Intriguing 1st rd games

[DMurph11]

Prairie Ridge vs. Naz: The toughest of game the playoffs for the 5A favorite will likely be in the first round

The St. Francis disrespect here is crazy.

SF just manhandled Nazareth 48 hours ago (no disrespect to the Roadrunners)

Score was 35-17 final and 35-11 midway through the 4th quarter…yet Naz is the team that should be considered PR’s toughest test to the crown?

….You’d think McMillen has these boys playing in their pajamas the way some people are sleeping on them.

 

[Wassup13]

The St. Francis disrespect here is crazy.

SF just manhandled Nazareth 48 hours ago (no disrespect to the Roadrunners)

Score was 35-17 final and 35-11 midway through the 4th quarter…yet Naz is the team that should be considered PR’s toughest test to the crown?

….You’d think McMillen has these boys playing in their pajamas the way some people are sleeping on them.

I dont know if many follow St Francis yet like they should. StF just joined the CCL and the entire CCL does not seem to follow you until you play MC or Loyola for the first time.

Also Naz has such a history playing in recent state title games including 7A and has athletes playing at prominent D1 schools right now with one who may win the Heisman.

No disrespect I think fans in the CCL are just learning about StF and this current St F team can beat anybody.

 

[stl705]

I got Saint Francis winning 5A.

 

[mc140]

I can see Sunk not pulling off the dogs.

When has he ever?

 

[crusader_of_90]

 

[Prep writer]

The St. Francis disrespect here is crazy.

SF just manhandled Nazareth 48 hours ago (no disrespect to the Roadrunners)

Score was 35-17 final and 35-11 midway through the 4th quarter…yet Naz is the team that should be considered PR’s toughest test to the crown?

….You’d think McMillen has these boys playing in their pajamas the way some people are sleeping on them.

I don’t get the obsession for Naz either. They are 4-5. People need to stop focusing on the past. They literally got manhandled at home in a game that in normal years would have knocked them out of the postseason.

 

[JCHillmen]

The St. Francis disrespect here is crazy.

SF just manhandled Nazareth 48 hours ago (no disrespect to the Roadrunners)

Score was 35-17 final and 35-11 midway through the 4th quarter…yet Naz is the team that should be considered PR’s toughest test to the crown?

….You’d think McMillen has these boys playing in their pajamas the way some people are sleeping on them.

Because of one comment that went a little overzealous hyping Naz?

I think most on here presume SF and PR to be the likely frontrunners in 5A.

SF clearly the most talented. PR likely the more well oiled machine even if they don't have quite the stable of horses SF has.

Carmel and Morris may have something to say about all of this too, but I would be shocked if SF and PR aren't the most common picks to win it all in 5A. Maybe Morris because they come out of a more forgiving south, but that is more a product of their softer route to Bloomington.

That semifinal between SF and PR would be exceptional (assuming SF gets by Sycamore and PR gets by Carmel). They can try to play the "nobody respects us" card as anyone can, but I don't think it would match with the reality of how 85% of people actually see the 5A field. If SF isn't the odds on favorite, they are one of the 2-3 most likely title contenders and I don't think there is anyone that would disagree with that.

 

[stl705]

Most intriguing game in round 1? St Charles North at Bradley. This matchup is real interesting to me as it likely set ups a another great game in quarterfinals against GBE to play Batavia in the semis if they get past Normal in rd 2.

 

[lurker74]

Most games will be blowout games and yet another year's reminder there are too many teams in the playoffs.

Sports in general are full of blowouts. Can be talent, coaching, or just one team having a better day, but there will always be lopsided scores.

If you use 3 score difference as the line for "blowout", 5 of last years championship games were blowouts. Six of 2021. Five of 2019. I guess even having 2 teams make it in each class are too many.

In the last 3 seasons, out of 24 championships, there have only been 4 one-score games.

 

[4Afan]

Sports in general are full of blowouts. Can be talent, coaching, or just one team having a better day, but there will always be lopsided scores.

If you use 3 score difference as the line for "blowout", 5 of last years championship games were blowouts. Six of 2021. Five of 2019. I guess even having 2 teams make it in each class are too many.

In the last 3 seasons, out of 24 championships, there have only been 4 one-score games.

While I agree with what you say, what classes were those blowouts in? If it was in the lower classes it can likely be attributed to the IHSA refusing to seed those classes 1-32 to get a true champion.

