Gonna Give This a Shot…..Playoffs.

[LakeCtyNewt]

First off. Sorry, I tried. If you don’t agree that’s cool. This is based off of current records and does not reflect future projections. I am not that smart…..

8A
Lane vs Lincoln Way east
Oswego Vs Belleville East
Neuqua Valley vs Maine South
DG South vs York
Lake Park vs Barrington
West Aurora vs Palatine
Niles West vs Warren
Naperville North vs Huntley

Waubonsie Valley vs Loyola
Glenbard W vs Stevenson
Lockport vs Naperville Ctrl
East Aurora vs Glenbard E
St Ignatius vs Edwardsville
Lyons vs Sandburg
Minooka vs Joliet West
Bartlett vs South Elgin

7A
Brother Rice vs Mt Carmel
Whitney Young vs Buffalo Grove
Wheaton N vs LW West
Yorkville vs Batavia
W Chicago vs Quincy
St Rita vs Prospect
Hoffman E vs St Charles N
Jacobs vs Lincoln Pk

Argo vs Normal
Willowbrook vs Harlem
Collinsville vs LW Central
Kenwood vs Maine W
Reavis vs Hononegah
AT vs DG North
WWS vs Bradley Bourbonnais
Mundelein vs Hersey

6A North
Grant vs LZ
Libertyville vs Amundsen
Crystal Lk C vs Lake View
Highland Pk vs Belvidere N
Deerfield vs Mather
Lake Forest vs Hubbard
Rockford Auburn vs Wauconda
Senn vs Cary Grove

6A South
Eisenhower vs Kankakee
RB vs Geneva
Simeon vs Glenwood
Lemont vs Richards
Bremen vs Washington
Champaign Cent vs Crete
Bloomington vs ESL
Fenwick vs Normal W

5A North
Nazareth vs Sycamore
St Francis vs Lindblom
Kaneland vs Antioch
LaSalle Peru vs Payton
Noble Bulls vs PR
Joliet Catholic vs Carmel
Noble UIC vs Morgan Pk
Corliss vs Glenbard S

5A South
Marion vs Morton
Metamora vs Peoria
Benet vs Highland
Decatur Mac vs Hillcrest
Mt Vernon vs Mahomet
Carbondale vs TF North
Providence vs Dunlap
Troy Triad vs SHG

4A North
Noble/Golder vs Morris
Sandwich vs Evergreen Pk
Noble/Rauner vs Wheaton Academy
St Viator vs Boylan
AG Science vs Dixon
IC vs Rochelle
Coal City vs CVS
Ridgewood vs Richmond Burton

4A South
Taylorville vs Murphysboro
Normal U High vs Charleston
Manteno vs St Laurence
Salem vs Mt Zion
Freeburg vs Rochester
Lincoln vs Breese Ctrl
Plano vs Geneseo
Cahokia vs Carterville

 

[olderbytheminute]

FYI: lane tech WILL make playoffs.
Now all take a look at who it has beaten and still has to play.
That done, if your favorite team finishes 4-5 and is not in postseason, it will be clear that right place/right time is truly at play in 2023.

 

[Secondo1]

First off. Sorry, I tried. If you don’t agree that’s cool. This is based off of current records and does not reflect future projections. I am not that smart…..

8A
Lane vs Lincoln Way east
Oswego Vs Belleville East
Neuqua Valley vs Maine South
DG South vs York
Lake Park vs Barrington
West Aurora vs Palatine
Niles West vs Warren
Naperville North vs Huntley

Waubonsie Valley vs Loyola
Glenbard W vs Stevenson
Lockport vs Naperville Ctrl
East Aurora vs Glenbard E
St Ignatius vs Edwardsville
Lyons vs Sandburg
Minooka vs Joliet West
Bartlett vs South Elgin

7A
Brother Rice vs Mt Carmel
Whitney Young vs Buffalo Grove
Wheaton N vs LW West
Yorkville vs Batavia
W Chicago vs Quincy
St Rita vs Prospect
Hoffman E vs St Charles N
Jacobs vs Lincoln Pk

Argo vs Normal
Willowbrook vs Harlem
Collinsville vs LW Central
Kenwood vs Maine W
Reavis vs Hononegah
AT vs DG North
WWS vs Bradley Bourbonnais
Mundelein vs Hersey

6A North
Grant vs LZ
Libertyville vs Amundsen
Crystal Lk C vs Lake View
Highland Pk vs Belvidere N
Deerfield vs Mather
Lake Forest vs Hubbard
Rockford Auburn vs Wauconda
Senn vs Cary Grove

6A South
Eisenhower vs Kankakee
RB vs Geneva
Simeon vs Glenwood
Lemont vs Richards
Bremen vs Washington
Champaign Cent vs Crete
Bloomington vs ESL
Fenwick vs Normal W

