I think Iowa City is a must win. Oswego should be a dogfight. If you go 0-2 to start, 5 wins is probably off the table. Even 1-1 makes it a tall order. So really I see Oswego as the huge barometer game. Win that fairly handily and it's "game on" for a big season. Win it close and it's still a sigh of relief. Lose it and all of a sudden it becomes necessary to win one of the coin flip or underdog games (Marist, MC, Naz, PC). That's even putting Fenwick and ND in the "got to have it" as wins category, but they are far from guarantees.
That offensive line really should be all kinds of fun to watch if you're a football trench nerd, though. There are nice pieces back on defense. If the defense can become a well above average unit and the offense can find a way to add a consistently effective (even if only used as necessary) passing game to complement their mammoth and experience offensive line and stable of running backs, then the sky is the limit and you could see 7 plus wins.
Most likely outcome is 5 or 6 wins.
3-4 wins if things go south. 7-8 wins if the offensive line comes out and asserts their dominance like they are capable.
4 wins may be enough to get into the dance once again this year but nobody wants to depend on that.