 

[lurker74]

While I agree with what you say, what classes were those blowouts in? If it was in the lower classes it can likely be attributed to the IHSA refusing to seed those classes 1-32 to get a true champion.

In the last 6 seasons of 7A and 8A, one championship game has been a 1-score game. Batavia over Lake Zurich, 21-14, in 2017. I don't know how many might have had a late score that makes them look like bigger spread than the actual game. But in general, they aren't close.

We all love the games, and there will some great ones sprinkled in, but the majority end up not very close.

 

[STIX815]

Sports in general are full of blowouts. Can be talent, coaching, or just one team having a better day, but there will always be lopsided scores.

If you use 3 score difference as the line for "blowout", 5 of last years championship games were blowouts. Six of 2021. Five of 2019. I guess even having 2 teams make it in each class are too many.

In the last 3 seasons, out of 24 championships, there have only been 4 one-score games.

Going from North/South to a 1-32 format would "help" this part of it, IMO. Look at 4A and 5A this year (its been like this for a while). The northern side of those brackets are completely lopsided as always. It doesn't make any sense to keep it this way. Everyone knows that football played south of I-80 doesn't compare to the northern part of the state anyway (subtle jab to my friends in the south LOL. Hopefully they know what subtle means LOL). However, beyond that, they should ALSO eliminate at least one class. Having 8 classes really waters down the state championships. If you had 7 classes, we eliminate another 32 teams, and additionally moving to 1-32 I think you would really see some competitive football throughout the playoffs. Again just opinions here...

 

[ramblinman]

T minus 7 days for the annual thread from @ramblinman

Needed now more than ever to show those folks jonesin for 9-0 vs 0-9 first round games that they need to be careful what they wish for.

 

[tuccs]

The St. Francis disrespect here is crazy.

SF just manhandled Nazareth 48 hours ago (no disrespect to the Roadrunners)

Score was 35-17 final and 35-11 midway through the 4th quarter…yet Naz is the team that should be considered PR’s toughest test to the crown?

….You’d think McMillen has these boys playing in their pajamas the way some people are sleeping on them.

Clearly the coaching staff at Naz knew they didn't need to win that game to get in and let SF win knowing they will meet again in the playoffs and lull them into a false sense of confidence. Naz also lost to all playoff and championship contenders. I see St francis lost two games one to a playoff team and the other to a team naz beat that will be watching the playoffs from home. Naz is clearly the top dog in 5A...now show some respect to your defending state champ!

I love this time of year and so happy Naz got lucky to get a week 10 game so i can stir the pot one more week.

 

[ramblinman]

Sounds like stating basic facts to me. Kind of a stretch to say he's complaining.

Yup, those were facts alright. Don't you find it interesting, though, that in his effort to educate his followers about their next opponent, he gave them no other facts except Althoff can draw students from the St. Louis metro area?

Actually, it was a brilliant tweet (do they still call them that?). He is setting up his community for a win-win.

If they lose to the big bad private school, then he has given his followers an expedient scapegoat. Despite his school not winning a single game this season against a public school with a winning record, he allows his followers to fantasize about how deep they could have gone in the playoffs if they had faced nothing but public schools with winning records instead.

If they win, then they win with their homegrown boys against all the odds. Everyone is a hero, and they can throw themselves a victory parade through downtown Tuscola. Team members can brag for decades about how they beat a private school. Of course, next year, and despite the fact that they proved that they could beat a private school this year, if they have a similar first round playoff matchup against a private school, you can expect a similar factual tweet from him.

 

[ignazio]

Ramblin: If we had 9-0s and 8-1s facing 0-9s and 1-8 ... what would Immaculate Recuperation do?

 

[ramblinman]

Ramblin: If we had 9-0s and 8-1s facing 0-9s and 1-8 ... what would Immaculate Recuperation do?

Depends on if they are the 9-0 or 0-9 team.

 

[lurker74]

Going from North/South to a 1-32 format would "help" this part of it, IMO. Look at 4A and 5A this year (its been like this for a while). The northern side of those brackets are completely lopsided as always. It doesn't make any sense to keep it this way. Everyone knows that football played south of I-80 doesn't compare to the northern part of the state anyway (subtle jab to my friends in the south LOL. Hopefully they know what subtle means LOL). However, beyond that, they should ALSO eliminate at least one class. Having 8 classes really waters down the state championships. If you had 7 classes, we eliminate another 32 teams, and additionally moving to 1-32 I think you would really see some competitive football throughout the playoffs. Again just opinions here...