5A North
Nazareth vs Sycamore
St Francis vs Lindblom
Kaneland vs Antioch
LaSalle Peru vs Payton
Noble Bulls vs PR
Joliet Catholic vs Carmel
Noble UIC vs Morgan Pk
Corliss vs Glenbard S

5A South
Marion vs Morton
Metamora vs Peoria
Benet vs Highland
Decatur Mac vs Hillcrest
Mt Vernon vs Mahomet
Carbondale vs TF North
Providence vs Dunlap
Troy Triad vs SHG

4A North
Noble/Golder vs Morris
Sandwich vs Evergreen Pk
Noble/Rauner vs Wheaton Academy
St Viator vs Boylan
AG Science vs Dixon
IC vs Rochelle
Coal City vs CVS
Ridgewood vs Richmond Burton

4A South
Taylorville vs Murphysboro
Normal U High vs Charleston
Manteno vs St Laurence
Salem vs Mt Zion
Freeburg vs Rochester
Lincoln vs Breese Ctrl
Plank vs Geneseo
Cahokia vs Carterville

 

[cigaros]

First off. Sorry, I tried. If you don’t agree that’s cool. This is based off of current records and does not reflect future projections. I am not that smart…..

8A
Lane vs Lincoln Way east
Oswego Vs Belleville East
Neuqua Valley vs Maine South
DG South vs York
Lake Park vs Barrington
West Aurora vs Palatine
Niles West vs Warren
Naperville North vs Huntley

Waubonsie Valley vs Loyola
Glenbard W vs Stevenson
Lockport vs Naperville Ctrl
East Aurora vs Glenbard E
St Ignatius vs Edwardsville
Lyons vs Sandburg
Minooka vs Joliet West
Bartlett vs South Elgin

7A
Brother Rice vs Mt Carmel
Whitney Young vs Buffalo Grove
Wheaton N vs LW West
Yorkville vs Batavia
W Chicago vs Quincy
St Rita vs Prospect
Hoffman E vs St Charles N
Jacobs vs Lincoln Pk

Argo vs Normal
Willowbrook vs Harlem
Collinsville vs LW Central
Kenwood vs Maine W
Reavis vs Hononegah
AT vs DG North
WWS vs Bradley Bourbonnais
Mundelein vs Hersey

6A North
Grant vs LZ
Libertyville vs Amundsen
Crystal Lk C vs Lake View
Highland Pk vs Belvidere N
Deerfield vs Mather
Lake Forest vs Hubbard
Rockford Auburn vs Wauconda
Senn vs Cary Grove

6A South
Eisenhower vs Kankakee
RB vs Geneva
Simeon vs Glenwood
Lemont vs Richards
Bremen vs Washington
Champaign Cent vs Crete
Bloomington vs ESL
Fenwick vs Normal W

5A North
Nazareth vs Sycamore
St Francis vs Lindblom
Kaneland vs Antioch
LaSalle Peru vs Payton
Noble Bulls vs PR
Joliet Catholic vs Carmel
Noble UIC vs Morgan Pk
Corliss vs Glenbard S

5A South
Marion vs Morton
Metamora vs Peoria
Benet vs Highland
Decatur Mac vs Hillcrest
Mt Vernon vs Mahomet
Carbondale vs TF North
Providence vs Dunlap
Troy Triad vs SHG

4A North
Noble/Golder vs Morris
Sandwich vs Evergreen Pk
Noble/Rauner vs Wheaton Academy
St Viator vs Boylan
AG Science vs Dixon
IC vs Rochelle
Coal City vs CVS
Ridgewood vs Richmond Burton

4A South
Taylorville vs Murphysboro
Normal U High vs Charleston
Manteno vs St Laurence
Salem vs Mt Zion
Freeburg vs Rochester
Lincoln vs Breese Ctrl
Plank vs Geneseo
Cahokia vs Carterville

I am uncertain who “Plank” is. Please elaborate.

 

[godfthr53]

JCA is further south than benet.

 

[Alexander32]

The Upstate Eight Conference would gladly accept those first-round assignments.

 

[FballDaddy]

Based on latitudes (which I know isn't 100% the way IHSA does it).....5a:

