Week 7 Playoff Outlook

[stl705]

Notes:

-Richmond-Burton currently largest 3A school.

-5A North/South line imo would include Lemont, JCA, and Providence Catholic in the South.

-Currently 5 teams in playoffs with 3-4 record: Naz (42), BR (42), Bolingbrook (40), Plainfield North (39) and Homewood Flossmoore (39). Sterling and Woodstock Marian are first off (38).

 

[cigaros]

Looking over the past 13 years of qualifiers, there are statistically significant differences in the 4A, 5A, and 8A lists. Week 8 will do a lot to clean things up. If the predictors and on field play go as they logically seem, 8A will pull 2 schools form the current 7A list.

Glenbard West & Edwardsville

This will leave Glenbard East as the largest in 7A at 2255 where they last played in 2018, having been placed in 8A since 2019.

The following are unlikely to qualify:

Bartlett
Lake Park
Waubonsie Valley
Bolingbrook
Homewood-Flossmoor
Conant
Bloom
Stagg
Evanston
Rich Township

 

[cornerrat]

Notes:

-Richmond-Burton currently largest 3A school.

-5A North/South line imo would include Lemont, JCA, and Providence Catholic in the South.

-Currently 5 teams in playoffs with 3-4 record: Naz (42), BR (42), Bolingbrook (40), Plainfield North (39) and Homewood Flossmoore (39). Sterling and Woodstock Marian are first off (38).

All.... The Playoff Outlook numbers come out Saturday morning . But it gets updated Sunday morning after the Saturday games are factored in which slightly changes the overall numbers. RB is back in 4A and Lemont in 6A. But those two for sure are bubble teams and when the qualifiers are announced could shift down again. Ratsy

 

[Wittymoniker1]

Just in case Rita looses their next two games, can she get in with a 4 - 5 record? The odds?

 

[4Afan]

Just in case Rita looses their next two games, can she get in with a 4 - 5 record? The odds?

too tough to say until after next week. Still too many 4-3, 3-4, and 2-5 teams to know with any kind of accuracy. With 4-5 teams you need to look at their entire schedule looks like since it will come down to playoff points if more than 1 4-5 team is to get in.

 

[stl705]

Just in case Rita looses their next two games, can she get in with a 4 - 5 record? The odds?

IMO odds are very good for Rita. Currently 44 playoff points is 2 more than the highest 3-4 team. I think they are in right now with 4 wins by my estimates.

 

[Wittymoniker1]

IMO odds are very good for Rita. Currently 44 playoff points is 2 more than the highest 3-4 team. I think they are in right now with 4 wins by my estimates.

Wow! Good to know. Would she be the only possible 4 - 5 team in 7A? I ask because if there is only one 4 - 5 team (and it'd be SR with 44 playoff points right now), then that team (Rita) would be seeded 32 and probably would play #1 seed MC, provided MC beats LA and Rita loses next two games. I like looking at hypotheticals. Thanks.

 

[4Afan]

Wow! Good to know. Would she be the only possible 4 - 5 team in 7A? I ask because if there is only one 4 - 5 team (and it'd be SR with 44 playoff points right now), then that team (Rita) would be seeded 32 and probably would play #1 seed MC, provided MC beats LA and Rita loses next two games. I like looking at hypotheticals. Thanks.

It wouldn't matter the class, as the IHSA first takes the 256 qualifiers and then divides them by class. So if there happens to be only 254 qualifiers that are 5-4 are better then the two 4-5 teams with the most playoff points, regardless of class will get in. Rita would likely be one of them with that many points, but they hypothetically could get beat out by a random 3A team who happens to end up with more playoff points.

In your hypothetical, yes, Rita would be #32 in 7A and play at the #1 seed.

As an update, there are currently 174 teams with 5 wins or more, so there 82 remaining spots to be claimed in the last two weeks of the season. Rita is the highest ranked 4-3 team with 44 points, Providence has 43 points.

 

[cornerrat]

It wouldn't matter the class, as the IHSA first takes the 256 qualifiers and then divides them by class. So if there happens to be only 254 qualifiers that are 5-4 are better then the two 4-5 teams with the most playoff points, regardless of class will get in. Rita would likely be one of them with that many points, but they hypothetically could get beat out by a random 3A team who happens to end up with more playoff points.

In your hypothetical, yes, Rita would be #32 in 7A and play at the #1 seed.

As an update, there are currently 174 teams with 5 wins or more, so there 82 remaining spots to be claimed in the last two weeks of the season. Rita is the highest ranked 4-3 team with 44 points, Providence has 43 points.

All.... It appears the only other teams in this unique group is Nazareth and Brother Rice with 42 points. I like St. Rita over St. Laurence this week so they will get at least five.

NLP has Mt. Carmel Friday and will be 4-4 heading into week nine playing Benet for five wins. Brother Rice one would assume will handle the Broncos setting up a big one the following week home against the Mustangs for win number five.

Last up the Roadrunners a favorite against Marian would put them at 4-4. And another big game in week nine when they play the Spartans at home.

The potential for a crazy amount of great games in the CCL coming up. Opportunities to avoid that 4-5 should be available. Ratsy

 

[olderbytheminute]

The IHSA playoff outlook has the current list of playoff teams if the season ended today, which of course, it doesn't.
In 7A and 8A, because of the 1-32 seeding, you can immediately figure out who plays who if the season ended today, which of course it doesn't.
The other 6 classes are harder to do for matchups because they play north/south 1-16 which is difficult to predict with 100 pct. accuracy.
As for a 4-5 team making the playoffs, as of right now, the IHSA has two 3-win teams qualifying with two weeks to go.
Obviously, some 4-3 teams will lose their next two to finish 4-5, and some 3-4 teams will win out to finish 5-4.
To give St. Rita/Brother Rice followers an idea of if their team can get in at 4-5 with a week 9 loss and a 4-5 finish, I suggest looking at the remaining schedules for all 3-4 teams that have a "high" playoff point total through 7 games.
The reason I write is that the high point suggests that the 3-4 team has already played its powerful opponents and has two winnable games remaining. It also saves the time from looking at every 3-4 team and discovering that their final two games are vs. 6-0 and 7-0 teams and are non-winnable.
Once you have done that, you will be able to guess how many current 3-4 teams will be added to the 5-4 list at the end of the season.
Then check the schedule for every current 4-3 team and list how many of those schools are likely to finish with at least one more win and you will be able to guess the total number of teams to add to the 5-4 list at the end of the season.
Then all you do is add the number of teams you come up with as a guess to finish 5-4, and add that total to the currrent number of teams already at 5 wins which a previous poster said is 174.
If the total is 256 or more, no 4-5 team will qualify by your guess. If the total is 255 or less, then 1 or more 4-5 teams will make the playoffs, with a Catholic League team likely at the top of the 4-5. list.
Probably won't take you as long to do as it seems here.
Of course, if St. Rita and Brother Rice would both win this week, and then Brother Rice would beat St. Rita in week 9, both would be 5-4 and qualify.
Then it would be some other fans sweating out the 4-5 issue.