All those things likely help, but there would still be a ton of blowouts.

I'm probably just bored at work this morning, but looking at the last 3 seasons of 7A and 8A (have 1-32 seeding).

Only counting from the qtr's through final. So the worst teams have been eliminated, and in theory, it's the best 8 teams left in each class.

42 total games:
7 one score games
13 two score games
22 games of 3+ score difference (52% blowouts in the qtr/semi/finals)

One semi-final, and no finals, were 1 score games in the 2 classes (18 games)

If I get really bored later, I can check some of the lower classes.

 

[micahjones]

And I m not picking on just Warren and the phrase battle rested.
Check out Normal which is 9-0 and looks like a powerhouse in 7a that is averaging 45 plus points per game.
Reality is normal has beaten up on 4A 5a and 6a teams all season. They are a solid 0-0 vs. 7a teams and a solid 0-0 vs 8A teams.
I would challenge anyone who says they are battle tested.
Obviously you can only play who is on your schedule.
I m only challenging saying a team is ready for a deep playoff run when their record against quality football schools their size does not really suggest that.

You ar emaking some good points. But the bottom line is ... outside of 3/4 8A teams over the last several years .... Warren is a top 8A program whether folks like it or not. Not sure how many 8A teams are signing up to play an unbattled tested Warren. Not sure who your team is but good luck in the playoffs.

 

[HotBeer]

- Maine West vs. Collinsville: Maine West with its first undefeated season in forever, albeit probably playing in the worst conference in the state gets a winnable draw against a 5-4 downstate team

Besides a few CPS conferences, surely Southland is the worst, no?

After Kankakee (Good) and Crete-Monee (fine), the rest of that conference is an absolute disaster.

 

[King MJ]

Besides a few CPS conferences, surely Southland is the worst, no?

After Kankakee (Good) and Crete-Monee (fine), the rest of that conference is an absolute disaster.

I'd disagree. Crete-M and Rich Township play some passable football and I'm sure would easily beat Niles West, Vernon Hills or Niles North.

 

[HotBeer]

I'd disagree. Crete-M and Rich Township play some passable football and I'm sure would easily beat Niles West, Vernon Hills or Niles North.

Rich township doesn't have a win outside of beating up on their own sorry conference... they do have a double-digit CPS loss and a Marian Catholic 49-0 shutout...

Similar dynamics in both conferences though, a very clear hierarchy with everyone punching down. Southland definitely has more talent at the top but I think CM and HP would be pretty evenly matched.

 

[kernal12]

Lockport at Maine South has to be the marquee 8A game. Rematch of 2021 8A championship, and two of the handful of teams that have won multiple state championships this century.

 

[SiuCubFan8]

Lockport at Maine South has to be the marquee 8A game. Rematch of 2021 8A championship, and two of the handful of teams that have won multiple state championships this century.

Lockport is just not on MS level this year, IMO.

 

[olderbytheminute]

You ar emaking some good points. But the bottom line is ... outside of 3/4 8A teams over the last several years .... Warren is a top 8A program whether folks like it or not. Not sure how many 8A teams are signing up to play an unbattled tested Warren. Not sure who your team is but good luck in the playoffs.

I

I don’t get the obsession for Naz either. They are 4-5. People need to stop focusing on the past. They literally got manhandled at home in a game that in normal years would have knocked them out of the postseason.