Seed	Rank	School	Latitude	Opponents'	Classification
1​	2​	Sycamore (H.S.)	41.99	32​	1,172.50
2​	3​	Crystal Lake (Prairie Ridge)	42.27	28​	1,214.00
3​	4​	Glen Ellyn (Glenbard South)	41.83	28​	1,096.50
4​	5​	Chicago (Payton)	41.90	27​	1,204.50
5​	6​	Antioch	42.47	21​	1,290.50
6​	8​	Chicago (Morgan Park)	41.69	39​	1,045.00
7​	10​	Mundelein (Carmel)	42.27	33​	1,074.50
8​	14​	Calumet City (Thornton Fractional North)	41.61	24​	1,272.50
9​	15​	Chicago (Lindblom)	41.78	20​	1,143.50
10​	16​	Wheaton (St. Francis)	41.86	36​	1,130.25
11​	21​	Chicago (Noble/UIC)	41.90	21​	957.00
12​	23​	Maple Park (Kaneland)	41.88	38​	1,326.50
13​	24​	Lisle (Benet Academy)	41.78	37​	1,271.50
14​	27​	Chicago (Corliss) [Coop]	41.71	28​	922.50
15​	29​	Chicago (Noble/Bulls)	41.90	25​	1,182.50
16​	32​	LaGrange Park (Nazareth Academy)	41.82	42​	1,180.58
1​	1​	Morton	40.61	33​	1,026.50
2​	7​	Mahomet (Seymour)	40.20	41​	996.00
3​	9​	Springfield (Sacred Heart-Griffin)	39.80	34​	884.40(*)
4​	11​	Country Club Hills (Hillcrest)	41.57	32​	1,175.00
5​	12​	Highland	38.94	27​	897.50
6​	13​	Dunlap	40.85	26​	1,340.50
7​	17​	Peoria (H.S.)	40.71	34​	1,270.00
8​	18​	Metamora	40.79	31​	923.00
9​	19​	Carbondale (H.S.)	37.73	28​	938.50
10​	20​	Joliet (Catholic Academy)	41.54	27​	965.25
11​	22​	New Lenox (Providence Catholic)	41.52	44​	1,296.08
12​	25​	LaSalle (Peru)	41.33	36​	1,210.00
13​	26​	Decatur (MacArthur)	39.85	31​	1,145.50
14​	28​	Troy (Triad)	38.72	28​	1,198.00
15​	30​	Mt. Vernon (H.S.)	38.49	24​	1,159.50
16​	31​	Marion (H.S.)	37.73	24​	1,134.50

 

[olderbytheminute]

I am uncertain who “Plank” is. Please elaborate.

Plano

 

[stl705]

Correct me if I’m wrong, and yes the line changes year by year based on the 256 team field, but generally South of I-80 is the N/S line split outside of Chicagoland for the higher classes 5A/6A (opposite for I-80 smaller class schools placed in North).

This would place LaSallePeru and any school South of it in South. Sterling would land in the North.

Closer to Chicago, South Burbs I see heading to South Bracket… ie Morris, Lemont, Providence Catholic. I’m pretty confident schools such as Benet and Glenbard South will be in the North brackets. The only schools I’m unfamiliar and unsure is the CPS schools, but my opinion is most if not all will be places in North bracket.

Again all hypothetical based on the 256, but seems this is where recent years have been.

 

[4Afan]

Correct me if I’m wrong, and yes the line changes year by year based on the 256 team field, but generally South of I-80 is the N/S line split outside of Chicagoland for the higher classes 5A/6A (opposite for I-80 smaller class schools placed in North).

This would place LaSallePeru and any school South of it in South. Sterling would land in the North.

Closer to Chicago, South Burbs I see heading to South Bracket… ie Morris, Lemont, Providence Catholic. I’m pretty confident schools such as Benet and Glenbard South will be in the North brackets. The only schools I’m unfamiliar and unsure is the CPS schools, but my opinion is most if not all will be places in North bracket.

Again all hypothetical based on the 256, but seems this is where recent years have been.

It's not a clean N/S line, but using I-80 is a good border to look at. Morris is always right on the border and can go either way. Schools like Sterling can go South because they're so far West it makes them closer to some of the southern schools versus the suburban or city schools. JCA is North of 80 but has gone South in the past.

It all depends on who ends up getting in and where they are located to determine what will be the N/S line and how skewed it may be.

 

[stl705]

CCL fans - Providence Catholic plays Benet week 9 as 4 win teams. If Benet wins, PC probably has enough playoff points to make it as a 4 win team. If PC wins, Benet season is likely over and it may open another spot for a 4 win team with higher playoff points.

 

[olderbytheminute]

CCL fans - Providence Catholic plays Benet week 9 as 4 win teams. If Benet wins, PC probably has enough playoff points to make it as a 4 win team. If PC wins, Benet season is likely over and it may open another spot for a 4 win team with higher playoff points.

Having just looked at the remaining skeds for Benet's 9 opponents, I agree with you. There don't seem to be very many "sure wins" by Benet's 9 opponents in the next two weeks, which is not good for Redwing fans, should the team drop two more and finish 4-5.

