Massey Ranking Accuracy- Week 1

[wickerpark wildcat]

Accidentally posted this 1st on paid board, apologies for duplicate.
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I only learned of the Massey ratings from this board & then added them to the dashboard I created with team schedules & stats from 2023. Know we need to take those rankings (in particular pre-season & early season) with grain of salt. Nevertheless, thought I would see how they held up. So, I took Massey pre-season rankings and compared to week 1 results. I assumed the higher ranked team would be favored, so ignoring home field etc. Here goes:

Overall: Out of the 228 in state games that I could match a pre-season ranking for both teams, Massey would predict 172/228 correctly- 75%

Top 10 upsets by ranking difference:

#104 Chicago (De La Salle) 0 <> #291 Summit (Argo) 45

#316 Chester 35 <> #167 DuQuoin (H.S.) 27

#362 Erie [E.-Prophetstown Coop] 13 <> #234 Kewanee (H.S.) 6

#191 Plainfield (South) 3 <> #75 Yorkville (H.S.) 0

#358 Elmwood [E.-Brimfield Coop] 41 <> #250 Knoxville 28

#374 North Chicago 32 <> #274 Wheeling 0

#186 Plainfield (Central) 14 <> #284 Waukegan (H.S.) 16

#277 Franklin Park-Northlake (Leyden) 30 <> #188 Highland Park 27

#285 Dakota 0 <> #373 Dwight [Dwight/Gardner-So. Wilmington Coop] 49

#302 Manteno 54 <> #218 Sandwich 32

 

[Wittymoniker1]

With that 75%, I assume the "spread" isn't taken into account. I wonder within that 75% how close Massey was with the spreads. Good stuff!

 

[wickerpark wildcat]

With that 75%, I assume the "spread" isn't taken into account. I wonder within that 75% how close Massey was with the spreads. Good stuff!

It's just straight up W/L & whether the favorite won or not. Not aware of an easy way to grab the projected point difference in bulk, but I'm crazy enough to try to figure it out 😂

 

[crusader_of_90]

That is a lot of data entry or was this an upload of a batch?

 

[wickerpark wildcat]

That is a lot of data entry or was this an upload of a batch?

Steve Soucie was kind enough to provide me access to his spreadsheet where he tracks schedules and scores. The Massey Ratings I brought into a spreadsheet in bulk, although its formatting doesn't come over great, so some work (formulas) to clean that up. Biggest headache is probably matching up how the schools' names are presented in different places, e.g. is it Mt. Carmel or Mount Carmel, or Chicago (Mt. Carmel), etc.

All that is leading to the dashboard I've published (view on large screen in full screen mode).

 

[crusader_of_90]

Impressive work! Thanks for sharing!

 

[RockSoup]

I think I’m falling in love…

 

[Silver Rain]

You, sir, are the Nate Silver of high school football.

 

[jwarigaku]

Steve Soucie was kind enough to provide me access to his spreadsheet where he tracks schedules and scores. The Massey Ratings I brought into a spreadsheet in bulk, although its formatting doesn't come over great, so some work (formulas) to clean that up. Biggest headache is probably matching up how the schools' names are presented in different places, e.g. is it Mt. Carmel or Mount Carmel, or Chicago (Mt. Carmel), etc.

All that is leading to the dashboard I've published (view on large screen in full screen mode).

Wickerpark,

Perhaps you can set up nested if/then statements for 4 columns with the 2 sets of data(predicted vs actual scores) and then do an index look up to flag the games that are outliers automatically and run the macro each week.

 

[RockSoup]

Wickerpark,

Perhaps you can set up nested if/then statements for 4 columns with the 2 sets of data(predicted vs actual scores) and then do an index look up to flag the games that are outliers automatically and run the macro each week.

What is this 2008?

 

[jwarigaku]

What is this 2008?

In so many similar, but different ways, all at the same time!

 

[wickerpark wildcat]

Wickerpark,

Perhaps you can set up nested if/then statements for 4 columns with the 2 sets of data(predicted vs actual scores) and then do an index look up to flag the games that are outliers automatically and run the macro each week.

When I 1st saw this, I thought it was a crazy request because I didn't think I could get the predictions in batch from Massey, but then I found that he posted his formula for predictions on the site. I have not done proper QA on this, but here goes in the 25 games that differed most from predictions (combination of upsets and favored teams greatly exceeding the "spread"):

Game	Massey Predicted Score	Actual Score	Diff	Upset
Chicago (South Shore) vs Chicago (Curie)	17-25	68-0	76	1
Summit (Argo) @ Chicago (De La Salle)	11-39	45-0	73	1
Dwight [Dwight/Gardner-So. Wilmington Coop] vs Dakota	19-28	49-0	58	1
Flossmoor (Homewood-F.) @ Bolingbrook	25-29	56-6	54	1
Benton @ Carterville	22-28	41-0	47	1
Columbia @ Breese (Mater Dei)	18-28	35-0	45	1
Libertyville vs Lemont (H.S.)	23-25	43-0	45	1
Harvard @ Lisle (Sr.)	20-28	42-7	43	1
Clinton vs Wood River (East Alton-W.R.)	32-18	57-0	43	0
North Chicago vs Wheeling	18-29	32-0	43	1
Niantic (Sangamon Valley) [Coop] vs Oakland [Tri-County Coop]	27-19	49-0	41	0
Park Ridge (Maine East) @ Aurora (East)	19-32	34-6	41	1
Palatine (Fremd) @ Lake Zurich	17-24	31-0	38	1
Rockford (Lutheran) @ Winnebago	30-23	49-6	36	0
Tinley Park (H.S.) @ Dolton (Thornridge)	31-17	50-0	36	0
Harrisburg @ Anna (A.-Jonesboro) [Coop]	30-19	47-0	36	0
Carrollton vs Beardstown	26-21	46-6	35	0
Monmouth (M.-Roseville) vs Aledo (Mercer County)	26-24	50-14	34	0
Wilmington vs Chicago (C. Hope Academy)	29-24	44-6	33	0
Downers Grove (North) @ O'Fallon (H.S.)	29-19	42-0	32	0
Decatur (MacArthur) @ Mattoon	32-23	47-6	32	0
Dunlap vs Galesburg (H.S.)	33-17	48-0	32	0
Dixon (H.S.) vs Stillman Valley	30-20	56-14	32	0
Bensenville (Fenton) @ Elgin (H.S.)	21-31	35-14	31	1
Bloomington (H.S.) @ Danville (H.S.)	23-27	41-14	31	1

 

[wickerpark wildcat]

I think I’m falling in love…

If this was in reference to dashboard, thanks! I've made some updates, including bringing in the 2024 results. Interested to hear any feedback.

 

[Snetsrak61]

Good stuff.

I'd imagine once conference play picks up these predictions become much harder to predict.