"They literally got manhandled at home in a game that in normal years would have knocked them out of the postseason."
Re: Nazareth, I suspect you are correct in every aspect except one.
"normal years."
This totally feels like the NEW normal year. Does anyone think that the number of high schools playing IHSA 11-man football next fall is going to increase from this year's total?
And what we've learned, is that with 256 qualifiers, and I believe just slightly under 500 schools playing this season, that it's basically a mathematical probability that some 4-5 teams are going to make the postseason.
What that actually means is that we now officially do not have an even playing field.
To wit: It is pretty much a mathematical near-impossibility for some 4-5 teams to accumulate enough "playoff points" (opponents wins) to get into the playoffs with a losing record.
Here's a list of teams from this season:
Genoa-Kingston (Big Northern Conference)
Hamilton County (Black Diamond Conference)
Burlington Central (Fox Valley)
Elmwood-Brimfield (Lincoln Prairie)
Macomb (Lincoln Prairie)
Rockford East (NIC-10)
New Berlin (Sangamo)
Bartlett (Upstate 8)
Clifton Central (Vermillion Valley)
Oakwood (Vermillion Valley)
These 10 schools have three things in common:
1) They all finished the season 4-5
2) They all play in 10-team closed conferences (no non-conference games for any league member)
3) They all ended the season with 41 playoff points, nowhere near enough to make the playoffs.
With 4-5 records becoming the norm for making the playoffs, teams that play in a 10-school closed conference have no choice but to finish their 4-5 playoff points and turn in their equipment the day after Week 9's game. The way to solve that problem is by spliting 10-team conferences into two five-team divisions. You. play four division games, three games vs. teams from the other division, and Weeks 1 and 2 you play whoever you want or whoever you can beat, as the case may be.
It's a way for teams with 4-5 records to accumulate enough playoff points to make the playoffs.
Currently, with a 10-team league and no non-conference games simply cannot even hope to make the postseason.
On another topic, the Chicago Public League could allow its Blue Division teams with 5 or more wins to be part of the playoffs. This year, that would have added 10 teams to the field and eliminated all the 4-5s and a few 5-4s, including probably several from the CPL Blue itself.
The line of people who think that adding Blue Division teams to the playoff field instead of the 4-5s who got in this year will improve the playoffs does not exist.

 

[SiuCubFan8]

When do you get to the point of just droping to 7 classes?

 

[4Afan]

When do you get to the point of just droping to 7 classes?

Hopefully soon. Or go back to 6 classes.

 

[dcaudle68]

When do you get to the point of just droping to 7 classes?

I would say as long as less than a dozen 4-5's get in nothing will change. If it gets to where an entire class worth of 4-5's (30+) is getting in, then something might change.

 

[King MJ]

Rich township doesn't have a win outside of beating up on their own sorry conference... they do have a double-digit CPS loss and a Marian Catholic 49-0 shutout...

Similar dynamics in both conferences though, a very clear hierarchy with everyone punching down. Southland definitely has more talent at the top but I think CM and HP would be pretty evenly matched.

fair point.

 

[olderbytheminute]

When do you get to the point of just droping to 7 classes?

I have no facts at all, but I suspect that the IHSA makes a lot of money on postseason. playoff games in gate receipts, especially in the quarterfinal and semifinal rounds where community people who are not fans might show up on a good weather Saturday to watch the home-town team at home. And supporters of the road team are motiviated to travel on a nice Saturday to root for their town's team.
If you eliminate one class, you are eliminating four quartefinal-round games and two semifinal-round games which are the biggest draws of the playoffs.
If you eliminate two classes, there goes the gate from eight quarterfinal-round games and four semifinal-round games.
And while on. this subject of IHSA revenue, there is always comment on this forum about the seeding from 1/32 vs. 1/16 ... the latter of which applies to 6 classes, and the former which. applies to the 2 biggest classes enrollment-wise which also happen to be the two classes which are overwhelmingly Chicago area teams.
I imagine the IHSA has game attendance data from all playoff games based on mileage that the visiting team had to travel to the contest.
And I suspect that they have found that there is a travel distance at which road-team attendance craters, and that is why we are playing 1/16.
And it's not the price of a gallon of gas.
Suppose, just to illustrate, a 4A quarterfinal matching Richmond at Murphysboro. Driving distance is 400 miles.
But .... if you live in Richmond, you can drive north for about 2 minutes and 12 seconds and be in Wisconsin where a gallon of gas is roughtly 50 cents less than it is in Illinois.
And when you fill up in Murphysboro for the drive back, you get the southern Illinois "discount" on fuel with prices as I write this at $3.40 a gallon.
So I don't think it's the cost of fuel. I think it's the driving distance and the IHSA has stats that show where the driving distance becomes too much for fans to overcome.
And I think that is why 1/16 continues to exist even when it's obvious that one half of the state in a certain class has way too many state-title contenders and the other half of the state has maybe one.

 

[Nevada Dude]

I got Saint Francis winning 5A.