 

[stl705]

Looking through 4 and 3 win teams’ remaining schedules shows the following possibilities:

OUT (Under 5 Wins): 13 teams
Oakwood 1A
Litchfield 3A
Monticello 3A
Manteno 4A
Providence Cath or Benet 5A
LaSalle-Peru 5A
Decatur McArthur 5A
Naz 5A
Mundelien 5A
Brother Rice 7A
Bartlett 8A
Lake Park 8A
Waubonsee Valley 8A

IN (5 wins): 8 teams
Dakota or Stockton 1A
Tuscola 1A
Red Hill 1A
Illini West 2A
Sherrard or Monmouth Roseville 3A
Genoa Kingston 3A
Sterling or Moline 5A or 7A
Danville 5A

The difference is 5 teams OUT or under 5 wins from IHSA current predictions. Any team not listed above with 4 wins currently is considered IN.

For playoff points, I don’t expect there to be a lot of movement last two weeks, so will just use current playoff points:

Providence Catholic (loss to benet) 44 pts
Naz 42 pts
Brother Rice 42 pts
Chicago Taft 40 pts
Glenbrook South 40 pts (need 2 wins)
Quincy Notre Dame 40 (need 2 wins)
Bolingbrook (beat lockport) 40 pts
Plainfield North 39 pts (needs upset)
Sterling 38 pts
Woodstock Marian 38 pts
Oak Forest 38 (need 2 wins)
Fieldcrest 37
Effingham 37
Benet 37

 

[Alexander32]

Based on latitudes (which I know isn't 100% the way IHSA does it).....5a:

Seed	Rank	School	Latitude	Opponents'	Classification
1​	2​	Sycamore (H.S.)	41.99	32​	1,172.50
2​	3​	Crystal Lake (Prairie Ridge)	42.27	28​	1,214.00
3​	4​	Glen Ellyn (Glenbard South)	41.83	28​	1,096.50
4​	5​	Chicago (Payton)	41.90	27​	1,204.50
5​	6​	Antioch	42.47	21​	1,290.50
6​	8​	Chicago (Morgan Park)	41.69	39​	1,045.00
7​	10​	Mundelein (Carmel)	42.27	33​	1,074.50
8​	14​	Calumet City (Thornton Fractional North)	41.61	24​	1,272.50
9​	15​	Chicago (Lindblom)	41.78	20​	1,143.50
10​	16​	Wheaton (St. Francis)	41.86	36​	1,130.25
11​	21​	Chicago (Noble/UIC)	41.90	21​	957.00
12​	23​	Maple Park (Kaneland)	41.88	38​	1,326.50
13​	24​	Lisle (Benet Academy)	41.78	37​	1,271.50
14​	27​	Chicago (Corliss) [Coop]	41.71	28​	922.50
15​	29​	Chicago (Noble/Bulls)	41.90	25​	1,182.50
16​	32​	LaGrange Park (Nazareth Academy)	41.82	42​	1,180.58
1​	1​	Morton	40.61	33​	1,026.50
2​	7​	Mahomet (Seymour)	40.20	41​	996.00
3​	9​	Springfield (Sacred Heart-Griffin)	39.80	34​	884.40(*)
4​	11​	Country Club Hills (Hillcrest)	41.57	32​	1,175.00
5​	12​	Highland	38.94	27​	897.50
6​	13​	Dunlap	40.85	26​	1,340.50
7​	17​	Peoria (H.S.)	40.71	34​	1,270.00
8​	18​	Metamora	40.79	31​	923.00
9​	19​	Carbondale (H.S.)	37.73	28​	938.50
10​	20​	Joliet (Catholic Academy)	41.54	27​	965.25
11​	22​	New Lenox (Providence Catholic)	41.52	44​	1,296.08
12​	25​	LaSalle (Peru)	41.33	36​	1,210.00
13​	26​	Decatur (MacArthur)	39.85	31​	1,145.50
14​	28​	Troy (Triad)	38.72	28​	1,198.00
15​	30​	Mt. Vernon (H.S.)	38.49	24​	1,159.50
16​	31​	Marion (H.S.)	37.73	24​	1,134.50

I know this is just a projection with two games remaining in the regular season. BUT, if things did turn out this way, fate would not have treated Sycamore kindly. They would be facing Nazareth in the first round; the very same program that knocked them out of last year's playoffs with a 5-4 record.

 

[stl705]

Morris is very very close to 4A/5A and according to my projections will be dependent on if Red Hill gets to 5 wins and if Woodstock Marian gets a bid based on playoff points. If either or both happen, Morris is in 5A. My gut says one of these will happen.

 

[olderbytheminute]

I know this is just a projection with two games remaining in the regular season. BUT, if things did turn out this way, fate would not have treated Sycamore kindly. They would be facing Nazareth in the first round; the very same program that knocked them out of last year's playoffs with a 5-4 record.

that all depends on nazareth finishing 4-5 and not 5-4. At 5-4, it will be seeded above every other 5-4 team in its half of the draw and hence, won't be a 16 seed. If, however, it finishes 4-5 and gets into the playoffs which is iffy at this point with a 4-5 mark, then you likely are correct.

