Thanks for the insight.Biggest issue with the NIPL is classification and travel.
There are 24 CCL/ESCC schools. Over a dozen other Chicagoland private schools, mostly smaller. Plus a fair number of schools dotting the state (SHG, Ottawa Marquette, Peru St. Bede, Boylan, Quincy ND, Peoria ND, Althoff, Alleman, etc.
Then there is the question of including lab schools or not as well as open enrollment CPS.
But classification is the biggest issue. 2 classes likely not enough to satisfy the constituents as schools of about 400 do not want to be lumped in with Marist. Realistically, you would need 3 classes to satisfy enough constituents. And would the outlying non Chicagoland schools want to join given the postseason travel requirements? And would they still play IHSA schools in the regular season, which would ease the scheduling burden and thus allow more of those downstate schools to choose the private postseason.
Other big elephant in the room is MC and LA. They are recruiting at and performing at levels above their CCL/ESCC peers right now. Their enrollment combined with football success over the last decade leaves them as just different that the rest. Even Marist, BR, and Rita aren't on a level playing surface with them. MC and LA likely prefer playing 8A public schools to playing Brother Rice and St. Rita in an annual semifinal before playing each other every year in a NIPL title game.
But if the rest of the privates break off, would the publics really still want to include the two most dominant large school private schools in their 8A playoff? I believe Texas uses this model with the biggest private schools playing with the publics. Not sure that would be well received here. But I don't think the NIPL offers MC or LA what they need.
And other sports are a whole other question. Who knows if other sports would break away or if the majority of private schools even have an appetite for breaking away in all other sports. This is all conjecture until the IHSA membership forces a hand to be played and the answers to those questions would depend on how uncomfortable the IHSA decisions make private schools.
Even if privates are forced to their breaking point, I'm curious as to how the IHSA would respond. Would they allow NIPL for just football? Would they allow NIPL schools to schedule IHSA schools for regular season?
Let's say there's a total of 48 schools that would join NIPL, that's 3 classes of 16 schools. This is convenient for playoff purposes numbers wise but then all schools would make the playoffs unless the playoffs were shortened and only included 8 teams per class. Since this would be separate from the IHSA would NIPL continue to classify based on size or would they use their own formula to classify based on competitiveness?
I could be completely wrong but I just don't see how this works, mainly because there doesn't seem to be enough potential participants throughout the state. I don't see any CPS schools wanting to join this.