I as well

 

[HotBeer]

I have no facts at all, but I suspect that the IHSA makes a lot of money on postseason. playoff games in gate receipts, especially in the quarterfinal and semifinal rounds where community people who are not fans might show up on a good weather Saturday to watch the home-town team at home. And supporters of the road team are motiviated to travel on a nice Saturday to root for their town's team.
If you eliminate one class, you are eliminating four quartefinal-round games and two semifinal-round games which are the biggest draws of the playoffs.
If you eliminate two classes, there goes the gate from eight quarterfinal-round games and four semifinal-round games.
And while on. this subject of IHSA revenue, there is always comment on this forum about the seeding from 1/32 vs. 1/16 ... the latter of which applies to 6 classes, and the former which. applies to the 2 biggest classes enrollment-wise which also happen to be the two classes which are overwhelmingly Chicago area teams.
I imagine the IHSA has game attendance data from all playoff games based on mileage that the visiting team had to travel to the contest.
And I suspect that they have found that there is a travel distance at which road-team attendance craters, and that is why we are playing 1/16.
And it's not the price of a gallon of gas.
Suppose, just to illustrate, a 4A quarterfinal matching Richmond at Murphysboro. Driving distance is 400 miles.
But .... if you live in Richmond, you can drive north for about 2 minutes and 12 seconds and be in Wisconsin where a gallon of gas is roughtly 50 cents less than it is in Illinois.
And when you fill up in Murphysboro for the drive back, you get the southern Illinois "discount" on fuel with prices as I write this at $3.40 a gallon.
So I don't think it's the cost of fuel. I think it's the driving distance and the IHSA has stats that show where the driving distance becomes too much for fans to overcome.
And I think that is why 1/16 continues to exist even when it's obvious that one half of the state in a certain class has way too many state-title contenders and the other half of the state has maybe one.

I think you might be overestimating the level of analytics going on in that dusty IHSA office building down in Bloomington...

 

[PowerI66]

Lockport is just not on MS level this year, IMO.

MS is a tricky one, in my opinion, because when they are on they are stellar. However, they have quarter or half lulls this year for some reason. That makes for very unpredictable outcomes

 

[RPG24]

The St. Francis disrespect here is crazy.

SF just manhandled Nazareth 48 hours ago (no disrespect to the Roadrunners)

Score was 35-17 final and 35-11 midway through the 4th quarter…yet Naz is the team that should be considered PR’s toughest test to the crown?

….You’d think McMillen has these boys playing in their pajamas the way some people are sleeping on them.

Ask yourself, what would WSF record be if they played Naz schedule

 

[LakeCtyNewt]

Ask yourself, what would WSF record be if they played Naz schedule

Well, they both played 7 playoff teams and SF handled Naz in head to head so I would say they would fair pretty well.

 

[USD24]

Ask yourself, what would WSF record be if they played Naz schedule

I would say 7-1, with a possible loss to York or Kankakee. No one else on Naz' schedule is better than St Francis

 

[MS4EVER]

MS is a tricky one, in my opinion, because when they are on they are stellar. However, they have quarter or half lulls this year for some reason. That makes for very unpredictable outcomes

I couldn't have said it better!! This is a scary round 1 game for me. We have history against them and it's not so good, but both teams are different. Hopefully Swagger High returns in the playoffs!

 

[sporthog9er]

Who has info on Hoffman Estates? After watching some film, they look legit. Might be more talented than LWW. QB and RB look like playmakers. Warriors may be in trouble.

 

[godfthr53]

I would say 7-1, with a possible loss to York or Kankakee. No one else on Naz' schedule is better than St Francis

WSF is a very good team but to say 1 loss I don't agree with. WSF lost to DGN who York handled pretty easily, They also lost to Fenwick. And I'd take Kankakee and BR so I'd say 4 losses and very battle tested.

 

[eagles2k3]

Who has info on Hoffman Estates? After watching some film, they look legit. Might be more talented than LWW. QB and RB look like playmakers. Warriors may be in trouble.

Speed, speed, and more speed.

Sellers is their best player IMO, but they also have Quincy Williams and Matt Lawson. All three are gamebreakers. Their QB Cleveland has a cannon and those receivers can get to the deep ball. Not a first round opponent I would want to see.

Their downfall? Defense. I can see LWW scoring a ton. They struggle stopping the run and are vanilla in coverage.