 

[4Afan]

Looking through 4 and 3 win teams’ remaining schedules shows the following possibilities:

OUT (Under 5 Wins): 13 teams
Oakwood 1A
Litchfield 3A
Monticello 3A
Manteno 4A
Providence Cath or Benet 5A
LaSalle-Peru 5A
Decatur McArthur 5A
Naz 5A
Mundelien 5A
Brother Rice 7A
Bartlett 8A
Lake Park 8A
Waubonsee Valley 8A

IN (5 wins): 8 teams
Dakota or Stockton 1A
Tuscola 1A
Red Hill 1A
Illini West 2A
Sherrard or Monmouth Roseville 3A
Genoa Kingston 3A
Sterling or Moline 5A or 7A
Danville 5A

The difference is 5 teams OUT or under 5 wins from IHSA current predictions. Any team not listed above with 4 wins currently is considered IN.

For playoff points, I don’t expect there to be a lot of movement last two weeks, so will just use current playoff points:

Providence Catholic (loss to benet) 44 pts
Naz 42 pts
Brother Rice 42 pts
Chicago Taft 40 pts
Glenbrook South 40 pts (need 2 wins)
Quincy Notre Dame 40 (need 2 wins)
Bolingbrook (beat lockport) 40 pts
Plainfield North 39 pts (needs upset)
Sterling 38 pts
Woodstock Marian 38 pts
Oak Forest 38 (need 2 wins)
Fieldcrest 37
Effingham 37
Benet 37

Are you projecting 13 four loss teams to get in? There was one last year.

 

[stl705]

Are you projecting 13 four loss teams to get in? There was one last year.

Not def not 13. I‘d need to double check the total #s, but could be up to 5 based on the above. I was just posting all the possible schools with highest playoff points at the bottom.

 

[olderbytheminute]

Not def not 13. I‘d need to double check the total #s, but could be up to 5 based on the above. I was just posting all the possible schools with highest playoff

In simple terms as of now, two 3-4 teams are in playoffs and all 4-3 teams are in.
In the next two weeks count how many 3 and 4 win teams get to 5 wins.
Add that total to the current number of teams with 5 or more wins.
If the total is 256 or more then no 4-5 team will get in
If total is 255 or less then 4-5 teams will get in to reach 256 total.
Right now no way to do better than guess.
After week 8 you will have a much better idea on whether or not 4 win teams qualify.
As of now every 3 and 4 win team in the state has a chance to make playoffs with 5 wins. That is somewhere around 153 or so 3 and 4 win teams.
That’s an impossible number to evaluate.
After week 8, all the new 5 win teams will be dropped from the 153 total and added to list of total teams with 5 or more wins and 3 win teams will be dropped because they can’t get to five wins.
At that point you can make an educated guess on how many 4-4 teams will win week 9. Add your guess to the total number of teams already with 5 6 7 or 8 wins and if that number is less than 256 then a 4 win team has a chance to qualify.
Under normal circumstances/years this discussion is silly because a 4-5 team will get flogged by a 9-0 team in playoffs so who cares?
But this year you have Nazareth 3-4 St. Rita 4-3 and Brother Rice 3-4 with a chance to finish 4-5, and because these are not your typical 4-5 doormats, this situation is more interesting than usual.

 

[Maj2023]

In simple terms as of now, two 3-4 teams are in playoffs and all 4-3 teams are in.
In the next two weeks count how many 3 and 4 win teams get to 5 wins.
Add that total to the current number of teams with 5 or more wins.
If the total is 256 or more then no 4-5 team will get in
If total is 255 or less then 4-5 teams will get in to reach 256 total.
Right now no way to do better than guess.
After week 8 you will have a much better idea on whether or not 4 win teams qualify.
As of now every 3 and 4 win team in the state has a chance to make playoffs with 5 wins. That is somewhere around 153 or so 3 and 4 win teams.
That’s an impossible number to evaluate.
After week 8, all the new 5 win teams will be dropped from the 153 total and added to list of total teams with 5 or more wins and 3 win teams will be dropped because they can’t get to five wins.
At that point you can make an educated guess on how many 4-4 teams will win week 9. Add your guess to the total number of teams already with 5 6 7 or 8 wins and if that number is less than 256 then a 4 win team has a chance to qualify.
Under normal circumstances/years this discussion is silly because a 4-5 team will get flogged by a 9-0 team in playoffs so who cares?
But this year you have Nazareth 3-4 St. Rita 4-3 and Brother Rice 3-4 with a chance to finish 4-5, and because these are not your typical 4-5 doormats, this situation is more interesting than usual.

