It seems there is interest here on 4-5 teams making the playoffs...particularly Naperville Central, which likely is going to finish 4-5 and will also likely be the TOP 4-5 team in regard to playoff points.
So here is what I have, and this is just me trying to do some math, which is not even remotely my best subject.
Here goes:
For starters, the Chicago Public League teams that currently have FOUR wins are not included in this breakdown as the assumption is they will not be able to take the field this weekend to try and log a fifth win. If they do, well, there are SEVEN Chicago Public teams currently sitting on four wins and scheduled to play this weekend, but I am leaving them out of the equation based on everything I've been reading online today.
So, through right now, 222 teams have won five or more games.
However, one of them is Chicago Simeon, and because they are short a game, they are not included in this playoff breakdown because they won have the required eight games in assuming the strike continues. Simeon is out for the same reason the seven CPL teams currently with FOUR wins are out in this narative.
So, with 256 playoff spots available, 221 teams currently have five or more wins. In addition, a 4-4 team (Alton Marquette has clinched their league title so they are also in the postseason, so with five wins as the base line, we have 222 teams in (221 with five wins plus Alton Marquette), leaving 34 spots for teams currently 4-4.
Right now, not counting Alton Marquette, there are 62 teams with 4-4 records. However, 12 of those 62 play other 4-4 teams, which means 6 have to win and finish 5-4, and 6 have to lose to finish 4-5.
So realistically, there are 50 teams left vying for 28 spots (34 spots minus 6 sure winners in games between 4-4 teams).
Here is the outlook for those 50 teams in Week 9:
TWO 4-4 teams are playing 8-0 teams.
SIX 4-4 teams are playing 7-1 teams.
TEN 4-4 teams are playing 6-2 teams.
FOUR 4-4 teams are playing 5-3 teams.
ELEVEN 4-4 teams are playing 3-5 teams.
SEVEN 4-4 teams are playing 2-6 teams.
SIX 4-4 teams are playing 1-7 teams.
FOUR 4-4 teams are playing 0-8 teams.
So, if you do the math and team with the better record wins this weekend, then 22 of the 4-4 teams will lose and finish 4-5, and 28 of the 4-4 teams will win and finish 5-4.
If exactly 28 win, then EVERY 5-4 team will qualify for the postseason, and ZERO 4-5 teams will qualify.
If fewer than 28 4-4 teams win this weekend, then at least ONE 4-5 team will be in the playoffs .... hello Naperville Central!!!
Now, lest anybody think this is clear-cut.....it's NOT.
There is a problem I cannot solve in the Southwest Prairie East.
Currently, Plainfield East (4-4 overall), Plainfield South (4-4 overall) and Joliet West (3-5 overall) are all tied for first at 3-1 and have gone 1-1 against each other. In addition, all three teams play bottom-feeders this weekend and are pretty much a lock to finish 4-1 and in a three-way tie for first place.
Plainfield East and Plainfield South would each finish 5-4 overall and they are factored into the outlook for the 50 teams with 4-4 records playing 1-7 teams this weekend.
Joliet West (3-5 overall) is NOT factored in anywhere, but they play at 1-7 team also and likely will finish 4-5. If they are 4-5 and do NOT win the conference, then the above numbers I think are pretty good. However, if Joliet West wins the conference automatic bid, then that will reduce the total number of playoff spots available for 5-4 teams by ONE, from 28 to 27.
That's the best I can do. I don't know much about any of these teams but I know from reading there is definitely interest in the chances of a 3-4 team getting into the playoffs.
Also, remember these numbers exclude the Chicago Public League teams that do NOT already have five wins, and also excludes Simeon for the previously stated reason.
Have a good night.
