and have basically a non-winnable game this week. But they wil have the most playoff points of any 4-5 team.
You would need many upsets from a 4-4 team to reach 256 and you have 8 4-4 teams that are playing each other
Naz vs Benet
Morrison vs Erie
Richards vs Ag Science
Maine West vs Highland
St Pats vs Viator
Noble vs Clark
Toulon vs Princeville
Nokomis vs Dupo
I will give a few upsets that need to happen
Rock Island over Quincy
Hinsdale over Glenbard west
Orion over Rockridge
Rolling Meadows over Mt.Prospect
Buffalo Grove over Hersey
Oak Forest over York
Bartlett over Glenbard East
Joliet West over Plainfield South
New Trier over Maine South
Lincoln over Troy Triad
Flora over Carmi
Morton over Washington
Marian Catholic over Carmel
Mt.Vernon over Mt.Carmel
Lisle over Peotone
Deer Creek over Eureka
Hillcrest over Oak Forest
Illini west over Macomb
Casey Westfield over Olney
My projection is that 4-5 4-5 teams make the field and you have a few games in 1A -3A that can go either way with a 4-4 team so it could go up
1-Buffalo Grove
2-Oak Park River
3-Barrington if the beat Fremd
4-Benet
5-Rolling Meadows
6-Hinsdale Central
(Wheaton Warrenville wins they are in ) up to 2nd team in
7-Glenbard North
What about DePaul Prep? Play 2-6 MCC if they win they get to 4-5. Currently have 43 playoff points, and will likely be At 47 by the end of week 9. Where would they end up on this list?
A lot of great posts here, but I want to point out that Mt. Vernon has been given a playoff berth for winning their conference. They are 4-4, so if they don't upset Mt. Carmel they will get in with a losing record. That's one less spot open to the 4-5 hopefuls.