I think we need to use some AI algorithm to figure this out😂😂

 

[4Afan]

In simple terms as of now, two 3-4 teams are in playoffs and all 4-3 teams are in.
In the next two weeks count how many 3 and 4 win teams get to 5 wins.
Add that total to the current number of teams with 5 or more wins.
If the total is 256 or more then no 4-5 team will get in
If total is 255 or less then 4-5 teams will get in to reach 256 total.
Right now no way to do better than guess.
After week 8 you will have a much better idea on whether or not 4 win teams qualify.
As of now every 3 and 4 win team in the state has a chance to make playoffs with 5 wins. That is somewhere around 153 or so 3 and 4 win teams.
That’s an impossible number to evaluate.
After week 8, all the new 5 win teams will be dropped from the 153 total and added to list of total teams with 5 or more wins and 3 win teams will be dropped because they can’t get to five wins.
At that point you can make an educated guess on how many 4-4 teams will win week 9. Add your guess to the total number of teams already with 5 6 7 or 8 wins and if that number is less than 256 then a 4 win team has a chance to qualify.
Under normal circumstances/years this discussion is silly because a 4-5 team will get flogged by a 9-0 team in playoffs so who cares?
But this year you have Nazareth 3-4 St. Rita 4-3 and Brother Rice 3-4 with a chance to finish 4-5, and because these are not your typical 4-5 doormats, this situation is more interesting than usual.

While no one loves a good playoff projection discussion more than I do, I think we need to sit back and wait until after this weeks games to see where everyone sits. The 4-5 teams making the playoffs is pointless until after week 8 and then see how many 4-4 vs 4-4 and 5-3 vs. 4-4 games there are in week 9. Buffalo Grove was the only 4-5 team last year and that was the first time it happened for an at large qualifier and now people here are talking about 5 or more 4-5 teams making it.

While I understand there are quality CCL teams that may end up 4-5, they could easily be bumped from the playoffs by a random 1A or public league team who wins their last game or two to get to 5-4 and be the 256th qualifier.

 

[EdgyTim]

I know this is just a projection with two games remaining in the regular season. BUT, if things did turn out this way, fate would not have treated Sycamore kindly. They would be facing Nazareth in the first round; the very same program that knocked them out of last year's playoffs with a 5-4 record.

When has fate treated Sycamore right? In all seriousness look at the several past seasons and look at who they've run into in the post-season.....

 

[SiuCubFan8]

The Naz/SF game is interesting because now SF is in but a few weeks ago they were not. I wonder how much being 7-2 rather than 6-3 means to them, i'm assuming they beat Leo? I'm not talking an IC type situation but a possible sit a kid that is banged up but could play if playoff where on the line. Just talking out loud.

 

[DMurph11]

The Naz/SF game is interesting because now SF is in but a few weeks ago they were not. I wonder how much being 7-2 rather than 6-3 means to them, i'm assuming they beat Leo? I'm not talking an IC type situation but a possible sit a kid that is banged up but could play if playoff where on the line. Just talking out loud.

I was thinking about this. It seems like a couple of the lineman are a bit banged up…do you consider resting them.

I think it also depends on Naz’s situation, if it looks like going into next week that they’re in the playoffs at 4-5 no matter what it might make more sense to rest some guys who may be hurting but not injured. However, if you can beat Naz week 9 and keep them out of the playoffs (avoiding having to turn around and play them again a few weeks later) I think the motivation is much stronger.

 

[FballDaddy]

While no one loves a good playoff projection discussion more than I do, I think we need to sit back and wait until after this weeks games to see where everyone sits. The 4-5 teams making the playoffs is pointless until after week 8 and then see how many 4-4 vs 4-4 and 5-3 vs. 4-4 games there are in week 9. Buffalo Grove was the only 4-5 team last year and that was the first time it happened for an at large qualifier and now people here are talking about 5 or more 4-5 teams making it.

While I understand there are quality CCL teams that may end up 4-5, they could easily be bumped from the playoffs by a random 1A or public league team who wins their last game or two to get to 5-4 and be the 256th qualifier.

Every year, people who don't fully do the math keep talking about all the 4-5 teams making it. I think people just forget how to math. You're spot on with at least waiting until after week 8. It's just kinda fun for banter to see "if it ended now" stuff.
FWIW, I do find it interesting how much the divisions seem to be pushed down (or up depending on your viewpoint). I follow Antioch, and they haven't been in 5A for years. Always on the smaller side of 6A. And for now they show in 5A and there are 3 schools bigger than them. Alot more bigger schools qualifying this year.

 

[FballDaddy]

I was thinking about this. It seems like a couple of the lineman are a bit banged up…do you consider resting them.

I think it also depends on Naz’s situation, if it looks like going into next week that they’re in the playoffs at 4-5 no matter what it might make more sense to rest some guys who may be hurting but not injured. However, if you can beat Naz week 9 and keep them out of the playoffs (avoiding having to turn around and play them again a few weeks later) I think the motivation is much stronger.

if you ever assume you're in at 4-5, regardless of playoff points, you're making one hellava gamble.

 

[stl705]

I agree it’s all math but imo, 4-5 teams in the playoffs are here to stay. Is it 1 team, 2 teams, 3 teams? Only time will tell, but based on the 28 teams and counting moving to 8-man football, this will be more than likely a constant moving forward.

 

[4Afan]

I was thinking about this. It seems like a couple of the lineman are a bit banged up…do you consider resting them.

I think it also depends on Naz’s situation, if it looks like going into next week that they’re in the playoffs at 4-5 no matter what it might make more sense to rest some guys who may be hurting but not injured. However, if you can beat Naz week 9 and keep them out of the playoffs (avoiding having to turn around and play them again a few weeks later) I think the motivation is much stronger.

You're talking about this like it's the last two weeks of the NFL season and resting players. Even if you already have 5 wins and are in you're still playing all your players and playing to win because there's an outside shot that 6-3 gets you a round 1 home game.

Being that it's only happened once, ever, there's no such thing as being in at 4-5 "no matter what".

 

[SiuCubFan8]

You're talking about this like it's the last two weeks of the NFL season and resting players. Even if you already have 5 wins and are in you're still playing all your players and playing to win because there's an outside shot that 6-3 gets you a round 1 home game.

Being that it's only happened once, ever, there's no such thing as being in at 4-5 "no matter what".

I don’t disagree but I could see where if a kid is real banged up and could really benefit. I’m not talking like rest starters.

 

[all4theillini]

For those who remember the mid-80s Little Seven…fun seeing so many teams represented:

8a: Oswego, Waubonsie Valley
7a: Batavia
6a: The Geneva Vikings
5a: Kaneland, Sycamore
4a: Morris

Just missing Plainfield

 

[4Afan]

For those who remember the mid-80s Little Seven…fun seeing so many teams represented:

8a: Oswego, Waubonsie Valley
7a: Batavia
6a: The Geneva Vikings
5a: Kaneland, Sycamore
4a: Morris

Just missing Plainfield

I really miss that conference. Why'd all you guys need to go and explode and get so much bigger than Morris? I'd like to see Morris renew some of these rivalries during out of conference schedule. While they wouldn't regularly win, most years they would be able to be competitive.

 

[olderbytheminute]

You're talking about this like it's the last two weeks of the NFL season and resting players. Even if you already have 5 wins and are in you're still playing all your players and playing to win because there's an outside shot that 6-3 gets you a round 1 home game.

Being that it's only happened once, ever, there's no such thing as being in at 4-5 "no matter what".

Come on. Playoff first-round game? Seriously, playing home or away is a distant distant distant second to quality of opponent, which is based basically on luck and can't be controlled whether a team is 5-4 or 6-3.
A team with either record could get an opponent from the Chicago Public League White Division and hang 50 on them. Or it might get an opponent from the Chicago Catholic League and trail 42-0 at the half.
Home/away? I even am baffled by comments this week about Huntley going for 2 down 28-27 with no time left on the clock "on the road."
In baseball, there is a distinct advantage in being the home team. Batting last is an advantage in that you know what you need to get in the bottom of the 9th/extra innings.
The Huntley situation was, running one play from the three-yard line for a win or loss as opposed to each team running four plays starting from the 10-yard line for a win or loss. And that doesn't even factor in the chance that the extra-point kick could fail. That I believe actually happened in a game this year at the prep level.
In high school football, there is a distinct advantage in going on offense last in overtime because you what you need to do.
But, going first in OT or last in OT is L-U-C-K.
Rather than gamble on luck, the Huntley coach went for it when the decision to play for the tie or go for the win was in his control. Where the game is being played. is really a non-factor at that moment.

 

[4Afan]

Come on. Playoff first-round game? Seriously, playing home or away is a distant distant distant second to quality of opponent, which is based basically on luck and can't be controlled whether a team is 5-4 or 6-3.
A team with either record could get an opponent from the Chicago Public League White Division and hang 50 on them. Or it might get an opponent from the Chicago Catholic League and trail 42-0 at the half.
Home/away? I even am baffled by comments this week about Huntley going for 2 down 28-27 with no time left on the clock "on the road."
In baseball, there is a distinct advantage in being the home team. Batting last is an advantage in that you know what you need to get in the bottom of the 9th/extra innings.
The Huntley situation was, running one play from the three-yard line for a win or loss as opposed to each team running four plays starting from the 10-yard line for a win or loss. And that doesn't even factor in the chance that the extra-point kick could fail. That I believe actually happened in a game this year at the prep level.
In high school football, there is a distinct advantage in going on offense last in overtime because you what you need to do.
But, going first in OT or last in OT is L-U-C-K.
Rather than gamble on luck, the Huntley coach went for it when the decision to play for the tie or go for the win was in his control. Where the game is being played. is really a non-factor at that moment.

In this instance the quality of opponent would be very similar as they would both be 6-3 teams. After this week the picture becomes much clearer and it will be very doable to project who a team may potentially face in round 1 if they finish 5-4 versus if they finish 6-3 and if being 6-3 would get them a home game.

That chance to have an extra home game or possibly your only playoff home game is a big deal, whether you think it is or not. Step outside your Chicago/suburban bubble for a second and look at the state as a whole. If a 5 win team gets it's 6th win in week 9 and has to face another 6-3 team and has more points, they get the home game. Now say the higher ranked team is right on the border of the north/south dividing line but ends up in the south bracket and the other team is down by St. Louis that home game creates an advantage.

Perfect example is 8A right now. If the season ended today #16 Glenbard West would host #17 Belleville East. Now given the chance, with a win in week 9, don't you think Belleville would do all they could to win and potentially make GW travel down to St. Louis for that first round?

 

[olderbytheminute]

In this instance the quality of opponent would be very similar as they would both be 6-3 teams. After this week the picture becomes much clearer and it will be very doable to project who a team may potentially face in round 1 if they finish 5-4 versus if they finish 6-3 and if being 6-3 would get them a home game.

That chance to have an extra home game or possibly your only playoff home game is a big deal, whether you think it is or not. Step outside your Chicago/suburban bubble for a second and look at the state as a whole. If a 5 win team gets it's 6th win in week 9 and has to face another 6-3 team and has more points, they get the home game. Now say the higher ranked team is right on the border of the north/south dividing line but ends up in the south bracket and the other team is down by St. Louis that home game creates an advantage.

Perfect example is 8A right now. If the season ended today #16 Glenbard West would host #17 Belleville East. Now given the chance, with a win in week 9, don't you think Belleville would do all they could to win and potentially make GW travel down to St. Louis for that first round?

You cannot control who you are playing. Your seed is based entirely on your result and the result of every other qualifier in your class.
When u play week 9 you don’t know who you will play in round 1 until all week 9 games are played.
And since you are talking about a 6/3 record you have no way to know who your opponent would or it’s record until after week 9.
Come on. You know this.
You are citing an example that a team doesn’t know exits until after week 9.
A 6/3 team doesn’t know it’s the 16 seed hosting the 17 until the regular season is done.

 

[epicbret]

Nazareth-Sycamore has a nice little history. Me likey

 

[4Afan]

You cannot control who you are playing. Your seed is based entirely on your result and the result of every other qualifier in your class.
When u play week 9 you don’t know who you will play in round 1 until all week 9 games are played.
And since you are talking about a 6/3 record you have no way to know who your opponent would or it’s record until after week 9.
Come on. You know this.
You are citing an example that a team doesn’t know exits until after week 9.
A 6/3 team doesn’t know it’s the 16 seed hosting the 17 until the regular season is done.

Then please explain why people like Steve Soucie correctly project all but a handful of matchups every year prior to the playoff starting.

It's easier in the larger classes that are seeded 1-32 because it removes the north/south division variable. going into next week there will be plenty of 8-0, 7-1, etc. teams that will be playing much lesser teams that won't be guaranteed wins, but there is a very high likelihood that those better teams will win and know in advance where they will be ranked within a seed or two should they win.

I'm not saying I'm able to predict the matchups, but there are those that can, and do every year.

 

[4Afan]

Nazareth-Sycamore has a nice little history. Me likey

Me too, just not in round 1.

 

[epicbret]

Me too, just not in round 1.

Always going to happen with Nazareth schedule. Running the table will not really be a thing for us, and I'm fine with that. It sucks because of these matches in the playoffs though.

 

[tuccs]

Always going to happen with Nazareth schedule. Running the table will not really be a thing for us, and I'm fine with that. It sucks because of these matches in the playoffs though.

While I completely understand this, I would appreciate it if they could just win acuppatootree more games earlier in the season so we don't have to run the table from week 4 or 5 onward haha

 

[FballDaddy]

Soucie is great, but "all but a handful" of the matchups before week 9...no. Predict all of the playoff qualifiers, yes. You have ONE surprise entrant push a team from 8A to 7A and the entire deck gets reshuffled for every division below it. Because they don't define the classes until AFTER the 256 qualifiers are picked, there is zero ability to know anything for sure.

And somebody made this point before, but it's worth emphasizing. Being a higher seed stopped being a big advantage when the CCL constantly is sprinkling 5-4/6-3 teams (that lost to big power schools) into the mid-level divisions. Look at 5A last year when Naz rolled through as an 11 seed. I'm sure Glenbard South was stoked about their 6 seed and 7-2 record until they saw that matchup.